{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_200_ru",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $200/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_200",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 200.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "RU",
    "name": "Russia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.829581,
        3.745245,
        3.664172,
        3.560901,
        3.425235,
        3.250542,
        3.043328,
        2.820774,
        2.599563,
        2.394105,
        2.216344,
        2.076096,
        1.977356,
        1.918438,
        1.896953,
        1.82186,
        1.657607,
        1.526374,
        1.421816,
        1.337523
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.670837,
        1.907062,
        1.992788,
        2.015601,
        1.998372,
        1.946332,
        1.865028,
        1.763871,
        1.652661,
        1.540464,
        1.435327,
        1.344243,
        1.271628,
        1.218936,
        1.18647,
        1.134649,
        1.041453,
        0.955744,
        0.882111,
        0.820324
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.194829,
        0.437317,
        0.499949,
        0.489188,
        0.452347,
        0.402686,
        0.345476,
        0.285297,
        0.226456,
        0.173119,
        0.128072,
        0.092728,
        0.066774,
        0.049209,
        0.039304,
        0.034061,
        0.029348,
        0.027247,
        0.027498,
        0.029389
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.512702,
        1.181062,
        1.742435,
        2.125897,
        2.341768,
        2.416142,
        2.376295,
        2.249093,
        2.060275,
        1.834086,
        1.592311,
        1.353953,
        1.133299,
        0.939353,
        0.777332,
        0.645515,
        0.536102,
        0.447187,
        0.377491,
        0.32495
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -12.748903,
        -17.834623,
        -20.093848,
        -20.916245,
        -21.011869,
        -20.730858,
        -20.25568,
        -19.690481,
        -19.091759,
        -18.483097,
        -17.877268,
        -17.293909,
        -16.746668,
        -16.238438,
        -15.767569,
        -15.32437,
        -14.891462,
        -14.466119,
        -14.050102,
        -13.641896
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.583924,
        1.102807,
        1.562672,
        1.967159,
        2.318155,
        2.616011,
        2.861582,
        3.057825,
        3.209582,
        3.32312,
        3.405693,
        3.465204,
        3.509343,
        3.544827,
        3.577433,
        3.59855,
        3.594834,
        3.57273,
        3.537273,
        3.492199
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.602192,
        -3.690817,
        -5.445109,
        -6.643429,
        -7.318026,
        -7.550445,
        -7.425923,
        -7.028415,
        -6.438358,
        -5.73152,
        -4.975971,
        -4.231104,
        -3.541561,
        -2.93548,
        -2.429162,
        -2.017234,
        -1.675318,
        -1.397459,
        -1.179661,
        -1.01547
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        6.531143,
        5.952624,
        5.486637,
        5.127583,
        4.849274,
        4.619717,
        4.427678,
        4.278653,
        4.177387,
        4.126933,
        4.128743,
        4.183152,
        4.285654,
        4.426983,
        4.599547,
        4.637148,
        4.477845,
        4.344878,
        4.23053,
        4.12654
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.868174,
        2.061621,
        2.143249,
        2.124483,
        2.02799,
        1.876932,
        1.692333,
        1.492463,
        1.292016,
        1.101494,
        0.928132,
        0.776279,
        0.647654,
        0.541874,
        0.45721,
        0.390974,
        0.340348,
        0.303174,
        0.277257,
        0.260355
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.348362,
        1.33708,
        1.29113,
        1.21638,
        1.12211,
        1.016957,
        0.908143,
        0.801442,
        0.701222,
        0.610531,
        0.531182,
        0.463874,
        0.408345,
        0.36361,
        0.328235,
        0.300532,
        0.278912,
        0.262189,
        0.249288,
        0.239212
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.789722,
        0.78062,
        0.754466,
        0.713944,
        0.663513,
        0.607376,
        0.549088,
        0.491524,
        0.436886,
        0.386734,
        0.342024,
        0.303164,
        0.270088,
        0.24237,
        0.21936,
