{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_metals_cut_20_nl",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Metals supply -20%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "metals_cut_20",
    "spec": {
      "metals": -0.2
    },
    "units": {
      "metals": "supply_fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "NL",
    "name": "Netherlands"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.007568,
        -0.011159,
        -0.013967,
        -0.016462,
        -0.018745,
        -0.020812,
        -0.022681,
        -0.024223,
        -0.025271,
        -0.025765,
        -0.025636,
        -0.024899,
        -0.02361,
        -0.021855,
        -0.019738,
        -0.017372,
        -0.014862,
        -0.012304,
        -0.009778,
        -0.007353
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.004456,
        -0.007088,
        -0.00831,
        -0.008772,
        -0.008993,
        -0.009254,
        -0.009677,
        -0.010219,
        -0.010758,
        -0.011197,
        -0.011437,
        -0.011426,
        -0.011147,
        -0.010608,
        -0.009843,
        -0.008895,
        -0.007816,
        -0.006653,
        -0.005453,
        -0.004257
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.022692,
        0.027749,
        0.024697,
        0.018735,
        0.012368,
        0.006658,
        0.001956,
        -0.001705,
        -0.004418,
        -0.006319,
        -0.007548,
        -0.008235,
        -0.008496,
        -0.00843,
        -0.008124,
        -0.00765,
        -0.007068,
        -0.006426,
        -0.005763,
        -0.005105
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.015259,
        0.032169,
        0.044827,
        0.051647,
        0.05305,
        0.050193,
        0.044353,
        0.036672,
        0.028077,
        0.019273,
        0.010769,
        0.002912,
        -0.004083,
        -0.010099,
        -0.015099,
        -0.019099,
        -0.02216,
        -0.024363,
        -0.025808,
        -0.026599
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.002391,
        0.004129,
        0.005743,
        0.007231,
        0.008477,
        0.009372,
        0.009852,
        0.009882,
        0.009455,
        0.008604,
        0.00737,
        0.005818,
        0.004025,
        0.002073,
        4.6e-05,
        -0.001978,
        -0.003928,
        -0.005748,
        -0.007391,
        -0.008825
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000834,
        -0.002198,
        -0.004006,
        -0.006157,
        -0.008546,
        -0.011076,
        -0.01367,
        -0.016256,
        -0.018752,
        -0.021088,
        -0.023191,
        -0.025004,
        -0.02648,
        -0.02759,
        -0.028317,
        -0.028663,
        -0.02864,
        -0.028272,
        -0.027591,
        -0.026633
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.106815,
        -0.225183,
        -0.313792,
        -0.361532,
        -0.37135,
        -0.351348,
        -0.310468,
        -0.256703,
        -0.196537,
        -0.134911,
        -0.075383,
        -0.020381,
        0.028581,
        0.070694,
        0.10569,
        0.133696,
        0.155117,
        0.17054,
        0.180655,
        0.186196
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.02501,
        -0.044822,
        -0.061253,
        -0.073253,
        -0.080956,
        -0.085061,
        -0.086518,
        -0.085805,
        -0.08313,
        -0.078836,
        -0.073092,
        -0.066185,
        -0.058416,
        -0.050091,
        -0.041518,
        -0.032976,
        -0.024698,
        -0.016873,
        -0.009639,
        -0.003093
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.041021,
        0.042623,
        0.041011,
        0.036754,
        0.030662,
        0.023521,
        0.015984,
        0.008553,
        0.001581,
        -0.004698,
        -0.010153,
        -0.014725,
        -0.018414,
        -0.021259,
        -0.023326,
        -0.024698,
        -0.025466,
        -0.025722,
        -0.025557,
        -0.025054
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.012095,
        0.009989,
        0.007049,
        0.003504,
        -0.000341,
        -0.004203,
        -0.007865,
        -0.011172,
        -0.01403,
        -0.016393,
        -0.018252,
        -0.019623,
        -0.02054,
        -0.02105,
        -0.021206,
        -0.02106,
        -0.020666,
        -0.020075,
        -0.019332,
        -0.018479
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.002728,
        -0.003294,
        -0.004267,
        -0.005543,
        -0.006977,
        -0.008433,
        -0.009807,
        -0.011025,
        -0.012042,
        -0.012835,
        -0.0134,
        -0.013746,
        -0.013888,
        -0.01385,
