{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_uk_housing_25_tr",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "UK housing -25%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "uk_housing_25",
    "spec": {
      "housing": {
        "UK": -0.25
      }
    },
    "units": {
      "housing": "fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "TR",
    "name": "Turkey"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -4e-06,
        -0.001566,
        -0.004217,
        -0.008032,
        -0.012458,
        -0.016785,
        -0.020375,
        -0.02277,
        -0.023729,
        -0.023252,
        -0.021707,
        -0.01923,
        -0.016026,
        -0.012327,
        -0.008372,
        -0.004381,
        -0.000545,
        0.002983,
        0.00609,
        0.008704
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -7e-06,
        -0.000783,
        -0.002047,
        -0.003904,
        -0.006199,
        -0.008627,
        -0.01085,
        -0.01258,
        -0.013624,
        -0.013913,
        -0.013566,
        -0.012635,
        -0.011212,
        -0.009411,
        -0.007364,
        -0.005199,
        -0.003037,
        -0.000978,
        0.0009,
        0.00254
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        4.4e-05,
        0.000879,
        0.00065,
        -8.6e-05,
        -0.001082,
        -0.002174,
        -0.003234,
        -0.00416,
        -0.004882,
        -0.005353,
        -0.00554,
        -0.005506,
        -0.005292,
        -0.004935,
        -0.004476,
        -0.00395,
        -0.003379,
        -0.0028,
        -0.002244,
        -0.001734
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        4.6e-05,
        0.000488,
        -6.4e-05,
        -0.001945,
        -0.005001,
        -0.008844,
        -0.013004,
        -0.017018,
        -0.020489,
        -0.023136,
        -0.024812,
        -0.025532,
        -0.025386,
        -0.024497,
        -0.023018,
        -0.021105,
        -0.018896,
        -0.016533,
        -0.014149,
        -0.011856
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000261,
        0.007342,
        0.012942,
        0.017547,
        0.021054,
        0.023307,
        0.02419,
        0.023667,
        0.021798,
        0.018792,
        0.015228,
        0.0113,
        0.007248,
        0.0033,
        -0.000368,
        -0.003607,
        -0.006224,
        -0.008151,
        -0.009374,
        -0.009904
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1e-06,
        -0.000258,
        -0.000904,
        -0.00207,
        -0.003791,
        -0.005998,
        -0.008532,
        -0.011183,
        -0.013725,
        -0.015956,
        -0.017746,
        -0.018998,
        -0.019651,
        -0.019685,
        -0.019113,
        -0.017982,
        -0.016362,
        -0.014339,
        -0.012009,
        -0.009471
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000142,
        -0.001526,
        0.000621,
        0.006079,
        0.015627,
        0.027638,
        0.040639,
        0.05318,
        0.064029,
        0.072299,
        0.077536,
        0.079788,
        0.07933,
        0.076555,
        0.071932,
        0.065952,
        0.05905,
        0.051666,
        0.044215,
        0.037049
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3.5e-05,
        -0.002191,
        -0.005272,
        -0.009174,
        -0.012949,
        -0.015572,
        -0.016278,
        -0.014679,
        -0.010747,
        -0.004802,
        0.002366,
        0.010433,
        0.019022,
        0.027751,
        0.036263,
        0.044253,
        0.051486,
        0.057796,
        0.063088,
        0.067332
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.005668,
        -0.008235,
        -0.011188,
        -0.014281,
        -0.017229,
        -0.019778,
        -0.021734,
        -0.022986,
        -0.023497,
        -0.023298,
        -0.022472,
        -0.02114,
        -0.01943,
        -0.017473,
        -0.015388,
        -0.013289,
        -0.011267,
        -0.009391,
        -0.007709,
        -0.006253
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.014738,
        -0.015226,
        -0.015642,
        -0.01595,
        -0.016099,
        -0.016043,
        -0.015755,
        -0.01523,
        -0.014484,
        -0.013546,
        -0.012457,
        -0.011267,
        -0.01003,
        -0.008792,
        -0.007597,
        -0.006478,
        -0.005461,
        -0.004566,
        -0.003801,
        -0.003172
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.008705,
        -0.008762,
        -0.008837,
        -0.008907,
        -0.008937,
        -0.008898,
        -0.008768,
        -0.008539,
        -0.008214,
        -0.007806,