        0.200275,
        0.184374,
        0.171111,
        0.159985,
        0.150528
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.698727,
        1.28032,
        1.76208,
        2.15449,
        2.464691,
        2.697525,
        2.858228,
        2.95433,
        2.995261,
        2.991677,
        2.954864,
        2.896276,
        2.826466,
        2.754182,
        2.686514,
        2.61317,
        2.519054,
        2.413365,
        2.302811,
        2.191957
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.068761,
        0.227354,
        0.495878,
        0.86639,
        1.320303,
        1.83599,
        2.391303,
        2.964943,
        3.537529,
        4.092428,
        4.616384,
        5.099801,
        5.536679,
        5.924196,
        6.262201,
        6.55119,
        6.791042,
        6.98255,
        7.12755,
        7.228691
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        10.02882,
        8.750326,
        7.689946,
        6.802932,
        6.063574,
        5.418931,
        4.86007,
        4.406027,
        4.06475,
        3.838155,
        3.724715,
        3.721502,
        3.812497,
        3.973734,
        4.189992,
        4.120321,
        3.732168,
        3.528187,
        3.363981,
        3.224601
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.050144,
        0.093896,
        0.132345,
        0.16636,
        0.196678,
        0.223773,
        0.248073,
        0.270103,
        0.290427,
        0.309618,
        0.328241,
        0.346849,
        0.365911,
        0.38578,
        0.40673,
        0.427331,
        0.445992,
        0.463633,
        0.480453,
        0.496576
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        7.020174,
        6.125228,
        5.382962,
        4.762052,
        4.244502,
        3.793252,
        3.402049,
        3.084219,
        2.845325,
        2.686708,
        2.6073,
        2.605051,
        2.668748,
        2.781614,
        2.932994,
        2.884225,
        2.612517,
        2.469731,
        2.354786,
        2.257221
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.817978,
        4.360105,
        4.944044,
        5.073479,
        4.992831,
        4.816692,
        4.598519,
        4.364955,
        4.129194,
        3.897279,
        3.672257,
        3.456983,
        3.252179,
        3.057453,
        2.872467,
        2.714011,
        2.585109,
        2.461756,
        2.344077,
        2.232058
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.194091,
        0.377568,
        0.551279,
        0.714578,
        0.866109,
        1.004053,
        1.126868,
        1.233882,
        1.325301,
        1.402112,
        1.465964,
        1.519048,
        1.56378,
        1.602488,
        1.637351,
        1.665945,
        1.684155,
        1.694148,
        1.697699,
        1.696198
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        10.514125,
        15.238299,
        16.968237,
        17.273628,
        16.914036,
        16.243007,
        15.429013,
        14.5625,
        13.692349,
        12.844985,
        12.036261,
        11.279504,
        10.57808,
        9.929432,
        9.331222,
        8.790816,
        8.300468,
        7.846802,
        7.426543,
        7.036221
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.13638,
        0.306122,
        0.349964,
        0.342432,
        0.316643,
        0.28188,
        0.241833,
        0.199708,
        0.158519,
        0.121183,
        0.08965,
        0.06491,
        0.046742,
        0.034446,
        0.027513,
        0.023843,
        0.020544,
        0.019073,
        0.019249,
        0.020572
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.31383,
        2.270258,
        2.22432,
        2.162997,
        2.081245,
        1.975561,
        1.850071,
        1.715229,
        1.581138,
        1.456502,
        1.348529,
        1.263155,
        1.202795,
        1.166435,
        1.152639,
        1.106788,
        1.007521,
        0.928132,
        0.864806,
        0.81369
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.402106,
        -0.69483,
        -0.905861,
        -1.05329,
        -1.149617,
        -1.20352,
        -1.222189,
        -1.212823,
        -1.182572,
        -1.13831,
        -1.086448,
        -1.032826,
        -0.982242,
        -0.938118,
        -0.902768,
        -0.868371,
        -0.825327,
        -0.779265,
        -0.733739,
        -0.690744
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.013832,
        0.026175,
        0.037306,
        0.047406,
        0.05661,
        0.065002,
