{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_oil_50_sa",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Oil $50/bbl",
  "shock": {
    "id": "oil_50",
    "spec": {
      "oil": 50.0
    },
    "units": {
      "oil": "usd_per_bbl_level"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "SA",
    "name": "Saudi Arabia"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2.188572,
        -3.172934,
        -3.558491,
        -3.648615,
        -3.594003,
        -3.589835,
        -3.654368,
        -3.747248,
        -3.849072,
        -3.950804,
        -4.048526,
        -4.043157,
        -3.91169,
        -3.790177,
        -3.678474,
        -3.576027,
        -3.482177,
        -3.395788,
        -3.316022,
        -3.242017
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.061129,
        -1.754309,
        -2.132561,
        -2.299978,
        -2.339757,
        -2.365799,
        -2.413391,
        -2.475225,
        -2.543074,
        -2.611349,
        -2.676996,
        -2.690406,
        -2.630246,
        -2.557548,
        -2.483399,
        -2.412169,
        -2.345451,
        -2.283471,
        -2.226064,
        -2.17285
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.113097,
        -0.180126,
        -0.208197,
        -0.212654,
        -0.20492,
        -0.195042,
        -0.187372,
        -0.182668,
        -0.180578,
        -0.180347,
        -0.181497,
        -0.181095,
        -0.177309,
        -0.172899,
        -0.168704,
        -0.164919,
        -0.161541,
        -0.158475,
        -0.155637,
        -0.152956
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.135161,
        -0.290732,
        -0.412943,
        -0.485119,
        -0.508764,
        -0.492686,
        -0.447551,
        -0.383189,
        -0.307796,
        -0.227855,
        -0.148293,
        -0.072644,
        -0.003312,
        0.058114,
        0.110739,
        0.154247,
        0.188755,
        0.21475,
        0.232938,
        0.24417
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.012225,
        0.038002,
        0.07374,
        0.114491,
        0.155653,
        0.193615,
        0.225886,
        0.250967,
        0.268166,
        0.277405,
        0.279057,
        0.273796,
        0.262488,
        0.246103,
        0.225653,
        0.202135,
        0.176493,
        0.149587,
        0.122176,
        0.094912
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.34123,
        -0.81016,
        -1.304412,
        -1.77678,
        -2.207016,
        -2.606826,
        -2.989752,
        -3.361827,
        -3.72544,
        -4.08126,
        -4.429193,
        -4.753475,
        -5.035774,
        -5.280437,
        -5.491468,
        -5.672494,
        -5.826789,
        -5.957228,
        -6.066366,
        -6.156463
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.675805,
        1.453661,
        2.064717,
        2.425595,
        2.543822,
        2.463429,
        2.237755,
        1.915943,
        1.538979,
        1.139274,
        0.741465,
        0.363222,
        0.067869,
        -0.290568,
        -0.553695,
        -0.771233,
        -0.943776,
        -1.073748,
        -1.164692,
        -1.220852
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -8.68469,
        -12.554994,
        -14.047006,
        -14.377778,
        -14.148462,
        -14.136123,
        -14.409751,
        -14.804324,
        -15.239254,
        -15.676027,
        -16.09715,
        -16.104965,
        -15.606513,
        -15.145327,
        -14.720418,
        -14.329369,
        -13.969498,
        -13.636385,
        -13.32688,
        -13.037788
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.394518,
        -0.416098,
        -0.408238,
        -0.375157,
        -0.323597,
        -0.260416,
        -0.191566,
        -0.121779,
        -0.0546,
        0.007469,
        0.062794,
        0.110448,
        0.15005,
        0.181636,
        0.205558,
        0.222397,
        0.232884,
        0.23783,
        0.238079,
        0.234463
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.135617,
        -0.11639,
        -0.089379,
        -0.056459,
        -0.020296,
        0.016558,
        0.05203,
        0.084608,
        0.113298,
        0.137538,
        0.157102,
        0.172027,
        0.182533,
        0.188967,
        0.19176,
        0.19139,
        0.188351,
        0.18313,
        0.176189,
        0.167954
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.011594,
        0.016343,
        0.024834,
        0.036247,
        0.049342,
        0.062919,
        0.075993,
        0.087848,
        0.09801,
        0.106213,
        0.112349,
        0.116435,
        0.118573,
        0.118927,
        0.1177,
        0.115116,
        0.111407,
        0.106802,
