{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_50_ru",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $50/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_50",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 50.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "RU",
    "name": "Russia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.173867,
        -1.701022,
        -1.899968,
        -1.929468,
        -1.86743,
        -1.77158,
        -1.699683,
        -1.633146,
        -1.564985,
        -1.493507,
        -1.419182,
        -1.342801,
        -1.265189,
        -1.187404,
        -1.109991,
        -1.033794,
        -0.972112,
        -0.905819,
        -0.850878,
        -0.805618
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.509236,
        -0.822448,
        -0.987148,
        -1.054267,
        -1.059016,
        -1.031623,
        -1.003534,
        -0.973472,
        -0.94,
        -0.902778,
        -0.8623,
        -0.819271,
        -0.77444,
        -0.728619,
        -0.682375,
        -0.636347,
        -0.596658,
        -0.556043,
        -0.520608,
        -0.490494
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.035613,
        -0.133646,
        -0.173005,
        -0.181686,
        -0.175792,
        -0.163899,
        -0.151191,
        -0.138857,
        -0.12722,
        -0.11644,
        -0.106531,
        -0.097583,
        -0.089504,
        -0.08228,
        -0.075851,
        -0.07015,
        -0.065527,
        -0.061344,
        -0.057897,
        -0.055154
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.127878,
        -0.343222,
        -0.553531,
        -0.717774,
        -0.826019,
        -0.883533,
        -0.902607,
        -0.894372,
        -0.86753,
        -0.828657,
        -0.782616,
        -0.732985,
        -0.682259,
        -0.632238,
        -0.584135,
        -0.538708,
        -0.497093,
        -0.459082,
        -0.424984,
        -0.394991
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.440661,
        4.801604,
        5.459888,
        5.741837,
        5.814991,
        5.770604,
        5.662082,
        5.51854,
        5.355973,
        5.183478,
        5.007245,
        4.829546,
        4.652353,
        4.477925,
        4.307463,
        4.141504,
        3.981151,
        3.825683,
        3.675355,
        3.530347
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.177228,
        -0.418559,
        -0.669344,
        -0.903863,
        -1.110319,
        -1.286492,
        -1.438953,
        -1.570727,
        -1.683377,
        -1.777964,
        -1.855452,
        -1.916788,
        -1.962932,
        -1.994902,
        -2.013707,
        -2.0204,
        -2.017985,
        -2.006315,
        -1.987708,
        -1.964057
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.39962,
        1.072569,
        1.729784,
        2.243043,
        2.581309,
        2.76104,
        2.820647,
        2.794914,
        2.711031,
        2.589554,
        2.445676,
        2.290577,
        2.132058,
        1.975745,
        1.825422,
        1.683461,
        1.553416,
        1.434631,
        1.328075,
        1.234346
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.985402,
        -2.79404,
        -3.042133,
        -3.028333,
        -2.891307,
        -2.727614,
        -2.632423,
        -2.564185,
        -2.503559,
        -2.442085,
        -2.376416,
        -2.304909,
        -2.226893,
        -2.142741,
        -2.052477,
        -1.957158,
        -1.880621,
        -1.788716,
        -1.710635,
        -1.643954
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.656117,
        -0.748573,
        -0.809253,
        -0.837889,
        -0.83979,
        -0.82182,
        -0.790408,
        -0.750599,
        -0.706141,
        -0.659836,
        -0.613639,
        -0.568935,
        -0.526686,
        -0.487535,
        -0.451866,
        -0.419864,
        -0.391557,
        -0.366774,
        -0.345296,
        -0.326817
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.633711,
        -0.645769,
        -0.645952,
        -0.634682,
        -0.614406,
        -0.588046,
        -0.558233,
        -0.52696,
        -0.495647,
        -0.465263,
        -0.436435,
        -0.409537,
        -0.384759,
        -0.362159,
        -0.341702,
        -0.323292,
        -0.306796,
        -0.292024,
        -0.278795,
        -0.266919
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.444952,
        -0.446095,
        -0.441688,
        -0.43186,
        -0.417768,
        -0.400817,
        -0.382282,
        -0.36313,
        -0.34405,
        -0.325513,
        -0.307825,
        -0.291173,
        -0.275652,
        -0.261294,
        -0.248088,
        -0.235989,
        -0.224937,
        -0.214841,
        -0.205614,
