{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_50_ng",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $50/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_50",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 50.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "NG",
    "name": "Nigeria"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.513614,
        -0.743523,
        -0.823421,
        -0.819483,
        -0.763656,
        -0.673863,
        -0.562182,
        -0.438032,
        -0.309867,
        -0.185141,
        -0.070005,
        0.031266,
        0.115829,
        0.181848,
        0.229162,
        0.258705,
        0.272148,
        0.271873,
        0.260315,
        0.240003
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.221975,
        -0.359239,
        -0.431803,
        -0.458643,
        -0.452113,
        -0.42066,
        -0.370845,
        -0.308349,
        -0.238547,
        -0.166415,
        -0.096305,
        -0.03161,
        0.02516,
        0.072233,
        0.108811,
        0.134859,
        0.150911,
        0.158009,
        0.1574,
        0.150479
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.052956,
        -0.145591,
        -0.185493,
        -0.196403,
        -0.190906,
        -0.175854,
        -0.15531,
        -0.131752,
        -0.106954,
        -0.082297,
        -0.05886,
        -0.037337,
        -0.018202,
        -0.001871,
        0.011509,
        0.021981,
        0.029696,
        0.034988,
        0.038163,
        0.039549
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.120114,
        -0.315124,
        -0.503009,
        -0.646727,
        -0.735678,
        -0.772275,
        -0.76448,
        -0.721789,
        -0.653601,
        -0.568545,
        -0.474186,
        -0.37673,
        -0.281078,
        -0.19114,
        -0.109746,
        -0.038698,
        0.021066,
        0.069449,
        0.106892,
        0.134224
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.558173,
        2.145526,
        2.434034,
        2.555352,
        2.576532,
        2.534407,
        2.450907,
        2.340289,
        2.212915,
        2.076859,
        1.938564,
        1.80275,
        1.67289,
        1.55189,
        1.441517,
        1.34257,
        1.255114,
        1.178519,
        1.111833,
        1.053811
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.075507,
        -0.176545,
        -0.278661,
        -0.36994,
        -0.444372,
        -0.499044,
        -0.532916,
        -0.546267,
        -0.540452,
        -0.517698,
        -0.480861,
        -0.433125,
        -0.377784,
        -0.318104,
        -0.257085,
        -0.197335,
        -0.141005,
        -0.089725,
        -0.044646,
        -0.006466
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.300286,
        0.78781,
        1.257523,
        1.616818,
        1.839196,
        1.930688,
        1.911199,
        1.804473,
        1.634003,
        1.421363,
        1.185465,
        0.941825,
        0.702695,
        0.47785,
        0.274366,
        0.096746,
        -0.052665,
        -0.173622,
        -0.26723,
        -0.335559
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.712011,
        -0.959436,
        -0.992874,
        -0.92919,
        -0.818125,
        -0.682041,
        -0.532707,
        -0.378259,
        -0.226418,
        -0.084473,
        0.041332,
        0.146783,
        0.229181,
        0.286904,
        0.320509,
        0.331892,
        0.32381,
        0.299839,
        0.26348,
        0.218282
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.5724,
        -0.639085,
        -0.670763,
        -0.66716,
        -0.633411,
        -0.576586,
        -0.503944,
        -0.422102,
        -0.336716,
        -0.252382,
        -0.172633,
        -0.099998,
        -0.036129,
        0.018075,
        0.062362,
        0.097001,
        0.122653,
        0.140248,
        0.150875,
        0.155688
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.347065,
        -0.333431,
        -0.309517,
        -0.275998,
        -0.235336,
        -0.190461,
        -0.144124,
        -0.09863,
        -0.05577,
        -0.016834,
        0.01734,
        0.046312,
        0.069961,
        0.088419,
        0.102014,
        0.111217,
        0.116588,
        0.118727,
        0.118236,
        0.115692
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.117721,
        -0.113467,
        -0.1044,
        -0.090692,
        -0.073443,
        -0.05402,
        -0.033729,
        -0.013678,
        0.00526,
        0.02245,
        0.037469,
        0.050087,
        0.060225,
        0.067929,
        0.073344,
        0.076683,
        0.078207,
        0.078198,
        0.076943,
        0.074716
