{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_risk_250_cn",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Risk premium +250bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "risk_250",
    "spec": {
      "risk_premium": 250.0
    },
    "units": {
      "risk_premium": "bp"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "CN",
    "name": "China"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003663,
        -0.26239,
        -0.749911,
        -1.215846,
        -1.558007,
        -1.750556,
        -1.805117,
        -1.749181,
        -1.635447,
        -1.50666,
        -1.371964,
        -1.235577,
        -1.099076,
        -0.963028,
        -0.827838,
        -0.693824,
        -0.562155,
        -0.450243,
        -0.358804,
        -0.286189
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002756,
        -0.159382,
        -0.481833,
        -0.824983,
        -1.102173,
        -1.279129,
        -1.35417,
        -1.342193,
        -1.277197,
        -1.191109,
        -1.095739,
        -0.996441,
        -0.89545,
        -0.793684,
        -0.691651,
        -0.58971,
        -0.488694,
        -0.39938,
        -0.32424,
        -0.263056
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.069708,
        0.037609,
        -0.016578,
        -0.07301,
        -0.11827,
        -0.146566,
        -0.157553,
        -0.153948,
        -0.140838,
        -0.123625,
        -0.105565,
        -0.08829,
        -0.072471,
        -0.058275,
        -0.045774,
        -0.034905,
        -0.025689,
        -0.01881,
        -0.014321,
        -0.011929
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.01673,
        0.001203,
        -0.074243,
        -0.204612,
        -0.370249,
        -0.548127,
        -0.717926,
        -0.864633,
        -0.981292,
        -1.067618,
        -1.125621,
        -1.158249,
        -1.16863,
        -1.15973,
        -1.134286,
        -1.094783,
        -1.043585,
        -0.984577,
        -0.921373,
        -0.856975
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.968164,
        1.038276,
        1.097418,
        1.169173,
        1.257194,
        1.356149,
        1.457971,
        1.554702,
        1.641458,
        1.715326,
        1.773248,
        1.814349,
        1.83847,
        1.845976,
        1.836268,
        1.810111,
        1.768631,
        1.714102,
        1.649317,
        1.577061
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000975,
        -0.040893,
        -0.150337,
        -0.319724,
        -0.525104,
        -0.740876,
        -0.94553,
        -1.123632,
        -1.26903,
        -1.382512,
        -1.46614,
        -1.522389,
        -1.55372,
        -1.562427,
        -1.550636,
        -1.520306,
        -1.473377,
        -1.414208,
        -1.346871,
        -1.274826
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.083649,
        -0.046482,
        0.371213,
        1.023059,
        1.851245,
        2.740635,
        3.589629,
        4.323163,
        4.906459,
        5.33809,
        5.628105,
        5.791246,
        5.843152,
        5.798652,
        5.671432,
        5.473916,
        5.217925,
        4.922885,
        4.606864,
        4.284874
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -25.039142,
        -23.579328,
        -22.730062,
        -21.962592,
        -21.061291,
        -19.970759,
        -18.712967,
        -17.341377,
        -15.960122,
        -14.650538,
        -13.422864,
        -12.277145,
        -11.208434,
        -10.210345,
        -9.276795,
        -8.402112,
        -7.582918,
        -6.850316,
        -6.200974,
        -5.62725
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.345232,
        -0.469985,
        -0.603587,
        -0.73501,
        -0.854214,
        -0.954012,
        -1.030462,
        -1.082507,
        -1.111276,
        -1.119063,
        -1.108683,
        -1.083152,
        -1.045492,
        -0.998454,
        -0.944638,
        -0.886477,
        -0.826212,
        -0.765854,
        -0.706962,
        -0.650648
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.772929,
        -0.813382,
        -0.849902,
        -0.87964,
        -0.900042,
        -0.909565,
        -0.907831,
        -0.895478,
        -0.873888,
        -0.844778,
        -0.809865,
        -0.770746,
        -0.728851,
        -0.685438,
        -0.641598,
        -0.598267,
        -0.556242,
        -0.51619,
        -0.47857,
        -0.443651
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.592235,
        -0.59784,
        -0.602892,
        -0.605907,
        -0.605528,
        -0.600883,
        -0.591676,
        -0.578119,
        -0.560796,
        -0.540466,
        -0.517892,
        -0.493788,
