{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_metals_cut_20_cl",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Metals supply -20%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "metals_cut_20",
    "spec": {
      "metals": -0.2
    },
    "units": {
      "metals": "supply_fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "CL",
    "name": "Chile"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.383125,
        0.536463,
        0.576826,
        0.563095,
        0.524487,
        0.475619,
        0.423889,
        0.373203,
        0.32566,
        0.282279,
        0.24357,
        0.209612,
        0.180236,
        0.155109,
        0.133801,
        0.115839,
        0.100742,
        0.088048,
        0.077337,
        0.068236
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.186557,
        0.29804,
        0.348593,
        0.359951,
        0.348594,
        0.325115,
        0.295897,
        0.264753,
        0.233952,
        0.204791,
        0.178022,
        0.153996,
        0.132809,
        0.114387,
        0.098548,
        0.085042,
        0.073592,
        0.063914,
        0.055734,
        0.048801
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.021713,
        0.030625,
        0.03039,
        0.025921,
        0.020386,
        0.01531,
        0.011217,
        0.008149,
        0.005971,
        0.004512,
        0.003589,
        0.003076,
        0.002868,
        0.002882,
        0.003046,
        0.003303,
        0.003605,
        0.003911,
        0.004192,
        0.004425
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.038909,
        0.085468,
        0.123071,
        0.146412,
        0.156156,
        0.15528,
        0.147129,
        0.134609,
        0.119961,
        0.104788,
        0.090155,
        0.076726,
        0.06487,
        0.054743,
        0.046352,
        0.039597,
        0.034316,
        0.030309,
        0.027358,
        0.025248
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -8.058217,
        -11.315305,
        -12.249158,
        -12.089468,
        -11.443264,
        -10.607594,
        -9.725545,
        -8.864032,
        -8.052454,
        -7.3018,
        -6.614363,
        -5.988223,
        -5.419649,
        -4.904241,
        -4.437489,
        -4.015033,
        -3.63279,
        -3.286997,
        -2.974214,
        -2.691318
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.061329,
        0.14226,
        0.223286,
        0.295928,
        0.357023,
        0.40594,
        0.443221,
        0.469942,
        0.487395,
        0.496915,
        0.499803,
        0.497266,
        0.490392,
        0.480138,
        0.467321,
        0.452628,
        0.436623,
        0.419762,
        0.402402,
        0.384823
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.162121,
        -0.356118,
        -0.512798,
        -0.61005,
        -0.650652,
        -0.647,
        -0.613037,
        -0.560871,
        -0.499837,
        -0.436617,
        -0.375646,
        -0.319691,
        -0.270291,
        -0.228098,
        -0.193132,
        -0.164988,
        -0.142985,
        -0.126286,
        -0.11399,
        -0.105199
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.871315,
        1.208601,
        1.289024,
        1.250603,
        1.160386,
        1.050845,
        0.937649,
        0.82859,
        0.727528,
        0.636093,
        0.55495,
        0.483945,
        0.422487,
        0.369721,
        0.324647,
        0.286223,
        0.253432,
        0.225331,
        0.201076,
        0.17994
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.123379,
        0.133511,
        0.135926,
        0.131811,
        0.123101,
        0.11169,
        0.099123,
        0.086525,
        0.074649,
        0.063943,
        0.054633,
        0.046784,
        0.040349,
        0.035212,
        0.031215,
        0.028177,
        0.025916,
        0.024256,
        0.023037,
        0.022119
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.085073,
        0.084316,
        0.081181,
        0.07613,
        0.069885,
        0.063129,
        0.056393,
        0.050037,
        0.044275,
        0.039209,
        0.034859,
        0.031195,
        0.028152,
        0.02565,
        0.023601,
        0.02192,
        0.020525,
        0.019346,
        0.018322,
        0.017406
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.050816,
        0.050035,
        0.048077,
        0.045168,
        0.041666,
        0.037915,
        0.034179,
        0.030644,
        0.027419,
        0.024558,
        0.022075,
        0.019956,
