{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_50_au",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $50/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_50",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 50.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "AU",
    "name": "Australia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.129805,
        0.1877,
        0.212749,
        0.223231,
        0.228252,
        0.231785,
        0.235215,
        0.238638,
        0.241481,
        0.242989,
        0.242479,
        0.239557,
        0.233989,
        0.225642,
        0.214699,
        0.201488,
        0.186424,
        0.169995,
        0.15267,
        0.134896
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.08324,
        0.135408,
        0.159835,
        0.167383,
        0.167001,
        0.164056,
        0.161167,
        0.159234,
        0.158181,
        0.157505,
        0.156598,
        0.154959,
        0.152203,
        0.148055,
        0.142445,
        0.135432,
        0.127172,
        0.117892,
        0.107842,
        0.097282
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.095496,
        -0.128511,
        -0.127215,
        -0.110168,
        -0.087652,
        -0.064867,
        -0.044168,
        -0.026376,
        -0.011604,
        0.000334,
        0.009735,
        0.016971,
        0.022391,
        0.026245,
        0.028783,
        0.030243,
        0.030831,
        0.03076,
        0.03019,
        0.029259
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.081011,
        -0.176744,
        -0.254974,
        -0.304577,
        -0.325147,
        -0.320926,
        -0.297607,
        -0.260772,
        -0.215302,
        -0.165225,
        -0.113738,
        -0.063248,
        -0.015499,
        0.028246,
        0.067155,
        0.100764,
        0.128902,
        0.151656,
        0.169284,
        0.182169
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.549925,
        -0.882987,
        -1.063397,
        -1.147722,
        -1.176554,
        -1.174742,
        -1.156418,
        -1.129856,
        -1.099056,
        -1.0654,
        -1.028931,
        -0.989836,
        -0.948069,
        -0.9027,
        -0.853507,
        -0.800754,
        -0.744889,
        -0.686975,
        -0.627814,
        -0.568196
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.016443,
        0.040343,
        0.067201,
        0.0947,
        0.121697,
        0.147638,
        0.172252,
        0.195388,
        0.216919,
        0.236704,
        0.254585,
        0.270408,
        0.284026,
        0.295307,
        0.304157,
        0.310533,
        0.314441,
        0.315939,
        0.315132,
        0.31216
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.506317,
        1.104653,
        1.59359,
        1.903607,
        2.032169,
        2.005785,
        1.860043,
        1.629826,
        1.345639,
        1.032654,
        0.710861,
        0.395303,
        0.09687,
        -0.176535,
        -0.419716,
        -0.629774,
        -0.805637,
        -0.947848,
        -1.058025,
        -1.138554
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.407627,
        0.637251,
        0.764743,
        0.829804,
        0.85677,
        0.860122,
        0.848537,
        0.826964,
        0.797892,
        0.76255,
        0.721649,
        0.67596,
        0.626138,
        0.572729,
        0.516746,
        0.459269,
        0.401397,
        0.344186,
        0.288544,
        0.235255
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.25272,
        -0.269506,
        -0.268066,
        -0.250412,
        -0.220246,
        -0.18154,
        -0.137893,
        -0.092298,
        -0.047106,
        -0.004081,
        0.03553,
        0.070907,
        0.101584,
        0.127369,
        0.14829,
        0.164549,
        0.176469,
        0.184459,
        0.188976,
        0.190498
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.08833,
        -0.074741,
        -0.056123,
        -0.033513,
        -0.008477,
        0.017421,
        0.042857,
        0.06681,
        0.088558,
        0.107638,
        0.1238,
        0.136966,
        0.147187,
        0.154605,
        0.159434,
        0.16193,
        0.162377,
        0.161067,
        0.158289,
        0.154319
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.030542,
        0.034534,
        0.040792,
        0.048887,
        0.058113,
        0.067751,
        0.077188,
        0.085954,
        0.093715,
        0.100263,
        0.105488,
        0.109358,
        0.111903,
        0.113196,
