{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_50_br",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $50/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_50",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 50.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "BR",
    "name": "Brazil"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.074522,
        -0.111272,
        -0.114707,
        -0.089626,
        -0.0396,
        0.029716,
        0.110981,
        0.196542,
        0.279022,
        0.352258,
        0.411793,
        0.455197,
        0.481569,
        0.491056,
        0.485054,
        0.465635,
        0.435171,
        0.396327,
        0.351511,
        0.302997
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000877,
        -0.006735,
        -0.015819,
        -0.019784,
        -0.012253,
        0.00855,
        0.040735,
        0.080464,
        0.123175,
        0.164579,
        0.201219,
        0.230753,
        0.251842,
        0.263944,
        0.267314,
        0.262719,
        0.251232,
        0.23416,
        0.212801,
        0.18843
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.086868,
        -0.121711,
        -0.126174,
        -0.115971,
        -0.099805,
        -0.081957,
        -0.064343,
        -0.047682,
        -0.032278,
        -0.018308,
        -0.005911,
        0.004882,
        0.014068,
        0.021589,
        0.027488,
        0.031877,
        0.034892,
        0.036739,
        0.037589,
        0.037606
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.231101,
        -0.485631,
        -0.675666,
        -0.780079,
        -0.80707,
        -0.774418,
        -0.700527,
        -0.600922,
        -0.487713,
        -0.370016,
        -0.254544,
        -0.145937,
        -0.047243,
        0.039495,
        0.113176,
        0.173516,
        0.220842,
        0.256046,
        0.280307,
        0.294964
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.84581,
        1.388746,
        1.748976,
        1.977068,
        2.098699,
        2.132782,
        2.096437,
        2.005546,
        1.875032,
        1.718468,
        1.547683,
        1.372143,
        1.199344,
        1.035522,
        0.88503,
        0.75063,
        0.633818,
        0.534802,
        0.453113,
        0.387648
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00405,
        -0.006331,
        -0.003949,
        0.004717,
        0.02093,
        0.045513,
        0.078611,
        0.119618,
        0.167175,
        0.219324,
        0.273752,
        0.328057,
        0.379951,
        0.427376,
        0.46866,
        0.502562,
        0.528277,
        0.545431,
        0.554008,
        0.554299
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.962921,
        2.023464,
        2.815275,
        3.250328,
        3.36279,
        3.226741,
        2.918861,
        2.503843,
        2.032138,
        1.541734,
        1.060599,
        0.60807,
        0.196845,
        -0.164561,
        -0.471565,
        -0.722982,
        -0.920173,
        -1.066857,
        -1.167944,
        -1.229016
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.032873,
        0.016913,
        0.105566,
        0.213388,
        0.335047,
        0.465762,
        0.598515,
        0.724989,
        0.836261,
        0.924661,
        0.984879,
        1.014686,
        1.014133,
        0.984827,
        0.930384,
        0.855342,
        0.764532,
        0.663044,
        0.555297,
        0.445341
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.631927,
        -0.664003,
        -0.649551,
        -0.596911,
        -0.517643,
        -0.422665,
        -0.320926,
        -0.219213,
        -0.122408,
        -0.033839,
        0.044419,
        0.111275,
        0.166388,
        0.209973,
        0.242679,
        0.265465,
        0.27948,
        0.285974,
        0.286213,
        0.28142
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.249126,
        -0.222499,
        -0.18316,
        -0.134604,
        -0.081318,
        -0.027325,
        0.024294,
        0.071418,
        0.112738,
        0.14757,
        0.175707,
        0.197288,
        0.212692,
        0.22246,
        0.227235,
        0.227715,
        0.224615,
        0.218628,
        0.210402,
        0.200524
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.029808,
        -0.02235,
        -0.008698,
        0.009547,
        0.030258,
        0.05151,
        0.071824,
        0.090178,
        0.105937,
        0.118771,
        0.128574,
        0.135409,
        0.139456,
        0.140968,
        0.140249,
        0.137633,
        0.133457,
        0.128052,
        0.121726,
        0.114756
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012729,
