{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_metals_cut_20_sa",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Metals supply -20%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "metals_cut_20",
    "spec": {
      "metals": -0.2
    },
    "units": {
      "metals": "supply_fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "SA",
    "name": "Saudi Arabia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.024094,
        -0.033058,
        -0.036385,
        -0.037695,
        -0.038534,
        -0.039455,
        -0.040567,
        -0.041691,
        -0.042547,
        -0.042917,
        -0.042609,
        -0.041531,
        -0.039677,
        -0.037107,
        -0.033938,
        -0.030316,
        -0.026401,
        -0.022347,
        -0.018297,
        -0.014373
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.01399,
        -0.021695,
        -0.024258,
        -0.024016,
        -0.022818,
        -0.021709,
        -0.021118,
        -0.021066,
        -0.021367,
        -0.021788,
        -0.022105,
        -0.022149,
        -0.021816,
        -0.021066,
        -0.019908,
        -0.01839,
        -0.016585,
        -0.014575,
        -0.012448,
        -0.010285
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.020876,
        0.025932,
        0.023014,
        0.017081,
        0.010725,
        0.005096,
        0.000577,
        -0.002809,
        -0.005189,
        -0.006735,
        -0.007619,
        -0.007995,
        -0.007994,
        -0.007723,
        -0.007273,
        -0.006712,
        -0.006095,
        -0.005464,
        -0.004848,
        -0.004268
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.025908,
        0.054173,
        0.074248,
        0.083488,
        0.082993,
        0.075174,
        0.06257,
        0.047375,
        0.031307,
        0.015589,
        0.001087,
        -0.011656,
        -0.022345,
        -0.030872,
        -0.037273,
        -0.041686,
        -0.044316,
        -0.045408,
        -0.045217,
        -0.044
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002343,
        -0.007144,
        -0.013556,
        -0.020533,
        -0.027169,
        -0.032816,
        -0.037084,
        -0.039797,
        -0.040941,
        -0.040615,
        -0.038992,
        -0.036284,
        -0.032725,
        -0.028545,
        -0.023964,
        -0.019177,
        -0.014356,
        -0.00964,
        -0.005142,
        -0.000944
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003855,
        -0.00923,
        -0.015099,
        -0.020958,
        -0.026569,
        -0.031828,
        -0.036698,
        -0.041154,
        -0.045164,
        -0.048685,
        -0.051664,
        -0.054049,
        -0.055796,
        -0.056876,
        -0.05728,
        -0.057021,
        -0.056132,
        -0.054662,
        -0.052678,
        -0.050252
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.129541,
        -0.270863,
        -0.371239,
        -0.417441,
        -0.414964,
        -0.375872,
        -0.312852,
        -0.236873,
        -0.156533,
        -0.077946,
        -0.027362,
        0.058279,
        0.111727,
        0.154361,
        0.186364,
        0.208429,
        0.221582,
        0.22704,
        0.226087,
        0.219999
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.094789,
        -0.136862,
        -0.156782,
        -0.166325,
        -0.171184,
        -0.173991,
        -0.175837,
        -0.176671,
        -0.17592,
        -0.173126,
        -0.167821,
        -0.159848,
        -0.149302,
        -0.136487,
        -0.121877,
        -0.106037,
        -0.089552,
        -0.07298,
        -0.05682,
        -0.041485
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.063241,
        0.063916,
        0.059093,
        0.049948,
        0.038055,
        0.024888,
        0.011632,
        -0.000849,
        -0.011981,
        -0.021434,
        -0.029059,
        -0.034847,
        -0.03889,
        -0.041346,
        -0.042416,
        -0.042317,
        -0.041271,
        -0.03949,
        -0.037167,
        -0.034477
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.011557,
        0.008162,
        0.003482,
        -0.002055,
        -0.007895,
        -0.013548,
        -0.018648,
        -0.022962,
        -0.026366,
        -0.028827,
        -0.030372,
        -0.031075,
        -0.031033,
        -0.03036,
        -0.029176,
        -0.027595,
        -0.025727,
        -0.02367,
        -0.021507,
        -0.01931
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.002789,
        -0.003434,
        -0.004772,
        -0.006601,
        -0.008652,
        -0.010682,
        -0.012511,
        -0.014021,
        -0.015147,
        -0.015869,
        -0.016197,
        -0.016162,
        -0.015807,