        0.101517,
        0.095751
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.504455,
        -1.138543,
        -1.739877,
        -2.246892,
        -2.644408,
        -2.965033,
        -3.239267,
        -3.482431,
        -3.702429,
        -3.903569,
        -4.088445,
        -4.236341,
        -4.325237,
        -4.368706,
        -4.377699,
        -4.360955,
        -4.325397,
        -4.276369,
        -4.218004,
        -4.153452
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.015854,
        -0.065067,
        -0.156167,
        -0.291234,
        -0.468418,
        -0.684548,
        -0.93642,
        -1.221064,
        -1.535763,
        -1.877993,
        -2.245365,
        -2.63488,
        -3.042477,
        -3.463855,
        -3.894824,
        -4.331449,
        -4.770113,
        -5.207536,
        -5.640778,
        -6.067234
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -5.911081,
        -9.409278,
        -9.705196,
        -9.553573,
        -9.220843,
        -9.28446,
        -9.602452,
        -9.988384,
        -10.396532,
        -10.802205,
        -11.192142,
        -11.188439,
        -10.799144,
        -10.561854,
        -10.338633,
        -10.12704,
        -9.925302,
        -9.730497,
        -9.541643,
        -9.357578
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.029555,
        -0.076602,
        -0.125128,
        -0.172896,
        -0.219,
        -0.265422,
        -0.313434,
        -0.363376,
        -0.415359,
        -0.46937,
        -0.525331,
        -0.581273,
        -0.635269,
        -0.688078,
        -0.739771,
        -0.790406,
        -0.840033,
        -0.888685,
        -0.936393,
        -0.983181
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.137756,
        -6.586494,
        -6.793637,
        -6.687501,
        -6.45459,
        -6.499122,
        -6.721716,
        -6.991869,
        -7.277572,
        -7.561543,
        -7.834499,
        -7.831907,
        -7.5594,
        -7.393298,
        -7.237043,
        -7.088928,
        -6.947711,
        -6.811348,
        -6.67915,
        -6.550304
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.456727,
        -2.10791,
        -2.362342,
        -2.42238,
        -2.388345,
        -2.288184,
        -2.15088,
        -1.999797,
        -1.846401,
        -1.696354,
        -1.552423,
        -1.433758,
        -1.344792,
        -1.260552,
        -1.181139,
        -1.106467,
        -1.036401,
        -0.970603,
        -0.908819,
        -0.850794
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.328421,
        -0.799559,
        -1.321594,
        -1.849464,
        -2.361446,
        -2.865491,
        -3.372212,
        -3.886023,
        -4.408354,
        -4.939236,
        -5.478086,
        -6.009433,
        -6.514531,
        -6.995253,
        -7.453381,
        -7.890551,
        -8.308254,
        -8.707771,
        -9.090235,
        -9.456629
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4.487767,
        -6.482564,
        -7.249067,
        -7.415161,
        -7.292298,
        -7.027621,
        -6.700699,
        -6.353773,
        -6.007469,
        -5.671912,
        -5.351997,
        -5.056187,
        -4.786143,
        -4.532611,
        -4.295481,
        -4.074087,
        -3.867637,
        -3.674726,
        -3.494291,
        -3.325285
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.079168,
        -0.126088,
        -0.145738,
        -0.148858,
        -0.143444,
        -0.136529,
        -0.131161,
        -0.127868,
        -0.126405,
        -0.126243,
        -0.127048,
        -0.126766,
        -0.124116,
        -0.12103,
        -0.118093,
        -0.115443,
        -0.113079,
        -0.110932,
        -0.108946,
        -0.10707
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.310105,
        -1.899297,
        -2.130017,
        -2.183886,
        -2.151126,
        -2.148742,
        -2.187634,
        -2.243562,
        -2.304868,
        -2.366121,
        -2.424966,
        -2.42195,
        -2.343267,
        -2.270547,
        -2.2037,
        -2.142395,
        -2.086236,
        -2.034542,
        -1.986811,
        -1.942528
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.219459,
        0.485833,
        0.728004,
        0.92206,
        1.064842,
        1.17351,
        1.263004,
        1.34069,
        1.410253,
        1.4736,
        1.531796,
        1.57572,
        1.596095,
        1.599476,
        1.590859,
        1.574002,
        1.551713,
        1.526021,
        1.498394,
        1.469867
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.084046,
        -0.198923,
        -0.31922,
        -0.433244,
        -0.536029,
        -0.625923,
        -0.702875,
        -0.767548,
        -0.82091,
        -0.864035,
