{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_metals_cut_20_no",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Metals supply -20%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "metals_cut_20",
    "spec": {
      "metals": -0.2
    },
    "units": {
      "metals": "supply_fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "NO",
    "name": "Norway"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00247,
        -0.003171,
        -0.004285,
        -0.006146,
        -0.008744,
        -0.011902,
        -0.015392,
        -0.018878,
        -0.022003,
        -0.024521,
        -0.026231,
        -0.027043,
        -0.026949,
        -0.02601,
        -0.024338,
        -0.022077,
        -0.019382,
        -0.016407,
        -0.013296,
        -0.010174
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002688,
        -0.003816,
        -0.003753,
        -0.00335,
        -0.003243,
        -0.003712,
        -0.004778,
        -0.006276,
        -0.007957,
        -0.009594,
        -0.010988,
        -0.012005,
        -0.012571,
        -0.012665,
        -0.012311,
        -0.011563,
        -0.010493,
        -0.009182,
        -0.007711,
        -0.006155
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.021575,
        0.027129,
        0.024666,
        0.019121,
        0.013046,
        0.007577,
        0.003106,
        -0.00033,
        -0.002835,
        -0.004566,
        -0.005679,
        -0.006313,
        -0.006587,
        -0.0066,
        -0.006429,
        -0.006138,
        -0.005774,
        -0.005374,
        -0.004965,
        -0.004564
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.019547,
        0.041202,
        0.057338,
        0.065921,
        0.067532,
        0.063698,
        0.056093,
        0.0462,
        0.035223,
        0.024068,
        0.013385,
        0.003613,
        -0.00498,
        -0.012255,
        -0.018178,
        -0.022785,
        -0.026163,
        -0.028435,
        -0.029741,
        -0.030227
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.291796,
        -0.410896,
        -0.444218,
        -0.435783,
        -0.407777,
        -0.371362,
        -0.332168,
        -0.293147,
        -0.255932,
        -0.221406,
        -0.190097,
        -0.16225,
        -0.13791,
        -0.116983,
        -0.099257,
        -0.084451,
        -0.072239,
        -0.062282,
        -0.054246,
        -0.047815
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00025,
        -0.000762,
        -0.001584,
        -0.002718,
        -0.004147,
        -0.005847,
        -0.007787,
        -0.009919,
        -0.012173,
        -0.014467,
        -0.016712,
        -0.018816,
        -0.020698,
        -0.022288,
        -0.023536,
        -0.024409,
        -0.024891,
        -0.024986,
        -0.02471,
        -0.024092
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.12217,
        -0.257513,
        -0.358361,
        -0.412008,
        -0.422073,
        -0.398115,
        -0.350579,
        -0.288753,
        -0.220146,
        -0.150422,
        -0.083653,
        -0.022579,
        0.031123,
        0.076597,
        0.113614,
        0.142404,
        0.163521,
        0.177721,
        0.185879,
        0.188917
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012302,
        -0.025746,
        -0.038011,
        -0.047604,
        -0.054542,
        -0.059318,
        -0.062486,
        -0.064253,
        -0.064606,
        -0.063568,
        -0.061109,
        -0.057298,
        -0.052278,
        -0.046256,
        -0.039491,
        -0.032258,
        -0.02483,
        -0.017453,
        -0.010343,
        -0.003671
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.052191,
        0.054151,
        0.052009,
        0.046515,
        0.038726,
        0.029662,
        0.020168,
        0.010884,
        0.002261,
        -0.005412,
        -0.011975,
        -0.017366,
        -0.021596,
        -0.024728,
        -0.026861,
        -0.028112,
        -0.028608,
        -0.02848,
        -0.02785,
        -0.026833
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.016053,
        0.013573,
        0.010048,
        0.005771,
        0.001137,
        -0.003496,
        -0.007851,
        -0.011736,
        -0.015037,
        -0.017702,
        -0.019726,
        -0.021136,
        -0.021984,
        -0.022333,
        -0.022256,
        -0.021824,
        -0.02111,
        -0.02018,
        -0.019093,
        -0.017902
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.0003,
        -0.000903,
        -0.002035,
        -0.003557,
        -0.005282,
        -0.007038,
        -0.008689,
        -0.010141,
        -0.01134,
        -0.012257,
        -0.01289,
        -0.01325,
        -0.013362,
