{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil180_us150_th",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $180 and US +150bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil180_us150",
    "spec": {
      "monetary": {
        "US": 150.0
      },
      "oil": 180.0
    },
    "units": {
      "monetary": "bp_deviation",
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "TH",
    "name": "Thailand"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.574607,
        -2.279051,
        -2.560817,
        -2.645246,
        -2.639768,
        -2.655541,
        -2.736078,
        -2.840725,
        -2.947067,
        -3.044238,
        -3.129102,
        -3.200448,
        -3.255323,
        -3.288174,
        -3.307931,
        -3.316585,
        -3.245354,
        -3.120556,
        -2.990456,
        -2.862643
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.818846,
        -1.347581,
        -1.618994,
        -1.727568,
        -1.747212,
        -1.75315,
        -1.7869,
        -1.840256,
        -1.902015,
        -1.965618,
        -2.027579,
        -2.08431,
        -2.132789,
        -2.169107,
        -2.196439,
        -2.215827,
        -2.192383,
        -2.132305,
        -2.059892,
        -1.983728
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.40617,
        0.518727,
        0.483727,
        0.408821,
        0.334583,
        0.252445,
        0.171051,
        0.09545,
        0.013005,
        -0.04847,
        -0.082418,
        -0.113913,
        -0.139679,
        -0.158492,
        -0.171347,
        -0.18053,
        -0.186546,
        -0.189324,
        -0.18834,
        -0.184861
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.24432,
        0.508401,
        0.698425,
        0.798686,
        0.820685,
        0.771441,
        0.659791,
        0.498866,
        0.297082,
        0.073083,
        -0.153747,
        -0.376554,
        -0.589236,
        -0.785934,
        -0.963389,
        -1.120498,
        -1.253461,
        -1.360515,
        -1.442629,
        -1.502098
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.917305,
        1.291334,
        1.366589,
        1.344216,
        1.33175,
        1.310776,
        1.301037,
        1.30677,
        1.270054,
        1.256964,
        1.304557,
        1.350241,
        1.395476,
        1.435846,
        1.471189,
        1.497264,
        1.509204,
        1.506024,
        1.491951,
        1.469712
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.273989,
        -0.654974,
        -1.061742,
        -1.456832,
        -1.823985,
        -2.167464,
        -2.498942,
        -2.822402,
        -3.137779,
        -3.443518,
        -3.738053,
        -4.019867,
        -4.287169,
        -4.537446,
        -4.770004,
        -4.984572,
        -5.168953,
        -5.316449,
        -5.429257,
        -5.510697
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.017999,
        -2.118336,
        -2.910106,
        -3.327858,
        -3.41952,
        -3.214339,
        -2.749131,
        -2.078608,
        -1.237844,
        -0.304513,
        0.640612,
        1.568975,
        2.455148,
        3.274723,
        4.014121,
        4.66874,
        5.222752,
        5.668813,
        6.010955,
        6.25874
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.039816,
        -5.985947,
        -6.847915,
        -7.15698,
        -7.180853,
        -7.205146,
        -7.348757,
        -7.521558,
        -7.612652,
        -7.681781,
        -7.784887,
        -7.860949,
        -7.904602,
        -7.903662,
        -7.881035,
        -7.841466,
        -7.612376,
        -7.259296,
        -6.903053,
        -6.56179
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.625077,
        0.631672,
        0.577258,
        0.470736,
        0.323831,
        0.147591,
        -0.047081,
        -0.249978,
        -0.452399,
        -0.646217,
        -0.825417,
        -0.986527,
        -1.12722,
        -1.246226,
        -1.343134,
        -1.418351,
        -1.472801,
        -1.508221,
        -1.526873,
        -1.53114
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.208864,
        -0.298144,
        -0.401624,
        -0.514802,
        -0.632541,
        -0.750416,
        -0.864475,
        -0.971303,
        -1.068206,
        -1.152976,
        -1.224397,
        -1.282268,
        -1.326767,
        -1.35841,
        -1.378024,
        -1.386615,
        -1.385257,
        -1.375221,
        -1.35787,
        -1.33452
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.757619,
        -0.786329,
        -0.820797,
        -0.859203,
        -0.899337,
        -0.939271,
        -0.977253,
        -1.011751,
        -1.041561,
        -1.065687,
        -1.083599,
        -1.095249,
        -1.100763,
        -1.100414,
