{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_200_se",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $200/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_200",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 200.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "SE",
    "name": "Sweden"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.212975,
        -1.804857,
        -2.07206,
        -2.186595,
        -2.22942,
        -2.264185,
        -2.351206,
        -2.458223,
        -2.567597,
        -2.669801,
        -2.760547,
        -2.837971,
        -2.896095,
        -2.934196,
        -2.958829,
        -2.970038,
        -2.973964,
        -2.954064,
        -2.871044,
        -2.755505
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.619646,
        -1.018095,
        -1.217014,
        -1.295786,
        -1.31251,
        -1.313309,
        -1.338048,
        -1.380549,
        -1.432799,
        -1.48841,
        -1.543245,
        -1.594687,
        -1.638413,
        -1.672451,
        -1.698806,
        -1.717374,
        -1.730697,
        -1.731223,
        -1.699201,
        -1.645277
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.454056,
        0.574777,
        0.536756,
        0.441948,
        0.332366,
        0.225229,
        0.126758,
        0.040706,
        -0.03125,
        -0.088938,
        -0.133055,
        -0.164565,
        -0.18596,
        -0.199543,
        -0.206981,
        -0.209078,
        -0.207588,
        -0.203338,
        -0.196541,
        -0.188316
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.440321,
        0.932817,
        1.316166,
        1.551334,
        1.64563,
        1.622093,
        1.506579,
        1.32488,
        1.100605,
        0.85396,
        0.601387,
        0.355876,
        0.126176,
        -0.082483,
        -0.267359,
        -0.427037,
        -0.562053,
        -0.673608,
        -0.762698,
        -0.831109
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.868718,
        1.318151,
        1.515171,
        1.570153,
        1.550713,
        1.502597,
        1.4506,
        1.401772,
        1.356738,
        1.314605,
        1.273747,
        1.231204,
        1.184979,
        1.135021,
        1.080563,
        1.019033,
        0.957855,
        0.900757,
        0.847544,
        0.797505
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.144901,
        -0.357499,
        -0.595758,
        -0.838824,
        -1.076229,
        -1.305722,
        -1.532569,
        -1.758321,
        -1.9827,
        -2.204606,
        -2.422718,
        -2.635743,
        -2.841872,
        -3.039381,
        -3.227441,
        -3.405291,
        -3.572927,
        -3.728386,
        -3.865175,
        -3.980694
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.752005,
        -5.830107,
        -8.226037,
        -9.695835,
        -10.285187,
        -10.138078,
        -9.416117,
        -8.2805,
        -6.878783,
        -5.337253,
        -3.758667,
        -2.224228,
        0.805263,
        1.102997,
        1.670996,
        2.668979,
        3.512828,
        4.210052,
        4.766861,
        5.19443
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.770372,
        -5.756556,
        -6.728136,
        -7.167608,
        -7.31722,
        -7.377043,
        -7.540007,
        -7.723197,
        -7.887736,
        -8.01789,
        -8.112085,
        -8.174473,
        -8.193732,
        -8.171267,
        -8.128646,
        -8.067316,
        -8.00463,
        -7.889108,
        -7.60077,
        -7.229583
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.292477,
        1.375013,
        1.365156,
        1.275808,
        1.126376,
        0.936445,
        0.723373,
        0.50163,
        0.282641,
        0.074809,
        -0.116138,
        -0.286648,
        -0.435021,
        -0.560963,
        -0.665115,
        -0.748759,
        -0.813647,
        -0.861728,
        -0.895035,
        -0.915673
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.488574,
        0.42249,
        0.330064,
        0.21743,
        0.092557,
        -0.03706,
        -0.165168,
        -0.286887,
        -0.398691,
        -0.498286,
        -0.584425,
        -0.656725,
        -0.715483,
        -0.761458,
        -0.795699,
        -0.819406,
        -0.833863,
        -0.84033,
        -0.840013,
        -0.83407
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.1675,
        -0.193488,
        -0.231258,
        -0.2781,
        -0.330326,
        -0.384432,
        -0.437489,
        -0.487213,
        -0.531966,
        -0.570697,
        -0.602863,
        -0.628328,
        -0.647284,
        -0.660138,
        -0.667429,
        -0.669763,
        -0.667783,
        -0.662117,
        -0.653361,