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.066487,
        -0.156115,
        -0.247555,
        -0.329929,
        -0.397434,
        -0.447083,
        -0.477704,
        -0.489443,
        -0.483522,
        -0.462011,
        -0.42759,
        -0.383241,
        -0.332043,
        -0.277024,
        -0.220956,
        -0.16623,
        -0.114802,
        -0.068139,
        -0.027254,
        0.007257
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012356,
        -0.049065,
        -0.122089,
        -0.229833,
        -0.364487,
        -0.515848,
        -0.673339,
        -0.827129,
        -0.968731,
        -1.091335,
        -1.189957,
        -1.261443,
        -1.304348,
        -1.318756,
        -1.306058,
        -1.268693,
        -1.209861,
        -1.133255,
        -1.042799,
        -0.942437
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.238543,
        -1.807489,
        -1.597438,
        -1.28676,
        -0.945761,
        -0.606543,
        -0.284914,
        0.00978,
        0.268994,
        0.485833,
        0.655759,
        0.777989,
        0.853357,
        0.883611,
        0.87422,
        0.831604,
        0.762573,
        0.674657,
        0.574053,
        0.466692
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.006193,
        -0.01523,
        -0.023217,
        -0.029651,
        -0.03438,
        -0.037413,
        -0.038837,
        -0.038788,
        -0.037443,
        -0.035014,
        -0.031735,
        -0.027845,
        -0.023579,
        -0.019161,
        -0.01479,
        -0.010632,
        -0.006819,
        -0.003445,
        -0.000575,
        0.001758
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.86698,
        -1.265243,
        -1.118206,
        -0.900732,
        -0.662033,
        -0.42458,
        -0.19944,
        0.006846,
        0.188296,
        0.340083,
        0.459032,
        0.544592,
        0.59735,
        0.618528,
        0.611954,
        0.582123,
        0.533801,
        0.47226,
        0.401837,
        0.326685
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.189554,
        -0.274416,
        -0.309164,
        -0.320914,
        -0.323253,
        -0.322707,
        -0.322071,
        -0.322157,
        -0.322777,
        -0.323338,
        -0.323176,
        -0.321704,
        -0.318496,
        -0.313343,
        -0.30623,
        -0.297278,
        -0.286709,
        -0.274816,
        -0.261919,
        -0.248355
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.119704,
        -0.29187,
        -0.481658,
        -0.669559,
        -0.843521,
        -0.995713,
        -1.121165,
        -1.217133,
        -1.28285,
        -1.319275,
        -1.328777,
        -1.314685,
        -1.28096,
        -1.23196,
        -1.172057,
        -1.105387,
        -1.035689,
        -0.966142,
        -0.89936,
        -0.837368
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.418997,
        -2.065469,
        -2.313158,
        -2.367768,
        -2.331208,
        -2.254215,
        -2.161744,
        -2.065396,
        -1.970373,
        -1.878842,
        -1.791546,
        -1.708258,
        -1.628568,
        -1.552542,
        -1.480062,
        -1.410943,
        -1.34506,
        -1.282144,
        -1.222084,
        -1.164798
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.037069,
        -0.101914,
        -0.129845,
        -0.137482,
        -0.133634,
        -0.123098,
        -0.108717,
        -0.092226,
        -0.074868,
        -0.057608,
        -0.041202,
        -0.026136,
        -0.012742,
        -0.001309,
        0.008056,
        0.015386,
        0.020787,
        0.024491,
        0.026714,
        0.027685
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.30401,
        -0.44003,
        -0.487158,
        -0.484544,
        -0.451082,
        -0.397383,
        -0.330622,
        -0.256412,
        -0.179804,
        -0.105262,
        -0.036467,
        0.024018,
        0.07449,
        0.11385,
        0.142003,
        0.15951,
        0.167372,
        0.167018,
        0.159909,
        0.147559
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.014349,
        0.029324,
        0.040482,
        0.047021,
        0.049359,
        0.048244,
        0.04446,
        0.038735,
        0.031743,
        0.024091,
        0.016314,
        0.00885,
        0.002038,
        -0.005189,
        -0.012485,
        -0.019065,
        -0.024504,
        -0.028574,
        -0.031192,
        -0.032394
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.031861,
        -0.075432,
        -0.121076,
        -0.164337,
        -0.203306,
        -0.23735,
        -0.266455,
        -0.290875,
        -0.310977,
        -0.327176,
        -0.339894,
        -0.34952,
        -0.356415,