        -1.094624,
        -1.083894,
        -1.068752,
        -1.049821,
        -1.027766,
        -1.003227
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.355341,
        -0.801604,
        -1.223453,
        -1.580275,
        -1.864372,
        -2.095641,
        -2.300312,
        -2.489876,
        -2.668528,
        -2.836925,
        -2.994467,
        -3.140302,
        -3.272972,
        -3.389916,
        -3.491124,
        -3.577005,
        -3.631661,
        -3.648476,
        -3.633463,
        -3.593228
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.022288,
        -0.031529,
        -0.025989,
        -0.017785,
        -0.019592,
        -0.041435,
        -0.09284,
        -0.181537,
        -0.312922,
        -0.491671,
        -0.718625,
        -0.990635,
        -1.303982,
        -1.654034,
        -2.035401,
        -2.442246,
        -2.867654,
        -3.304139,
        -3.744438,
        -4.181665
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.660686,
        -7.665157,
        -8.30814,
        -8.498519,
        -8.431605,
        -8.430747,
        -8.562336,
        -8.64734,
        -8.653413,
        -8.589361,
        -8.483066,
        -8.343244,
        -8.169019,
        -7.950854,
        -7.733254,
        -7.516545,
        -7.043139,
        -6.48445,
        -5.996084,
        -5.555312
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.023303,
        -0.061629,
        -0.10317,
        -0.145663,
        -0.187821,
        -0.229974,
        -0.272786,
        -0.316023,
        -0.35929,
        -0.402237,
        -0.444652,
        -0.486368,
        -0.527213,
        -0.566967,
        -0.605634,
        -0.643216,
        -0.678432,
        -0.710854,
        -0.740835,
        -0.768611
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.26248,
        -5.36561,
        -5.815698,
        -5.948964,
        -5.902124,
        -5.901523,
        -5.993635,
        -6.053138,
        -6.057389,
        -6.012553,
        -5.938146,
        -5.840271,
        -5.718313,
        -5.565598,
        -5.413278,
        -5.261581,
        -4.930197,
        -4.539115,
        -4.197259,
        -3.888718
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.258803,
        0.374634,
        0.421011,
        0.434992,
        0.434234,
        0.437277,
        0.451358,
        0.469558,
        0.488059,
        0.505004,
        0.519852,
        0.532392,
        0.542122,
        0.548097,
        0.551827,
        0.55365,
        0.541964,
        0.521209,
        0.49953,
        0.478212
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.251544,
        -0.603293,
        -0.981136,
        -1.351676,
        -1.700748,
        -2.033214,
        -2.360787,
        -2.687696,
        -3.01431,
        -3.339095,
        -3.659914,
        -3.974541,
        -4.280407,
        -4.574204,
        -4.854346,
        -5.119709,
        -5.357854,
        -5.561518,
        -5.731939,
        -5.871565
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.464446,
        -1.983335,
        -2.074692,
        -1.971332,
        -1.783789,
        -1.574909,
        -1.367803,
        -1.178788,
        -1.026579,
        -0.893063,
        -0.765134,
        -0.654434,
        -0.557419,
        -0.46922,
        -0.38791,
        -0.313754,
        -0.257784,
        -0.215385,
        -0.177272,
        -0.142239
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.284319,
        0.363109,
        0.338609,
        0.286174,
        0.234208,
        0.176711,
        0.119735,
        0.066815,
        0.009104,
        -0.033929,
        -0.057693,
        -0.079739,
        -0.097775,
        -0.110944,
        -0.119943,
        -0.126371,
        -0.130582,
        -0.132527,
        -0.131838,
        -0.129403
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.920187,
        -1.332032,
        -1.49693,
        -1.546638,
        -1.543943,
        -1.554762,
        -1.604829,
        -1.66954,
        -1.735319,
        -1.795569,
        -1.848363,
        -1.89295,
        -1.927546,
        -1.948789,
        -1.96205,
        -1.968533,
        -1.926982,
        -1.853188,
        -1.776107,
        -1.700311
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.050191,
        0.106774,
        0.154233,
        0.189195,
        0.212795,
        0.229346,
        0.243168,
        0.255902,
        0.267951,
        0.279242,
        0.289625,
        0.298959,
        0.307056,
        0.313608,
        0.318694,
        0.322428,
        0.322697,
        0.318902,
        0.312174,
        0.303525
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.056802,
        -0.134546,
        -0.215795,
        -0.292792,
        -0.362385,
        -0.42396,
        -0.478014,
        -0.525129,