        -0.642088
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.19933,
        -0.467307,
        -0.739513,
        -0.989894,
        -1.209858,
        -1.4029,
        -1.582289,
        -1.753775,
        -1.919206,
        -2.078487,
        -2.23076,
        -2.374916,
        -2.50894,
        -2.630946,
        -2.740413,
        -2.836865,
        -2.920929,
        -2.990288,
        -3.036232,
        -3.056575
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.009594,
        0.014692,
        0.075552,
        0.159176,
        0.248433,
        0.327565,
        0.383393,
        0.405793,
        0.387787,
        0.325335,
        0.216976,
        0.063386,
        -0.132991,
        -0.368468,
        -0.638608,
        -0.938537,
        -1.263175,
        -1.607354,
        -1.965603,
        -2.332413
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.960644,
        -6.891097,
        -7.882487,
        -8.403826,
        -8.597711,
        -8.657937,
        -8.787975,
        -8.842949,
        -8.823094,
        -8.739927,
        -8.611151,
        -8.453235,
        -8.258393,
        -8.03776,
        -7.821113,
        -7.604143,
        -7.409545,
        -7.166543,
        -6.740891,
        -6.285537
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.019803,
        -0.054259,
        -0.093671,
        -0.13569,
        -0.178679,
        -0.221969,
        -0.265908,
        -0.310123,
        -0.354239,
        -0.397938,
        -0.440994,
        -0.48326,
        -0.524552,
        -0.564741,
        -0.603846,
        -0.641867,
        -0.678915,
        -0.714748,
        -0.748452,
        -0.77988
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.772451,
        -4.823768,
        -5.517741,
        -5.882678,
        -6.018398,
        -6.060556,
        -6.151582,
        -6.190064,
        -6.176165,
        -6.117949,
        -6.027805,
        -5.917265,
        -5.780875,
        -5.626432,
        -5.474779,
        -5.3229,
        -5.186682,
        -5.01658,
        -4.718624,
        -4.399876
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.246852,
        0.365837,
        0.41879,
        0.441204,
        0.449528,
        0.456653,
        0.475014,
        0.497647,
        0.520792,
        0.542442,
        0.561722,
        0.578301,
        0.590928,
        0.599434,
        0.605236,
        0.608425,
        0.610185,
        0.606938,
        0.590305,
        0.566763
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.06795,
        0.164475,
        0.269181,
        0.372908,
        0.471683,
        0.565417,
        0.657485,
        0.749111,
        0.840393,
        0.930867,
        1.019861,
        1.106655,
        1.190247,
        1.269684,
        1.344481,
        1.414202,
        1.478815,
        1.537332,
        1.586557,
        1.625328
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.393301,
        -2.021775,
        -2.272228,
        -2.335059,
        -2.305741,
        -2.229714,
        -2.12692,
        -2.013987,
        -1.899426,
        -1.787466,
        -1.68012,
        -1.578491,
        -1.483695,
        -1.395803,
        -1.313462,
        -1.235522,
        -1.161217,
        -1.092199,
        -1.032835,
        -0.980081
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.317839,
        0.402344,
        0.375729,
        0.309364,
        0.232656,
        0.157661,
        0.088731,
        0.028494,
        -0.021875,
        -0.062257,
        -0.093139,
        -0.115196,
        -0.130172,
        -0.13968,
        -0.144887,
        -0.146355,
        -0.145312,
        -0.142336,
        -0.137579,
        -0.131821
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.707178,
        -1.053237,
        -1.210047,
        -1.277932,
        -1.304077,
        -1.326041,
        -1.379712,
        -1.44555,
        -1.512858,
        -1.575855,
        -1.63192,
        -1.679888,
        -1.716149,
        -1.740274,
        -1.756201,
        -1.763953,
        -1.767244,
        -1.756162,
        -1.707138,
        -1.638542
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.188011,
        0.430162,
        0.665299,
        0.871161,
        1.042489,
        1.18494,
        1.312389,
        1.430936,
        1.542726,
        1.648,
        1.746285,
        1.836913,
        1.918425,
        1.989541,
        2.050251,
        2.100557,
        2.14141,
        2.171008,
        2.181818,
        2.172558
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.064742,
        -0.155644,
        -0.252607,
        -0.346412,
        -0.432956,
        -0.511126,
        -0.581119,
        -0.643269,
        -0.697921,
        -0.74543,
        -0.786143,
        -0.820374,
        -0.848146,
