{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil180_us150_ru",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $180 and US +150bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil180_us150",
    "spec": {
      "monetary": {
        "US": 150.0
      },
      "oil": 180.0
    },
    "units": {
      "monetary": "bp_deviation",
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "RU",
    "name": "Russia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.57268,
        3.786735,
        3.717891,
        3.628677,
        3.509792,
        3.35703,
        3.174589,
        2.976894,
        2.779268,
        2.593826,
        2.428936,
        2.291117,
        2.037777,
        1.745645,
        1.500818,
        1.300049,
        1.137101,
        1.009749,
        0.915345,
        0.844367
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.563241,
        1.915328,
        2.020394,
        2.053041,
        2.043015,
        1.999598,
        1.928684,
        1.838888,
        1.73936,
        1.638169,
        1.541799,
        1.455487,
        1.318096,
        1.153553,
        1.002235,
        0.870696,
        0.7595,
        0.668686,
        0.59734,
        0.541465
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.155847,
        0.381638,
        0.44262,
        0.43597,
        0.407344,
        0.36831,
        0.324439,
        0.279485,
        0.23527,
        0.194215,
        0.15821,
        0.127965,
        0.099222,
        0.073524,
        0.053038,
        0.037348,
        0.025773,
        0.018238,
        0.015173,
        0.014963
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.434969,
        1.027238,
        1.53309,
        1.883396,
        2.08778,
        2.17,
        2.155239,
        2.067741,
        1.92897,
        1.758114,
        1.571833,
        1.383626,
        1.195926,
        1.012975,
        0.84168,
        0.687061,
        0.551754,
        0.437341,
        0.345358,
        0.274504
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -10.827409,
        -15.121642,
        -17.064985,
        -17.801078,
        -17.915643,
        -17.706171,
        -17.315758,
        -16.826814,
        -16.29607,
        -15.754104,
        -15.217248,
        -14.697813,
        -14.190829,
        -13.700569,
        -13.22744,
        -12.77548,
        -12.344576,
        -11.935214,
        -11.546901,
        -11.174492
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.545191,
        1.075191,
        1.548246,
        1.967783,
        2.335597,
        2.652355,
        2.918882,
        3.137728,
        3.313224,
        3.450907,
        3.556897,
        3.637634,
        3.677101,
        3.672146,
        3.632956,
        3.568409,
        3.485746,
        3.391329,
        3.290637,
        3.187321
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.359277,
        -3.21012,
        -4.790906,
        -5.885612,
        -6.524312,
        -6.781249,
        -6.735123,
        -6.461689,
        -6.028031,
        -5.494106,
        -4.911979,
        -4.32383,
        -3.737269,
        -3.165548,
        -2.630249,
        -2.147067,
        -1.724232,
        -1.366692,
        -1.079243,
        -0.857826
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        6.11114,
        6.111424,
        5.688263,
        5.350886,
        5.074575,
        4.833797,
        4.616256,
        4.42659,
        4.387683,
        4.368843,
        4.27329,
        4.214108,
        3.931051,
        3.559117,
        3.252327,
        3.005287,
        2.807942,
        2.656754,
        2.54665,
        2.462044
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.669932,
        1.856682,
        1.948041,
        1.952884,
        1.890413,
        1.778931,
        1.634303,
        1.470108,
        1.297523,
        1.125371,
        0.960275,
        0.806965,
        0.668325,
        0.546609,
        0.443165,
        0.358105,
        0.290555,
        0.238984,
        0.201361,
        0.175233
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.26743,
        1.256791,
        1.214701,
        1.146106,
        1.059269,
        0.96184,
        0.860157,
        0.759212,
        0.662733,
        0.573325,
        0.49259,
        0.421264,
        0.359384,
        0.306856,
        0.26337,
        0.228274,
        0.200669,
        0.179535,
        0.163783,
        0.152258
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.705655,
        0.697249,
        0.673829,
        0.637555,
        0.592321,
        0.54178,
        0.488994,
        0.436399,
        0.385822,
        0.338557,
        0.295418,