        -0.013255,
        -0.012963,
        -0.012519,
        -0.011958,
        -0.01131,
        -0.010603,
        -0.009861
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000213,
        0.000499,
        0.000629,
        0.000421,
        -0.000243,
        -0.001417,
        -0.003093,
        -0.005203,
        -0.007617,
        -0.010181,
        -0.012723,
        -0.015084,
        -0.017123,
        -0.018735,
        -0.019848,
        -0.02043,
        -0.020479,
        -0.020024,
        -0.019114,
        -0.017813
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        9e-06,
        0.002347,
        0.00724,
        0.013994,
        0.021669,
        0.029402,
        0.036514,
        0.042542,
        0.047204,
        0.050373,
        0.052036,
        0.052265,
        0.051185,
        0.048961,
        0.045772,
        0.041806,
        0.037248,
        0.032271,
        0.027034,
        0.021679
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.028199,
        -0.058961,
        -0.086636,
        -0.106076,
        -0.117385,
        -0.122004,
        -0.121661,
        -0.117485,
        -0.110251,
        -0.100724,
        -0.089371,
        -0.076706,
        -0.063201,
        -0.049301,
        -0.035437,
        -0.021991,
        -0.009283,
        0.002433,
        0.012973,
        0.022219
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000141,
        -0.000436,
        -0.000869,
        -0.001399,
        -0.001986,
        -0.002596,
        -0.003205,
        -0.003792,
        -0.004343,
        -0.004847,
        -0.005294,
        -0.005677,
        -0.005993,
        -0.00624,
        -0.006417,
        -0.006527,
        -0.006573,
        -0.006561,
        -0.006496,
        -0.006385
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.019739,
        -0.041273,
        -0.060645,
        -0.074253,
        -0.08217,
        -0.085403,
        -0.085163,
        -0.08224,
        -0.077176,
        -0.070507,
        -0.062559,
        -0.053694,
        -0.044241,
        -0.034511,
        -0.024806,
        -0.015393,
        -0.006498,
        0.001703,
        0.009081,
        0.015554
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000948,
        0.0017,
        0.002191,
        0.002396,
        0.002364,
        0.002155,
        0.001824,
        0.001411,
        0.000952,
        0.000483,
        3.5e-05,
        -0.000366,
        -0.000701,
        -0.00096,
        -0.001142,
        -0.001251,
        -0.001296,
        -0.001287,
        -0.001235,
        -0.001153
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.9e-05,
        -9.4e-05,
        -0.000127,
        -0.000101,
        1.3e-05,
        0.000232,
        0.000565,
        0.001006,
        0.001539,
        0.00214,
        0.002779,
        0.003424,
        0.004043,
        0.00461,
        0.005103,
        0.005504,
        0.005804,
        0.005997,
        0.006084,
        0.006069
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.002122,
        0.003878,
        0.004618,
        0.004325,
        0.003205,
        0.001508,
        -0.000526,
        -0.002669,
        -0.004707,
        -0.006481,
        -0.007859,
        -0.008767,
        -0.009181,
        -0.009117,
        -0.008628,
        -0.007787,
        -0.006682,
        -0.005399,
        -0.00402,
        -0.002619
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.015102,
        0.01899,
        0.017266,
        0.013385,
        0.009132,
        0.005304,
        0.002174,
        -0.000231,
        -0.001985,
        -0.003196,
        -0.003975,
        -0.004419,
        -0.004611,
        -0.00462,
        -0.004501,
        -0.004297,
        -0.004042,
        -0.003762,
        -0.003475,
        -0.003195
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.00024,
        0.000512,
        3.5e-05,
        -0.001127,
        -0.002837,
        -0.004924,
        -0.00722,
        -0.009508,
        -0.011568,
        -0.013248,
        -0.014427,
        -0.015053,
        -0.01512,
        -0.014666,
        -0.01376,
        -0.01249,
        -0.010949,
        -0.009232,
        -0.007425,
        -0.005605
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000383,
        0.000798,
        0.001302,
        0.001995,
        0.002951,
        0.004205,
        0.00575,
        0.007526,
        0.009431,
        0.011346,
        0.013142,
        0.014706,
        0.015941,
        0.016785,
        0.0172,
        0.017182,
        0.01675,
        0.015943,
        0.014815,
        0.013429
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3e-05,
        -6.7e-05,
        -0.000114,
        -0.000173,
        -0.000279,
        -0.000461,
        -0.000722,