        0.11334,
        0.112461,
        0.110693,
        0.108177,
        0.10505,
        0.101443
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.037945,
        0.084113,
        0.126534,
        0.161633,
        0.189472,
        0.211342,
        0.228683,
        0.242648,
        0.253963,
        0.262966,
        0.269711,
        0.274114,
        0.276032,
        0.275303,
        0.271844,
        0.265671,
        0.256907,
        0.245772,
        0.232561,
        0.217623
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001304,
        -0.005772,
        -0.022793,
        -0.047463,
        -0.076202,
        -0.10545,
        -0.132228,
        -0.154303,
        -0.170171,
        -0.178968,
        -0.180356,
        -0.174416,
        -0.161544,
        -0.142367,
        -0.117673,
        -0.088353,
        -0.05535,
        -0.019616,
        0.017924,
        0.056401
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.504375,
        0.880172,
        1.036733,
        1.126161,
        1.16498,
        1.165987,
        1.13924,
        1.092204,
        1.029998,
        0.956398,
        0.874395,
        0.786789,
        0.695708,
        0.602788,
        0.510118,
        0.419448,
        0.332286,
        0.249934,
        0.17329,
        0.103012
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.002522,
        0.006923,
        0.012106,
        0.017737,
        0.023562,
        0.029392,
        0.035088,
        0.040549,
        0.045699,
        0.050481,
        0.054853,
        0.058787,
        0.062266,
        0.06528,
        0.06783,
        0.069927,
        0.071589,
        0.072839,
        0.073705,
        0.07422
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.353063,
        0.61612,
        0.725713,
        0.788312,
        0.815486,
        0.816191,
        0.797468,
        0.764543,
        0.720999,
        0.669479,
        0.612077,
        0.550752,
        0.486996,
        0.421951,
        0.357083,
        0.293613,
        0.2326,
        0.174954,
        0.121303,
        0.072108
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.024426,
        -0.034885,
        -0.039619,
        -0.041986,
        -0.043429,
        -0.044518,
        -0.045439,
        -0.04618,
        -0.046655,
        -0.046772,
        -0.046467,
        -0.045705,
        -0.044476,
        -0.042808,
        -0.040765,
        -0.038419,
        -0.035847,
        -0.033122,
        -0.030314,
        -0.027491
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.007763,
        0.018623,
        0.030356,
        0.041997,
        0.053209,
        0.063931,
        0.074196,
        0.084051,
        0.093506,
        0.102528,
        0.111041,
        0.118948,
        0.126141,
        0.132505,
        0.13794,
        0.142366,
        0.145729,
        0.148006,
        0.149199,
        0.149335
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.186627,
        0.271772,
        0.30358,
        0.30864,
        0.301262,
        0.288815,
        0.274901,
        0.261214,
        0.248409,
        0.2366,
        0.225656,
        0.215417,
        0.205713,
        0.196316,
        0.187072,
        0.177893,
        0.168728,
        0.159608,
        0.150553,
        0.141598
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.066847,
        -0.089958,
        -0.089051,
        -0.077118,
        -0.061357,
        -0.045407,
        -0.030917,
        -0.018463,
        -0.008123,
        0.000234,
        0.006815,
        0.01188,
        0.015674,
        0.018372,
        0.020148,
        0.02117,
        0.021582,
        0.021532,
        0.021133,
        0.020481
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.082041,
        0.118704,
        0.134544,
        0.141084,
        0.144063,
        0.146006,
        0.147817,
        0.149591,
        0.151005,
        0.151616,
        0.151023,
        0.148993,
        0.145386,
        0.140126,
        0.133325,
        0.125179,
        0.115938,
        0.105892,
        0.095321,
        0.084495
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.02012,
        -0.044183,
        -0.066114,
        -0.084186,
        -0.098519,
        -0.109816,
        -0.11882,
        -0.126104,
        -0.132008,
        -0.136669,
        -0.140086,
        -0.142196,
        -0.142915,
        -0.142161,
        -0.139899,
        -0.136155,
        -0.131012,
        -0.124608,
        -0.11712,
        -0.108749
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000969,
        0.002297,
        0.00369,
        0.005015,