        0.256801,
        0.222766,
        0.193312,
        0.168331,
        0.147542,
        0.130538,
        0.116845,
        0.10595,
        0.0973
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.651128,
        1.245556,
        1.740195,
        2.145968,
        2.470541,
        2.719643,
        2.89886,
        3.015527,
        3.078462,
        3.097442,
        3.082553,
        3.043601,
        2.963307,
        2.840849,
        2.69107,
        2.526032,
        2.354894,
        2.185061,
        2.022377,
        1.870103
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.064076,
        0.213992,
        0.469057,
        0.822554,
        1.257704,
        1.755003,
        2.294449,
        2.856864,
        3.424805,
        3.983062,
        4.519087,
        5.023205,
        5.485974,
        5.898825,
        6.255719,
        6.553239,
        6.790232,
        6.967479,
        7.087428,
        7.153864
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        9.413736,
        9.376063,
        8.146203,
        7.350197,
        6.678292,
        6.089248,
        5.565957,
        5.12312,
        4.772622,
        4.516593,
        4.34984,
        4.268588,
        3.720839,
        3.134545,
        2.749688,
        2.460271,
        2.241846,
        2.08984,
        1.994147,
        1.923063
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.047069,
        0.093949,
        0.13468,
        0.171431,
        0.204822,
        0.235269,
        0.263098,
        0.288714,
        0.312577,
        0.33516,
        0.356909,
        0.378252,
        0.396856,
        0.412529,
        0.426278,
        0.438579,
        0.449788,
        0.460237,
        0.470208,
        0.479823
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        6.589615,
        6.563244,
        5.702342,
        5.145138,
        4.674804,
        4.262474,
        3.89617,
        3.586184,
        3.340835,
        3.161615,
        3.044888,
        2.988012,
        2.604587,
        2.194182,
        1.924782,
        1.72219,
        1.569292,
        1.462888,
        1.395903,
        1.346144
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.282326,
        3.518242,
        4.005886,
        4.11401,
        4.046617,
        3.900211,
        3.719508,
        3.526575,
        3.332136,
        3.14152,
        2.957172,
        2.77989,
        2.636472,
        2.514753,
        2.397842,
        2.285253,
        2.176752,
        2.072618,
        1.973627,
        1.879522
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.180869,
        0.366349,
        0.542397,
        0.708477,
        0.863406,
        1.005677,
        1.133951,
        1.24762,
        1.346822,
        1.432361,
        1.50556,
        1.568095,
        1.614492,
        1.643367,
        1.657757,
        1.660475,
        1.65395,
        1.640432,
        1.62197,
        1.600053
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        8.729281,
        12.651475,
        14.08985,
        14.338426,
        14.031403,
        13.467007,
        12.786436,
        12.065097,
        11.342634,
        10.641028,
        9.971733,
        9.339916,
        8.757894,
        8.226624,
        7.73652,
        7.283706,
        6.863917,
        6.476788,
        6.123504,
        5.798421
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.109093,
        0.267147,
        0.309834,
        0.305179,
        0.285141,
        0.257817,
        0.227107,
        0.19564,
        0.164689,
        0.135951,
        0.110747,
        0.089575,
        0.069455,
        0.051467,
        0.037127,
        0.026143,
        0.018041,
        0.012767,
        0.010621,
        0.010474
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.157041,
        2.291367,
        2.252334,
        2.199344,
        2.127716,
        2.035333,
        1.924901,
        1.805195,
        1.685484,
        1.57309,
        1.473064,
        1.389337,
        1.236362,
        1.060202,
        0.912507,
        0.791322,
        0.692897,
        0.615897,
        0.558739,
        0.515692
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.375131,
        -0.678956,
        -0.899595,
        -1.055708,
        -1.160309,
        -1.22272,
        -1.250372,
        -1.250353,
        -1.229588,
        -1.194542,
        -1.150945,
        -1.103776,
        -1.041799,
        -0.964642,
        -0.881067,
        -0.797306,
        -0.717375,
        -0.644055,
        -0.579152,
        -0.523023
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.012924,
        0.025534,
        0.036948,