        -0.898003,
        -0.923838,
        -0.942482,
        -0.954832,
        -0.961709,
        -0.963861,
        -0.96196,
        -0.956595,
        -0.948287,
        -0.937494
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001758,
        0.004161,
        0.006678,
        0.009063,
        0.011213,
        0.013093,
        0.014703,
        0.016056,
        0.017172,
        0.018074,
        0.018785,
        0.019325,
        0.019715,
        0.019974,
        0.020118,
        0.020163,
        0.020123,
        0.020011,
        0.019837,
        0.019611
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.962972,
        -1.396091,
        -1.565736,
        -1.605391,
        -1.581361,
        -1.579527,
        -1.607922,
        -1.648789,
        -1.693592,
        -1.738354,
        -1.781351,
        -1.778989,
        -1.721144,
        -1.667678,
        -1.618528,
        -1.573452,
        -1.532158,
        -1.494147,
        -1.45905,
        -1.426487
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.108017,
        -0.163168,
        -0.192539,
        -0.209058,
        -0.218528,
        -0.2414,
        -0.275779,
        -0.313268,
        -0.34981,
        -0.38355,
        -0.413769,
        -0.425738,
        -0.416252,
        -0.405946,
        -0.395092,
        -0.383929,
        -0.372672,
        -0.361477,
        -0.350493,
        -0.339836
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.03379,
        -0.072683,
        -0.103236,
        -0.12128,
        -0.127191,
        -0.123171,
        -0.111888,
        -0.095797,
        -0.076949,
        -0.056964,
        -0.037073,
        -0.018161,
        -0.000828,
        0.014528,
        0.027685,
        0.038562,
        0.047189,
        0.053687,
        0.058235,
        0.061043
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.099372,
        -0.235197,
        -0.377431,
        -0.512248,
        -0.633777,
        -0.740064,
        -0.831048,
        -0.907514,
        -0.970607,
        -1.021596,
        -1.061759,
        -1.092305,
        -1.114349,
        -1.128951,
        -1.137082,
        -1.139627,
        -1.137379,
        -1.131036,
        -1.121213,
        -1.108452
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.746454,
        16.080576,
        16.211189,
        16.241938,
        16.224229,
        16.183866,
        16.133806,
        16.080364,
        16.026669,
        15.974307,
        15.92409,
        15.876247,
        15.830825,
        15.788039,
        15.747918,
        15.710386,
        15.67534,
        15.642559,
        15.611879,
        15.583134
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.135161,
        -0.290732,
        -0.412943,
        -0.485119,
        -0.508764,
        -0.492686,
        -0.447551,
        -0.383189,
        -0.307796,
        -0.227855,
        -0.148293,
        -0.072644,
        -0.003312,
        0.058114,
        0.110739,
        0.154247,
        0.188755,
        0.21475,
        0.232938,
        0.24417
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.006158,
        0.007278,
        0.009694,
        0.013129,
        0.017166,
        0.0214,
        0.0255,
        0.029225,
        0.032413,
        0.034973,
        0.036868,
        0.0381,
        0.038701,
        0.038725,
        0.038238,
        0.037312,
        0.036024,
        0.034449,
        0.032657,
        0.030713
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.03379,
        0.072683,
        0.103236,
        0.12128,
        0.127191,
        0.123171,
        0.111888,
        0.095797,
        0.076949,
        0.056964,
        0.037073,
        0.018161,
        0.000828,
        -0.014528,
        -0.027685,
        -0.038562,
        -0.047189,
        -0.053687,
        -0.058235,
        -0.061043
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.749585,
        0.790585,
        0.775652,
        0.712797,
        0.614835,
        0.49479,
        0.363975,
        0.231381,
        0.10374,
        -0.014191,
        -0.119309,
        -0.209852,
        -0.285095,
        -0.345108,
        -0.39056,
        -0.422555,
        -0.442479,
        -0.451876,
        -0.45235,
        -0.445479
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.610275,
        0.523755,
        0.402205,
        0.254065,
        0.091332,
        -0.074513,
        -0.234134,
        -0.380735,
        -0.509843,
        -0.61892,
        -0.70696,
        -0.774121,
        -0.821398,
        -0.850352,
        -0.862922,
        -0.861257,
        -0.847579,
        -0.824084,
        -0.792851,
        -0.755793
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.095074,
        -0.13401,
        -0.203636,
        -0.297221,
        -0.404607,