        -0.565864,
        -0.600717,
        -0.630143,
        -0.654558,
        -0.674243,
        -0.689247,
        -0.699935,
        -0.706696,
        -0.709938,
        -0.709929,
        -0.706812,
        -0.700947
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001129,
        0.002674,
        0.004289,
        0.00582,
        0.007203,
        0.008427,
        0.009502,
        0.010438,
        0.011248,
        0.011941,
        0.012526,
        0.013011,
        0.013402,
        0.013701,
        0.013913,
        0.014047,
        0.014112,
        0.014112,
        0.01405,
        0.013933
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.866034,
        -1.253478,
        -1.408449,
        -1.454885,
        -1.451872,
        -1.460548,
        -1.504843,
        -1.562399,
        -1.620887,
        -1.674331,
        -1.721006,
        -1.760246,
        -1.790428,
        -1.808496,
        -1.819362,
        -1.824122,
        -1.784945,
        -1.716306,
        -1.644751,
        -1.574454
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.221667,
        -3.190551,
        -3.540734,
        -3.608681,
        -3.560699,
        -3.473262,
        -3.388694,
        -3.308539,
        -3.21541,
        -3.129549,
        -3.063047,
        -2.997704,
        -2.933489,
        -2.868176,
        -2.803819,
        -2.739241,
        -2.651725,
        -2.548724,
        -2.446008,
        -2.345874
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.06108,
        0.1271,
        0.174606,
        0.199671,
        0.205171,
        0.19286,
        0.164948,
        0.124717,
        0.074271,
        0.018271,
        -0.038437,
        -0.094139,
        -0.147309,
        -0.196483,
        -0.240847,
        -0.280124,
        -0.313365,
        -0.340129,
        -0.360657,
        -0.375524
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.069483,
        -0.164583,
        -0.263969,
        -0.358156,
        -0.443285,
        -0.518606,
        -0.584727,
        -0.64236,
        -0.692188,
        -0.734821,
        -0.770818,
        -0.800683,
        -0.824763,
        -0.843116,
        -0.856189,
        -0.864461,
        -0.868426,
        -0.868414,
        -0.864602,
        -0.857428
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        18.487993,
        20.149531,
        20.971277,
        21.402641,
        21.655841,
        21.826188,
        21.949217,
        22.02958,
        21.991684,
        21.902587,
        21.82051,
        21.674182,
        21.474016,
        21.238613,
        20.992211,
        20.743488,
        20.500178,
        20.261909,
        20.026313,
        19.795016
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.24432,
        0.508401,
        0.698425,
        0.798686,
        0.820685,
        0.771441,
        0.659791,
        0.498866,
        0.297082,
        0.073083,
        -0.153747,
        -0.376554,
        -0.589236,
        -0.785934,
        -0.963389,
        -1.120498,
        -1.253461,
        -1.360515,
        -1.442629,
        -1.502098
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.450228,
        -0.452694,
        -0.457346,
        -0.463568,
        -0.470612,
        -0.477826,
        -0.484618,
        -0.490467,
        -0.494963,
        -0.497766,
        -0.498692,
        -0.497718,
        -0.494876,
        -0.490252,
        -0.48398,
        -0.47622,
        -0.467142,
        -0.456947,
        -0.445852,
        -0.434064
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.06108,
        -0.1271,
        -0.174606,
        -0.199671,
        -0.205171,
        -0.19286,
        -0.164948,
        -0.124717,
        -0.074271,
        -0.018271,
        0.038437,
        0.094139,
        0.147309,
        0.196483,
        0.240847,
        0.280124,
        0.313365,
        0.340129,
        0.360657,
        0.375524
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.187646,
        -1.200177,
        -1.096789,
        -0.894398,
        -0.615279,
        -0.280423,
        0.089454,
        0.474959,
        0.859558,
        1.227812,
        1.568291,
        1.874401,
        2.141718,
        2.367829,
        2.551955,
        2.694867,
        2.798322,
        2.865619,
        2.901059,
        2.909166
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.939888,
        1.341648,
        1.807309,
        2.316607,
        2.846434,
        3.376872,
        3.890136,
        4.370862,
        4.806926,
        5.188394,
        5.509788,
        5.770205,
        5.970453,
        6.112845,
        6.201107,
        6.239768,
        6.233657,
        6.188494,
        6.110414,
        6.005342
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        6.212476,
        6.447896,
        6.730531,
