{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_risk_250_pl",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "Risk premium +250bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "risk_250",
    "spec": {
      "risk_premium": 250.0
    },
    "units": {
      "risk_premium": "bp"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "PL",
    "name": "Poland"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00423,
        -0.162691,
        -0.462673,
        -0.751997,
        -0.967278,
        -1.090956,
        -1.128687,
        -1.096683,
        -1.015299,
        -0.904215,
        -0.788051,
        -0.673039,
        -0.559061,
        -0.445765,
        -0.341903,
        -0.252142,
        -0.177442,
        -0.117354,
        -0.070803,
        -0.036264
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.035437,
        -0.089469,
        -0.207657,
        -0.342588,
        -0.459721,
        -0.541353,
        -0.582833,
        -0.587542,
        -0.563123,
        -0.51847,
        -0.465456,
        -0.409078,
        -0.35079,
        -0.291176,
        -0.234355,
        -0.183215,
        -0.138968,
        -0.101883,
        -0.071755,
        -0.048062
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.350164,
        0.107752,
        -0.017758,
        -0.081069,
        -0.112106,
        -0.125125,
        -0.126823,
        -0.120796,
        -0.109774,
        -0.096203,
        -0.081896,
        -0.067798,
        -0.054336,
        -0.041653,
        -0.029954,
        -0.01949,
        -0.010429,
        -0.003103,
        0.002481,
        0.006466
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.210098,
        0.246391,
        0.181832,
        0.071368,
        -0.051178,
        -0.16574,
        -0.260809,
        -0.330625,
        -0.373899,
        -0.392781,
        -0.391406,
        -0.374353,
        -0.345809,
        -0.309272,
        -0.267775,
        -0.223981,
        -0.180184,
        -0.138445,
        -0.100355,
        -0.066966
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1.389539,
        1.15332,
        0.936022,
        0.744432,
        0.580181,
        0.441578,
        0.325517,
        0.22858,
        0.146709,
        0.07572,
        0.013224,
        -0.041829,
        -0.089853,
        -0.130868,
        -0.16467,
        -0.191356,
        -0.211085,
        -0.2252,
        -0.23461,
        -0.24004
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003795,
        -0.027102,
        -0.084441,
        -0.172075,
        -0.279347,
        -0.394339,
        -0.506604,
        -0.608271,
        -0.694339,
        -0.762396,
        -0.813056,
        -0.847582,
        -0.867089,
        -0.872536,
        -0.865844,
        -0.849362,
        -0.825396,
        -0.796051,
        -0.76317,
        -0.728303
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.87541,
        -1.026628,
        -0.757634,
        -0.297365,
        0.215388,
        0.690585,
        1.086704,
        1.377603,
        1.557915,
        1.636588,
        1.630857,
        1.559804,
        1.440872,
        1.288635,
        1.115728,
        0.933254,
        0.750766,
        0.576853,
        0.418146,
        0.279024
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -25.060032,
        -23.341375,
        -21.989489,
        -20.733049,
        -19.463041,
        -18.152474,
        -16.813794,
        -15.475148,
        -14.168133,
        -12.919641,
        -11.764064,
        -10.702493,
        -9.725081,
        -8.822342,
        -8.001943,
        -7.264887,
        -6.606126,
        -6.01847,
        -5.494408,
        -5.026489
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.012333,
        -0.085333,
        -0.165229,
        -0.236884,
        -0.292599,
        -0.329428,
        -0.347369,
        -0.34824,
        -0.33491,
        -0.310695,
        -0.278903,
        -0.242522,
        -0.204098,
        -0.165699,
        -0.128958,
        -0.09511,
        -0.065018,
        -0.039194,
        -0.017825,
        -0.000823
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.163194,
        -0.17563,
        -0.188717,
        -0.197658,
        -0.200389,
        -0.196509,
        -0.186597,
        -0.171774,
        -0.15342,
        -0.132954,
        -0.11166,
        -0.090595,
        -0.070571,
        -0.052173,
        -0.035801,
        -0.021696,
        -0.009958,
        -0.00057,
        0.00659,
        0.011727
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.074049,
        -0.079332,
        -0.085554,
        -0.090186,
        -0.092073,
        -0.090909,