        -0.013655,
        -0.01333,
        -0.012901,
        -0.012391,
        -0.011822,
        -0.011213
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000646,
        -0.001583,
        -0.002764,
        -0.004164,
        -0.00575,
        -0.007479,
        -0.009314,
        -0.011194,
        -0.013039,
        -0.014766,
        -0.01629,
        -0.017542,
        -0.018467,
        -0.019032,
        -0.019225,
        -0.019055,
        -0.018543,
        -0.017727,
        -0.01665,
        -0.015361
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.7e-05,
        0.00231,
        0.007153,
        0.013744,
        0.021122,
        0.028421,
        0.034977,
        0.040338,
        0.044243,
        0.046579,
        0.047353,
        0.046654,
        0.044633,
        0.041473,
        0.037379,
        0.032558,
        0.027214,
        0.021538,
        0.0157,
        0.009853
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.036033,
        -0.07065,
        -0.096655,
        -0.114169,
        -0.123341,
        -0.125604,
        -0.122845,
        -0.116235,
        -0.106633,
        -0.095031,
        -0.081987,
        -0.068153,
        -0.054055,
        -0.040137,
        -0.026783,
        -0.014286,
        -0.00286,
        0.007362,
        0.016307,
        0.023953
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00018,
        -0.000533,
        -0.001017,
        -0.001588,
        -0.002204,
        -0.002832,
        -0.003446,
        -0.004028,
        -0.004561,
        -0.005036,
        -0.005446,
        -0.005787,
        -0.006057,
        -0.006258,
        -0.006392,
        -0.006463,
        -0.006477,
        -0.00644,
        -0.006359,
        -0.006239
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.025223,
        -0.049455,
        -0.067659,
        -0.079919,
        -0.086339,
        -0.087922,
        -0.085992,
        -0.081365,
        -0.074643,
        -0.066522,
        -0.057391,
        -0.047707,
        -0.037838,
        -0.028096,
        -0.018748,
        -0.01,
        -0.002002,
        0.005153,
        0.011415,
        0.016767
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001047,
        0.001606,
        0.002154,
        0.002695,
        0.00321,
        0.003677,
        0.004096,
        0.004439,
        0.004674,
        0.004789,
        0.004775,
        0.004637,
        0.004388,
        0.004046,
        0.003634,
        0.003174,
        0.002688,
        0.002194,
        0.001708,
        0.001243
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        9.6e-05,
        0.000245,
        0.000442,
        0.000687,
        0.000976,
        0.001306,
        0.00167,
        0.002062,
        0.002468,
        0.002874,
        0.003265,
        0.003627,
        0.003948,
        0.004217,
        0.004429,
        0.004578,
        0.004665,
        0.004691,
        0.004658,
        0.004573
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0021,
        0.003551,
        0.004662,
        0.005425,
        0.005842,
        0.005932,
        0.005741,
        0.005306,
        0.004668,
        0.003884,
        0.003,
        0.002069,
        0.001135,
        0.000237,
        -0.000597,
        -0.001345,
        -0.001994,
        -0.00254,
        -0.002982,
        -0.003323
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.015884,
        0.019424,
        0.017288,
        0.013115,
        0.008658,
        0.004661,
        0.001369,
        -0.001194,
        -0.003093,
        -0.004423,
        -0.005284,
        -0.005765,
        -0.005947,
        -0.005901,
        -0.005687,
        -0.005355,
        -0.004948,
        -0.004498,
        -0.004034,
        -0.003574
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002817,
        -0.004277,
        -0.00577,
        -0.007313,
        -0.008835,
        -0.010269,
        -0.011595,
        -0.012719,
        -0.013534,
        -0.014002,
        -0.014079,
        -0.013777,
        -0.013127,
        -0.012184,
        -0.011011,
        -0.009677,
        -0.008246,
        -0.006778,
        -0.005321,
        -0.003918
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001173,
        0.002668,
        0.004299,
        0.005991,
        0.007698,
        0.009385,
        0.011023,
        0.012573,
        0.013975,
        0.015174,
        0.016113,
        0.016749,
        0.017059,
        0.017035,
        0.016687,
        0.016042,
        0.015138,
        0.014017,
        0.012729,
        0.011323
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000391,
        -0.000951,
        -0.001616,
        -0.00235,
        -0.003121,
        -0.003902,
        -0.004677,
        -0.005427,
