{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_metals_cut_20_id",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Metals supply -20%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "metals_cut_20",
    "spec": {
      "metals": -0.2
    },
    "units": {
      "metals": "supply_fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "ID",
    "name": "Indonesia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.030024,
        0.041995,
        0.043544,
        0.039483,
        0.0323,
        0.023463,
        0.013939,
        0.004558,
        -0.003992,
        -0.011238,
        -0.016875,
        -0.020786,
        -0.02297,
        -0.023556,
        -0.022757,
        -0.020833,
        -0.018062,
        -0.01472,
        -0.01106,
        -0.007301
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.01295,
        0.020795,
        0.024628,
        0.025482,
        0.024027,
        0.020825,
        0.016403,
        0.01132,
        0.00611,
        0.001206,
        -0.003062,
        -0.006488,
        -0.008962,
        -0.010473,
        -0.011079,
        -0.010893,
        -0.010054,
        -0.008718,
        -0.007036,
        -0.005151
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0201,
        0.02844,
        0.027718,
        0.023117,
        0.017387,
        0.011789,
        0.006823,
        0.002645,
        -0.000734,
        -0.003364,
        -0.005314,
        -0.006664,
        -0.007501,
        -0.007909,
        -0.00797,
        -0.007761,
        -0.007353,
        -0.00681,
        -0.006184,
        -0.005519
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.024402,
        0.052485,
        0.073655,
        0.084995,
        0.087247,
        0.082457,
        0.072845,
        0.060358,
        0.046556,
        0.032611,
        0.019362,
        0.007372,
        -0.003018,
        -0.011642,
        -0.01847,
        -0.023571,
        -0.027082,
        -0.029189,
        -0.030099,
        -0.030026
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.314388,
        -0.433158,
        -0.466692,
        -0.457681,
        -0.428253,
        -0.390047,
        -0.349229,
        -0.309081,
        -0.271331,
        -0.236838,
        -0.205971,
        -0.178775,
        -0.155161,
        -0.134902,
        -0.117701,
        -0.103228,
        -0.091139,
        -0.081095,
        -0.072774,
        -0.06588
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.004602,
        0.010335,
        0.015514,
        0.01945,
        0.021908,
        0.022871,
        0.022434,
        0.02078,
        0.018153,
        0.014831,
        0.011103,
        0.007243,
        0.003498,
        7.7e-05,
        -0.002863,
        -0.005214,
        -0.006916,
        -0.007952,
        -0.008343,
        -0.008138
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.101676,
        -0.218687,
        -0.306898,
        -0.354147,
        -0.363529,
        -0.343572,
        -0.30352,
        -0.251492,
        -0.193983,
        -0.135879,
        -0.080673,
        -0.030716,
        0.012575,
        0.04851,
        0.07696,
        0.098211,
        0.112842,
        0.121621,
        0.125411,
        0.12511
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.052612,
        0.064427,
        0.057649,
        0.044041,
        0.028499,
        0.013055,
        -0.001421,
        -0.014224,
        -0.024746,
        -0.032611,
        -0.037619,
        -0.039801,
        -0.039316,
        -0.036497,
        -0.031778,
        -0.02564,
        -0.018572,
        -0.011029,
        -0.003418,
        0.003924
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.067306,
        0.070075,
        0.067591,
        0.060804,
        0.051101,
        0.039818,
        0.028055,
        0.016641,
        0.00615,
        -0.003055,
        -0.01078,
        -0.016962,
        -0.021637,
        -0.024908,
        -0.026922,
        -0.027856,
        -0.027892,
        -0.027214,
        -0.025994,
        -0.024391
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.023562,
        0.020883,
        0.016871,
        0.011891,
        0.006449,
        0.001003,
        -0.004091,
        -0.008597,
        -0.012376,
        -0.01537,
        -0.017579,
        -0.019049,
        -0.01985,
        -0.020072,
        -0.01981,
        -0.019163,
        -0.018223,
        -0.017075,
        -0.015794,
        -0.014445
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.005241,
        0.004571,
        0.003207,
        0.001319,
        -0.000847,
        -0.003065,
        -0.005158,
        -0.007008,
        -0.008542,
        -0.009728,