        -0.001053,
        -0.001439,
        -0.001861,
        -0.002295,
        -0.002718,
        -0.003111,
        -0.003455,
        -0.003739,
        -0.003953,
        -0.004093,
        -0.004159,
        -0.004155,
        -0.004086
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        1e-06,
        1e-06,
        2e-06,
        4e-06,
        6e-06,
        9e-06,
        1.4e-05,
        1.9e-05,
        2.4e-05,
        3e-05,
        3.5e-05,
        4.1e-05,
        4.5e-05,
        4.9e-05,
        5.2e-05,
        5.3e-05,
        5.4e-05,
        5.4e-05,
        5.3e-05
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.001413,
        -0.001814,
        -0.002451,
        -0.003515,
        -0.005001,
        -0.006808,
        -0.008804,
        -0.010798,
        -0.012586,
        -0.014026,
        -0.015004,
        -0.015468,
        -0.015415,
        -0.014878,
        -0.013921,
        -0.012628,
        -0.011086,
        -0.009385,
        -0.007605,
        -0.005819
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.086874,
        0.122297,
        0.132024,
        0.129203,
        0.120469,
        0.109178,
        0.097036,
        0.084963,
        0.07349,
        0.062906,
        0.05339,
        0.045023,
        0.037814,
        0.031726,
        0.02668,
        0.022572,
        0.019287,
        0.016703,
        0.014705,
        0.013183
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.004887,
        0.010301,
        0.014334,
        0.01648,
        0.016883,
        0.015925,
        0.014023,
        0.01155,
        0.008806,
        0.006017,
        0.003346,
        0.000903,
        -0.001245,
        -0.003064,
        -0.004545,
        -0.005696,
        -0.006541,
        -0.007109,
        -0.007435,
        -0.007557
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.8e-05,
        -8.5e-05,
        -0.000143,
        -0.000217,
        -0.00035,
        -0.00058,
        -0.000908,
        -0.001324,
        -0.00181,
        -0.002339,
        -0.002885,
        -0.003417,
        -0.003911,
        -0.004344,
        -0.004701,
        -0.004969,
        -0.005146,
        -0.005229,
        -0.005224,
        -0.005137
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.013101,
        15.028218,
        15.043502,
        15.056648,
        15.067158,
        15.075251,
        15.082098,
        15.087402,
        15.090405,
        15.091355,
        15.089678,
        15.085529,
        15.079076,
        15.07066,
        15.060793,
        15.050009,
        15.038813,
        15.027655,
        15.016904,
        15.00685
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.019547,
        0.041202,
        0.057338,
        0.065921,
        0.067532,
        0.063698,
        0.056093,
        0.0462,
        0.035223,
        0.024068,
        0.013385,
        0.003613,
        -0.00498,
        -0.012255,
        -0.018178,
        -0.022785,
        -0.026163,
        -0.028435,
        -0.029741,
        -0.030227
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000295,
        -0.000458,
        -0.000801,
        -0.001278,
        -0.001828,
        -0.00239,
        -0.002921,
        -0.003388,
        -0.003773,
        -0.004066,
        -0.004267,
        -0.004378,
        -0.004408,
        -0.004367,
        -0.004264,
        -0.004113,
        -0.003923,
        -0.003705,
        -0.003468,
        -0.00322
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.004887,
        -0.010301,
        -0.014334,
        -0.01648,
        -0.016883,
        -0.015925,
        -0.014023,
        -0.01155,
        -0.008806,
        -0.006017,
        -0.003346,
        -0.000903,
        0.001245,
        0.003064,
        0.004545,
        0.005696,
        0.006541,
        0.007109,
        0.007435,
        0.007557
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.099164,
        -0.102887,
        -0.098817,
        -0.088379,
        -0.07358,
        -0.056359,
        -0.03832,
        -0.02068,
        -0.004296,
        0.010283,
        0.022752,
        0.032995,
        0.041031,
        0.046983,
        0.051035,
        0.053412,
        0.054356,
        0.054112,
        0.052915,
        0.050983
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.072237,
        -0.061081,
        -0.045214,
        -0.025971,
        -0.005118,
        0.015732,
        0.035328,
        0.052811,
        0.067666,
        0.079659,
        0.088766,
        0.095112,
        0.098927,
        0.100499,
        0.100151,
        0.09821,
        0.094996,
        0.090809,
        0.085917,
        0.080558
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.002456,
        0.007408,
        0.016683,