        -0.007334,
        -0.006822,
        -0.006293,
        -0.005768,
        -0.005266,
        -0.0048,
        -0.004382,
        -0.004018,
        -0.003712,
        -0.003465
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.000256,
        -0.000916,
        -0.002125,
        -0.003925,
        -0.006232,
        -0.008875,
        -0.011623,
        -0.014238,
        -0.016508,
        -0.018303,
        -0.019534,
        -0.020151,
        -0.020147,
        -0.019556,
        -0.018439,
        -0.016883,
        -0.014987,
        -0.012857,
        -0.010598
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -2.6e-05,
        -2.8e-05,
        -0.000128,
        -0.00051,
        -0.001362,
        -0.002842,
        -0.00505,
        -0.008013,
        -0.011692,
        -0.015984,
        -0.020733,
        -0.025755,
        -0.030848,
        -0.035813,
        -0.040462,
        -0.044629,
        -0.048179,
        -0.051006,
        -0.053043
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -7.8e-05,
        -0.006611,
        -0.014199,
        -0.023101,
        -0.031389,
        -0.037504,
        -0.040445,
        -0.039819,
        -0.03576,
        -0.028945,
        -0.020972,
        -0.011979,
        -0.002462,
        0.007084,
        0.016217,
        0.024572,
        0.031855,
        0.037891,
        0.042604,
        0.046004
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -3.3e-05,
        -0.000104,
        -0.00022,
        -0.000377,
        -0.000564,
        -0.000767,
        -0.000966,
        -0.001145,
        -0.001289,
        -0.001394,
        -0.001454,
        -0.001466,
        -0.001431,
        -0.00135,
        -0.001227,
        -0.001068,
        -0.000878,
        -0.000665,
        -0.000435
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -5.5e-05,
        -0.004627,
        -0.009939,
        -0.016171,
        -0.021972,
        -0.026253,
        -0.028311,
        -0.027873,
        -0.025032,
        -0.020262,
        -0.01468,
        -0.008385,
        -0.001724,
        0.004959,
        0.011352,
        0.0172,
        0.022299,
        0.026523,
        0.029823,
        0.032203
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        1e-06,
        0.000271,
        0.00073,
        0.00139,
        0.002157,
        0.002906,
        0.003526,
        0.003937,
        0.004098,
        0.00401,
        0.003735,
        0.003298,
        0.002735,
        0.002086,
        0.001392,
        0.000693,
        2.1e-05,
        -0.000597,
        -0.001142,
        -0.0016
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.000155,
        -0.000572,
        -0.001362,
        -0.002581,
        -0.004214,
        -0.006183,
        -0.008365,
        -0.010618,
        -0.012799,
        -0.014806,
        -0.016553,
        -0.017973,
        -0.019025,
        -0.019689,
        -0.01997,
        -0.01989,
        -0.019486,
        -0.018805,
        -0.017899
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.7e-05,
        0.001959,
        0.004289,
        0.006982,
        0.009849,
        0.012653,
        0.015164,
        0.017199,
        0.018648,
        0.019495,
        0.019909,
        0.019967,
        0.019755,
        0.019358,
        0.018854,
        0.018318,
        0.017823,
        0.017421,
        0.017148,
        0.017028
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        3.1e-05,
        0.000615,
        0.000455,
        -6e-05,
        -0.000758,
        -0.001522,
        -0.002264,
        -0.002912,
        -0.003417,
        -0.003747,
        -0.003878,
        -0.003854,
        -0.003705,
        -0.003454,
        -0.003133,
        -0.002765,
        -0.002365,
        -0.00196,
        -0.001571,
        -0.001214
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2e-06,
        -0.000929,
        -0.002501,
        -0.004767,
        -0.007395,
        -0.009962,
        -0.012088,
        -0.013499,
        -0.014051,
        -0.013748,
        -0.012806,
        -0.011308,
        -0.009377,
        -0.007151,
        -0.004773,
        -0.002375,
        -7.1e-05,
        0.002048,
        0.003915,
        0.005486
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000107,
        0.000366,
        0.000814,
        0.001443,
        0.002196,
        0.002989,
        0.00373,
        0.004335,
        0.004743,
        0.004934,
        0.004905,
        0.004664,
        0.004237,
        0.003656,
        0.00296,
        0.002192,
        0.001392,
        0.000598,
        -0.000174
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.001436,
        -0.003927,
        -0.007192,
        -0.011009,
        -0.015193,