        -0.468793,
        -0.443466,
        -0.418295,
        -0.393694,
        -0.370018,
        -0.347562,
        -0.326523,
        -0.307007
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.033852,
        -0.127658,
        -0.271809,
        -0.444455,
        -0.622875,
        -0.788447,
        -0.928245,
        -1.037675,
        -1.118226,
        -1.17238,
        -1.202865,
        -1.212293,
        -1.203047,
        -1.177291,
        -1.136987,
        -1.084034,
        -1.022403,
        -0.955714,
        -0.88697
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.003192,
        -0.003638,
        -0.034522,
        -0.099859,
        -0.204567,
        -0.348088,
        -0.525399,
        -0.728803,
        -0.949685,
        -1.179546,
        -1.410564,
        -1.635837,
        -1.849453,
        -2.046468,
        -2.222866,
        -2.375507,
        -2.502373,
        -2.602563,
        -2.676167
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.03535,
        -0.993142,
        -2.46935,
        -3.551737,
        -4.133077,
        -4.252574,
        -4.010933,
        -3.523436,
        -2.972937,
        -2.46916,
        -2.000828,
        -1.570227,
        -1.174342,
        -0.809236,
        -0.471715,
        -0.158811,
        0.128968,
        0.332533,
        0.47203,
        0.558945
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000177,
        -0.005142,
        -0.017489,
        -0.035248,
        -0.055913,
        -0.077176,
        -0.097231,
        -0.114848,
        -0.129713,
        -0.142058,
        -0.152063,
        -0.159914,
        -0.165785,
        -0.169832,
        -0.17219,
        -0.172984,
        -0.172339,
        -0.170677,
        -0.168317,
        -0.165522
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.024745,
        -0.695199,
        -1.728545,
        -2.486216,
        -2.893154,
        -2.976802,
        -2.807653,
        -2.466405,
        -2.081056,
        -1.728412,
        -1.400579,
        -1.099159,
        -0.822039,
        -0.566465,
        -0.3302,
        -0.111168,
        0.090278,
        0.232773,
        0.330421,
        0.391261
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000641,
        0.045653,
        0.13033,
        0.211057,
        0.270158,
        0.30325,
        0.312426,
        0.302504,
        0.28266,
        0.260307,
        0.236995,
        0.213428,
        0.189862,
        0.166384,
        0.143053,
        0.11992,
        0.097179,
        0.077862,
        0.062088,
        0.049565
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.030125,
        -0.116656,
        -0.25637,
        -0.434143,
        -0.631988,
        -0.833487,
        -1.025658,
        -1.201866,
        -1.360577,
        -1.501356,
        -1.624278,
        -1.72961,
        -1.817682,
        -1.888871,
        -1.943583,
        -1.98235,
        -2.007716,
        -2.022253,
        -2.028293
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.087333,
        0.117757,
        0.174082,
        0.237558,
        0.29499,
        0.338997,
        0.366789,
        0.378661,
        0.378376,
        0.370421,
        0.357112,
        0.34012,
        0.320515,
        0.299029,
        0.276165,
        0.252525,
        0.228809,
        0.206631,
        0.186521,
        0.168674
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.048795,
        0.026326,
        -0.011604,
        -0.051107,
        -0.082789,
        -0.102597,
        -0.110287,
        -0.107764,
        -0.098587,
        -0.086537,
        -0.073896,
        -0.061803,
        -0.050729,
        -0.040792,
        -0.032042,
        -0.024434,
        -0.017982,
        -0.013167,
        -0.010025,
        -0.008351
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002198,
        -0.157105,
        -0.448825,
        -0.727373,
        -0.931696,
        -1.046462,
        -1.078725,
        -1.044988,
        -0.976819,
        -0.899782,
        -0.819299,
        -0.737858,
        -0.656376,
        -0.575178,
        -0.494491,
        -0.414495,
        -0.335879,
        -0.269073,
        -0.214498,
        -0.17116
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000246,
        0.017789,
        0.063075,
        0.126775,
        0.195352,
        0.257378,
        0.305451,
        0.336117,
        0.350439,
        0.352049,
        0.34416,
        0.329357,
        0.309595,
        0.286313,
        0.260569,
        0.23314,
        0.204663,
        0.176761,
        0.150646,
        0.127073
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.010276,
        -0.039054,
        -0.083945,
        -0.138752,
        -0.196841,
        -0.252658,