        0.018171,
        0.01668,
        0.01544,
        0.014406,
        0.013538,
        0.012796,
        0.01215,
        0.011571
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.089645,
        0.197801,
        0.29464,
        0.369759,
        0.421535,
        0.452046,
        0.464687,
        0.463105,
        0.450734,
        0.43059,
        0.405233,
        0.376754,
        0.346809,
        0.316663,
        0.287244,
        0.259194,
        0.232924,
        0.20866,
        0.186488,
        0.166393
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.005912,
        0.022984,
        0.052132,
        0.091774,
        0.139294,
        0.191902,
        0.247033,
        0.302507,
        0.35656,
        0.407822,
        0.45528,
        0.498229,
        0.536227,
        0.569051,
        0.596658,
        0.619143,
        0.636707,
        0.649628,
        0.65823,
        0.662868
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.02243,
        1.539666,
        1.483363,
        1.355204,
        1.206717,
        1.059972,
        0.923523,
        0.800512,
        0.69166,
        0.596343,
        0.513883,
        0.443076,
        0.382634,
        0.331228,
        0.287543,
        0.250345,
        0.21852,
        0.191096,
        0.167252,
        0.146313
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.005112,
        0.01281,
        0.020227,
        0.027003,
        0.033037,
        0.038337,
        0.042954,
        0.046957,
        0.050415,
        0.053397,
        0.055966,
        0.058182,
        0.060095,
        0.061751,
        0.063189,
        0.06444,
        0.065533,
        0.066489,
        0.067325,
        0.068056
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.715701,
        1.077766,
        1.038354,
        0.948643,
        0.844702,
        0.741981,
        0.646466,
        0.560358,
        0.484162,
        0.41744,
        0.359718,
        0.310153,
        0.267844,
        0.23186,
        0.20128,
        0.175241,
        0.152964,
        0.133767,
        0.117076,
        0.102419
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.832909,
        1.166259,
        1.258316,
        1.237308,
        1.16662,
        1.077237,
        0.983999,
        0.893717,
        0.809256,
        0.731584,
        0.660765,
        0.596475,
        0.538239,
        0.485547,
        0.437901,
        0.394839,
        0.355935,
        0.320805,
        0.289097,
        0.260495
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.045252,
        0.105351,
        0.165997,
        0.220804,
        0.267254,
        0.304714,
        0.333461,
        0.354209,
        0.367873,
        0.375428,
        0.377842,
        0.37603,
        0.370826,
        0.362969,
        0.353098,
        0.341753,
        0.329381,
        0.316344,
        0.302928,
        0.289358
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.52953,
        3.536963,
        3.808716,
        3.735829,
        3.511759,
        3.231232,
        2.939721,
        2.658219,
        2.395641,
        2.155028,
        1.936601,
        1.739329,
        1.561667,
        1.401922,
        1.258416,
        1.129567,
        1.013912,
        0.910119,
        0.816977,
        0.733395
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.015199,
        0.021438,
        0.021273,
        0.018145,
        0.01427,
        0.010717,
        0.007852,
        0.005705,
        0.00418,
        0.003158,
        0.002513,
        0.002153,
        0.002008,
        0.002017,
        0.002132,
        0.002312,
        0.002523,
        0.002738,
        0.002934,
        0.003097
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.231599,
        0.324295,
        0.348704,
        0.34042,
        0.317103,
        0.287589,
        0.256347,
        0.225737,
        0.197026,
        0.170827,
        0.147446,
        0.126933,
        0.109183,
        0.093997,
        0.081116,
        0.070253,
        0.061118,
        0.053435,
        0.04695,
        0.041437
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.040228,
        -0.0865,
        -0.125441,
        -0.153206,
        -0.169976,
        -0.177422,
        -0.177575,
        -0.172367,
        -0.16347,
        -0.152242,
        -0.139756,
        -0.126826,
        -0.114044,
        -0.10182,
        -0.090414,
        -0.079974,
        -0.070558,
        -0.062164,
        -0.054743,
        -0.048222
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001742,
        0.004039,
        0.006342,
        0.008412,
        0.010162,