        -0.010562,
        -0.011063,
        -0.011262,
        -0.011199,
        -0.010918,
        -0.010465,
        -0.009883,
        -0.009212,
        -0.008487,
        -0.007738
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.004704,
        0.010715,
        0.016397,
        0.020982,
        0.024133,
        0.025755,
        0.025896,
        0.024712,
        0.02244,
        0.01936,
        0.015763,
        0.011933,
        0.008125,
        0.004552,
        0.001379,
        -0.001279,
        -0.003357,
        -0.004832,
        -0.005717,
        -0.006055
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000637,
        0.004462,
        0.011999,
        0.022463,
        0.034627,
        0.047262,
        0.059312,
        0.069958,
        0.078621,
        0.084945,
        0.088767,
        0.090088,
        0.08904,
        0.085853,
        0.080829,
        0.07431,
        0.066657,
        0.05823,
        0.049371,
        0.04039
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.05551,
        0.06327,
        0.025491,
        -0.009111,
        -0.036613,
        -0.056799,
        -0.070705,
        -0.079018,
        -0.082273,
        -0.081113,
        -0.076114,
        -0.067975,
        -0.057332,
        -0.044927,
        -0.031494,
        -0.017711,
        -0.004176,
        0.008619,
        0.020291,
        0.030575
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000278,
        0.000594,
        0.000721,
        0.000676,
        0.000493,
        0.000209,
        -0.000145,
        -0.00054,
        -0.000951,
        -0.001357,
        -0.001737,
        -0.002077,
        -0.002364,
        -0.002589,
        -0.002746,
        -0.002835,
        -0.002855,
        -0.002812,
        -0.002711,
        -0.002558
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.038857,
        0.044289,
        0.017844,
        -0.006378,
        -0.025629,
        -0.039759,
        -0.049494,
        -0.055312,
        -0.057591,
        -0.056779,
        -0.05328,
        -0.047583,
        -0.040132,
        -0.031449,
        -0.022046,
        -0.012398,
        -0.002923,
        0.006033,
        0.014204,
        0.021403
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.028983,
        0.040601,
        0.044086,
        0.043864,
        0.042109,
        0.039845,
        0.037524,
        0.035295,
        0.033171,
        0.031119,
        0.029098,
        0.027078,
        0.02504,
        0.022984,
        0.020923,
        0.018878,
        0.016875,
        0.014939,
        0.013095,
        0.011363
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.006678,
        0.015458,
        0.024071,
        0.031384,
        0.036844,
        0.040227,
        0.041511,
        0.040842,
        0.038491,
        0.034806,
        0.030176,
        0.024989,
        0.019613,
        0.014369,
        0.009519,
        0.005257,
        0.001716,
        -0.001035,
        -0.002979,
        -0.004141
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.223464,
        0.313726,
        0.338613,
        0.333123,
        0.314443,
        0.290891,
        0.266393,
        0.242706,
        0.220536,
        0.200097,
        0.181378,
        0.164282,
        0.148674,
        0.134426,
        0.121418,
        0.109545,
        0.098713,
        0.088841,
        0.079856,
        0.071691
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.01407,
        0.019908,
        0.019403,
        0.016182,
        0.012171,
        0.008252,
        0.004776,
        0.001852,
        -0.000514,
        -0.002354,
        -0.00372,
        -0.004665,
        -0.005251,
        -0.005537,
        -0.005579,
        -0.005433,
        -0.005147,
        -0.004767,
        -0.004329,
        -0.003863
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.019739,
        0.027615,
        0.028737,
        0.026254,
        0.021792,
        0.016296,
        0.010377,
        0.00455,
        -0.000767,
        -0.005285,
        -0.008823,
        -0.011309,
        -0.012743,
        -0.013205,
        -0.012822,
        -0.011753,
        -0.010166,
        -0.008228,
        -0.00609,
        -0.003886
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.001126,
        -0.002419,
        -0.003447,
        -0.004066,
        -0.004261,
        -0.004075,
        -0.003579,
        -0.002855,
        -0.001992,
        -0.001072,
        -0.000172,
        0.000534,
        0.001056,
        0.001417,
        0.00163,
        0.00171,
        0.001677,
        0.001553,
        0.001359,
        0.001116
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000109,