        -0.019587,
        -0.024057,
        -0.028497,
        -0.032821,
        -0.036978,
        -0.040931,
        -0.044655,
        -0.048138,
        -0.051373,
        -0.054364,
        -0.057115,
        -0.059638,
        -0.061945,
        -0.064049
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000125,
        0.000342,
        0.000626,
        0.000958,
        0.001322,
        0.001704,
        0.002093,
        0.002479,
        0.002855,
        0.003217,
        0.003561,
        0.003885,
        0.004188,
        0.00447,
        0.00473,
        0.004969,
        0.005189,
        0.005389,
        0.005572
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2e-06,
        -0.000947,
        -0.002551,
        -0.004859,
        -0.007537,
        -0.010155,
        -0.012327,
        -0.013776,
        -0.014356,
        -0.014068,
        -0.013132,
        -0.011634,
        -0.009696,
        -0.007458,
        -0.005065,
        -0.00265,
        -0.00033,
        0.001805,
        0.003684,
        0.005266
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -7.9e-05,
        -0.002293,
        -0.004143,
        -0.005853,
        -0.007291,
        -0.008277,
        -0.008666,
        -0.008374,
        -0.007393,
        -0.005804,
        -0.003858,
        -0.001636,
        0.000748,
        0.003175,
        0.005539,
        0.007748,
        0.009703,
        0.011354,
        0.012674,
        0.013655
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        1.1e-05,
        0.000122,
        -1.6e-05,
        -0.000486,
        -0.00125,
        -0.002211,
        -0.003251,
        -0.004254,
        -0.005122,
        -0.005784,
        -0.006203,
        -0.006383,
        -0.006346,
        -0.006124,
        -0.005755,
        -0.005276,
        -0.004724,
        -0.004133,
        -0.003537,
        -0.002964
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.001637,
        -0.004474,
        -0.008194,
        -0.012543,
        -0.01731,
        -0.022316,
        -0.027409,
        -0.032466,
        -0.037393,
        -0.042129,
        -0.046633,
        -0.050876,
        -0.054843,
        -0.05853,
        -0.061937,
        -0.065072,
        -0.067946,
        -0.070574,
        -0.072972
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.000017,
        15.006465,
        15.021926,
        15.046004,
        15.075113,
        15.105068,
        15.132293,
        15.15433,
        15.169911,
        15.179006,
        15.18336,
        15.183458,
        15.179936,
        15.173504,
        15.164877,
        15.15473,
        15.143668,
        15.132218,
        15.120813,
        15.109772
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        4.6e-05,
        0.000488,
        -6.4e-05,
        -0.001945,
        -0.005001,
        -0.008844,
        -0.013004,
        -0.017018,
        -0.020489,
        -0.023136,
        -0.024812,
        -0.025532,
        -0.025386,
        -0.024497,
        -0.023018,
        -0.021105,
        -0.018896,
        -0.016533,
        -0.014149,
        -0.011856
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.005374,
        -0.005404,
        -0.005438,
        -0.005467,
        -0.005481,
        -0.005469,
        -0.005426,
        -0.005347,
        -0.005235,
        -0.005095,
        -0.004932,
        -0.004755,
        -0.004572,
        -0.00439,
        -0.004216,
        -0.004054,
        -0.003908,
        -0.003781,
        -0.003673,
        -0.003585
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.1e-05,
        -0.000122,
        1.6e-05,
        0.000486,
        0.00125,
        0.002211,
        0.003251,
        0.004254,
        0.005122,
        0.005784,
        0.006203,
        0.006383,
        0.006346,
        0.006124,
        0.005755,
        0.005276,
        0.004724,
        0.004133,
        0.003537,
        0.002964
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.010769,
        0.015646,
        0.021256,
        0.027134,
        0.032736,
        0.037577,
        0.041295,
        0.043673,
        0.044644,
        0.044266,
        0.042698,
        0.040165,
        0.036917,
        0.033198,
        0.029238,
        0.025249,
        0.021407,
        0.017843,
        0.014647,
        0.01188
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.066319,
        0.068518,
        0.070388,
        0.071774,
        0.072444,
        0.072194,
        0.070897,
        0.068533,
        0.065178,
        0.060956,
        0.056055,
        0.050703,
        0.045135,
        0.039565,
        0.034185,
        0.02915,
        0.024576,
        0.020545,
        0.017107,
        0.014272