        0.072642,
        0.079602,
        0.085954,
        0.091769,
        0.097114,
        0.102061,
        0.10667,
        0.110988,
        0.115052,
        0.118578,
        0.12119,
        0.123007,
        0.124136,
        0.124668
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.10627,
        2.059884,
        2.015295,
        1.958496,
        1.883879,
        1.787798,
        1.67383,
        1.551425,
        1.42976,
        1.316758,
        1.218989,
        1.141853,
        1.087546,
        1.055141,
        1.043324,
        1.002023,
        0.911684,
        0.839506,
        0.781999,
        0.735638
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.412501,
        4.40597,
        4.873368,
        5.059857,
        5.095028,
        5.044095,
        4.944424,
        4.82069,
        4.687811,
        4.552917,
        4.420574,
        4.297218,
        4.187297,
        4.091554,
        4.009305,
        3.919471,
        3.810662,
        3.707009,
        3.608063,
        3.512434
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.128175,
        0.295265,
        0.435609,
        0.531474,
        0.585442,
        0.604036,
        0.594074,
        0.562273,
        0.515069,
        0.458522,
        0.398078,
        0.338488,
        0.283325,
        0.234838,
        0.194333,
        0.161379,
        0.134025,
        0.111797,
        0.094373,
        0.081238
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.045352,
        0.085819,
        0.122316,
        0.15543,
        0.185608,
        0.213121,
        0.238171,
        0.260989,
        0.281816,
        0.300881,
        0.318408,
        0.334625,
        0.349738,
        0.363895,
        0.377221,
        0.388782,
        0.397345,
        0.403303,
        0.407004,
        0.408746
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        19.306091,
        21.380579,
        22.391035,
        22.859855,
        23.040175,
        23.069987,
        23.012687,
        22.882519,
        22.688932,
        22.450317,
        22.166959,
        21.83882,
        21.479088,
        21.099588,
        20.711981,
        20.316767,
        19.923788,
        19.533432,
        19.144629,
        18.759911
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.512702,
        1.181062,
        1.742435,
        2.125897,
        2.341768,
        2.416142,
        2.376295,
        2.249093,
        2.060275,
        1.834086,
        1.592311,
        1.353953,
        1.133299,
        0.939353,
        0.777332,
        0.645515,
        0.536102,
        0.447187,
        0.377491,
        0.32495
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.269091,
        0.264817,
        0.254974,
        0.240454,
        0.222739,
        0.203226,
        0.183093,
        0.163292,
        0.144552,
        0.127385,
        0.112103,
        0.098835,
        0.087554,
        0.078112,
        0.070285,
        0.063809,
        0.05843,
        0.053964,
        0.050237,
        0.047092
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.128175,
        -0.295265,
        -0.435609,
        -0.531474,
        -0.585442,
        -0.604036,
        -0.594074,
        -0.562273,
        -0.515069,
        -0.458522,
        -0.398078,
        -0.338488,
        -0.283325,
        -0.234838,
        -0.194333,
        -0.161379,
        -0.134025,
        -0.111797,
        -0.094373,
        -0.081238
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.549531,
        -3.91708,
        -4.072173,
        -4.036519,
        -3.853182,
        -3.566171,
        -3.215433,
        -2.835679,
        -2.45483,
        -2.092838,
        -1.76345,
        -1.47493,
        -1.230542,
        -1.029561,
        -0.8687,
        -0.742851,
        -0.646662,
        -0.57603,
        -0.526788,
        -0.494674
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -6.067631,
        -6.016862,
        -5.810083,
        -5.47371,
        -5.049497,
        -4.576308,
        -4.086643,
        -3.606488,
        -3.1555,
        -2.747392,
        -2.390317,
        -2.087433,
        -1.837553,
        -1.636246,
        -1.477056,
        -1.352392,
        -1.255102,
        -1.17985,
        -1.121794,
        -1.076452
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -6.475723,
        -6.401082,
        -6.186624,
        -5.854343,
        -5.440803,
        -4.980481,
        -4.502522,
        -4.030493,
        -3.582462,
        -3.171223,
        -2.8046,
        -2.485948,
        -2.214721,
        -1.987436,
        -1.798753,
        -1.642255,
        -1.511868,
