{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_200_pl",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $200/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_200",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 200.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "PL",
    "name": "Poland"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.651879,
        -2.417722,
        -2.754018,
        -2.895274,
        -2.950936,
        -3.042218,
        -3.206353,
        -3.396206,
        -3.586149,
        -3.762339,
        -3.917845,
        -4.049433,
        -4.149138,
        -4.216387,
        -4.096395,
        -3.932904,
        -3.762455,
        -3.588376,
        -3.414147,
        -3.242849
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.787034,
        -1.273831,
        -1.509278,
        -1.595906,
        -1.609372,
        -1.624285,
        -1.674806,
        -1.7503,
        -1.839104,
        -1.931932,
        -2.022375,
        -2.106326,
        -2.178013,
        -2.23482,
        -2.209412,
        -2.15043,
        -2.078247,
        -1.998807,
        -1.915703,
        -1.831255
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.486377,
        0.594566,
        0.539735,
        0.436823,
        0.329124,
        0.229233,
        0.138803,
        0.058383,
        -0.012348,
        -0.073577,
        -0.125155,
        -0.166373,
        -0.198696,
        -0.223292,
        -0.237627,
        -0.244718,
        -0.247354,
        -0.246955,
        -0.244388,
        -0.240933
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.631574,
        1.288165,
        1.750061,
        1.985226,
        2.025896,
        1.917883,
        1.703519,
        1.419653,
        1.096481,
        0.757818,
        0.422114,
        0.10401,
        -0.187122,
        -0.446145,
        -0.666589,
        -0.847044,
        -0.990236,
        -1.100237,
        -1.181379,
        -1.238902
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.310218,
        4.52844,
        4.793293,
        4.665589,
        4.412114,
        4.147184,
        3.912064,
        3.716387,
        3.554538,
        3.416832,
        3.295017,
        3.184408,
        3.078592,
        2.974181,
        2.869837,
        2.764678,
        2.6565,
        2.544739,
        2.429451,
        2.312133
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.203808,
        -0.497743,
        -0.823889,
        -1.154265,
        -1.475635,
        -1.79062,
        -2.106787,
        -2.426149,
        -2.747953,
        -3.070166,
        -3.390294,
        -3.705793,
        -4.013424,
        -4.310122,
        -4.574349,
        -4.803058,
        -4.997739,
        -5.160153,
        -5.292327,
        -5.396478
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.631557,
        -5.367353,
        -7.29192,
        -8.271773,
        -8.441234,
        -7.991179,
        -7.097997,
        -5.915221,
        -4.56867,
        -3.157575,
        -1.758809,
        -0.433373,
        0.779675,
        1.858937,
        2.777453,
        3.529349,
        4.125982,
        4.58432,
        4.922414,
        5.162092
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.178158,
        -4.837729,
        -5.662568,
        -6.038491,
        -6.164398,
        -6.271061,
        -6.441038,
        -6.607189,
        -6.741184,
        -6.834307,
        -6.888319,
        -6.909699,
        -6.892437,
        -6.839957,
        -6.476016,
        -6.061008,
        -5.659292,
        -5.274511,
        -4.910292,
        -4.569865
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.590247,
        1.64836,
        1.582067,
        1.416074,
        1.180922,
        0.904294,
        0.608791,
        0.312527,
        0.02919,
        -0.231649,
        -0.463906,
        -0.664343,
        -0.832207,
        -0.968392,
        -1.074779,
        -1.154411,
        -1.210859,
        -1.247663,
        -1.268121,
        -1.275216
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.422237,
        0.326828,
        0.197558,
        0.044873,
        -0.11932,
        -0.284848,
        -0.443937,
        -0.59102,
        -0.722385,
        -0.835881,
        -0.930605,
        -1.006621,
        -1.064771,
        -1.106397,
        -1.133122,
        -1.14691,
        -1.149808,
        -1.143736,
        -1.13041,
        -1.111335
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.332758,
        -0.366943,
        -0.416788,
        -0.477456,
        -0.54331,
        -0.60952,
        -0.672398,
        -0.729314,
        -0.778557,
        -0.819168,
        -0.850784,
        -0.873501,
        -0.887781,
