{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_200_my",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $200/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_200",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 200.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "MY",
    "name": "Malaysia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.365189,
        -0.560639,
        -0.662913,
        -0.725086,
        -0.770024,
        -0.824941,
        -0.89436,
        -0.965285,
        -1.029091,
        -1.080599,
        -1.113566,
        -1.118192,
        -1.099971,
        -1.062416,
        -1.007581,
        -0.936448,
        -0.861504,
        -0.782564,
        -0.697865,
        -0.611081
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.211882,
        -0.361139,
        -0.441071,
        -0.480091,
        -0.500007,
        -0.523051,
        -0.557711,
        -0.599535,
        -0.643108,
        -0.68398,
        -0.716996,
        -0.734906,
        -0.738391,
        -0.728588,
        -0.706298,
        -0.671901,
        -0.631958,
        -0.587443,
        -0.537687,
        -0.48461
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.420481,
        0.495943,
        0.440583,
        0.33755,
        0.22483,
        0.116837,
        0.018412,
        -0.066829,
        -0.136436,
        -0.189318,
        -0.22633,
        -0.248353,
        -0.257892,
        -0.257753,
        -0.250204,
        -0.235747,
        -0.217998,
        -0.199031,
        -0.179766,
        -0.160575
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.27464,
        0.565497,
        0.780336,
        0.8977,
        0.924297,
        0.87474,
        0.765113,
        0.612317,
        0.432677,
        0.24083,
        0.048926,
        -0.132561,
        -0.296285,
        -0.437877,
        -0.555091,
        -0.646565,
        -0.713845,
        -0.759319,
        -0.785365,
        -0.794501
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -6.513025,
        -9.451913,
        -10.641598,
        -11.012953,
        -11.00904,
        -10.834775,
        -10.589085,
        -10.322837,
        -10.059494,
        -9.806623,
        -9.566371,
        -9.342462,
        -9.135116,
        -8.940737,
        -8.756241,
        -8.578039,
        -8.400625,
        -8.222962,
        -8.045827,
        -7.868199
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.066582,
        -0.168068,
        -0.28498,
        -0.407492,
        -0.530359,
        -0.653807,
        -0.779148,
        -0.905575,
        -1.031109,
        -1.153291,
        -1.26896,
        -1.373625,
        -1.464272,
        -1.538839,
        -1.595836,
        -1.634088,
        -1.654745,
        -1.658796,
        -1.646783,
        -1.619825
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.144335,
        -2.356238,
        -3.2514,
        -3.740416,
        -3.851239,
        -3.644751,
        -3.187971,
        -2.551321,
        -1.802823,
        -1.00346,
        -0.20386,
        0.552336,
        1.234523,
        1.824489,
        2.312881,
        2.694019,
        2.974356,
        3.163828,
        3.272353,
        3.310421
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.127763,
        -1.870549,
        -2.318415,
        -2.582569,
        -2.724812,
        -2.828063,
        -2.916667,
        -2.969487,
        -2.977341,
        -2.939117,
        -2.849277,
        -2.691127,
        -2.486123,
        -2.247325,
        -1.982177,
        -1.694646,
        -1.417366,
        -1.147976,
        -0.879616,
        -0.620367
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.71183,
        0.731585,
        0.691001,
        0.599575,
        0.470793,
        0.31822,
        0.154143,
        -0.010883,
        -0.168243,
        -0.311559,
        -0.436577,
        -0.540864,
        -0.623606,
        -0.685242,
        -0.726994,
        -0.750673,
        -0.758565,
        -0.753049,
        -0.736445,
        -0.710989
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.064783,
        0.011583,
        -0.055287,
        -0.13153,
        -0.2119,
        -0.2916,
        -0.366662,
        -0.434003,
        -0.491455,
        -0.537705,
        -0.57221,
        -0.595062,
        -0.606897,
        -0.608733,
        -0.601815,
        -0.587502,
        -0.567219,
        -0.542307,
        -0.513983,
        -0.483334
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.193265,
        -0.203574,
        -0.220791,
        -0.243054,
        -0.267963,
        -0.29328,
        -0.317132,
        -0.338042,
        -0.354953,
        -0.367217,
        -0.374544,
        -0.376952,
        -0.374715,
        -0.36829,
        -0.358242,
        -0.345191,