        0.000251,
        0.000392,
        0.000517,
        0.000621,
        0.000703,
        0.000764,
        0.000808,
        0.000836,
        0.00085,
        0.000854,
        0.00085,
        0.000839,
        0.000822,
        0.000802,
        0.000779,
        0.000754,
        0.000728,
        0.0007,
        0.000673
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.014862,
        0.020787,
        0.021554,
        0.019544,
        0.015988,
        0.011614,
        0.0069,
        0.002256,
        -0.001976,
        -0.005563,
        -0.008353,
        -0.010289,
        -0.01137,
        -0.01166,
        -0.011265,
        -0.010312,
        -0.008941,
        -0.007287,
        -0.005475,
        -0.003614
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.101516,
        0.139889,
        0.150241,
        0.146583,
        0.136148,
        0.122758,
        0.108471,
        0.094443,
        0.081333,
        0.069489,
        0.059076,
        0.050124,
        0.0426,
        0.036405,
        0.031404,
        0.027442,
        0.024359,
        0.021998,
        0.020213,
        0.018869
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.006101,
        0.013121,
        0.018414,
        0.021249,
        0.021812,
        0.020614,
        0.018211,
        0.015089,
        0.011639,
        0.008153,
        0.00484,
        0.001843,
        -0.000754,
        -0.002911,
        -0.004618,
        -0.005893,
        -0.006771,
        -0.007297,
        -0.007525,
        -0.007507
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000381,
        0.000881,
        0.001377,
        0.001815,
        0.002179,
        0.002467,
        0.002682,
        0.002834,
        0.002932,
        0.002983,
        0.002998,
        0.002982,
        0.002943,
        0.002885,
        0.002814,
        0.002733,
        0.002645,
        0.002553,
        0.002457,
        0.00236
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.013101,
        15.028218,
        15.043502,
        15.056648,
        15.067158,
        15.075251,
        15.082098,
        15.087402,
        15.090405,
        15.091355,
        15.089678,
        15.085529,
        15.079076,
        15.07066,
        15.060793,
        15.050009,
        15.038813,
        15.027655,
        15.016904,
        15.00685
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.024402,
        0.052485,
        0.073655,
        0.084995,
        0.087247,
        0.082457,
        0.072845,
        0.060358,
        0.046556,
        0.032611,
        0.019362,
        0.007372,
        -0.003018,
        -0.011642,
        -0.01847,
        -0.023571,
        -0.027082,
        -0.029189,
        -0.030099,
        -0.030026
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001613,
        0.00141,
        0.000973,
        0.000359,
        -0.000349,
        -0.001076,
        -0.001764,
        -0.002371,
        -0.002873,
        -0.003261,
        -0.003533,
        -0.003694,
        -0.003756,
        -0.003731,
        -0.003634,
        -0.00348,
        -0.003283,
        -0.003057,
        -0.002814,
        -0.002563
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.006101,
        -0.013121,
        -0.018414,
        -0.021249,
        -0.021812,
        -0.020614,
        -0.018211,
        -0.015089,
        -0.011639,
        -0.008153,
        -0.00484,
        -0.001843,
        0.000754,
        0.002911,
        0.004618,
        0.005893,
        0.006771,
        0.007297,
        0.007525,
        0.007507
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.127881,
        -0.133142,
        -0.128422,
        -0.115527,
        -0.097092,
        -0.075654,
        -0.053305,
        -0.031618,
        -0.011685,
        0.005804,
        0.020482,
        0.032229,
        0.041111,
        0.047325,
        0.051153,
        0.052926,
        0.052994,
        0.051706,
        0.04939,
        0.046343
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.106031,
        -0.093974,
        -0.075919,
        -0.053511,
        -0.029019,
        -0.004515,
        0.018411,
        0.038687,
        0.055692,
        0.069163,
        0.079106,
        0.085719,
        0.089325,
        0.090322,
        0.089146,
        0.086233,
        0.082002,
        0.076836,
        0.071073,
        0.065002
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.042979,
        -0.037486,
        -0.026295,
        -0.010815,
        0.006947,
        0.025131,
        0.042298,
        0.057465,
        0.070044,
        0.079768,
        0.086611,
        0.090717,