        -0.89432,
        -0.893939,
        -0.887622,
        -0.876387,
        -0.861182,
        -0.842854,
        -0.822141
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.33996,
        -0.77832,
        -1.207314,
        -1.58787,
        -1.911052,
        -2.195496,
        -2.464481,
        -2.726934,
        -2.984613,
        -3.235912,
        -3.477932,
        -3.707481,
        -3.920121,
        -4.111989,
        -4.246508,
        -4.324524,
        -4.354551,
        -4.344247,
        -4.300614,
        -4.230044
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.018257,
        -0.010012,
        0.023998,
        0.067153,
        0.101531,
        0.111762,
        0.08551,
        0.013571,
        -0.110288,
        -0.289643,
        -0.525722,
        -0.817678,
        -1.162711,
        -1.556504,
        -1.991788,
        -2.459853,
        -2.951603,
        -3.458131,
        -3.971039,
        -4.482626
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -5.435222,
        -9.248387,
        -10.443409,
        -10.997742,
        -11.135336,
        -11.273601,
        -11.495032,
        -11.637652,
        -11.695975,
        -11.678434,
        -11.599993,
        -11.476971,
        -11.296348,
        -11.071681,
        -10.225109,
        -9.459707,
        -8.766753,
        -8.116287,
        -7.511735,
        -6.953531
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.027176,
        -0.073418,
        -0.125635,
        -0.180624,
        -0.2363,
        -0.292668,
        -0.350144,
        -0.408332,
        -0.466812,
        -0.525204,
        -0.583204,
        -0.640589,
        -0.697071,
        -0.752429,
        -0.803554,
        -0.850853,
        -0.894687,
        -0.935268,
        -0.972827,
        -1.007595
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.804656,
        -6.473871,
        -7.310386,
        -7.698419,
        -7.794735,
        -7.89152,
        -8.046522,
        -8.146357,
        -8.187183,
        -8.174904,
        -8.119995,
        -8.03388,
        -7.907443,
        -7.750177,
        -7.157576,
        -6.621795,
        -6.136727,
        -5.681401,
        -5.258214,
        -4.867471
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.320562,
        0.469418,
        0.535022,
        0.562895,
        0.574261,
        0.593057,
        0.626581,
        0.66532,
        0.704098,
        0.740115,
        0.771968,
        0.798989,
        0.819578,
        0.83362,
        0.810163,
        0.777952,
        0.744309,
        0.709905,
        0.675438,
        0.64153
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.319179,
        -1.921537,
        -2.171198,
        -2.239757,
        -2.211409,
        -2.11783,
        -1.979478,
        -1.818891,
        -1.650691,
        -1.484108,
        -1.325066,
        -1.177967,
        -1.046027,
        -0.929492,
        -0.847716,
        -0.783234,
        -0.729272,
        -0.684102,
        -0.646496,
        -0.614913
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.340464,
        0.416196,
        0.377815,
        0.305776,
        0.230387,
        0.160463,
        0.097162,
        0.040868,
        -0.008644,
        -0.051504,
        -0.087608,
        -0.116461,
        -0.139087,
        -0.156304,
        -0.166339,
        -0.171303,
        -0.173148,
        -0.172869,
        -0.171072,
        -0.168653
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.961685,
        -1.408255,
        -1.605065,
        -1.688686,
        -1.722784,
        -1.779171,
        -1.879743,
        -1.99596,
        -2.112293,
        -2.220346,
        -2.315905,
        -2.396968,
        -2.458733,
        -2.500861,
        -2.430488,
        -2.333856,
        -2.232926,
        -2.129714,
        -2.026315,
        -1.924591
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.167203,
        0.373669,
        0.566935,
        0.73028,
        0.861886,
        0.97262,
        1.074631,
        1.17252,
        1.267237,
        1.358117,
        1.443944,
        1.523453,
        1.594863,
        1.656741,
        1.692316,
        1.703203,
        1.694345,
        1.669895,
        1.633403,
        1.587921
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.066452,
        -0.158456,
        -0.255873,
        -0.349562,
        -0.435557,
        -0.512972,
        -0.582149,
        -0.643501,
        -0.697445,
        -0.74439,
        -0.784691,
        -0.818628,
        -0.846166,
        -0.867248,
        -0.882381,
        -0.891925,
        -0.896535,
        -0.896798,
        -0.893253,
        -0.88639
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001846,