        -0.30225,
        -0.343275,
        -0.374742,
        -0.396659,
        -0.409682,
        -0.414836,
        -0.413318,
        -0.406367,
        -0.395168,
        -0.380839,
        -0.364291,
        -0.346287,
        -0.327455
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        8.2e-05,
        0.000313,
        0.000674,
        0.001113,
        0.00158,
        0.002027,
        0.002425,
        0.002755,
        0.003007,
        0.003183,
        0.003288,
        0.003329,
        0.003317,
        0.003261,
        0.003171,
        0.003056,
        0.002923,
        0.002779,
        0.002628
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002135,
        -0.152973,
        -0.437198,
        -0.708839,
        -0.908318,
        -1.020574,
        -1.052383,
        -1.019773,
        -0.953466,
        -0.878383,
        -0.799855,
        -0.720341,
        -0.640761,
        -0.561446,
        -0.482629,
        -0.4045,
        -0.327736,
        -0.262492,
        -0.209183,
        -0.166848
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.291658,
        -0.390293,
        -0.550077,
        -0.701196,
        -0.817178,
        -0.892064,
        -0.929248,
        -0.935687,
        -0.926174,
        -0.912032,
        -0.893746,
        -0.871282,
        -0.844364,
        -0.812801,
        -0.776159,
        -0.734416,
        -0.687944,
        -0.642833,
        -0.599989,
        -0.559693
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.004182,
        0.000301,
        -0.018561,
        -0.051153,
        -0.092562,
        -0.137032,
        -0.179481,
        -0.216158,
        -0.245323,
        -0.266904,
        -0.281405,
        -0.289562,
        -0.292158,
        -0.289933,
        -0.283572,
        -0.273696,
        -0.260896,
        -0.246144,
        -0.230343,
        -0.214244
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.01332,
        -0.050625,
        -0.108817,
        -0.179864,
        -0.255165,
        -0.327519,
        -0.391806,
        -0.444986,
        -0.485777,
        -0.514188,
        -0.53107,
        -0.53775,
        -0.535783,
        -0.526772,
        -0.512255,
        -0.493681,
        -0.472229,
        -0.448891,
        -0.424479
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        42.542569,
        40.615477,
        39.102205,
        37.745417,
        36.412343,
        35.043892,
        33.628513,
        32.183162,
        30.739595,
        29.332994,
        27.991231,
        26.732713,
        25.567297,
        24.499893,
        23.532561,
        22.664342,
        21.891554,
        21.206886,
        20.60252,
        20.070587
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.01673,
        0.001203,
        -0.074243,
        -0.204612,
        -0.370249,
        -0.548127,
        -0.717926,
        -0.864633,
        -0.981292,
        -1.067618,
        -1.125621,
        -1.158249,
        -1.16863,
        -1.15973,
        -1.134286,
        -1.094783,
        -1.043585,
        -0.984577,
        -0.921373,
        -0.856975
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.265043,
        -0.265462,
        -0.265743,
        -0.265388,
        -0.263939,
        -0.261102,
        -0.256777,
        -0.251029,
        -0.244051,
        -0.236095,
        -0.227414,
        -0.218242,
        -0.208793,
        -0.199251,
        -0.189778,
        -0.180511,
        -0.171568,
        -0.163046,
        -0.15501,
        -0.147496
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.004182,
        -0.000301,
        0.018561,
        0.051153,
        0.092562,
        0.137032,
        0.179481,
        0.216158,
        0.245323,
        0.266904,
        0.281405,
        0.289562,
        0.292158,
        0.289933,
        0.283572,
        0.273696,
        0.260896,
        0.246144,
        0.230343,
        0.214244
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.655941,
        0.892971,
        1.146816,
        1.396518,
        1.623007,
        1.812623,
        1.957878,
        2.056764,
        2.111425,
        2.12622,
        2.106497,
        2.057988,
        1.986436,
        1.897063,
        1.794812,
        1.684307,
        1.569802,
        1.455122,
        1.343228,
        1.23623
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.478179,
        3.660217,
        3.824557,
        3.958378,
        4.050189,
        4.093045,
        4.085241,
        4.029651,
        3.932494,
        3.801502,
        3.644393,
        3.468355,
        3.27983,
        3.084472,
        2.88719,
        2.692199,
        2.503089,
        2.322855,
        2.153565,
        1.996428
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        4.85633,