        -0.360937,
        -0.363414,
        -0.364143,
        -0.363391,
        -0.361383,
        -0.35832,
        -0.354377
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.004542,
        0.010754,
        0.017262,
        0.023429,
        0.028985,
        0.033838,
        0.037988,
        0.041469,
        0.044335,
        0.046645,
        0.048458,
        0.04983,
        0.050813,
        0.051458,
        0.051811,
        0.051915,
        0.051808,
        0.051522,
        0.051085,
        0.050523
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.254239,
        -0.368044,
        -0.407594,
        -0.405644,
        -0.37801,
        -0.333562,
        -0.27828,
        -0.216826,
        -0.153384,
        -0.091645,
        -0.034652,
        0.015477,
        0.057335,
        0.090015,
        0.113435,
        0.128059,
        0.134713,
        0.134577,
        0.128856,
        0.118802
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.369523,
        -0.501895,
        -0.570315,
        -0.600166,
        -0.604479,
        -0.590935,
        -0.564729,
        -0.529817,
        -0.489527,
        -0.446711,
        -0.403752,
        -0.362449,
        -0.324119,
        -0.289774,
        -0.259955,
        -0.234823,
        -0.214252,
        -0.197856,
        -0.185143,
        -0.175516
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.030029,
        -0.078781,
        -0.125752,
        -0.161682,
        -0.18392,
        -0.193069,
        -0.19112,
        -0.180447,
        -0.1634,
        -0.142136,
        -0.118547,
        -0.094182,
        -0.070269,
        -0.047785,
        -0.027437,
        -0.009675,
        0.005266,
        0.017362,
        0.026723,
        0.033556
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.017583,
        -0.041629,
        -0.066819,
        -0.090694,
        -0.1122,
        -0.130988,
        -0.14705,
        -0.160527,
        -0.171621,
        -0.180561,
        -0.187579,
        -0.192892,
        -0.196697,
        -0.199193,
        -0.20056,
        -0.200962,
        -0.200547,
        -0.199438,
        -0.197748,
        -0.195572
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.746454,
        16.080576,
        16.211189,
        16.241938,
        16.224229,
        16.183866,
        16.133806,
        16.080364,
        16.026669,
        15.974307,
        15.92409,
        15.876247,
        15.830825,
        15.788039,
        15.747918,
        15.710386,
        15.67534,
        15.642559,
        15.611879,
        15.583134
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.120114,
        -0.315124,
        -0.503009,
        -0.646727,
        -0.735678,
        -0.772275,
        -0.76448,
        -0.721789,
        -0.653601,
        -0.568545,
        -0.474186,
        -0.37673,
        -0.281078,
        -0.19114,
        -0.109746,
        -0.038698,
        0.021066,
        0.069449,
        0.106892,
        0.134224
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.032739,
        -0.031741,
        -0.029117,
        -0.024928,
        -0.01954,
        -0.013412,
        -0.006979,
        -0.00061,
        0.005403,
        0.010848,
        0.015584,
        0.019534,
        0.022671,
        0.025012,
        0.026603,
        0.027516,
        0.027837,
        0.02766,
        0.02708,
        0.026188
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.030029,
        0.078781,
        0.125752,
        0.161682,
        0.18392,
        0.193069,
        0.19112,
        0.180447,
        0.1634,
        0.142136,
        0.118547,
        0.094182,
        0.070269,
        0.047785,
        0.027437,
        0.009675,
        -0.005266,
        -0.017362,
        -0.026723,
        -0.033556
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.087559,
        1.214262,
        1.27445,
        1.267604,
        1.20348,
        1.095512,
        0.957493,
        0.801994,
        0.63976,
        0.479526,
        0.328003,
        0.189997,
        0.068645,
        -0.034342,
        -0.118487,
        -0.184303,
        -0.233041,
        -0.266471,
        -0.286662,
        -0.295808
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.561791,
        1.500441,
        1.392828,
        1.241992,
        1.059012,
        0.857075,
        0.648558,
        0.443835,
        0.250964,
        0.075754,
        -0.078031,
        -0.208404,
        -0.314825,
        -0.397883,
        -0.459062,
        -0.500479,
        -0.524646,
        -0.534271,
        -0.532064,
        -0.520614
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.965312,
        0.930428,
        0.856077,
        0.743672,
        0.602233,
        0.442962,
        0.276575,
        0.11216,