        0.006218,
        0.007281,
        0.008206,
        0.009001,
        0.009676,
        0.010242,
        0.010707,
        0.01108,
        0.011368,
        0.011578,
        0.011714,
        0.011783,
        0.011788,
        0.011737,
        0.011634,
        0.011484
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.092811,
        0.134206,
        0.152115,
        0.15961,
        0.1632,
        0.165727,
        0.168179,
        0.170626,
        0.172659,
        0.173737,
        0.173373,
        0.171283,
        0.167302,
        0.161334,
        0.15351,
        0.144064,
        0.133293,
        0.121547,
        0.109159,
        0.096451
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.408385,
        0.617224,
        0.714288,
        0.750383,
        0.754473,
        0.74235,
        0.72235,
        0.698862,
        0.67394,
        0.64836,
        0.622278,
        0.595759,
        0.568767,
        0.541068,
        0.512632,
        0.483565,
        0.454032,
        0.424359,
        0.394808,
        0.365633
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.020253,
        -0.044186,
        -0.063744,
        -0.076144,
        -0.081287,
        -0.080231,
        -0.074402,
        -0.065193,
        -0.053826,
        -0.041306,
        -0.028434,
        -0.015812,
        -0.003875,
        0.007061,
        0.016789,
        0.025191,
        0.032225,
        0.037914,
        0.042321,
        0.045542
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.002485,
        0.00589,
        0.009462,
        0.01286,
        0.015943,
        0.01867,
        0.021041,
        0.02308,
        0.024811,
        0.026262,
        0.027454,
        0.02841,
        0.02915,
        0.029687,
        0.030036,
        0.030212,
        0.030227,
        0.030095,
        0.02983,
        0.029447
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.746454,
        16.080576,
        16.211189,
        16.241938,
        16.224229,
        16.183866,
        16.133806,
        16.080364,
        16.026669,
        15.974307,
        15.92409,
        15.876247,
        15.830825,
        15.788039,
        15.747918,
        15.710386,
        15.67534,
        15.642559,
        15.611879,
        15.583134
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.081011,
        -0.176744,
        -0.254974,
        -0.304577,
        -0.325147,
        -0.320926,
        -0.297607,
        -0.260772,
        -0.215302,
        -0.165225,
        -0.113738,
        -0.063248,
        -0.015499,
        0.028246,
        0.067155,
        0.100764,
        0.128902,
        0.151656,
        0.169284,
        0.182169
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.021241,
        0.021926,
        0.023408,
        0.025542,
        0.028089,
        0.030806,
        0.033489,
        0.035976,
        0.038156,
        0.039957,
        0.041341,
        0.042294,
        0.042827,
        0.042962,
        0.042732,
        0.042177,
        0.041342,
        0.040273,
        0.039013,
        0.037607
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.020253,
        0.044186,
        0.063744,
        0.076144,
        0.081287,
        0.080231,
        0.074402,
        0.065193,
        0.053826,
        0.041306,
        0.028434,
        0.015812,
        0.003875,
        -0.007061,
        -0.016789,
        -0.025191,
        -0.032225,
        -0.037914,
        -0.042321,
        -0.045542
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.480168,
        0.512062,
        0.509326,
        0.475782,
        0.418467,
        0.344925,
        0.261997,
        0.175366,
        0.089501,
        0.007753,
        -0.067506,
        -0.134724,
        -0.19301,
        -0.242,
        -0.281751,
        -0.312642,
        -0.335291,
        -0.350472,
        -0.359054,
        -0.361946
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.397484,
        0.336332,
        0.252551,
        0.150807,
        0.038148,
        -0.078394,
        -0.192856,
        -0.300646,
        -0.398513,
        -0.484371,
        -0.557101,
        -0.616348,
        -0.662339,
        -0.695723,
        -0.717453,
        -0.728687,
        -0.730697,
        -0.724801,
        -0.712299,
        -0.694435
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.250446,
        -0.283175,
        -0.334491,
        -0.400877,
        -0.476529,
        -0.55556,
        -0.632943,
        -0.704819,
        -0.768466,
        -0.82216,
        -0.864999,
        -0.896733,
        -0.917604,
        -0.928205,