        -0.869471,
        -0.884733,
        -0.894277,
        -0.898755,
        -0.898771,
        -0.894978,
        -0.887898
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000827,
        0.001987,
        0.003225,
        0.004423,
        0.005528,
        0.006526,
        0.00742,
        0.008214,
        0.008912,
        0.009518,
        0.010038,
        0.010475,
        0.01083,
        0.011102,
        0.011297,
        0.011419,
        0.011476,
        0.011476,
        0.011428,
        0.011337
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.867277,
        -1.290473,
        -1.481523,
        -1.563415,
        -1.594036,
        -1.618892,
        -1.681112,
        -1.75763,
        -1.835832,
        -1.908908,
        -1.973791,
        -2.029149,
        -2.070708,
        -2.09795,
        -2.115563,
        -2.123577,
        -2.126384,
        -2.112156,
        -2.052797,
        -1.970186
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.823365,
        -2.655326,
        -2.986788,
        -3.072013,
        -3.038624,
        -2.956698,
        -2.867485,
        -2.77701,
        -2.687485,
        -2.599654,
        -2.513907,
        -2.430507,
        -2.348026,
        -2.266061,
        -2.185503,
        -2.105551,
        -2.028756,
        -1.952032,
        -1.866357,
        -1.777865
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.11008,
        0.233204,
        0.329041,
        0.387833,
        0.411407,
        0.405523,
        0.376645,
        0.33122,
        0.275151,
        0.21349,
        0.150347,
        0.088969,
        0.031544,
        -0.020621,
        -0.06684,
        -0.106759,
        -0.140513,
        -0.168402,
        -0.190674,
        -0.207777
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.081217,
        -0.195252,
        -0.316891,
        -0.434567,
        -0.543134,
        -0.641197,
        -0.729003,
        -0.806968,
        -0.875528,
        -0.935127,
        -0.9862,
        -1.029143,
        -1.063982,
        -1.090734,
        -1.10988,
        -1.121853,
        -1.12747,
        -1.12749,
        -1.122732,
        -1.11385
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        19.306091,
        21.380579,
        22.391035,
        22.859855,
        23.040175,
        23.069987,
        23.012687,
        22.882519,
        22.688932,
        22.450317,
        22.166959,
        21.83882,
        21.479088,
        21.099588,
        20.711981,
        20.316767,
        19.923788,
        19.533432,
        19.144629,
        18.759911
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.440321,
        0.932817,
        1.316166,
        1.551334,
        1.64563,
        1.622093,
        1.506579,
        1.32488,
        1.100605,
        0.85396,
        0.601387,
        0.355876,
        0.126176,
        -0.082483,
        -0.267359,
        -0.427037,
        -0.562053,
        -0.673608,
        -0.762698,
        -0.831109
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.186259,
        -0.190154,
        -0.198144,
        -0.209318,
        -0.222443,
        -0.236345,
        -0.250042,
        -0.262768,
        -0.273973,
        -0.283301,
        -0.290567,
        -0.295722,
        -0.298824,
        -0.300007,
        -0.299445,
        -0.297337,
        -0.293895,
        -0.289322,
        -0.283816,
        -0.277563
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.11008,
        -0.233204,
        -0.329041,
        -0.387833,
        -0.411407,
        -0.405523,
        -0.376645,
        -0.33122,
        -0.275151,
        -0.21349,
        -0.150347,
        -0.088969,
        -0.031544,
        0.020621,
        0.06684,
        0.106759,
        0.140513,
        0.168402,
        0.190674,
        0.207777
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.455707,
        -2.612524,
        -2.593796,
        -2.424036,
        -2.140115,
        -1.779245,
        -1.374408,
        -0.953098,
        -0.537017,
        -0.142136,
        0.220661,
        0.544631,
        0.82654,
        1.06583,
        1.263719,
        1.422643,
        1.545929,
        1.637282,
        1.700566,
        1.739779
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.198582,
        -1.901204,
        -1.485288,
        -0.978436,
        -0.416505,
        0.166769,
        0.743255,
        1.290991,
        1.794112,
        2.242286,
        2.629914,
        2.955264,
        3.219673,
        3.426561,
        3.580644,
        3.687329,
        3.752383,
        3.781484,
        3.780058,
        3.753317
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.373497,
        1.586602,
        1.896319,
        2.280421,
        2.708676,
        3.152346,
        3.587412,