        -0.006129,
        -0.006765,
        -0.007317,
        -0.00777,
        -0.008115,
        -0.008348,
        -0.008469,
        -0.008484,
        -0.008401,
        -0.00823,
        -0.007985,
        -0.007676
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        4e-06,
        1e-05,
        1.7e-05,
        2.5e-05,
        3.3e-05,
        4.2e-05,
        5e-05,
        5.8e-05,
        6.6e-05,
        7.2e-05,
        7.8e-05,
        8.3e-05,
        8.7e-05,
        8.9e-05,
        9.1e-05,
        9.1e-05,
        9e-05,
        8.8e-05,
        8.5e-05,
        8.2e-05
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.005661,
        -0.008347,
        -0.010447,
        -0.012314,
        -0.014021,
        -0.015567,
        -0.016965,
        -0.018119,
        -0.018902,
        -0.019272,
        -0.019175,
        -0.018624,
        -0.017661,
        -0.016347,
        -0.014764,
        -0.012994,
        -0.011117,
        -0.009203,
        -0.007314,
        -0.0055
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.0023,
        -0.003649,
        -0.004707,
        -0.005558,
        -0.006207,
        -0.006646,
        -0.006882,
        -0.006907,
        -0.006714,
        -0.006321,
        -0.005743,
        -0.005012,
        -0.004165,
        -0.003243,
        -0.002283,
        -0.001323,
        -0.000393,
        0.000482,
        0.001282,
        0.001993
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.003815,
        0.008042,
        0.011207,
        0.012912,
        0.013262,
        0.012548,
        0.011088,
        0.009168,
        0.007019,
        0.004818,
        0.002692,
        0.000728,
        -0.001021,
        -0.002525,
        -0.003775,
        -0.004775,
        -0.00554,
        -0.006091,
        -0.006452,
        -0.00665
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000491,
        -0.001196,
        -0.002033,
        -0.002956,
        -0.003925,
        -0.004909,
        -0.005883,
        -0.006826,
        -0.007709,
        -0.00851,
        -0.009204,
        -0.009774,
        -0.010208,
        -0.010501,
        -0.010653,
        -0.010672,
        -0.010567,
        -0.010353,
        -0.010043,
        -0.009655
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.013101,
        15.028218,
        15.043502,
        15.056648,
        15.067158,
        15.075251,
        15.082098,
        15.087402,
        15.090405,
        15.091355,
        15.089678,
        15.085529,
        15.079076,
        15.07066,
        15.060793,
        15.050009,
        15.038813,
        15.027655,
        15.016904,
        15.00685
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.015259,
        0.032169,
        0.044827,
        0.051647,
        0.05305,
        0.050193,
        0.044353,
        0.036672,
        0.028077,
        0.019273,
        0.010769,
        0.002912,
        -0.004083,
        -0.010099,
        -0.015099,
        -0.019099,
        -0.02216,
        -0.024363,
        -0.025808,
        -0.026599
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.001677,
        -0.001806,
        -0.002075,
        -0.002449,
        -0.00288,
        -0.003323,
        -0.003743,
        -0.004113,
        -0.00442,
        -0.004654,
        -0.004816,
        -0.004907,
        -0.004932,
        -0.004898,
        -0.004815,
        -0.00469,
        -0.004532,
        -0.004348,
        -0.004145,
        -0.003931
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003815,
        -0.008042,
        -0.011207,
        -0.012912,
        -0.013262,
        -0.012548,
        -0.011088,
        -0.009168,
        -0.007019,
        -0.004818,
        -0.002692,
        -0.000728,
        0.001021,
        0.002525,
        0.003775,
        0.004775,
        0.00554,
        0.006091,
        0.006452,
        0.00665
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.07794,
        -0.080985,
        -0.077922,
        -0.069833,
        -0.058258,
        -0.044689,
        -0.03037,
        -0.01625,
        -0.003004,
        0.008927,
        0.01929,
        0.027977,
        0.034986,
        0.040391,
        0.044319,
        0.046926,
        0.048385,
        0.048872,
        0.048558,
        0.047602
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.054425,
        -0.044953,
        -0.031721,
        -0.015768,
        0.001532,
        0.018915,
        0.035393,
        0.050274,
        0.063135,
        0.07377,
        0.082133,
        0.088302,
        0.09243,
        0.094727,
        0.095426,
        0.09477,
        0.092998,
        0.090338,
        0.086996,
        0.083156
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.02237,
        0.02701,
        0.034992,