        -0.92939,
        -0.922179,
        -0.907684,
        -0.887052,
        -0.861411,
        -0.831832
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.382333,
        -0.394664,
        -0.421347,
        -0.459755,
        -0.505597,
        -0.554516,
        -0.602795,
        -0.64757,
        -0.686813,
        -0.71923,
        -0.744129,
        -0.7613,
        -0.770892,
        -0.773317,
        -0.769176,
        -0.759193,
        -0.744165,
        -0.724912,
        -0.702241,
        -0.676923
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.315668,
        0.564485,
        0.702634,
        0.769284,
        0.795126,
        0.79915,
        0.791854,
        0.779475,
        0.764765,
        0.748312,
        0.729604,
        0.708483,
        0.684624,
        0.656837,
        0.624707,
        0.58836,
        0.548118,
        0.505002,
        0.45977,
        0.413186
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.597623,
        -0.981197,
        -1.204209,
        -1.31629,
        -1.354753,
        -1.344089,
        -1.299766,
        -1.233812,
        -1.154172,
        -1.066136,
        -0.973373,
        -0.879185,
        -0.786052,
        -0.694978,
        -0.607054,
        -0.523296,
        -0.444437,
        -0.371424,
        -0.304665,
        -0.244332
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        65.070923,
        58.388478,
        55.776221,
        55.161241,
        55.515426,
        56.322677,
        57.323873,
        58.392724,
        59.466623,
        60.513867,
        61.518205,
        62.475064,
        63.383491,
        64.239214,
        65.041638,
        65.792276,
        66.4932,
        67.148824,
        67.76242,
        68.337329
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.264189,
        100.515787,
        100.692161,
        100.800801,
        100.864559,
        100.901414,
        100.922487,
        100.934861,
        100.941565,
        100.942922,
        100.937934,
        100.926402,
        100.908038,
        100.881175,
        100.845394,
        100.801127,
        100.749139,
        100.691241,
        100.628833,
        100.563317
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.320032,
        98.427364,
        97.557257,
        96.817102,
        96.244672,
        95.83727,
        95.574328,
        95.43203,
        95.385529,
        95.411071,
        95.487456,
        95.599011,
        95.733156,
        95.877019,
        96.021775,
        96.16169,
        96.292894,
        96.414648,
        96.526356,
        96.6282
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        3.507868,
        3.284951,
        3.196351,
        3.174476,
        3.185585,
        3.212292,
        3.245538,
        3.281065,
        3.316795,
        3.35166,
        3.385078,
        3.417017,
        3.447529,
        3.476267,
        3.503108,
        3.528058,
        3.551091,
        3.572454,
        3.59222,
        3.610513
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.257463,
        100.502625,
        100.673504,
        100.77609,
        100.831639,
        100.858732,
        100.86983,
        100.872257,
        100.869401,
        100.862208,
        100.850415,
        100.83367,
        100.811576,
        100.783532,
        100.749526,
        100.709986,
        100.66561,
        100.617417,
        100.566425,
        100.513697
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.079999,
        100.156705,
        100.213424,
        100.255523,
        100.292429,
        100.329455,
        100.366099,
        100.402914,
        100.439123,
        100.472727,
        100.501225,
        100.52255,
        100.535141,
        100.537791,
        100.530232,
        100.512911,
        100.485853,
        100.451439,
        100.410545,
        100.36459
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2034.497144,
        2052.792163,
        2061.841039,
        2065.268558,
        2065.171206,
        2062.852705,
        2059.16531,
        2054.684284,
        2049.807973,
        2044.820443,
        2039.9262,
        2035.261336,
        2030.91703,
        2026.962639,
        2023.435118,
        2020.346273,
        2017.690582,
        2015.444138,
        2013.576612,
        2012.051783
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 0.243,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.669,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 0.8601,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 6
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}