        -0.086888,
        -0.080494,
        -0.072356,
        -0.063134,
        -0.053437,
        -0.04377,
        -0.034525,
        -0.025987,
        -0.018358,
        -0.011759,
        -0.00625,
        -0.001829,
        0.001554,
        0.003991
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.034052,
        -0.126546,
        -0.264849,
        -0.425015,
        -0.583623,
        -0.72263,
        -0.830657,
        -0.902669,
        -0.9387,
        -0.944021,
        -0.924267,
        -0.884016,
        -0.826941,
        -0.757946,
        -0.682065,
        -0.60365,
        -0.526194,
        -0.452348,
        -0.383986
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.037022,
        0.074173,
        0.092859,
        0.084828,
        0.04774,
        -0.017146,
        -0.106281,
        -0.214724,
        -0.336874,
        -0.467174,
        -0.600474,
        -0.732172,
        -0.858258,
        -0.975406,
        -1.081023,
        -1.173248,
        -1.250914,
        -1.313508,
        -1.361084
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.326993,
        -0.98238,
        -1.864416,
        -2.495193,
        -2.837481,
        -2.918425,
        -2.794482,
        -2.530197,
        -2.188462,
        -1.820232,
        -1.493012,
        -1.198891,
        -0.92484,
        -0.664346,
        -0.446437,
        -0.276058,
        -0.148708,
        -0.058586,
        0.000346,
        0.034381
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.001635,
        -0.006547,
        -0.015869,
        -0.028345,
        -0.042532,
        -0.057124,
        -0.071097,
        -0.083748,
        -0.09469,
        -0.103791,
        -0.111256,
        -0.117251,
        -0.121875,
        -0.125197,
        -0.127429,
        -0.128809,
        -0.129553,
        -0.129846,
        -0.129844,
        -0.129672
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.228895,
        -0.687666,
        -1.305091,
        -1.746635,
        -1.986237,
        -2.042897,
        -1.956137,
        -1.771138,
        -1.531923,
        -1.274162,
        -1.045108,
        -0.839224,
        -0.647388,
        -0.465042,
        -0.312506,
        -0.19324,
        -0.104096,
        -0.04101,
        0.000242,
        0.024067
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000846,
        0.032475,
        0.092318,
        0.149986,
        0.192851,
        0.217436,
        0.224888,
        0.218451,
        0.202188,
        0.180018,
        0.156853,
        0.133931,
        0.111221,
        0.088651,
        0.067966,
        0.050098,
        0.035235,
        0.023286,
        0.014032,
        0.00717
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.292336,
        0.275082,
        0.297147,
        0.331546,
        0.360855,
        0.375979,
        0.373965,
        0.355809,
        0.325161,
        0.286713,
        0.245566,
        0.204033,
        0.16312,
        0.123479,
        0.086802,
        0.054146,
        0.026079,
        0.002852,
        -0.015568,
        -0.029491
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.245115,
        0.075426,
        -0.01243,
        -0.056748,
        -0.078474,
        -0.087588,
        -0.088776,
        -0.084557,
        -0.076842,
        -0.067342,
        -0.057327,
        -0.047459,
        -0.038035,
        -0.029157,
        -0.020968,
        -0.013643,
        -0.007301,
        -0.002172,
        0.001737,
        0.004526
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002538,
        -0.097425,
        -0.276954,
        -0.449958,
        -0.578554,
        -0.652309,
        -0.674665,
        -0.655354,
        -0.606563,
        -0.540054,
        -0.47056,
        -0.401793,
        -0.333664,
        -0.265952,
        -0.203898,
        -0.150293,
        -0.105706,
        -0.069857,
        -0.042097,
        -0.02151
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000428,
        0.016798,
        0.059786,
        0.122224,
        0.192167,
        0.258626,
        0.313698,
        0.35293,
        0.374948,
        0.380685,
        0.373351,
        0.356053,
        0.331176,
        0.300523,
        0.266371,
        0.230947,
        0.196067,
        0.163085,
        0.132938,
        0.106193
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.006599,
        -0.025118,
        -0.054084,
        -0.089554,
        -0.127245,
        -0.163523,
        -0.19577,
        -0.222438,
        -0.242909,
        -0.257221,
        -0.265824,
        -0.269351,
        -0.268523,
        -0.264107,
        -0.256858,