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.071382,
        0.071844,
        0.072466,
        0.073038,
        0.073285,
        0.072961,
        0.071896,
        0.07002,
        0.067355,
        0.064006,
        0.060135,
        0.055936,
        0.051599,
        0.047298,
        0.043179,
        0.039362,
        0.035931,
        0.032947,
        0.030439,
        0.028409
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.096723,
        0.09727,
        0.097882,
        0.098412,
        0.098659,
        0.098448,
        0.097661,
        0.096249,
        0.094236,
        0.091701,
        0.08877,
        0.085587,
        0.082296,
        0.079027,
        0.075892,
        0.072978,
        0.070351,
        0.068056,
        0.066115,
        0.064531
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000553,
        -0.00788,
        -0.013687,
        -0.018504,
        -0.022264,
        -0.024847,
        -0.026168,
        -0.026214,
        -0.025058,
        -0.02291,
        -0.020334,
        -0.0175,
        -0.014621,
        -0.011899,
        -0.009483,
        -0.007498,
        -0.006122,
        -0.005404,
        -0.005342,
        -0.005915
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.006334,
        0.002562,
        0.007987,
        0.010652,
        0.010542,
        0.00763,
        0.002063,
        -0.005789,
        -0.015345,
        -0.025754,
        -0.035424,
        -0.043836,
        -0.050509,
        -0.05507,
        -0.057284,
        -0.057018,
        -0.054147,
        -0.048717,
        -0.040869,
        -0.030827
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.987556,
        79.967133,
        79.940694,
        79.910222,
        79.87805,
        79.846557,
        79.817785,
        79.793196,
        79.773423,
        79.757575,
        79.745062,
        79.735369,
        79.727987,
        79.722408,
        79.71813,
        79.714689,
        79.711664,
        79.708695,
        79.705493
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.993722,
        99.9823,
        99.966094,
        99.946213,
        99.924435,
        99.902753,
        99.882937,
        99.866279,
        99.853389,
        99.843765,
        99.837022,
        99.832777,
        99.830616,
        99.830108,
        99.830827,
        99.832372,
        99.834382,
        99.836547,
        99.838613
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.986976,
        99.965729,
        99.93838,
        99.906832,
        99.873239,
        99.839827,
        99.808577,
        99.780996,
        99.757848,
        99.738424,
        99.722261,
        99.70894,
        99.698014,
        99.689012,
        99.681449,
        99.674855,
        99.668796,
        99.662885,
        99.656802
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.999083,
        3.997589,
        3.995669,
        3.993466,
        3.991147,
        3.988877,
        3.986799,
        3.985016,
        3.983571,
        3.9824,
        3.981461,
        3.980717,
        3.980134,
        3.979677,
        3.97931,
        3.979003,
        3.978726,
        3.978454,
        3.978167
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.998721,
        99.994749,
        99.98728,
        99.976711,
        99.964263,
        99.951458,
        99.939701,
        99.930037,
        99.923014,
        99.918475,
        99.916234,
        99.916042,
        99.917597,
        99.920571,
        99.924628,
        99.929452,
        99.934756,
        99.940289,
        99.945845
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.990061,
        99.974793,
        99.956263,
        99.935944,
        99.915212,
        99.895343,
        99.877388,
        99.862072,
        99.849653,
        99.839423,
        99.830948,
        99.823892,
        99.817945,
        99.812809,
        99.808198,
        99.803848,
        99.799527,
        99.795038,
        99.790226
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2000.054157,
        2000.397429,
        2001.269827,
        2002.662368,
        2004.387181,
        2006.214195,
        2007.937647,
        2009.406371,
        2010.53147,
        2011.291464,
        2011.763099,
        2011.964458,
        2011.925277,
        2011.681934,
        2011.273471,
        2010.738647,
        2010.113714,
        2009.431592,
        2008.72076,
        2008.003904
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.0237,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0304,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 0.0673,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 20
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}