        -0.197162
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.211338,
        -0.485514,
        -0.754504,
        -0.98881,
        -1.177222,
        -1.32051,
        -1.429671,
        -1.510683,
        -1.567364,
        -1.602657,
        -1.619163,
        -1.61925,
        -1.605098,
        -1.578768,
        -1.542123,
        -1.496918,
        -1.44705,
        -1.392399,
        -1.335746,
        -1.279161
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.020797,
        -0.075683,
        -0.177958,
        -0.328125,
        -0.520219,
        -0.745694,
        -0.996005,
        -1.263171,
        -1.539893,
        -1.819594,
        -2.096456,
        -2.36542,
        -2.622185,
        -2.863177,
        -3.085509,
        -3.286947,
        -3.466079,
        -3.621963,
        -3.754265,
        -3.863216
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.075678,
        -4.743754,
        -4.655244,
        -4.321819,
        -3.894853,
        -3.507465,
        -3.302768,
        -3.135541,
        -2.984714,
        -2.840936,
        -2.700366,
        -2.560165,
        -2.418923,
        -2.277126,
        -2.133956,
        -1.990947,
        -1.896082,
        -1.763706,
        -1.673143,
        -1.601806
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.015378,
        -0.039097,
        -0.062373,
        -0.083982,
        -0.103457,
        -0.120994,
        -0.137508,
        -0.153186,
        -0.168109,
        -0.182314,
        -0.195816,
        -0.208617,
        -0.220711,
        -0.232097,
        -0.242767,
        -0.252721,
        -0.262202,
        -0.27102,
        -0.279386,
        -0.287395
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.152975,
        -3.320628,
        -3.258671,
        -3.025273,
        -2.726397,
        -2.455225,
        -2.311937,
        -2.194878,
        -2.0893,
        -1.988656,
        -1.890256,
        -1.792116,
        -1.693246,
        -1.593988,
        -1.493769,
        -1.393663,
        -1.327257,
        -1.234594,
        -1.1712,
        -1.121264
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.681696,
        -0.985258,
        -1.104483,
        -1.135066,
        -1.124436,
        -1.092965,
        -1.045648,
        -0.993373,
        -0.94114,
        -0.89116,
        -0.844332,
        -0.800792,
        -0.76045,
        -0.723387,
        -0.689546,
        -0.658678,
        -0.628241,
        -0.601419,
        -0.575109,
        -0.549398
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.058705,
        -0.141272,
        -0.230376,
        -0.31727,
        -0.397461,
        -0.469535,
        -0.535033,
        -0.594501,
        -0.64811,
        -0.695938,
        -0.738081,
        -0.774671,
        -0.805873,
        -0.831897,
        -0.852974,
        -0.869365,
        -0.881986,
        -0.890762,
        -0.896417,
        -0.899563
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.638527,
        -3.833542,
        -4.286338,
        -4.37947,
        -4.301575,
        -4.145322,
        -3.954696,
        -3.753587,
        -3.55357,
        -3.36034,
        -3.176621,
        -3.003092,
        -2.839716,
        -2.687138,
        -2.545346,
        -2.413913,
        -2.291486,
        -2.178323,
        -2.072727,
        -1.974051
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.024929,
        -0.093552,
        -0.121103,
        -0.12718,
        -0.123054,
        -0.11473,
        -0.105834,
        -0.0972,
        -0.089054,
        -0.081508,
        -0.074571,
        -0.068308,
        -0.062653,
        -0.057596,
        -0.053096,
        -0.049105,
        -0.045869,
        -0.042941,
        -0.040528,
        -0.038608
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.700178,
        -1.014561,
        -1.133128,
        -1.150583,
        -1.113398,
        -1.056067,
        -1.013177,
        -0.973536,
        -0.932932,
        -0.890338,
        -0.84603,
        -0.800478,
        -0.754175,
        -0.707754,
        -0.661539,
        -0.616038,
        -0.579229,
        -0.539639,
        -0.506845,
        -0.479847
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.115861,
        0.255018,
        0.3793,
        0.475672,
        0.542021,
        0.582455,
        0.605765,
        0.616727,
        0.618242,
        0.612327,
        0.600544,
        0.584143,
        0.56415,
        0.541437,
        0.516717,
        0.490607,
        0.464884,
        0.438997,
        0.414107,
        0.390923
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.041039,
        -0.097141,
        -0.155905,
        -0.211623,
        -0.261867,
        -0.305823,
        -0.343461,
        -0.3751,
        -0.40121,
        -0.422314,
        -0.438942,