        3.995149,
        4.362119,
        4.679715,
        4.943473,
        5.15229,
        5.307726,
        5.413129,
        5.472915,
        5.492059,
        5.475824,
        5.429357,
        5.357559,
        5.26512
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.352657,
        3.422773,
        3.566583,
        3.767723,
        4.003971,
        4.254204,
        4.500754,
        4.72983,
        4.931512,
        5.099421,
        5.230208,
        5.322991,
        5.378836,
        5.400121,
        5.39001,
        5.352075,
        5.290102,
        5.207797,
        5.108682,
        4.996133
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.373389,
        -3.566215,
        -4.093567,
        -4.283839,
        -4.311042,
        -4.26891,
        -4.204983,
        -4.13966,
        -4.080905,
        -4.031285,
        -3.989778,
        -3.9542,
        -3.921848,
        -3.890294,
        -3.855892,
        -3.815389,
        -3.772296,
        -3.728975,
        -3.684146,
        -3.635498
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.185859,
        1.867476,
        2.226285,
        2.374331,
        2.378872,
        2.295536,
        2.160275,
        1.989812,
        1.797527,
        1.595302,
        1.392234,
        1.193116,
        1.006797,
        0.841403,
        0.70222,
        0.585596,
        0.501374,
        0.450671,
        0.42928,
        0.433764
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        138.904311,
        164.673301,
        174.381043,
        176.359824,
        174.678983,
        171.263532,
        167.047255,
        162.530437,
        157.981488,
        153.541644,
        149.29375,
        145.308718,
        141.608723,
        138.183278,
        135.017816,
        132.110585,
        129.414886,
        126.905054,
        124.566547,
        122.381948
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.196756,
        96.407677,
        95.115814,
        94.301567,
        93.833485,
        93.506699,
        93.183261,
        92.840741,
        92.49378,
        92.163106,
        91.874979,
        91.67063,
        91.562537,
        91.543427,
        91.624041,
        91.845641,
        92.142884,
        92.481889,
        92.846625,
        93.223213
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        101.829841,
        104.245742,
        106.699581,
        108.878773,
        110.635116,
        111.83446,
        112.438746,
        112.536926,
        112.252464,
        111.702665,
        110.994874,
        110.267456,
        109.59797,
        109.001414,
        108.491197,
        108.094126,
        107.771509,
        107.505378,
        107.292796,
        107.121857
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        5.914408,
        6.721796,
        7.003875,
        7.041798,
        6.96838,
        6.841373,
        6.687699,
        6.523753,
        6.359414,
        6.200311,
        6.05035,
        5.913284,
        5.790337,
        5.68095,
        5.583715,
        5.497955,
        5.419787,
        5.348419,
        5.283387,
        5.223932
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        98.421504,
        96.899781,
        95.814165,
        95.139646,
        94.763368,
        94.513186,
        94.274195,
        94.025359,
        93.775604,
        93.539217,
        93.336028,
        93.195691,
        93.126802,
        93.123313,
        93.194323,
        93.38175,
        93.629634,
        93.908377,
        94.201994,
        94.499915
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.210928,
        98.312249,
        97.630161,
        97.1755,
        96.883141,
        96.639301,
        96.372011,
        96.076713,
        95.770209,
        95.472189,
        95.200394,
        95.005307,
        94.914053,
        94.909816,
        94.980826,
        95.130321,
        95.322005,
        95.543794,
        95.788701,
        96.048086
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2250.80117,
        2361.340944,
        2409.502799,
        2429.803182,
        2438.00016,
        2441.708602,
        2443.80945,
        2444.294052,
        2442.808668,
        2439.545471,
        2433.831651,
        2425.117034,
        2413.692142,
        2399.952616,
        2384.42295,
        2367.143603,
        2348.663351,
        2329.110291,
        2308.55527,
        2287.250907
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -2.974,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 17,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 2.3148,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -8.1937,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 13
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}