        0.045454,
        0.057208,
        0.069152,
        0.080419,
        0.090407,
        0.098744,
        0.105248,
        0.109883,
        0.112716,
        0.113883,
        0.113566,
        0.111971,
        0.109308,
        0.105787,
        0.101604,
        0.096938,
        0.091946
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.030193,
        0.0325,
        0.037343,
        0.044084,
        0.051848,
        0.059823,
        0.067368,
        0.074037,
        0.079554,
        0.083781,
        0.086687,
        0.088317,
        0.088769,
        0.088171,
        0.08667,
        0.08442,
        0.081569,
        0.078258,
        0.074617,
        0.070759
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.081222,
        -0.11475,
        -0.124381,
        -0.122785,
        -0.116101,
        -0.107288,
        -0.097766,
        -0.088217,
        -0.078968,
        -0.070204,
        -0.06198,
        -0.054337,
        -0.047289,
        -0.040837,
        -0.034981,
        -0.029712,
        -0.025016,
        -0.02087,
        -0.017246,
        -0.01411
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.27546,
        -0.383876,
        -0.412289,
        -0.404658,
        -0.382902,
        -0.357601,
        -0.333517,
        -0.312449,
        -0.294709,
        -0.279733,
        -0.26711,
        -0.256117,
        -0.246165,
        -0.236759,
        -0.227481,
        -0.218035,
        -0.208239,
        -0.197999,
        -0.187298,
        -0.176172
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.012242,
        80.022297,
        80.02611,
        80.023663,
        80.016115,
        80.004875,
        79.991309,
        79.976809,
        79.962729,
        79.950113,
        79.939851,
        79.932482,
        79.92823,
        79.927059,
        79.928702,
        79.932742,
        79.938682,
        79.946,
        79.954193,
        79.962805
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        128.585998,
        140.026809,
        143.175279,
        142.431665,
        139.971682,
        136.860853,
        133.611651,
        130.46213,
        127.51497,
        124.806624,
        122.341908,
        120.111004,
        118.097902,
        116.284527,
        114.652699,
        113.185054,
        111.865441,
        110.679049,
        109.612413,
        108.653354
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.016891,
        100.031648,
        100.038808,
        100.037934,
        100.030166,
        100.017108,
        100.000446,
        99.981969,
        99.963464,
        99.946409,
        99.932024,
        99.921107,
        99.914065,
        99.910952,
        99.911528,
        99.915342,
        99.921814,
        99.93031,
        99.940193,
        99.950867
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.001119,
        4.002064,
        4.00249,
        4.002403,
        4.00191,
        4.00113,
        4.000169,
        3.999132,
        3.998114,
        3.997189,
        3.99642,
        3.995844,
        3.995478,
        3.995323,
        3.995362,
        3.995569,
        3.99591,
        3.996352,
        3.99686,
        3.997405
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.005439,
        100.009652,
        100.010796,
        100.008974,
        100.004804,
        99.998972,
        99.992068,
        99.984715,
        99.97755,
        99.971079,
        99.965721,
        99.96174,
        99.959251,
        99.95825,
        99.958626,
        99.960197,
        99.962741,
        99.96602,
        99.969804,
        99.973879
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.01144,
        100.021153,
        100.025637,
        100.024832,
        100.019659,
        100.011272,
        100.000807,
        99.98942,
        99.978226,
        99.968126,
        99.95983,
        99.953777,
        99.950157,
        99.948946,
        99.949943,
        99.952826,
        99.957209,
        99.962682,
        99.968845,
        99.975336
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2003.833146,
        2005.376025,
        2006.035678,
        2006.377902,
        2006.645347,
        2006.925098,
        2007.273328,
        2007.639141,
        2007.941681,
        2008.15777,
        2008.229683,
        2008.144768,
        2007.898722,
        2007.502088,
        2006.979419,
        2006.360112,
        2005.674845,
        2004.95296,
        2004.220733,
        2003.500432
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.0258,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0866,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.0865,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 7
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}