        -0.32979,
        -0.312652,
        -0.29433,
        -0.275315
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.064773,
        -0.15574,
        -0.24942,
        -0.337451,
        -0.41779,
        -0.494676,
        -0.572622,
        -0.652537,
        -0.733266,
        -0.812669,
        -0.887535,
        -0.952971,
        -1.006014,
        -1.044867,
        -1.068384,
        -1.075731,
        -1.068847,
        -1.049224,
        -1.017662,
        -0.975582
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.004302,
        0.031233,
        0.106043,
        0.205262,
        0.31112,
        0.407425,
        0.480945,
        0.521738,
        0.523243,
        0.482172,
        0.398259,
        0.273883,
        0.113505,
        -0.076985,
        -0.29087,
        -0.521038,
        -0.760341,
        -1.00208,
        -1.240221,
        -1.469502
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.338324,
        -2.459874,
        -2.968201,
        -3.278789,
        -3.431516,
        -3.527177,
        -3.579005,
        -3.557783,
        -3.467819,
        -3.31977,
        -3.113136,
        -2.8324,
        -2.519207,
        -2.188031,
        -1.846553,
        -1.498457,
        -1.188097,
        -0.898735,
        -0.620309,
        -0.364816
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.006692,
        -0.018991,
        -0.033832,
        -0.050226,
        -0.067384,
        -0.085019,
        -0.102914,
        -0.120703,
        -0.138042,
        -0.154641,
        -0.170207,
        -0.184369,
        -0.196965,
        -0.207905,
        -0.217138,
        -0.22463,
        -0.230571,
        -0.235064,
        -0.238166,
        -0.23999
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.936827,
        -1.721912,
        -2.07774,
        -2.295153,
        -2.402061,
        -2.469024,
        -2.505304,
        -2.490448,
        -2.427473,
        -2.323839,
        -2.179195,
        -1.98268,
        -1.763445,
        -1.531621,
        -1.292587,
        -1.04892,
        -0.831668,
        -0.629115,
        -0.434216,
        -0.255371
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.428776,
        0.628196,
        0.71374,
        0.744156,
        0.747661,
        0.740035,
        0.727625,
        0.711729,
        0.693056,
        0.672069,
        0.648661,
        0.622188,
        0.593967,
        0.564561,
        0.534263,
        0.503323,
        0.47334,
        0.44406,
        0.415097,
        0.386897
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.052478,
        -0.133408,
        -0.226456,
        -0.324783,
        -0.425674,
        -0.531275,
        -0.64444,
        -0.765613,
        -0.89367,
        -1.026561,
        -1.161155,
        -1.29265,
        -1.417342,
        -1.532238,
        -1.634784,
        -1.722661,
        -1.795804,
        -1.854084,
        -1.897039,
        -1.924853
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.596505,
        2.302029,
        2.575041,
        2.628832,
        2.570392,
        2.453329,
        2.302654,
        2.131674,
        1.949776,
        1.764178,
        1.579937,
        1.400875,
        1.230627,
        1.070549,
        0.921338,
        0.784688,
        0.660969,
        0.548582,
        0.446046,
        0.353074
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.294337,
        0.34716,
        0.308408,
        0.236285,
        0.157381,
        0.081786,
        0.012888,
        -0.04678,
        -0.095505,
        -0.132523,
        -0.158431,
        -0.173847,
        -0.180525,
        -0.180427,
        -0.175143,
        -0.165023,
        -0.152599,
        -0.139322,
        -0.125836,
        -0.112402
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.198506,
        -0.306706,
        -0.364559,
        -0.401027,
        -0.428439,
        -0.462495,
        -0.505604,
        -0.549786,
        -0.589755,
        -0.622334,
        -0.643732,
        -0.64802,
        -0.638474,
        -0.617206,
        -0.585453,
        -0.543799,
        -0.499768,
        -0.453262,
        -0.40323,
        -0.351887
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.024924,
        0.056408,
        0.086309,
        0.11232,
        0.134323,
        0.15409,
        0.173217,
        0.191983,
        0.209999,
        0.22663,
        0.240988,
        0.251756,
        0.258351,
        0.260589,
        0.258477,
        0.252083,
        0.242314,
        0.229815,
        0.214935,
        0.198179
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012735,
        -0.031711,
        -0.052586,
        -0.073419,
        -0.093346,
        -0.11274,
        -0.132226,
        -0.151963,
        -0.171855,
        -0.19169,