        -0.043135,
        -0.18409,
        -0.30725,
        -0.410711,
        -0.493843,
        -0.557021,
        -0.601421,
        -0.628803,
        -0.641296,
        -0.641223,
        -0.630929,
        -0.612669
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.5893,
        0.571329,
        0.524105,
        0.448696,
        0.351728,
        0.241416,
        0.125613,
        0.010978,
        -0.097255,
        -0.19526,
        -0.280509,
        -0.351605,
        -0.408084,
        -0.450216,
        -0.478858,
        -0.495292,
        -0.50107,
        -0.497884,
        -0.487442,
        -0.471384
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.508646,
        -2.060763,
        -2.328325,
        -2.439804,
        -2.460445,
        -2.425465,
        -2.355117,
        -2.26185,
        -2.154307,
        -2.03901,
        -1.921064,
        -1.804183,
        -1.691113,
        -1.584207,
        -1.48492,
        -1.393948,
        -1.311407,
        -1.236886,
        -1.169731,
        -1.109045
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.510476,
        2.047315,
        2.293222,
        2.386784,
        2.398332,
        2.36506,
        2.307559,
        2.236333,
        2.157799,
        2.076123,
        1.994122,
        1.913401,
        1.834908,
        1.759612,
        1.687971,
        1.620028,
        1.555566,
        1.494069,
        1.434983,
        1.377675
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        65.070923,
        58.388478,
        55.776221,
        55.161241,
        55.515426,
        56.322677,
        57.323873,
        58.392724,
        59.466623,
        60.513867,
        61.518205,
        62.475064,
        63.383491,
        64.239214,
        65.041638,
        65.792276,
        66.4932,
        67.148824,
        67.76242,
        68.337329
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.264189,
        100.515787,
        100.692161,
        100.800801,
        100.864559,
        100.901414,
        100.922487,
        100.934861,
        100.941565,
        100.942922,
        100.937934,
        100.926402,
        100.908038,
        100.881175,
        100.845394,
        100.801127,
        100.749139,
        100.691241,
        100.628833,
        100.563317
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.320032,
        98.427364,
        97.557257,
        96.817102,
        96.244672,
        95.83727,
        95.574328,
        95.43203,
        95.385529,
        95.411071,
        95.487456,
        95.599011,
        95.733156,
        95.877019,
        96.021775,
        96.16169,
        96.292894,
        96.414648,
        96.526356,
        96.6282
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        3.507868,
        3.284951,
        3.196351,
        3.174476,
        3.185585,
        3.212292,
        3.245538,
        3.281065,
        3.316795,
        3.35166,
        3.385078,
        3.417017,
        3.447529,
        3.476267,
        3.503108,
        3.528058,
        3.551091,
        3.572454,
        3.59222,
        3.610513
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.257463,
        100.502625,
        100.673504,
        100.77609,
        100.831639,
        100.858732,
        100.86983,
        100.872257,
        100.869401,
        100.862208,
        100.850415,
        100.83367,
        100.811576,
        100.783532,
        100.749526,
        100.709986,
        100.66561,
        100.617417,
        100.566425,
        100.513697
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.079999,
        100.156705,
        100.213424,
        100.255523,
        100.292429,
        100.329455,
        100.366099,
        100.402914,
        100.439123,
        100.472727,
        100.501225,
        100.52255,
        100.535141,
        100.537791,
        100.530232,
        100.512911,
        100.485853,
        100.451439,
        100.410545,
        100.36459
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2034.497144,
        2052.792163,
        2061.841039,
        2065.268558,
        2065.171206,
        2062.852705,
        2059.16531,
        2054.684284,
        2049.807973,
        2044.820443,
        2039.9262,
        2035.261336,
        2030.91703,
        2026.962639,
        2023.435118,
        2020.346273,
        2017.690582,
        2015.444138,
        2013.576612,
        2012.051783
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.8234,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 3,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -1.5197,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.9929,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 3
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}