        -0.029555,
        -0.044888,
        -0.054389,
        -0.054712,
        -0.043799,
        -0.021042,
        0.012823,
        0.055924,
        0.105594,
        0.158757,
        0.212322,
        0.263444,
        0.30966,
        0.349056,
        0.380307,
        0.40265,
        0.415859,
        0.420135,
        0.416026
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.001148,
        -0.014362,
        -0.041935,
        -0.081548,
        -0.128935,
        -0.179333,
        -0.228205,
        -0.271579,
        -0.306204,
        -0.329617,
        -0.340164,
        -0.33698,
        -0.319928,
        -0.289515,
        -0.246807,
        -0.193311,
        -0.130855,
        -0.061474,
        0.012706,
        0.089563
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.162473,
        0.4198,
        0.7308,
        0.986317,
        1.19092,
        1.353902,
        1.480904,
        1.57362,
        1.62991,
        1.647451,
        1.625573,
        1.566462,
        1.473712,
        1.351856,
        1.207718,
        1.048189,
        0.879721,
        0.708725,
        0.539903,
        0.377481
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000812,
        0.002911,
        0.006565,
        0.011497,
        0.017452,
        0.024221,
        0.031626,
        0.039494,
        0.047643,
        0.05588,
        0.064008,
        0.071841,
        0.079209,
        0.085969,
        0.092007,
        0.097248,
        0.101647,
        0.10519,
        0.10789,
        0.109777
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.113731,
        0.29386,
        0.51156,
        0.690422,
        0.833644,
        0.947731,
        1.036633,
        1.101534,
        1.140937,
        1.153216,
        1.137901,
        1.096523,
        1.031599,
        0.946299,
        0.845402,
        0.733732,
        0.615805,
        0.496107,
        0.377932,
        0.264237
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.058372,
        -0.08861,
        -0.107181,
        -0.121649,
        -0.135584,
        -0.15013,
        -0.165069,
        -0.179549,
        -0.192506,
        -0.20299,
        -0.210324,
        -0.214156,
        -0.214414,
        -0.21127,
        -0.205107,
        -0.196406,
        -0.185696,
        -0.173522,
        -0.160381,
        -0.146734
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.001886,
        -0.004579,
        -0.007307,
        -0.009394,
        -0.010248,
        -0.009417,
        -0.006636,
        -0.001834,
        0.004877,
        0.013235,
        0.022873,
        0.033371,
        0.044297,
        0.055228,
        0.065784,
        0.075646,
        0.084555,
        0.092325,
        0.098833,
        0.104012
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.382044,
        -0.570985,
        -0.662091,
        -0.702786,
        -0.716913,
        -0.716906,
        -0.709307,
        -0.697332,
        -0.682667,
        -0.666295,
        -0.64885,
        -0.630572,
        -0.61163,
        -0.592467,
        -0.573355,
        -0.554453,
        -0.535896,
        -0.517659,
        -0.499785,
        -0.482312
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.060808,
        -0.085198,
        -0.088322,
        -0.081179,
        -0.069864,
        -0.05737,
        -0.04504,
        -0.033378,
        -0.022594,
        -0.012816,
        -0.004138,
        0.003417,
        0.009848,
        0.015113,
        0.019242,
        0.022314,
        0.024424,
        0.025717,
        0.026312,
        0.026324
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.039467,
        -0.05912,
        -0.060195,
        -0.044862,
        -0.014914,
        0.026435,
        0.074869,
        0.125845,
        0.17496,
        0.218531,
        0.253891,
        0.279585,
        0.295077,
        0.300457,
        0.296565,
        0.284643,
        0.266114,
        0.242576,
        0.215472,
        0.186165
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.004918,
        0.010807,
        0.015178,
        0.016601,
        0.014301,
        0.008106,
        -0.001838,
        -0.016119,
        -0.033016,
        -0.051182,
        -0.069271,
        -0.086093,
        -0.100687,
        -0.112345,
        -0.120638,
        -0.125401,
        -0.126688,
        -0.124741,
        -0.119919,
        -0.112664
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002856,
        -0.006912,
        -0.011332,
        -0.015678,
        -0.019717,
        -0.02334,
        -0.026507,
        -0.029211,
        -0.031464,
        -0.033297,
        -0.034749,
        -0.035859,
        -0.036665,
        -0.037218,
        -0.037564,
        -0.037743,