        0.004402,
        0.007108,
        0.00971,
        0.012099,
        0.014249,
        0.016171,
        0.017875,
        0.019373,
        0.020678,
        0.021797,
        0.02274,
        0.023505,
        0.02409,
        0.024511,
        0.024776,
        0.024904,
        0.024911,
        0.024813,
        0.024622
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.035728,
        -1.515912,
        -1.726769,
        -1.815337,
        -1.850237,
        -1.907471,
        -2.010383,
        -2.129421,
        -2.248516,
        -2.358986,
        -2.456489,
        -2.538994,
        -2.60151,
        -2.643675,
        -2.56844,
        -2.465931,
        -2.359059,
        -2.249912,
        -2.14067,
        -2.033266
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.104912,
        -4.406347,
        -4.851782,
        -4.908429,
        -4.800908,
        -4.651355,
        -4.508721,
        -4.376706,
        -4.253965,
        -4.137671,
        -4.025726,
        -3.917808,
        -3.810381,
        -3.701975,
        -3.548441,
        -3.389713,
        -3.234054,
        -3.081508,
        -2.93266,
        -2.788332
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.157893,
        0.322041,
        0.437515,
        0.496306,
        0.506474,
        0.479471,
        0.42588,
        0.354913,
        0.27412,
        0.189455,
        0.105529,
        0.026002,
        -0.04678,
        -0.111536,
        -0.166647,
        -0.211761,
        -0.247559,
        -0.275059,
        -0.295345,
        -0.309726
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.073835,
        -0.176062,
        -0.284303,
        -0.388402,
        -0.483952,
        -0.569969,
        -0.646832,
        -0.715001,
        -0.774939,
        -0.8271,
        -0.871879,
        -0.909587,
        -0.940184,
        -0.963609,
        -0.980423,
        -0.991028,
        -0.996149,
        -0.996443,
        -0.992503,
        -0.984877
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        19.306091,
        21.380579,
        22.391035,
        22.859855,
        23.040175,
        23.069987,
        23.012687,
        22.882519,
        22.688932,
        22.450317,
        22.166959,
        21.83882,
        21.479088,
        21.099588,
        20.711981,
        20.316767,
        19.923788,
        19.533432,
        19.144629,
        18.759911
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.631574,
        1.288165,
        1.750061,
        1.985226,
        2.025896,
        1.917883,
        1.703519,
        1.419653,
        1.096481,
        0.757818,
        0.422114,
        0.10401,
        -0.187122,
        -0.446145,
        -0.666589,
        -0.847044,
        -0.990236,
        -1.100237,
        -1.181379,
        -1.238902
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.260243,
        -0.265762,
        -0.276742,
        -0.291562,
        -0.308332,
        -0.325433,
        -0.341625,
        -0.356024,
        -0.368049,
        -0.377375,
        -0.383871,
        -0.387564,
        -0.388601,
        -0.387205,
        -0.383645,
        -0.378243,
        -0.371332,
        -0.363223,
        -0.354192,
        -0.34448
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.157893,
        -0.322041,
        -0.437515,
        -0.496306,
        -0.506474,
        -0.479471,
        -0.42588,
        -0.354913,
        -0.27412,
        -0.189455,
        -0.105529,
        -0.026002,
        0.04678,
        0.111536,
        0.166647,
        0.211761,
        0.247559,
        0.275059,
        0.295345,
        0.309726
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.021469,
        -3.131885,
        -3.005927,
        -2.69054,
        -2.243751,
        -1.718159,
        -1.156703,
        -0.593802,
        -0.055462,
        0.440133,
        0.881421,
        1.262251,
        1.581193,
        1.839945,
        2.04208,
        2.193381,
        2.300632,
        2.370559,
        2.40943,
        2.422909
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.900068,
        -1.470727,
        -0.889012,
        -0.201927,
        0.53694,
        1.281815,
        1.997718,
        2.65959,
        3.250733,
        3.761467,
        4.18772,
        4.529794,
        4.79147,
        4.978786,
        5.099047,
        5.161094,
        5.174138,
        5.146811,
        5.086845,
        5.001008
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.728613,
        3.008934,
        3.417664,
        3.915135,
        4.455139,
        4.998061,
        5.513665,
        5.980377,
        6.384165,
        6.717175,
        6.976425,