        -0.211079,
        -0.229295,
        -0.245891,
        -0.260571,
        -0.273101,
        -0.283142,
        -0.290844,
        -0.296357,
        -0.29975,
        -0.301168
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.00017,
        0.000424,
        0.000703,
        0.000981,
        0.001248,
        0.001507,
        0.001767,
        0.002031,
        0.002297,
        0.002562,
        0.002821,
        0.003064,
        0.003286,
        0.003482,
        0.00365,
        0.003784,
        0.003887,
        0.003961,
        0.004006,
        0.004025
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.208888,
        -0.320686,
        -0.379186,
        -0.414749,
        -0.440454,
        -0.471866,
        -0.511574,
        -0.552143,
        -0.58864,
        -0.618103,
        -0.63696,
        -0.639606,
        -0.629183,
        -0.607702,
        -0.576336,
        -0.535648,
        -0.49278,
        -0.447627,
        -0.399178,
        -0.349538
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.202334,
        0.307742,
        0.364195,
        0.402787,
        0.436094,
        0.46407,
        0.488982,
        0.515719,
        0.546221,
        0.580253,
        0.617888,
        0.661001,
        0.707499,
        0.755613,
        0.804251,
        0.85211,
        0.895349,
        0.934429,
        0.970483,
        1.002663
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.06866,
        0.141374,
        0.195084,
        0.224425,
        0.231074,
        0.218685,
        0.191278,
        0.153079,
        0.108169,
        0.060208,
        0.012232,
        -0.03314,
        -0.074071,
        -0.109469,
        -0.138773,
        -0.161641,
        -0.178461,
        -0.18983,
        -0.196341,
        -0.198625
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.016019,
        -0.039889,
        -0.066145,
        -0.092351,
        -0.117417,
        -0.141811,
        -0.166322,
        -0.191149,
        -0.21617,
        -0.241119,
        -0.265508,
        -0.288422,
        -0.309297,
        -0.327763,
        -0.343524,
        -0.356153,
        -0.365842,
        -0.372776,
        -0.377044,
        -0.378828
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        19.306091,
        21.380579,
        22.391035,
        22.859855,
        23.040175,
        23.069987,
        23.012687,
        22.882519,
        22.688932,
        22.450317,
        22.166959,
        21.83882,
        21.479088,
        21.099588,
        20.711981,
        20.316767,
        19.923788,
        19.533432,
        19.144629,
        18.759911
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.27464,
        0.565497,
        0.780336,
        0.8977,
        0.924297,
        0.87474,
        0.765113,
        0.612317,
        0.432677,
        0.24083,
        0.048926,
        -0.132561,
        -0.296285,
        -0.437877,
        -0.555091,
        -0.646565,
        -0.713845,
        -0.759319,
        -0.785365,
        -0.794501
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.079305,
        -0.081606,
        -0.086329,
        -0.09284,
        -0.100329,
        -0.108038,
        -0.115333,
        -0.121713,
        -0.126819,
        -0.130429,
        -0.132439,
        -0.132849,
        -0.131747,
        -0.129281,
        -0.125636,
        -0.121013,
        -0.115629,
        -0.109685,
        -0.103361,
        -0.096821
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.06866,
        -0.141374,
        -0.195084,
        -0.224425,
        -0.231074,
        -0.218685,
        -0.191278,
        -0.153079,
        -0.108169,
        -0.060208,
        -0.012232,
        0.03314,
        0.074071,
        0.109469,
        0.138773,
        0.161641,
        0.178461,
        0.18983,
        0.196341,
        0.198625
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.352477,
        -1.390011,
        -1.312903,
        -1.139193,
        -0.894506,
        -0.604618,
        -0.292871,
        0.020678,
        0.319662,
        0.591961,
        0.829497,
        1.027641,
        1.184852,
        1.301959,
        1.381289,
        1.426279,
        1.441273,
        1.430792,
        1.399245,
        1.350878
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.291525,
        -0.052123,
        0.248792,
        0.591884,
        0.953549,
        1.312202,
        1.649978,
        1.953015,
        2.211546,
        2.419673,
        2.574947,
        2.677779,
        2.731035,
        2.739296,
        2.708165,
        2.643757,
        2.552484,
        2.440384,
        2.312925,
        2.175005
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.584773,
        1.669309,
        1.810483,
        1.993041,