        -0.037796,
        -0.037751,
        -0.037633,
        -0.037463
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000117,
        0.000284,
        0.000466,
        0.000644,
        0.00081,
        0.000959,
        0.001089,
        0.0012,
        0.001293,
        0.001368,
        0.001428,
        0.001474,
        0.001507,
        0.00153,
        0.001544,
        0.001551,
        0.001553,
        0.001551,
        0.001547,
        0.00154
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.049185,
        -0.073439,
        -0.075706,
        -0.059153,
        -0.026136,
        0.019613,
        0.073247,
        0.129717,
        0.184155,
        0.23249,
        0.271784,
        0.30043,
        0.317836,
        0.324097,
        0.320136,
        0.307319,
        0.287213,
        0.261576,
        0.231997,
        0.199978
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.029934,
        -0.006648,
        -0.063159,
        -0.11427,
        -0.147838,
        -0.160345,
        -0.153213,
        -0.13021,
        -0.096038,
        -0.055366,
        -0.01231,
        0.029895,
        0.068841,
        0.10277,
        0.130669,
        0.152093,
        0.167025,
        0.175848,
        0.17912,
        0.177558
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.057775,
        -0.121408,
        -0.168917,
        -0.19502,
        -0.201767,
        -0.193604,
        -0.175132,
        -0.150231,
        -0.121928,
        -0.092504,
        -0.063636,
        -0.036484,
        -0.011811,
        0.009874,
        0.028294,
        0.043379,
        0.05521,
        0.064011,
        0.070077,
        0.073741
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003423,
        -0.008285,
        -0.013583,
        -0.018792,
        -0.023634,
        -0.027976,
        -0.031772,
        -0.035013,
        -0.037714,
        -0.039911,
        -0.041651,
        -0.042981,
        -0.043948,
        -0.044611,
        -0.045025,
        -0.04524,
        -0.045304,
        -0.045249,
        -0.045108,
        -0.044904
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.746454,
        16.080576,
        16.211189,
        16.241938,
        16.224229,
        16.183866,
        16.133806,
        16.080364,
        16.026669,
        15.974307,
        15.92409,
        15.876247,
        15.830825,
        15.788039,
        15.747918,
        15.710386,
        15.67534,
        15.642559,
        15.611879,
        15.583134
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.231101,
        -0.485631,
        -0.675666,
        -0.780079,
        -0.80707,
        -0.774418,
        -0.700527,
        -0.600922,
        -0.487713,
        -0.370016,
        -0.254544,
        -0.145937,
        -0.047243,
        0.039495,
        0.113176,
        0.173516,
        0.220842,
        0.256046,
        0.280307,
        0.294964
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.007627,
        -0.005709,
        -0.00167,
        0.003954,
        0.010448,
        0.017167,
        0.023614,
        0.029446,
        0.034448,
        0.038507,
        0.041586,
        0.043702,
        0.044914,
        0.045303,
        0.04497,
        0.044023,
        0.042574,
        0.04073,
        0.038593,
        0.036254
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.057775,
        0.121408,
        0.168917,
        0.19502,
        0.201767,
        0.193604,
        0.175132,
        0.150231,
        0.121928,
        0.092504,
        0.063636,
        0.036484,
        0.011811,
        -0.009874,
        -0.028294,
        -0.043379,
        -0.05521,
        -0.064011,
        -0.070077,
        -0.073741
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.200661,
        1.261606,
        1.234147,
        1.134131,
        0.983522,
        0.803063,
        0.609759,
        0.416505,
        0.232576,
        0.064294,
        -0.084396,
        -0.211423,
        -0.316136,
        -0.398948,
        -0.461091,
        -0.504384,
        -0.531013,
        -0.54335,
        -0.543805,
        -0.534699
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.121068,
        1.001246,
        0.824221,
        0.605717,
        0.365931,
        0.122963,
        -0.109323,
        -0.321383,
        -0.507321,
        -0.664067,
        -0.790682,
        -0.887794,
        -0.957116,
        -1.001071,
        -1.022556,
        -1.024718,
        -1.010766,
        -0.983825,
        -0.946811,
        -0.90236
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.244428,
        0.183268,
        0.071328,
        -0.078282,
        -0.248112,
        -0.422384,
        -0.588957,
        -0.739456,
        -0.868684,
        -0.973919,