        0.011577,
        0.012677,
        0.013491,
        0.014058,
        0.014411,
        0.014585,
        0.014609,
        0.014509,
        0.014309,
        0.014029,
        0.013685,
        0.013292,
        0.012863,
        0.012406,
        0.011931
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.231791,
        0.32456,
        0.34898,
        0.340673,
        0.317314,
        0.28775,
        0.256453,
        0.225788,
        0.197024,
        0.170779,
        0.14736,
        0.126815,
        0.109043,
        0.093841,
        0.08095,
        0.070083,
        0.060949,
        0.053269,
        0.046789,
        0.041283
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.486207,
        3.490753,
        3.778106,
        3.727772,
        3.527097,
        3.267802,
        2.99412,
        2.726804,
        2.475026,
        2.242248,
        2.029234,
        1.835412,
        1.659629,
        1.500505,
        1.356614,
        1.226572,
        1.109074,
        1.00292,
        0.907009,
        0.820347
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.009727,
        0.021367,
        0.030768,
        0.036603,
        0.039039,
        0.03882,
        0.036782,
        0.033652,
        0.02999,
        0.026197,
        0.022539,
        0.019181,
        0.016217,
        0.013686,
        0.011588,
        0.009899,
        0.008579,
        0.007577,
        0.006839,
        0.006312
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.005277,
        0.012241,
        0.01922,
        0.025491,
        0.030794,
        0.035083,
        0.038414,
        0.040883,
        0.0426,
        0.043671,
        0.044197,
        0.044269,
        0.043968,
        0.043362,
        0.042513,
        0.041471,
        0.04028,
        0.038977,
        0.037593,
        0.036153
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.013101,
        15.028218,
        15.043502,
        15.056648,
        15.067158,
        15.075251,
        15.082098,
        15.087402,
        15.090405,
        15.091355,
        15.089678,
        15.085529,
        15.079076,
        15.07066,
        15.060793,
        15.050009,
        15.038813,
        15.027655,
        15.016904,
        15.00685
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.038909,
        0.085468,
        0.123071,
        0.146412,
        0.156156,
        0.15528,
        0.147129,
        0.134609,
        0.119961,
        0.104788,
        0.090155,
        0.076726,
        0.06487,
        0.054743,
        0.046352,
        0.039597,
        0.034316,
        0.030309,
        0.027358,
        0.025248
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.017925,
        0.017601,
        0.016889,
        0.015863,
        0.014643,
        0.013341,
        0.012047,
        0.010821,
        0.009699,
        0.008699,
        0.007825,
        0.007073,
        0.006434,
        0.005893,
        0.005436,
        0.005049,
        0.004719,
        0.004433,
        0.00418,
        0.003951
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.009727,
        -0.021367,
        -0.030768,
        -0.036603,
        -0.039039,
        -0.03882,
        -0.036782,
        -0.033652,
        -0.02999,
        -0.026197,
        -0.022539,
        -0.019181,
        -0.016217,
        -0.013686,
        -0.011588,
        -0.009899,
        -0.008579,
        -0.007577,
        -0.006839,
        -0.006312
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.234421,
        -0.253671,
        -0.258259,
        -0.250441,
        -0.233891,
        -0.21221,
        -0.188333,
        -0.164398,
        -0.141833,
        -0.121492,
        -0.103804,
        -0.088889,
        -0.076663,
        -0.066904,
        -0.059308,
        -0.053536,
        -0.04924,
        -0.046087,
        -0.043771,
        -0.042026
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.382828,
        -0.379423,
        -0.365314,
        -0.342584,
        -0.314481,
        -0.28408,
        -0.253767,
        -0.225165,
        -0.199238,
        -0.17644,
        -0.156866,
        -0.140377,
        -0.126684,
        -0.115425,
        -0.106206,
        -0.098639,
        -0.092362,
        -0.087056,
        -0.082451,
        -0.078326
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.416688,
        -0.410286,
        -0.39423,
        -0.370375,
        -0.341664,
        -0.310899,
        -0.280271,
        -0.251282,
        -0.224837,
        -0.201377,
        -0.181014,
        -0.163637,
        -0.148999,
        -0.136775,
        -0.126606,
        -0.118131,