        -0.515934,
        -0.623143,
        -0.72035,
        -0.803685,
        -0.870948,
        -0.921263,
        -0.954763,
        -0.972296,
        -0.975201,
        -0.965139,
        -0.943951,
        -0.913539,
        -0.875778,
        -0.832442,
        -0.785155
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.110843,
        -0.130998,
        -0.174492,
        -0.236322,
        -0.308983,
        -0.385196,
        -0.459001,
        -0.526042,
        -0.583433,
        -0.62952,
        -0.663621,
        -0.685793,
        -0.696623,
        -0.697057,
        -0.688282,
        -0.671618,
        -0.648432,
        -0.620074,
        -0.587821,
        -0.552842
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.234029,
        -0.352109,
        -0.430733,
        -0.489328,
        -0.53561,
        -0.572207,
        -0.599784,
        -0.618185,
        -0.627294,
        -0.627256,
        -0.618523,
        -0.601789,
        -0.577964,
        -0.54814,
        -0.51347,
        -0.475113,
        -0.434201,
        -0.391769,
        -0.348761,
        -0.306006
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.035472,
        -0.060208,
        -0.067072,
        -0.054077,
        -0.022546,
        0.024268,
        0.082538,
        0.147011,
        0.21305,
        0.276669,
        0.334615,
        0.384448,
        0.424506,
        0.453825,
        0.472106,
        0.479593,
        0.476945,
        0.465137,
        0.445326,
        0.418777
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        65.070923,
        58.388478,
        55.776221,
        55.161241,
        55.515426,
        56.322677,
        57.323873,
        58.392724,
        59.466623,
        60.513867,
        61.518205,
        62.475064,
        63.383491,
        64.239214,
        65.041638,
        65.792276,
        66.4932,
        67.148824,
        67.76242,
        68.337329
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.264189,
        100.515787,
        100.692161,
        100.800801,
        100.864559,
        100.901414,
        100.922487,
        100.934861,
        100.941565,
        100.942922,
        100.937934,
        100.926402,
        100.908038,
        100.881175,
        100.845394,
        100.801127,
        100.749139,
        100.691241,
        100.628833,
        100.563317
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        99.320032,
        98.427364,
        97.557257,
        96.817102,
        96.244672,
        95.83727,
        95.574328,
        95.43203,
        95.385529,
        95.411071,
        95.487456,
        95.599011,
        95.733156,
        95.877019,
        96.021775,
        96.16169,
        96.292894,
        96.414648,
        96.526356,
        96.6282
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        3.507868,
        3.284951,
        3.196351,
        3.174476,
        3.185585,
        3.212292,
        3.245538,
        3.281065,
        3.316795,
        3.35166,
        3.385078,
        3.417017,
        3.447529,
        3.476267,
        3.503108,
        3.528058,
        3.551091,
        3.572454,
        3.59222,
        3.610513
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.257463,
        100.502625,
        100.673504,
        100.77609,
        100.831639,
        100.858732,
        100.86983,
        100.872257,
        100.869401,
        100.862208,
        100.850415,
        100.83367,
        100.811576,
        100.783532,
        100.749526,
        100.709986,
        100.66561,
        100.617417,
        100.566425,
        100.513697
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.079999,
        100.156705,
        100.213424,
        100.255523,
        100.292429,
        100.329455,
        100.366099,
        100.402914,
        100.439123,
        100.472727,
        100.501225,
        100.52255,
        100.535141,
        100.537791,
        100.530232,
        100.512911,
        100.485853,
        100.451439,
        100.410545,
        100.36459
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2034.497144,
        2052.792163,
        2061.841039,
        2065.268558,
        2065.171206,
        2062.852705,
        2059.16531,
        2054.684284,
        2049.807973,
        2044.820443,
        2039.9262,
        2035.261336,
        2030.91703,
        2026.962639,
        2023.435118,
        2020.346273,
        2017.690582,
        2015.444138,
        2013.576612,
        2012.051783
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -4.0485,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -2.2076,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -16.105,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 12
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}