        -0.015186,
        -0.014352,
        -0.01336,
        -0.012258,
        -0.011093,
        -0.009901,
        -0.008717
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.004615,
        -0.010098,
        -0.015149,
        -0.019472,
        -0.023146,
        -0.026351,
        -0.029247,
        -0.031919,
        -0.034365,
        -0.036532,
        -0.038325,
        -0.039644,
        -0.040402,
        -0.04054,
        -0.040034,
        -0.038896,
        -0.037171,
        -0.03493,
        -0.032263,
        -0.02927
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000145,
        0.001087,
        0.003867,
        0.007749,
        0.012107,
        0.016353,
        0.020017,
        0.022771,
        0.024417,
        0.024863,
        0.024103,
        0.022197,
        0.019248,
        0.015392,
        0.010786,
        0.005591,
        -3.1e-05,
        -0.005921,
        -0.011934,
        -0.017938
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.098293,
        -0.170372,
        -0.204103,
        -0.220222,
        -0.222234,
        -0.214133,
        -0.199482,
        -0.180752,
        -0.159616,
        -0.137352,
        -0.114742,
        -0.092456,
        -0.071004,
        -0.050793,
        -0.032154,
        -0.015327,
        -0.000465,
        0.012358,
        0.023139,
        0.031933
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000491,
        -0.001343,
        -0.002364,
        -0.003465,
        -0.004576,
        -0.005647,
        -0.006644,
        -0.007548,
        -0.008346,
        -0.009033,
        -0.009606,
        -0.010069,
        -0.010424,
        -0.010678,
        -0.010839,
        -0.010915,
        -0.010917,
        -0.010856,
        -0.01074,
        -0.01058
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.068805,
        -0.11926,
        -0.142872,
        -0.154155,
        -0.155564,
        -0.149893,
        -0.139637,
        -0.126526,
        -0.111731,
        -0.096146,
        -0.080319,
        -0.064719,
        -0.049703,
        -0.035555,
        -0.022508,
        -0.010729,
        -0.000326,
        0.00865,
        0.016197,
        0.022353
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.00551,
        0.008231,
        0.009272,
        0.009226,
        0.008487,
        0.007315,
        0.00589,
        0.004349,
        0.002807,
        0.001352,
        5.9e-05,
        -0.001021,
        -0.001862,
        -0.002456,
        -0.002814,
        -0.002961,
        -0.002928,
        -0.002753,
        -0.002469,
        -0.002111
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003004,
        -0.00711,
        -0.011566,
        -0.016118,
        -0.020729,
        -0.025431,
        -0.03027,
        -0.03526,
        -0.040369,
        -0.045531,
        -0.05065,
        -0.055613,
        -0.060308,
        -0.064628,
        -0.068485,
        -0.071815,
        -0.074573,
        -0.076741,
        -0.078321,
        -0.079334
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.138143,
        -0.192515,
        -0.207784,
        -0.205582,
        -0.196233,
        -0.184543,
        -0.172628,
        -0.161272,
        -0.150622,
        -0.140593,
        -0.130989,
        -0.121645,
        -0.112446,
        -0.103339,
        -0.094331,
        -0.085469,
        -0.076825,
        -0.068482,
        -0.060521,
        -0.053011
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.014613,
        0.018152,
        0.01611,
        0.011957,
        0.007507,
        0.003567,
        0.000404,
        -0.001966,
        -0.003632,
        -0.004715,
        -0.005334,
        -0.005597,
        -0.005596,
        -0.005406,
        -0.005091,
        -0.004698,
        -0.004266,
        -0.003825,
        -0.003394,
        -0.002988
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012735,
        -0.017422,
        -0.019226,
        -0.020058,
        -0.020712,
        -0.021456,
        -0.022324,
        -0.023194,
        -0.023892,
        -0.024282,
        -0.02425,
        -0.02374,
        -0.022751,
        -0.021319,
        -0.019515,
        -0.017428,
        -0.015156,
        -0.012792,
        -0.010422,
        -0.008122
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.002416,
        0.005161,
        0.007591,
        0.00958,
        0.011183,
        0.0125,
        0.013618,
        0.014585,
        0.015409,
        0.016076,
        0.016555,
        0.016812,
        0.016823,
        0.016574,
        0.016066,
        0.015314,
        0.014347,
        0.013202,
        0.011921,
        0.010549
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000803,
        -0.001845,
        -0.002901,
        -0.003892,
        -0.0048,
        -0.005631,
        -0.006396,