        0.029164,
        0.043313,
        0.05771,
        0.071247,
        0.083159,
        0.092984,
        0.100507,
        0.105696,
        0.108653,
        0.10957,
        0.108693,
        0.106296,
        0.102659,
        0.098056,
        0.092741,
        0.086943,
        0.080864
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.005307,
        0.008236,
        0.014413,
        0.023011,
        0.032896,
        0.043023,
        0.052575,
        0.060987,
        0.067915,
        0.073196,
        0.076804,
        0.078809,
        0.079349,
        0.0786,
        0.07676,
        0.074031,
        0.070611,
        0.066685,
        0.062418,
        0.057955
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.144452,
        -0.201596,
        -0.217507,
        -0.215482,
        -0.206579,
        -0.195935,
        -0.185796,
        -0.176918,
        -0.169305,
        -0.162695,
        -0.156661,
        -0.150822,
        -0.14488,
        -0.138633,
        -0.13199,
        -0.124939,
        -0.117531,
        -0.109855,
        -0.102017,
        -0.09413
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.569647,
        -0.798902,
        -0.86225,
        -0.847671,
        -0.799156,
        -0.738335,
        -0.675537,
        -0.615477,
        -0.560096,
        -0.509744,
        -0.464577,
        -0.424185,
        -0.388099,
        -0.355814,
        -0.326783,
        -0.300508,
        -0.276549,
        -0.254533,
        -0.234152,
        -0.215162
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.012242,
        80.022297,
        80.02611,
        80.023663,
        80.016115,
        80.004875,
        79.991309,
        79.976809,
        79.962729,
        79.950113,
        79.939851,
        79.932482,
        79.92823,
        79.927059,
        79.928702,
        79.932742,
        79.938682,
        79.946,
        79.954193,
        79.962805
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        128.585998,
        140.026809,
        143.175279,
        142.431665,
        139.971682,
        136.860853,
        133.611651,
        130.46213,
        127.51497,
        124.806624,
        122.341908,
        120.111004,
        118.097902,
        116.284527,
        114.652699,
        113.185054,
        111.865441,
        110.679049,
        109.612413,
        108.653354
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.016891,
        100.031648,
        100.038808,
        100.037934,
        100.030166,
        100.017108,
        100.000446,
        99.981969,
        99.963464,
        99.946409,
        99.932024,
        99.921107,
        99.914065,
        99.910952,
        99.911528,
        99.915342,
        99.921814,
        99.93031,
        99.940193,
        99.950867
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.001119,
        4.002064,
        4.00249,
        4.002403,
        4.00191,
        4.00113,
        4.000169,
        3.999132,
        3.998114,
        3.997189,
        3.99642,
        3.995844,
        3.995478,
        3.995323,
        3.995362,
        3.995569,
        3.99591,
        3.996352,
        3.99686,
        3.997405
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.005439,
        100.009652,
        100.010796,
        100.008974,
        100.004804,
        99.998972,
        99.992068,
        99.984715,
        99.97755,
        99.971079,
        99.965721,
        99.96174,
        99.959251,
        99.95825,
        99.958626,
        99.960197,
        99.962741,
        99.96602,
        99.969804,
        99.973879
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.01144,
        100.021153,
        100.025637,
        100.024832,
        100.019659,
        100.011272,
        100.000807,
        99.98942,
        99.978226,
        99.968126,
        99.95983,
        99.953777,
        99.950157,
        99.948946,
        99.949943,
        99.952826,
        99.957209,
        99.962682,
        99.968845,
        99.975336
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2003.833146,
        2005.376025,
        2006.035678,
        2006.377902,
        2006.645347,
        2006.925098,
        2007.273328,
        2007.639141,
        2007.941681,
        2008.15777,
        2008.229683,
        2008.144768,
        2007.898722,
        2007.502088,
        2006.979419,
        2006.360112,
        2005.674845,
        2004.95296,
        2004.220733,
        2003.500432
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.027,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0965,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.0646,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 9
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}