        -1.054305,
        -1.110358,
        -1.143539,
        -1.155934,
        -1.150043,
        -1.128587,
        -1.094346,
        -1.050027,
        -0.998153,
        -0.941003
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.137285,
        0.102764,
        0.030055,
        -0.071166,
        -0.188055,
        -0.309,
        -0.425053,
        -0.530028,
        -0.620068,
        -0.693131,
        -0.748545,
        -0.786642,
        -0.808452,
        -0.815462,
        -0.809465,
        -0.79242,
        -0.766326,
        -0.733136,
        -0.694668,
        -0.652564
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.724486,
        -1.196889,
        -1.527465,
        -1.746728,
        -1.870831,
        -1.913856,
        -1.890218,
        -1.814012,
        -1.698892,
        -1.557442,
        -1.400678,
        -1.237557,
        -1.075222,
        -0.919633,
        -0.775074,
        -0.644393,
        -0.529245,
        -0.430148,
        -0.346925,
        -0.27878
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.798113,
        1.290535,
        1.608164,
        1.808499,
        1.920499,
        1.963435,
        1.953089,
        1.90159,
        1.819916,
        1.717731,
        1.603241,
        1.482795,
        1.361362,
        1.243244,
        1.131484,
        1.028088,
        0.93427,
        0.850353,
        0.776262,
        0.711512
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        65.070923,
        58.388478,
        55.776221,
        55.161241,
        55.515426,
        56.322677,
        57.323873,
        58.392724,
        59.466623,
        60.513867,
        61.518205,
        62.475064,
        63.383491,
        64.239214,
        65.041638,
        65.792276,
        66.4932,
        67.148824,
        67.76242,
        68.337329
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.264189,
        100.515787,
        100.692161,
        100.800801,
        100.864559,
        100.901414,
        100.922487,
        100.934861,
        100.941565,
        100.942922,
        100.937934,
        100.926402,
        100.908038,
        100.881175,
        100.845394,
        100.801127,
        100.749139,
        100.691241,
        100.628833,
        100.563317
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.320032,
        98.427364,
        97.557257,
        96.817102,
        96.244672,
        95.83727,
        95.574328,
        95.43203,
        95.385529,
        95.411071,
        95.487456,
        95.599011,
        95.733156,
        95.877019,
        96.021775,
        96.16169,
        96.292894,
        96.414648,
        96.526356,
        96.6282
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        3.507868,
        3.284951,
        3.196351,
        3.174476,
        3.185585,
        3.212292,
        3.245538,
        3.281065,
        3.316795,
        3.35166,
        3.385078,
        3.417017,
        3.447529,
        3.476267,
        3.503108,
        3.528058,
        3.551091,
        3.572454,
        3.59222,
        3.610513
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.257463,
        100.502625,
        100.673504,
        100.77609,
        100.831639,
        100.858732,
        100.86983,
        100.872257,
        100.869401,
        100.862208,
        100.850415,
        100.83367,
        100.811576,
        100.783532,
        100.749526,
        100.709986,
        100.66561,
        100.617417,
        100.566425,
        100.513697
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.079999,
        100.156705,
        100.213424,
        100.255523,
        100.292429,
        100.329455,
        100.366099,
        100.402914,
        100.439123,
        100.472727,
        100.501225,
        100.52255,
        100.535141,
        100.537791,
        100.530232,
        100.512911,
        100.485853,
        100.451439,
        100.410545,
        100.36459
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2034.497144,
        2052.792163,
        2061.841039,
        2065.268558,
        2065.171206,
        2062.852705,
        2059.16531,
        2054.684284,
        2049.807973,
        2044.820443,
        2039.9262,
        2035.261336,
        2030.91703,
        2026.962639,
        2023.435118,
        2020.346273,
        2017.690582,
        2015.444138,
        2013.576612,
        2012.051783
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 0.4911,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 14,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.7961,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 1.0147,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 12
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}