        7.162708,
        7.279808,
        7.333424,
        7.330301,
        7.278501,
        7.186372,
        7.061694,
        6.911406,
        6.741553
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        4.684377,
        4.783713,
        4.981357,
        5.248112,
        5.549979,
        5.857791,
        6.149255,
        6.408426,
        6.624886,
        6.792745,
        6.909687,
        6.97616,
        6.994811,
        6.969689,
        6.905614,
        6.808377,
        6.683979,
        6.538013,
        6.375457,
        6.200643
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.170647,
        -2.945307,
        -3.041805,
        -2.882672,
        -2.667446,
        -2.476125,
        -2.332528,
        -2.238068,
        -2.182987,
        -2.155371,
        -2.14433,
        -2.143976,
        -2.147867,
        -2.151814,
        -2.152765,
        -2.149568,
        -2.137377,
        -2.115,
        -2.082511,
        -2.040773
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.627359,
        5.077766,
        5.504407,
        5.469768,
        5.240273,
        4.940123,
        4.62174,
        4.304427,
        3.995327,
        3.697529,
        3.413504,
        3.146319,
        2.90041,
        2.680563,
        2.491494,
        2.33124,
        2.200019,
        2.094653,
        2.011187,
        1.948392
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        138.904311,
        164.673301,
        174.381043,
        176.359824,
        174.678983,
        171.263532,
        167.047255,
        162.530437,
        157.981488,
        153.541644,
        149.29375,
        145.308718,
        141.608723,
        138.183278,
        135.017816,
        132.110585,
        129.414886,
        126.905054,
        124.566547,
        122.381948
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.196756,
        96.407677,
        95.115814,
        94.301567,
        93.833485,
        93.506699,
        93.183261,
        92.840741,
        92.49378,
        92.163106,
        91.874979,
        91.67063,
        91.562537,
        91.543427,
        91.624041,
        91.845641,
        92.142884,
        92.481889,
        92.846625,
        93.223213
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.829841,
        104.245742,
        106.699581,
        108.878773,
        110.635116,
        111.83446,
        112.438746,
        112.536926,
        112.252464,
        111.702665,
        110.994874,
        110.267456,
        109.59797,
        109.001414,
        108.491197,
        108.094126,
        107.771509,
        107.505378,
        107.292796,
        107.121857
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.914408,
        6.721796,
        7.003875,
        7.041798,
        6.96838,
        6.841373,
        6.687699,
        6.523753,
        6.359414,
        6.200311,
        6.05035,
        5.913284,
        5.790337,
        5.68095,
        5.583715,
        5.497955,
        5.419787,
        5.348419,
        5.283387,
        5.223932
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.421504,
        96.899781,
        95.814165,
        95.139646,
        94.763368,
        94.513186,
        94.274195,
        94.025359,
        93.775604,
        93.539217,
        93.336028,
        93.195691,
        93.126802,
        93.123313,
        93.194323,
        93.38175,
        93.629634,
        93.908377,
        94.201994,
        94.499915
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.210928,
        98.312249,
        97.630161,
        97.1755,
        96.883141,
        96.639301,
        96.372011,
        96.076713,
        95.770209,
        95.472189,
        95.200394,
        95.005307,
        94.914053,
        94.909816,
        94.980826,
        95.130321,
        95.322005,
        95.543794,
        95.788701,
        96.048086
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2250.80117,
        2361.340944,
        2409.502799,
        2429.803182,
        2438.00016,
        2441.708602,
        2443.80945,
        2444.294052,
        2442.808668,
        2439.545471,
        2433.831651,
        2425.117034,
        2413.692142,
        2399.952616,
        2384.42295,
        2367.143603,
        2348.663351,
        2329.110291,
        2308.55527,
        2287.250907
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -4.2164,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 14,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 2.4356,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -6.9097,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 12
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}