        -0.111008,
        -0.104929,
        -0.099627,
        -0.094879
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.322648,
        -0.316813,
        -0.303993,
        -0.285532,
        -0.263568,
        -0.240142,
        -0.216846,
        -0.194772,
        -0.174575,
        -0.156575,
        -0.140851,
        -0.127321,
        -0.115805,
        -0.106067,
        -0.097849,
        -0.090889,
        -0.084943,
        -0.079788,
        -0.075235,
        -0.071125
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        7.769196,
        10.905011,
        11.803759,
        11.650192,
        11.029224,
        10.226963,
        9.381011,
        8.555467,
        7.778246,
        7.059533,
        6.401254,
        5.80133,
        5.256042,
        4.761103,
        4.312172,
        3.905109,
        3.536072,
        3.201546,
        2.898341,
        2.623571
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -8.336068,
        -11.703311,
        -12.66719,
        -12.501356,
        -11.834643,
        -10.974567,
        -10.068914,
        -9.186362,
        -8.356617,
        -7.590138,
        -6.888843,
        -6.250158,
        -5.669838,
        -5.143072,
        -4.665015,
        -4.23109,
        -3.8371,
        -3.479248,
        -3.154121,
        -2.858665
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.012242,
        80.022297,
        80.02611,
        80.023663,
        80.016115,
        80.004875,
        79.991309,
        79.976809,
        79.962729,
        79.950113,
        79.939851,
        79.932482,
        79.92823,
        79.927059,
        79.928702,
        79.932742,
        79.938682,
        79.946,
        79.954193,
        79.962805
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        128.585998,
        140.026809,
        143.175279,
        142.431665,
        139.971682,
        136.860853,
        133.611651,
        130.46213,
        127.51497,
        124.806624,
        122.341908,
        120.111004,
        118.097902,
        116.284527,
        114.652699,
        113.185054,
        111.865441,
        110.679049,
        109.612413,
        108.653354
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.016891,
        100.031648,
        100.038808,
        100.037934,
        100.030166,
        100.017108,
        100.000446,
        99.981969,
        99.963464,
        99.946409,
        99.932024,
        99.921107,
        99.914065,
        99.910952,
        99.911528,
        99.915342,
        99.921814,
        99.93031,
        99.940193,
        99.950867
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.001119,
        4.002064,
        4.00249,
        4.002403,
        4.00191,
        4.00113,
        4.000169,
        3.999132,
        3.998114,
        3.997189,
        3.99642,
        3.995844,
        3.995478,
        3.995323,
        3.995362,
        3.995569,
        3.99591,
        3.996352,
        3.99686,
        3.997405
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.005439,
        100.009652,
        100.010796,
        100.008974,
        100.004804,
        99.998972,
        99.992068,
        99.984715,
        99.97755,
        99.971079,
        99.965721,
        99.96174,
        99.959251,
        99.95825,
        99.958626,
        99.960197,
        99.962741,
        99.96602,
        99.969804,
        99.973879
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.01144,
        100.021153,
        100.025637,
        100.024832,
        100.019659,
        100.011272,
        100.000807,
        99.98942,
        99.978226,
        99.968126,
        99.95983,
        99.953777,
        99.950157,
        99.948946,
        99.949943,
        99.952826,
        99.957209,
        99.962682,
        99.968845,
        99.975336
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2003.833146,
        2005.376025,
        2006.035678,
        2006.377902,
        2006.645347,
        2006.925098,
        2007.273328,
        2007.639141,
        2007.941681,
        2008.15777,
        2008.229683,
        2008.144768,
        2007.898722,
        2007.502088,
        2006.979419,
        2006.360112,
        2005.674845,
        2004.95296,
        2004.220733,
        2003.500432
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 0.5768,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 3,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.1809,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 1.289,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 3
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}