        -0.451595,
        -0.460736,
        -0.466804,
        -0.470204,
        -0.471305,
        -0.470435,
        -0.467884,
        -0.463907,
        -0.458727
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001339,
        0.003169,
        0.005086,
        0.006904,
        0.008544,
        0.009978,
        0.011206,
        0.012238,
        0.01309,
        0.013778,
        0.014321,
        0.014734,
        0.015032,
        0.01523,
        0.015341,
        0.015377,
        0.015348,
        0.015265,
        0.015135,
        0.014966
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.645627,
        -0.935562,
        -1.044982,
        -1.061207,
        -1.027086,
        -0.974369,
        -0.934826,
        -0.898231,
        -0.860742,
        -0.821429,
        -0.78055,
        -0.738541,
        -0.695854,
        -0.653072,
        -0.610495,
        -0.568587,
        -0.534662,
        -0.498201,
        -0.467983,
        -0.44309
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.96839,
        -1.348455,
        -1.533484,
        -1.611669,
        -1.628292,
        -1.611951,
        -1.585039,
        -1.550046,
        -1.509121,
        -1.464022,
        -1.416374,
        -1.366925,
        -1.316414,
        -1.265643,
        -1.21507,
        -1.165055,
        -1.118632,
        -1.071845,
        -1.02803,
        -0.986974
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.03197,
        -0.085805,
        -0.138383,
        -0.179443,
        -0.206505,
        -0.220883,
        -0.225652,
        -0.223593,
        -0.216882,
        -0.207164,
        -0.195654,
        -0.183246,
        -0.170565,
        -0.15806,
        -0.146034,
        -0.134677,
        -0.124273,
        -0.11477,
        -0.106246,
        -0.098748
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.046756,
        -0.110673,
        -0.177624,
        -0.241103,
        -0.298346,
        -0.348427,
        -0.391308,
        -0.427354,
        -0.457101,
        -0.481145,
        -0.50009,
        -0.514505,
        -0.524919,
        -0.531832,
        -0.535707,
        -0.53696,
        -0.535969,
        -0.533063,
        -0.528532,
        -0.52263
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.746454,
        16.080576,
        16.211189,
        16.241938,
        16.224229,
        16.183866,
        16.133806,
        16.080364,
        16.026669,
        15.974307,
        15.92409,
        15.876247,
        15.830825,
        15.788039,
        15.747918,
        15.710386,
        15.67534,
        15.642559,
        15.611879,
        15.583134
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.127878,
        -0.343222,
        -0.553531,
        -0.717774,
        -0.826019,
        -0.883533,
        -0.902607,
        -0.894372,
        -0.86753,
        -0.828657,
        -0.782616,
        -0.732985,
        -0.682259,
        -0.632238,
        -0.584135,
        -0.538708,
        -0.497093,
        -0.459082,
        -0.424984,
        -0.394991
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.187557,
        -0.186603,
        -0.183851,
        -0.179344,
        -0.173465,
        -0.166681,
        -0.159414,
        -0.151986,
        -0.144623,
        -0.137482,
        -0.130662,
        -0.124223,
        -0.118195,
        -0.112588,
        -0.107395,
        -0.102601,
        -0.098183,
        -0.09411,
        -0.090352,
        -0.086875
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.03197,
        0.085805,
        0.138383,
        0.179443,
        0.206505,
        0.220883,
        0.225652,
        0.223593,
        0.216882,
        0.207164,
        0.195654,
        0.183246,
        0.170565,
        0.15806,
        0.146034,
        0.134677,
        0.124273,
        0.11477,
        0.106246,
        0.098748
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.246622,
        1.42229,
        1.53758,
        1.591988,
        1.595601,
        1.561458,
        1.501775,
        1.426138,
        1.341668,
        1.253689,
        1.165915,
        1.080977,
        1.000704,
        0.926316,
        0.858545,
        0.797741,
        0.743959,
        0.69687,
        0.656063,
        0.620952
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.851698,
        2.905961,
        2.906786,
        2.856067,
        2.764827,
        2.646207,
        2.512047,
        2.371319,
        2.230411,
        2.093682,
        1.963956,
        1.842919,
        1.731416,
        1.629713,
        1.537657,
        1.454815,
        1.380584,
        1.314107,
        1.254579,
        1.201134
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.648605,
        3.657982,
        3.621841,
        3.54125,
        3.425695,
        3.2867,