        0.04733,
        0.056806,
        0.065464,
        0.073366,
        0.080581,
        0.087181,
        0.093233,
        0.0988,
        0.103937,
        0.108161,
        0.1113,
        0.113509,
        0.114927,
        0.115666,
        0.115834,
        0.115535,
        0.114842
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.964974,
        2.082705,
        2.04484,
        1.995773,
        1.930386,
        1.846366,
        1.746024,
        1.637292,
        1.528598,
        1.426604,
        1.335915,
        1.260115,
        1.120777,
        0.960105,
        0.82545,
        0.715027,
        0.625406,
        0.555362,
        0.50344,
        0.464402
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.98003,
        3.880883,
        4.288066,
        4.458164,
        4.497155,
        4.461013,
        4.377939,
        4.267229,
        4.144492,
        4.018871,
        3.895662,
        3.779236,
        3.639305,
        3.491986,
        3.355007,
        3.229263,
        3.113888,
        3.008681,
        2.912949,
        2.823775
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.108742,
        0.25681,
        0.383272,
        0.470849,
        0.521945,
        0.5425,
        0.53881,
        0.516935,
        0.482242,
        0.439528,
        0.392958,
        0.345906,
        0.298982,
        0.253244,
        0.21042,
        0.171765,
        0.137939,
        0.109335,
        0.086339,
        0.068626
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.042374,
        0.083718,
        0.121141,
        0.155181,
        0.18625,
        0.214635,
        0.240543,
        0.264201,
        0.285839,
        0.305682,
        0.323933,
        0.340778,
        0.354628,
        0.364918,
        0.372162,
        0.376809,
        0.379232,
        0.379784,
        0.378803,
        0.376531
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        18.487993,
        20.149531,
        20.971277,
        21.402641,
        21.655841,
        21.826188,
        21.949217,
        22.02958,
        21.991684,
        21.902587,
        21.82051,
        21.674182,
        21.474016,
        21.238613,
        20.992211,
        20.743488,
        20.500178,
        20.261909,
        20.026313,
        19.795016
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.434969,
        1.027238,
        1.53309,
        1.883396,
        2.08778,
        2.17,
        2.155239,
        2.067741,
        1.92897,
        1.758114,
        1.571833,
        1.383626,
        1.195926,
        1.012975,
        0.84168,
        0.687061,
        0.551754,
        0.437341,
        0.345358,
        0.274504
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.239033,
        0.235407,
        0.226847,
        0.214071,
        0.198376,
        0.180978,
        0.162895,
        0.144935,
        0.127704,
        0.11163,
        0.09698,
        0.083882,
        0.072353,
        0.062387,
        0.053947,
        0.046934,
        0.04121,
        0.036613,
        0.03297,
        0.030093
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.108742,
        -0.25681,
        -0.383272,
        -0.470849,
        -0.521945,
        -0.5425,
        -0.53881,
        -0.516935,
        -0.482242,
        -0.439528,
        -0.392958,
        -0.345906,
        -0.298982,
        -0.253244,
        -0.21042,
        -0.171765,
        -0.137939,
        -0.109335,
        -0.086339,
        -0.068626
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.17287,
        -3.527695,
        -3.701278,
        -3.71048,
        -3.591784,
        -3.379969,
        -3.105176,
        -2.793205,
        -2.465294,
        -2.138205,
        -1.824522,
        -1.533234,
        -1.269817,
        -1.038557,
        -0.842014,
        -0.680399,
        -0.552055,
        -0.45407,
        -0.382585,
        -0.332942
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -5.703434,
        -5.65556,
        -5.466152,
        -5.157476,
        -4.766712,
        -4.328279,
        -3.870708,
        -3.416454,
        -2.982299,
        -2.579964,
        -2.216657,
        -1.895686,
        -1.617226,
        -1.380852,
        -1.185166,
        -1.027232,
        -0.90301,
        -0.807907,
        -0.737025,
        -0.685162
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -5.78637,
        -5.717443,
        -5.525397,
        -5.227954,
        -4.857031,
        -4.442594,
        -4.009754,
        -3.578471,
        -3.163743,
        -2.776171,
        -2.422427,
        -2.105768,
        -1.826684,
        -1.585162,
        -1.380317,