        -0.247487,
        -0.236619,
        -0.22478,
        -0.212402
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000183,
        0.000698,
        0.001502,
        0.002488,
        0.003535,
        0.004542,
        0.005438,
        0.006179,
        0.006747,
        0.007145,
        0.007384,
        0.007482,
        0.007459,
        0.007336,
        0.007135,
        0.006875,
        0.006573,
        0.006244,
        0.0059
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002652,
        -0.102007,
        -0.290096,
        -0.471502,
        -0.606483,
        -0.684029,
        -0.707687,
        -0.68762,
        -0.636593,
        -0.566943,
        -0.494108,
        -0.421995,
        -0.350531,
        -0.279494,
        -0.214373,
        -0.158093,
        -0.111256,
        -0.073581,
        -0.044393,
        -0.022738
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.418046,
        -0.384949,
        -0.387769,
        -0.390798,
        -0.382,
        -0.359487,
        -0.325588,
        -0.284048,
        -0.23839,
        -0.191249,
        -0.147429,
        -0.107376,
        -0.070296,
        -0.03567,
        -0.005683,
        0.018693,
        0.037532,
        0.051652,
        0.061768,
        0.068533
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.052525,
        0.061598,
        0.045458,
        0.017842,
        -0.012794,
        -0.041435,
        -0.065202,
        -0.082656,
        -0.093475,
        -0.098195,
        -0.097851,
        -0.093588,
        -0.086452,
        -0.077318,
        -0.066944,
        -0.055995,
        -0.045046,
        -0.034611,
        -0.025089,
        -0.016741
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.007332,
        -0.027908,
        -0.060093,
        -0.099505,
        -0.141383,
        -0.181693,
        -0.217522,
        -0.247153,
        -0.269899,
        -0.285802,
        -0.29536,
        -0.299279,
        -0.298359,
        -0.293452,
        -0.285398,
        -0.274986,
        -0.26291,
        -0.249755,
        -0.236002
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        42.542569,
        40.615477,
        39.102205,
        37.745417,
        36.412343,
        35.043892,
        33.628513,
        32.183162,
        30.739595,
        29.332994,
        27.991231,
        26.732713,
        25.567297,
        24.499893,
        23.532561,
        22.664342,
        21.891554,
        21.206886,
        20.60252,
        20.070587
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.210098,
        0.246391,
        0.181832,
        0.071368,
        -0.051178,
        -0.16574,
        -0.260809,
        -0.330625,
        -0.373899,
        -0.392781,
        -0.391406,
        -0.374353,
        -0.345809,
        -0.309272,
        -0.267775,
        -0.223981,
        -0.180184,
        -0.138445,
        -0.100355,
        -0.066966
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.024824,
        -0.026562,
        -0.028604,
        -0.030108,
        -0.030692,
        -0.030255,
        -0.028864,
        -0.026681,
        -0.023917,
        -0.020792,
        -0.01751,
        -0.014239,
        -0.011111,
        -0.00822,
        -0.005633,
        -0.003392,
        -0.001515,
        -4e-06,
        0.001161,
        0.002008
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.052525,
        -0.061598,
        -0.045458,
        -0.017842,
        0.012794,
        0.041435,
        0.065202,
        0.082656,
        0.093475,
        0.098195,
        0.097851,
        0.093588,
        0.086452,
        0.077318,
        0.066944,
        0.055995,
        0.045046,
        0.034611,
        0.025089,
        0.016741
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.023432,
        0.162132,
        0.313935,
        0.450079,
        0.555938,
        0.625913,
        0.660002,
        0.661656,
        0.636328,
        0.590321,
        0.529916,
        0.460791,
        0.387787,
        0.314828,
        0.245019,
        0.18071,
        0.123534,
        0.074469,
        0.033868,
        0.001564
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.734375,
        0.790335,
        0.849225,
        0.889462,
        0.901749,
        0.884292,
        0.839686,
        0.772981,
        0.69039,
        0.598291,
        0.502469,
        0.40768,
        0.317569,
        0.234776,
        0.161104,
        0.097631,
        0.044812,
        0.002567,
        -0.029657,
        -0.052773
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.607206,
        0.650524,
        0.701542,
        0.739522,