        3.134715,
        2.977668,
        2.82121,
        2.669204,
        2.524168,
        2.387621,
        2.260345,
        2.142611,
        2.034318,
        1.935113,
        1.844487,
        1.761695,
        1.686032,
        1.616727
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.376024,
        3.358855,
        3.309326,
        3.228192,
        3.122367,
        3.00025,
        2.869454,
        2.735745,
        2.603222,
        2.474677,
        2.351916,
        2.236016,
        2.127517,
        2.026585,
        1.933113,
        1.846817,
        1.767297,
        1.69398,
        1.626328,
        1.563756
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.953042,
        -5.500999,
        -6.255676,
        -6.583312,
        -6.672868,
        -6.627778,
        -6.50863,
        -6.348615,
        -6.166052,
        -5.971394,
        -5.771674,
        -5.569563,
        -5.367312,
        -5.167502,
        -4.971546,
        -4.780119,
        -4.594478,
        -4.413925,
        -4.238794,
        -4.069341
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.392964,
        4.703394,
        5.319075,
        5.573269,
        5.636791,
        5.601256,
        5.518734,
        5.414584,
        5.300857,
        5.182741,
        5.062802,
        4.940197,
        4.814371,
        4.685647,
        4.553917,
        4.418962,
        4.281603,
        4.141233,
        3.998505,
        3.854211
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        65.070923,
        58.388478,
        55.776221,
        55.161241,
        55.515426,
        56.322677,
        57.323873,
        58.392724,
        59.466623,
        60.513867,
        61.518205,
        62.475064,
        63.383491,
        64.239214,
        65.041638,
        65.792276,
        66.4932,
        67.148824,
        67.76242,
        68.337329
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.264189,
        100.515787,
        100.692161,
        100.800801,
        100.864559,
        100.901414,
        100.922487,
        100.934861,
        100.941565,
        100.942922,
        100.937934,
        100.926402,
        100.908038,
        100.881175,
        100.845394,
        100.801127,
        100.749139,
        100.691241,
        100.628833,
        100.563317
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.320032,
        98.427364,
        97.557257,
        96.817102,
        96.244672,
        95.83727,
        95.574328,
        95.43203,
        95.385529,
        95.411071,
        95.487456,
        95.599011,
        95.733156,
        95.877019,
        96.021775,
        96.16169,
        96.292894,
        96.414648,
        96.526356,
        96.6282
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        3.507868,
        3.284951,
        3.196351,
        3.174476,
        3.185585,
        3.212292,
        3.245538,
        3.281065,
        3.316795,
        3.35166,
        3.385078,
        3.417017,
        3.447529,
        3.476267,
        3.503108,
        3.528058,
        3.551091,
        3.572454,
        3.59222,
        3.610513
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.257463,
        100.502625,
        100.673504,
        100.77609,
        100.831639,
        100.858732,
        100.86983,
        100.872257,
        100.869401,
        100.862208,
        100.850415,
        100.83367,
        100.811576,
        100.783532,
        100.749526,
        100.709986,
        100.66561,
        100.617417,
        100.566425,
        100.513697
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.079999,
        100.156705,
        100.213424,
        100.255523,
        100.292429,
        100.329455,
        100.366099,
        100.402914,
        100.439123,
        100.472727,
        100.501225,
        100.52255,
        100.535141,
        100.537791,
        100.530232,
        100.512911,
        100.485853,
        100.451439,
        100.410545,
        100.36459
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2034.497144,
        2052.792163,
        2061.841039,
        2065.268558,
        2065.171206,
        2062.852705,
        2059.16531,
        2054.684284,
        2049.807973,
        2044.820443,
        2039.9262,
        2035.261336,
        2030.91703,
        2026.962639,
        2023.435118,
        2020.346273,
        2017.690582,
        2015.444138,
        2013.576612,
        2012.051783
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -1.9295,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 4,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -1.6015,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -3.0421,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 3
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}