        4.902289,
        4.943711,
        4.96844,
        4.965327,
        4.927237,
        4.851744,
        4.740576,
        4.598529,
        4.43182,
        4.246714,
        4.049061,
        3.8441,
        3.636425,
        3.430016,
        3.228289,
        3.034149,
        2.85001,
        2.67749,
        2.51746
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        4.770772,
        4.778309,
        4.783374,
        4.776984,
        4.750903,
        4.699845,
        4.621977,
        4.518515,
        4.392926,
        4.249719,
        4.093448,
        3.928365,
        3.758277,
        3.586526,
        3.416005,
        3.249199,
        3.088219,
        2.934822,
        2.790182,
        2.654931
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.211745,
        -0.364896,
        -0.465178,
        -0.558455,
        -0.669044,
        -0.804516,
        -0.962089,
        -1.133416,
        -1.308585,
        -1.477534,
        -1.631388,
        -1.765162,
        -1.87603,
        -1.962788,
        -2.023821,
        -2.059261,
        -2.069692,
        -2.056364,
        -2.022059,
        -1.970325
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.016688,
        1.828151,
        1.713072,
        1.674812,
        1.695877,
        1.75585,
        1.838251,
        1.931373,
        2.02937,
        2.129552,
        2.22858,
        2.324283,
        2.413762,
        2.493996,
        2.560886,
        2.611846,
        2.644692,
        2.658197,
        2.653127,
        2.631519
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.764284,
        79.193367,
        78.461056,
        77.753847,
        77.198057,
        76.853583,
        76.728674,
        76.789056,
        76.97687,
        77.243122,
        77.552633,
        77.882677,
        78.218458,
        78.548256,
        78.861232,
        79.146769,
        79.394607,
        79.599664,
        79.761604
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.717132,
        99.037931,
        98.176811,
        97.355838,
        96.719262,
        96.330502,
        96.193195,
        96.257723,
        96.451452,
        96.721446,
        97.03301,
        97.365239,
        97.705595,
        98.045031,
        98.375829,
        98.689954,
        98.970794,
        99.209948,
        99.405391
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.724893,
        99.051263,
        98.172735,
        97.304313,
        96.596286,
        96.124935,
        95.907981,
        95.91238,
        96.073347,
        96.337987,
        96.668439,
        97.039363,
        97.433323,
        97.836233,
        98.233664,
        98.607974,
        98.942384,
        99.227665,
        99.460812
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.984435,
        3.946742,
        3.898458,
        3.851903,
        3.815316,
        3.792539,
        3.784063,
        3.787568,
        3.799355,
        3.816306,
        3.83614,
        3.857373,
        3.87903,
        3.900332,
        3.920619,
        3.939292,
        3.955664,
        3.969318,
        3.980181
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.774671,
        99.234663,
        98.551827,
        97.902813,
        97.401352,
        97.096529,
        96.990066,
        97.040597,
        97.189893,
        97.396985,
        97.635436,
        97.889435,
        98.149658,
        98.40966,
        98.664319,
        98.908695,
        99.12892,
        99.317963,
        99.473941
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.828047,
        99.413622,
        98.885501,
        98.37919,
        97.984582,
        97.743095,
        97.659506,
        97.706489,
        97.838453,
        98.022394,
        98.235694,
        98.464003,
        98.698017,
        98.930919,
        99.156255,
        99.364803,
        99.546606,
        99.696565,
        99.813798
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        3453.465741,
        3354.580263,
        3277.550858,
        3209.013547,
        3141.896375,
        3072.792342,
        3000.733613,
        2926.312824,
        2851.022238,
        2776.673206,
        2704.812634,
        2636.560752,
        2572.623369,
        2513.451851,
        2459.337535,
        2410.391281,
        2366.551542,
        2327.54861,
        2293.04859,
        2262.685137
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -1.8051,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 7,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -1.0169,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -25.0391,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 1
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}