        0.755,
        0.745454,
        0.712482,
        0.660052,
        0.593316,
        0.517697,
        0.438182,
        0.358916,
        0.283103,
        0.213097,
        0.150533,
        0.096427,
        0.051249,
        0.015,
        -0.012742,
        -0.032724
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.446837,
        0.478123,
        0.514865,
        0.541936,
        0.552448,
        0.544588,
        0.519552,
        0.480262,
        0.430504,
        0.374258,
        0.315181,
        0.25631,
        0.199995,
        0.147958,
        0.101397,
        0.061056,
        0.027278,
        6.3e-05,
        -0.020896,
        -0.036149
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.625719,
        -0.450943,
        -0.284998,
        -0.143243,
        -0.029313,
        0.058349,
        0.123306,
        0.16963,
        0.2022,
        0.22611,
        0.244584,
        0.259415,
        0.271358,
        0.280561,
        0.286645,
        0.289496,
        0.289611,
        0.287451,
        0.283542,
        0.278227
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.438064,
        1.943195,
        1.551675,
        1.250071,
        1.018865,
        0.841279,
        0.705797,
        0.605251,
        0.534621,
        0.489945,
        0.468556,
        0.468105,
        0.485439,
        0.517151,
        0.559948,
        0.61038,
        0.664976,
        0.718895,
        0.7692,
        0.814418
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.764284,
        79.193367,
        78.461056,
        77.753847,
        77.198057,
        76.853583,
        76.728674,
        76.789056,
        76.97687,
        77.243122,
        77.552633,
        77.882677,
        78.218458,
        78.548256,
        78.861232,
        79.146769,
        79.394607,
        79.599664,
        79.761604
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.717132,
        99.037931,
        98.176811,
        97.355838,
        96.719262,
        96.330502,
        96.193195,
        96.257723,
        96.451452,
        96.721446,
        97.03301,
        97.365239,
        97.705595,
        98.045031,
        98.375829,
        98.689954,
        98.970794,
        99.209948,
        99.405391
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.724893,
        99.051263,
        98.172735,
        97.304313,
        96.596286,
        96.124935,
        95.907981,
        95.91238,
        96.073347,
        96.337987,
        96.668439,
        97.039363,
        97.433323,
        97.836233,
        98.233664,
        98.607974,
        98.942384,
        99.227665,
        99.460812
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.984435,
        3.946742,
        3.898458,
        3.851903,
        3.815316,
        3.792539,
        3.784063,
        3.787568,
        3.799355,
        3.816306,
        3.83614,
        3.857373,
        3.87903,
        3.900332,
        3.920619,
        3.939292,
        3.955664,
        3.969318,
        3.980181
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.774671,
        99.234663,
        98.551827,
        97.902813,
        97.401352,
        97.096529,
        96.990066,
        97.040597,
        97.189893,
        97.396985,
        97.635436,
        97.889435,
        98.149658,
        98.40966,
        98.664319,
        98.908695,
        99.12892,
        99.317963,
        99.473941
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.828047,
        99.413622,
        98.885501,
        98.37919,
        97.984582,
        97.743095,
        97.659506,
        97.706489,
        97.838453,
        98.022394,
        98.235694,
        98.464003,
        98.698017,
        98.930919,
        99.156255,
        99.364803,
        99.546606,
        99.696565,
        99.813798
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        3453.465741,
        3354.580263,
        3277.550858,
        3209.013547,
        3141.896375,
        3072.792342,
        3000.733613,
        2926.312824,
        2851.022238,
        2776.673206,
        2704.812634,
        2636.560752,
        2572.623369,
        2513.451851,
        2459.337535,
        2410.391281,
        2366.551542,
        2327.54861,
        2293.04859,
        2262.685137
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -1.1287,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 7,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.4814,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -25.06,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 1
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}