        0.092346,
        0.091828,
        0.089527,
        0.085813,
        0.08104,
        0.075537,
        0.069592,
        0.063453
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.029037,
        -0.025378,
        -0.017507,
        -0.006459,
        0.006289,
        0.019375,
        0.031743,
        0.042669,
        0.051722,
        0.058705,
        0.063596,
        0.0665,
        0.067605,
        0.067152,
        0.065405,
        0.062634,
        0.059097,
        0.055035,
        0.050656,
        0.04614
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.406003,
        -0.577971,
        -0.624396,
        -0.615126,
        -0.583312,
        -0.544155,
        -0.504266,
        -0.466221,
        -0.430785,
        -0.397975,
        -0.367503,
        -0.339065,
        -0.312348,
        -0.287131,
        -0.263267,
        -0.240667,
        -0.219285,
        -0.199106,
        -0.180133,
        -0.16237
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.592239,
        -0.821164,
        -0.884724,
        -0.869569,
        -0.819632,
        -0.757021,
        -0.692598,
        -0.631411,
        -0.575495,
        -0.525176,
        -0.480451,
        -0.44071,
        -0.40535,
        -0.373733,
        -0.345227,
        -0.319285,
        -0.295449,
        -0.273346,
        -0.252681,
        -0.233226
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.012242,
        80.022297,
        80.02611,
        80.023663,
        80.016115,
        80.004875,
        79.991309,
        79.976809,
        79.962729,
        79.950113,
        79.939851,
        79.932482,
        79.92823,
        79.927059,
        79.928702,
        79.932742,
        79.938682,
        79.946,
        79.954193,
        79.962805
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        128.585998,
        140.026809,
        143.175279,
        142.431665,
        139.971682,
        136.860853,
        133.611651,
        130.46213,
        127.51497,
        124.806624,
        122.341908,
        120.111004,
        118.097902,
        116.284527,
        114.652699,
        113.185054,
        111.865441,
        110.679049,
        109.612413,
        108.653354
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.016891,
        100.031648,
        100.038808,
        100.037934,
        100.030166,
        100.017108,
        100.000446,
        99.981969,
        99.963464,
        99.946409,
        99.932024,
        99.921107,
        99.914065,
        99.910952,
        99.911528,
        99.915342,
        99.921814,
        99.93031,
        99.940193,
        99.950867
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.001119,
        4.002064,
        4.00249,
        4.002403,
        4.00191,
        4.00113,
        4.000169,
        3.999132,
        3.998114,
        3.997189,
        3.99642,
        3.995844,
        3.995478,
        3.995323,
        3.995362,
        3.995569,
        3.99591,
        3.996352,
        3.99686,
        3.997405
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.005439,
        100.009652,
        100.010796,
        100.008974,
        100.004804,
        99.998972,
        99.992068,
        99.984715,
        99.97755,
        99.971079,
        99.965721,
        99.96174,
        99.959251,
        99.95825,
        99.958626,
        99.960197,
        99.962741,
        99.96602,
        99.969804,
        99.973879
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.01144,
        100.021153,
        100.025637,
        100.024832,
        100.019659,
        100.011272,
        100.000807,
        99.98942,
        99.978226,
        99.968126,
        99.95983,
        99.953777,
        99.950157,
        99.948946,
        99.949943,
        99.952826,
        99.957209,
        99.962682,
        99.968845,
        99.975336
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2003.833146,
        2005.376025,
        2006.035678,
        2006.377902,
        2006.645347,
        2006.925098,
        2007.273328,
        2007.639141,
        2007.941681,
        2008.15777,
        2008.229683,
        2008.144768,
        2007.898722,
        2007.502088,
        2006.979419,
        2006.360112,
        2005.674845,
        2004.95296,
        2004.220733,
        2003.500432
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 0.0435,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 3,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.1219,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 0.0644,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 2
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}