        2.197294,
        2.4049,
        2.600484,
        2.771943,
        2.910618,
        3.011176,
        3.071264,
        3.091008,
        3.072662,
        3.019975,
        2.937582,
        2.830565,
        2.704279,
        2.56375,
        2.413507,
        2.257586
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.427487,
        1.468902,
        1.553916,
        1.671127,
        1.805918,
        1.944678,
        2.075985,
        2.190833,
        2.282751,
        2.347713,
        2.383894,
        2.391285,
        2.371454,
        2.327066,
        2.261442,
        2.178241,
        2.081325,
        1.974322,
        1.860504,
        1.742784
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        7.85383,
        11.343943,
        12.792028,
        13.262449,
        13.271189,
        13.065114,
        12.766889,
        12.438923,
        12.109483,
        11.787315,
        11.477224,
        11.183384,
        10.904877,
        10.638259,
        10.379591,
        10.123181,
        9.866655,
        9.611139,
        9.357956,
        9.106726
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -6.195885,
        -8.902587,
        -9.930484,
        -10.208774,
        -10.18088,
        -10.041836,
        -9.879409,
        -9.734797,
        -9.618705,
        -9.525926,
        -9.447883,
        -9.38055,
        -9.313299,
        -9.234355,
        -9.134584,
        -9.011476,
        -8.857105,
        -8.673048,
        -8.464091,
        -8.23194
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        138.904311,
        164.673301,
        174.381043,
        176.359824,
        174.678983,
        171.263532,
        167.047255,
        162.530437,
        157.981488,
        153.541644,
        149.29375,
        145.308718,
        141.608723,
        138.183278,
        135.017816,
        132.110585,
        129.414886,
        126.905054,
        124.566547,
        122.381948
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.196756,
        96.407677,
        95.115814,
        94.301567,
        93.833485,
        93.506699,
        93.183261,
        92.840741,
        92.49378,
        92.163106,
        91.874979,
        91.67063,
        91.562537,
        91.543427,
        91.624041,
        91.845641,
        92.142884,
        92.481889,
        92.846625,
        93.223213
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.829841,
        104.245742,
        106.699581,
        108.878773,
        110.635116,
        111.83446,
        112.438746,
        112.536926,
        112.252464,
        111.702665,
        110.994874,
        110.267456,
        109.59797,
        109.001414,
        108.491197,
        108.094126,
        107.771509,
        107.505378,
        107.292796,
        107.121857
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.914408,
        6.721796,
        7.003875,
        7.041798,
        6.96838,
        6.841373,
        6.687699,
        6.523753,
        6.359414,
        6.200311,
        6.05035,
        5.913284,
        5.790337,
        5.68095,
        5.583715,
        5.497955,
        5.419787,
        5.348419,
        5.283387,
        5.223932
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.421504,
        96.899781,
        95.814165,
        95.139646,
        94.763368,
        94.513186,
        94.274195,
        94.025359,
        93.775604,
        93.539217,
        93.336028,
        93.195691,
        93.126802,
        93.123313,
        93.194323,
        93.38175,
        93.629634,
        93.908377,
        94.201994,
        94.499915
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.210928,
        98.312249,
        97.630161,
        97.1755,
        96.883141,
        96.639301,
        96.372011,
        96.076713,
        95.770209,
        95.472189,
        95.200394,
        95.005307,
        94.914053,
        94.909816,
        94.980826,
        95.130321,
        95.322005,
        95.543794,
        95.788701,
        96.048086
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2250.80117,
        2361.340944,
        2409.502799,
        2429.803182,
        2438.00016,
        2441.708602,
        2443.80945,
        2444.294052,
        2442.808668,
        2439.545471,
        2433.831651,
        2425.117034,
        2413.692142,
        2399.952616,
        2384.42295,
        2367.143603,
        2348.663351,
        2329.110291,
        2308.55527,
        2287.250907
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -1.1182,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 1.1874,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -2.9773,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 9
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}