        -0.007107,
        -0.007764,
        -0.008365,
        -0.008902,
        -0.009365,
        -0.009744,
        -0.01003,
        -0.010217,
        -0.010304,
        -0.010292,
        -0.010185,
        -0.00999,
        -0.009717
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.7e-05,
        3.9e-05,
        6.1e-05,
        8.1e-05,
        0.0001,
        0.000118,
        0.000134,
        0.000149,
        0.000162,
        0.000175,
        0.000186,
        0.000196,
        0.000204,
        0.00021,
        0.000214,
        0.000216,
        0.000215,
        0.000213,
        0.000209,
        0.000203
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.010601,
        -0.014546,
        -0.016009,
        -0.016586,
        -0.016955,
        -0.01736,
        -0.017849,
        -0.018344,
        -0.018721,
        -0.018884,
        -0.018748,
        -0.018274,
        -0.017458,
        -0.016327,
        -0.014933,
        -0.013339,
        -0.011616,
        -0.009833,
        -0.008051,
        -0.006324
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003095,
        -0.00315,
        -0.001782,
        0.000151,
        0.002129,
        0.003853,
        0.005171,
        0.006033,
        0.006459,
        0.006495,
        0.006208,
        0.005668,
        0.004942,
        0.004092,
        0.003168,
        0.002215,
        0.001266,
        0.00035,
        -0.000515,
        -0.001315
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.006477,
        0.013543,
        0.018562,
        0.020872,
        0.020748,
        0.018794,
        0.015643,
        0.011844,
        0.007827,
        0.003897,
        0.000272,
        -0.002914,
        -0.005586,
        -0.007718,
        -0.009318,
        -0.010421,
        -0.011079,
        -0.011352,
        -0.011304,
        -0.011
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00095,
        -0.002181,
        -0.00343,
        -0.004601,
        -0.005675,
        -0.006657,
        -0.007563,
        -0.008403,
        -0.00918,
        -0.00989,
        -0.010525,
        -0.011073,
        -0.011521,
        -0.011859,
        -0.01208,
        -0.012183,
        -0.012169,
        -0.012042,
        -0.011812,
        -0.011489
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.013101,
        15.028218,
        15.043502,
        15.056648,
        15.067158,
        15.075251,
        15.082098,
        15.087402,
        15.090405,
        15.091355,
        15.089678,
        15.085529,
        15.079076,
        15.07066,
        15.060793,
        15.050009,
        15.038813,
        15.027655,
        15.016904,
        15.00685
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.025908,
        0.054173,
        0.074248,
        0.083488,
        0.082993,
        0.075174,
        0.06257,
        0.047375,
        0.031307,
        0.015589,
        0.001087,
        -0.011656,
        -0.022345,
        -0.030872,
        -0.037273,
        -0.041686,
        -0.044316,
        -0.045408,
        -0.045217,
        -0.044
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.00031,
        -0.000525,
        -0.000977,
        -0.001596,
        -0.002291,
        -0.002983,
        -0.003609,
        -0.004131,
        -0.004525,
        -0.004786,
        -0.004916,
        -0.004925,
        -0.004828,
        -0.004642,
        -0.004385,
        -0.004074,
        -0.003727,
        -0.003357,
        -0.002979,
        -0.002602
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.006477,
        -0.013543,
        -0.018562,
        -0.020872,
        -0.020748,
        -0.018794,
        -0.015643,
        -0.011844,
        -0.007827,
        -0.003897,
        -0.000272,
        0.002914,
        0.005586,
        0.007718,
        0.009318,
        0.010421,
        0.011079,
        0.011352,
        0.011304,
        0.011
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.120158,
        -0.12144,
        -0.112277,
        -0.094901,
        -0.072304,
        -0.047287,
        -0.022101,
        0.001612,
        0.022764,
        0.040725,
        0.055211,
        0.066209,
        0.07389,
        0.078558,
        0.08059,
        0.080402,
        0.078415,
        0.07503,
        0.070618,
        0.065506
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.052006,
        -0.036728,
        -0.015667,
        0.009247,
        0.035528,
        0.060967,
        0.083918,
        0.103327,
        0.118646,
        0.12972,
        0.136675,
        0.139836,
        0.139647,
        0.136621,
        0.13129,
        0.124178,
        0.115773,
        0.106513,
        0.09678,
        0.086893
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.022873,
        0.028161,