        7.045468,
        7.374562,
        7.702019,
        8.013472,
        8.296359,
        8.5408,
        8.738633,
        8.885509,
        8.981044,
        9.026253,
        9.023394,
        8.975916,
        8.88793,
        8.763768,
        8.608532,
        8.427678,
        8.22646
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        8.10411,
        8.148498,
        8.232237,
        8.344229,
        8.471018,
        8.600874,
        8.723119,
        8.828399,
        8.909331,
        8.959794,
        8.976462,
        8.958917,
        8.90777,
        8.824544,
        8.711643,
        8.57196,
        8.408552,
        8.225045,
        8.025331,
        7.813156
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.290108,
        0.389692,
        0.521575,
        0.611565,
        0.643356,
        0.638803,
        0.596895,
        0.523567,
        0.445723,
        0.339093,
        0.207092,
        0.083513,
        -0.034067,
        -0.142653,
        -0.242648,
        -0.330186,
        -0.400235,
        -0.452624,
        -0.492985,
        -0.523284
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.145528,
        1.754532,
        2.078245,
        2.309258,
        2.543208,
        2.754641,
        2.957046,
        3.147583,
        3.22239,
        3.25385,
        3.297658,
        3.324285,
        3.337655,
        3.335339,
        3.321768,
        3.293668,
        3.249016,
        3.187418,
        3.112751,
        3.029184
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        129.136448,
        150.647844,
        158.750394,
        160.394752,
        158.974787,
        156.112215,
        152.58531,
        148.8097,
        145.009137,
        141.306291,
        137.764978,
        134.41658,
        131.274961,
        128.365679,
        125.669421,
        123.16956,
        120.84527,
        118.691663,
        116.709513,
        114.872269
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.515129,
        97.037028,
        95.964041,
        95.282346,
        94.883079,
        94.616465,
        94.36142,
        94.094993,
        93.827584,
        93.577753,
        93.360579,
        93.186549,
        93.068566,
        93.029286,
        93.055187,
        93.138003,
        93.265493,
        93.455283,
        93.733555,
        94.059134
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.569741,
        103.639091,
        105.731912,
        107.582254,
        109.06325,
        110.08572,
        110.617583,
        110.729534,
        110.522385,
        110.095737,
        109.532536,
        108.89789,
        108.241991,
        107.658775,
        107.144574,
        106.696109,
        106.307652,
        105.989309,
        105.755728,
        105.58233
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.602867,
        6.285844,
        6.526979,
        6.560946,
        6.499264,
        6.392185,
        6.26273,
        6.124662,
        5.986274,
        5.852733,
        5.72692,
        5.610308,
        5.5023,
        5.404,
        5.315087,
        5.235183,
        5.162881,
        5.097865,
        5.040347,
        4.988728
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.687869,
        97.421164,
        96.514851,
        95.947935,
        95.625833,
        95.421803,
        95.233992,
        95.041535,
        94.850537,
        94.673953,
        94.522488,
        94.403622,
        94.329346,
        94.313073,
        94.345445,
        94.421896,
        94.530409,
        94.686153,
        94.914615,
        95.179358
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.373084,
        98.660134,
        98.1077,
        97.733174,
        97.486108,
        97.285062,
        97.068172,
        96.829696,
        96.58291,
        96.345241,
        96.131182,
        95.950807,
        95.799647,
        95.729719,
        95.727858,
        95.784008,
        95.883802,
        96.024952,
        96.212594,
        96.428442
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2202.099204,
        2287.827149,
        2323.389462,
        2338.350044,
        2345.702773,
        2351.074883,
        2356.087737,
        2360.470574,
        2370.363813,
        2376.682389,
        2373.22021,
        2365.774889,
        2355.088978,
        2342.322608,
        2328.838793,
        2315.170382,
        2301.756754,
        2288.622359,
        2275.683811,
        2263.01807
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -3.3166,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 16,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 2.4392,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -7.9046,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 13
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}