        -1.40311,
        -1.311879,
        -1.234328
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.843633,
        -4.766707,
        -4.589541,
        -4.328179,
        -4.009307,
        -3.658063,
        -3.295669,
        -2.939257,
        -2.601928,
        -2.292923,
        -2.017847,
        -1.779035,
        -1.575976,
        -1.406011,
        -1.265134,
        -1.148556,
        -1.051746,
        -0.971343,
        -0.904273,
        -0.847652
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        14.927966,
        20.795179,
        23.475755,
        24.523096,
        24.734467,
        24.509004,
        24.057686,
        23.500948,
        22.901756,
        22.283701,
        21.663976,
        21.063348,
        20.494172,
        19.960473,
        19.459599,
        18.976273,
        18.495641,
        18.016132,
        17.539599,
        17.065986
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -12.431763,
        -17.285297,
        -19.382734,
        -20.112067,
        -20.18371,
        -19.937919,
        -19.546004,
        -19.102442,
        -18.65097,
        -18.2024,
        -17.75878,
        -17.331998,
        -16.92485,
        -16.532057,
        -16.145912,
        -15.757807,
        -15.347942,
        -14.916205,
        -14.468365,
        -14.005637
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        138.904311,
        164.673301,
        174.381043,
        176.359824,
        174.678983,
        171.263532,
        167.047255,
        162.530437,
        157.981488,
        153.541644,
        149.29375,
        145.308718,
        141.608723,
        138.183278,
        135.017816,
        132.110585,
        129.414886,
        126.905054,
        124.566547,
        122.381948
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.196756,
        96.407677,
        95.115814,
        94.301567,
        93.833485,
        93.506699,
        93.183261,
        92.840741,
        92.49378,
        92.163106,
        91.874979,
        91.67063,
        91.562537,
        91.543427,
        91.624041,
        91.845641,
        92.142884,
        92.481889,
        92.846625,
        93.223213
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.829841,
        104.245742,
        106.699581,
        108.878773,
        110.635116,
        111.83446,
        112.438746,
        112.536926,
        112.252464,
        111.702665,
        110.994874,
        110.267456,
        109.59797,
        109.001414,
        108.491197,
        108.094126,
        107.771509,
        107.505378,
        107.292796,
        107.121857
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.914408,
        6.721796,
        7.003875,
        7.041798,
        6.96838,
        6.841373,
        6.687699,
        6.523753,
        6.359414,
        6.200311,
        6.05035,
        5.913284,
        5.790337,
        5.68095,
        5.583715,
        5.497955,
        5.419787,
        5.348419,
        5.283387,
        5.223932
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.421504,
        96.899781,
        95.814165,
        95.139646,
        94.763368,
        94.513186,
        94.274195,
        94.025359,
        93.775604,
        93.539217,
        93.336028,
        93.195691,
        93.126802,
        93.123313,
        93.194323,
        93.38175,
        93.629634,
        93.908377,
        94.201994,
        94.499915
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.210928,
        98.312249,
        97.630161,
        97.1755,
        96.883141,
        96.639301,
        96.372011,
        96.076713,
        95.770209,
        95.472189,
        95.200394,
        95.005307,
        94.914053,
        94.909816,
        94.980826,
        95.130321,
        95.322005,
        95.543794,
        95.788701,
        96.048086
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2250.80117,
        2361.340944,
        2409.502799,
        2429.803182,
        2438.00016,
        2441.708602,
        2443.80945,
        2444.294052,
        2442.808668,
        2439.545471,
        2433.831651,
        2425.117034,
        2413.692142,
        2399.952616,
        2384.42295,
        2367.143603,
        2348.663351,
        2329.110291,
        2308.55527,
        2287.250907
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 3.8296,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 1,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 3.7275,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 6.5311,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 1
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}