        0.039133,
        0.054129,
        0.070943,
        0.087594,
        0.102594,
        0.114973,
        0.124208,
        0.13013,
        0.132817,
        0.132525,
        0.129619,
        0.124525,
        0.11769,
        0.109551,
        0.100519,
        0.090961,
        0.081192,
        0.071478
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.005572,
        0.009458,
        0.017583,
        0.02872,
        0.041243,
        0.053691,
        0.064967,
        0.074352,
        0.081457,
        0.086153,
        0.088491,
        0.088654,
        0.086905,
        0.083553,
        0.078922,
        0.073331,
        0.067077,
        0.06043,
        0.053619,
        0.046836
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.092698,
        -0.125415,
        -0.127433,
        -0.115647,
        -0.098657,
        -0.080803,
        -0.064206,
        -0.04982,
        -0.037988,
        -0.028743,
        -0.021885,
        -0.017147,
        -0.014215,
        -0.012762,
        -0.01248,
        -0.013082,
        -0.014313,
        -0.015952,
        -0.017814,
        -0.019748
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.280195,
        -0.395149,
        -0.431588,
        -0.432421,
        -0.418548,
        -0.39979,
        -0.380453,
        -0.362127,
        -0.345105,
        -0.328953,
        -0.313472,
        -0.298219,
        -0.282914,
        -0.267376,
        -0.25149,
        -0.235235,
        -0.218666,
        -0.201892,
        -0.185049,
        -0.168291
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.012242,
        80.022297,
        80.02611,
        80.023663,
        80.016115,
        80.004875,
        79.991309,
        79.976809,
        79.962729,
        79.950113,
        79.939851,
        79.932482,
        79.92823,
        79.927059,
        79.928702,
        79.932742,
        79.938682,
        79.946,
        79.954193,
        79.962805
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        128.585998,
        140.026809,
        143.175279,
        142.431665,
        139.971682,
        136.860853,
        133.611651,
        130.46213,
        127.51497,
        124.806624,
        122.341908,
        120.111004,
        118.097902,
        116.284527,
        114.652699,
        113.185054,
        111.865441,
        110.679049,
        109.612413,
        108.653354
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.016891,
        100.031648,
        100.038808,
        100.037934,
        100.030166,
        100.017108,
        100.000446,
        99.981969,
        99.963464,
        99.946409,
        99.932024,
        99.921107,
        99.914065,
        99.910952,
        99.911528,
        99.915342,
        99.921814,
        99.93031,
        99.940193,
        99.950867
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.001119,
        4.002064,
        4.00249,
        4.002403,
        4.00191,
        4.00113,
        4.000169,
        3.999132,
        3.998114,
        3.997189,
        3.99642,
        3.995844,
        3.995478,
        3.995323,
        3.995362,
        3.995569,
        3.99591,
        3.996352,
        3.99686,
        3.997405
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.005439,
        100.009652,
        100.010796,
        100.008974,
        100.004804,
        99.998972,
        99.992068,
        99.984715,
        99.97755,
        99.971079,
        99.965721,
        99.96174,
        99.959251,
        99.95825,
        99.958626,
        99.960197,
        99.962741,
        99.96602,
        99.969804,
        99.973879
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.01144,
        100.021153,
        100.025637,
        100.024832,
        100.019659,
        100.011272,
        100.000807,
        99.98942,
        99.978226,
        99.968126,
        99.95983,
        99.953777,
        99.950157,
        99.948946,
        99.949943,
        99.952826,
        99.957209,
        99.962682,
        99.968845,
        99.975336
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2003.833146,
        2005.376025,
        2006.035678,
        2006.377902,
        2006.645347,
        2006.925098,
        2007.273328,
        2007.639141,
        2007.941681,
        2008.15777,
        2008.229683,
        2008.144768,
        2007.898722,
        2007.502088,
        2006.979419,
        2006.360112,
        2005.674845,
        2004.95296,
        2004.220733,
        2003.500432
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.0429,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.073,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.1767,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 8
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}