        -1.209846,
        -1.070411,
        -0.958129,
        -0.868788,
        -0.797858
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.302593,
        -4.237335,
        -4.083241,
        -3.853274,
        -3.570764,
        -3.2576,
        -2.932105,
        -2.608827,
        -2.298675,
        -2.009341,
        -1.745636,
        -1.509875,
        -1.302346,
        -1.122974,
        -0.971045,
        -0.844812,
        -0.741773,
        -0.659031,
        -0.593453,
        -0.541674
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        12.750802,
        17.737343,
        20.030338,
        20.95511,
        21.210212,
        21.096214,
        20.779679,
        20.351468,
        19.826855,
        19.286631,
        18.789373,
        18.307916,
        17.832862,
        17.364519,
        16.902491,
        16.45021,
        16.009078,
        15.57875,
        15.156506,
        14.738421
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -10.599186,
        -14.658443,
        -16.35333,
        -16.836036,
        -16.704185,
        -16.262306,
        -15.659749,
        -14.986,
        -14.343734,
        -13.757219,
        -13.224147,
        -12.723769,
        -12.24865,
        -11.801077,
        -11.376861,
        -10.979077,
        -10.604763,
        -10.253821,
        -9.9261,
        -9.615019
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        129.136448,
        150.647844,
        158.750394,
        160.394752,
        158.974787,
        156.112215,
        152.58531,
        148.8097,
        145.009137,
        141.306291,
        137.764978,
        134.41658,
        131.274961,
        128.365679,
        125.669421,
        123.16956,
        120.84527,
        118.691663,
        116.709513,
        114.872269
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.515129,
        97.037028,
        95.964041,
        95.282346,
        94.883079,
        94.616465,
        94.36142,
        94.094993,
        93.827584,
        93.577753,
        93.360579,
        93.186549,
        93.068566,
        93.029286,
        93.055187,
        93.138003,
        93.265493,
        93.455283,
        93.733555,
        94.059134
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.569741,
        103.639091,
        105.731912,
        107.582254,
        109.06325,
        110.08572,
        110.617583,
        110.729534,
        110.522385,
        110.095737,
        109.532536,
        108.89789,
        108.241991,
        107.658775,
        107.144574,
        106.696109,
        106.307652,
        105.989309,
        105.755728,
        105.58233
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.602867,
        6.285844,
        6.526979,
        6.560946,
        6.499264,
        6.392185,
        6.26273,
        6.124662,
        5.986274,
        5.852733,
        5.72692,
        5.610308,
        5.5023,
        5.404,
        5.315087,
        5.235183,
        5.162881,
        5.097865,
        5.040347,
        4.988728
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.687869,
        97.421164,
        96.514851,
        95.947935,
        95.625833,
        95.421803,
        95.233992,
        95.041535,
        94.850537,
        94.673953,
        94.522488,
        94.403622,
        94.329346,
        94.313073,
        94.345445,
        94.421896,
        94.530409,
        94.686153,
        94.914615,
        95.179358
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.373084,
        98.660134,
        98.1077,
        97.733174,
        97.486108,
        97.285062,
        97.068172,
        96.829696,
        96.58291,
        96.345241,
        96.131182,
        95.950807,
        95.799647,
        95.729719,
        95.727858,
        95.784008,
        95.883802,
        96.024952,
        96.212594,
        96.428442
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2202.099204,
        2287.827149,
        2323.389462,
        2338.350044,
        2345.702773,
        2351.074883,
        2356.087737,
        2360.470574,
        2370.363813,
        2376.682389,
        2373.22021,
        2365.774889,
        2355.088978,
        2342.322608,
        2328.838793,
        2315.170382,
        2301.756754,
        2288.622359,
        2275.683811,
        2263.01807
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 3.7867,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 2,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 3.5113,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 6.1114,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 2
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}