{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_uk_housing_25_za",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "UK housing -25%",
  "shock": {
    "id": "uk_housing_25",
    "spec": {
      "housing": {
        "UK": -0.25
      }
    },
    "units": {
      "housing": "fraction"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "ZA",
    "name": "South Africa"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2e-06,
        -0.00174,
        -0.005227,
        -0.010471,
        -0.016702,
        -0.023018,
        -0.028662,
        -0.033122,
        -0.036134,
        -0.037703,
        -0.038251,
        -0.037876,
        -0.036722,
        -0.034958,
        -0.032758,
        -0.03029,
        -0.027707,
        -0.025136,
        -0.022683,
        -0.020425
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        3.9e-05,
        -0.000836,
        -0.002574,
        -0.005244,
        -0.008576,
        -0.012152,
        -0.015558,
        -0.018467,
        -0.02067,
        -0.022101,
        -0.022917,
        -0.023164,
        -0.022907,
        -0.022229,
        -0.021223,
        -0.019987,
        -0.018614,
        -0.017186,
        -0.015773,
        -0.014431
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000389,
        0.000743,
        0.000665,
        -1.2e-05,
        -0.000938,
        -0.001906,
        -0.002797,
        -0.003536,
        -0.004085,
        -0.004424,
        -0.004516,
        -0.004454,
        -0.00429,
        -0.004057,
        -0.003777,
        -0.00347,
        -0.003147,
        -0.002818,
        -0.002496,
        -0.002193
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000291,
        5.1e-05,
        -5.1e-05,
        -0.001071,
        -0.003047,
        -0.005778,
        -0.008954,
        -0.012242,
        -0.015339,
        -0.018006,
        -0.020069,
        -0.021487,
        -0.02229,
        -0.022545,
        -0.022334,
        -0.021746,
        -0.020869,
        -0.019783,
        -0.018565,
        -0.017281
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.002313,
        0.0062,
        0.013859,
        0.020969,
        0.027563,
        0.033448,
        0.038342,
        0.041988,
        0.044233,
        0.045147,
        0.045433,
        0.04517,
        0.044467,
        0.043458,
        0.042287,
        0.041094,
        0.040038,
        0.039256,
        0.038855,
        0.038903
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        7e-06,
        -0.000271,
        -0.001079,
        -0.002638,
        -0.005029,
        -0.00819,
        -0.011948,
        -0.016071,
        -0.020308,
        -0.02443,
        -0.028299,
        -0.031801,
        -0.034853,
        -0.037401,
        -0.039425,
        -0.040925,
        -0.041929,
        -0.042478,
        -0.042625,
        -0.042432
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001215,
        0.000239,
        0.000987,
        0.004463,
        0.012697,
        0.024077,
        0.03731,
        0.051008,
        0.063913,
        0.075024,
        0.08362,
        0.089529,
        0.092877,
        0.093938,
        0.093057,
        0.09061,
        0.086955,
        0.082431,
        0.077353,
        0.072006
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -3e-05,
        -0.006589,
        -0.01946,
        -0.038519,
        -0.060679,
        -0.082472,
        -0.101108,
        -0.114816,
        -0.122825,
        -0.125378,
        -0.12428,
        -0.119988,
        -0.113099,
        -0.104276,
        -0.094181,
        -0.083435,
        -0.07258,
        -0.062062,
        -0.05223,
        -0.043329
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.003923,
        -0.005804,
        -0.008061,
        -0.010563,
        -0.013115,
        -0.015521,
        -0.017617,
        -0.019289,
        -0.020477,
        -0.021168,
        -0.021391,
        -0.021202,
        -0.020677,
        -0.019889,
        -0.018912,
        -0.017818,
        -0.01667,
        -0.01552,
        -0.014408,
        -0.013374
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.013585,
        -0.01437,
        -0.015109,
        -0.015785,
        -0.01636,
        -0.016791,
        -0.017047,
        -0.017114,
        -0.016995,
        -0.016702,
        -0.016254,
        -0.015681,
        -0.015015,
        -0.014291,
        -0.013539,
        -0.012786,
        -0.012055,
        -0.011363,
        -0.010724,
        -0.010147
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.011611,
        -0.011784,
        -0.011967,
        -0.012152,
        -0.012314,
        -0.01243,
        -0.012481,
        -0.012456,
        -0.012351,
        -0.012172,
        -0.011927,
        -0.011633,
        -0.011305,
        -0.010958,
        -0.010605,
        -0.010258,
        -0.009925,
        -0.009615,
        -0.009332,
        -0.009078
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.000376,
        -0.001445,
        -0.003472,
        -0.006513,
        -0.010419,
        -0.014904,
        -0.019618,
        -0.024217,
        -0.028412,
        -0.032055,
        -0.035044,
        -0.037322,
        -0.038879,
        -0.03974,
        -0.039965,
        -0.039633,
        -0.038838,
        -0.03768,
        -0.03626
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -8.1e-05,
        -0.000127,
        -0.000253,
        -0.00066,
        -0.001557,
        -0.003115,
        -0.005444,
        -0.008586,
        -0.012515,
        -0.017154,
        -0.022376,
        -0.028034,
        -0.033969,
        -0.040028,
        -0.046063,
        -0.051944,
        -0.057556,
        -0.062804,
        -0.067616
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000431,
        -0.006632,
        -0.017917,
        -0.032736,
        -0.048102,
        -0.061669,
        -0.071937,
        -0.078218,
        -0.080485,
        -0.079377,
        -0.076746,
        -0.072607,
        -0.067363,
        -0.061408,
        -0.055113,
        -0.048803,
        -0.042757,
        -0.03719,
        -0.032254,
        -0.02804
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2e-06,
        -3.1e-05,
        -0.000121,
        -0.000284,
        -0.000525,
        -0.000833,
        -0.001193,
        -0.001584,
        -0.001986,
        -0.002383,
        -0.002767,
        -0.00313,
        -0.003467,
        -0.003774,
        -0.004049,
        -0.004293,
        -0.004507,
        -0.004693,
        -0.004854,
        -0.004995
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000301,
        -0.004643,
        -0.012542,
        -0.022915,
        -0.033671,
        -0.043169,
        -0.050356,
        -0.054753,
        -0.05634,
        -0.055564,
        -0.053722,
        -0.050825,
        -0.047154,
        -0.042986,
        -0.038579,
        -0.034162,
        -0.02993,
        -0.026033,
        -0.022578,
        -0.019628
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000255,
        0.000775,
        0.001566,
        0.002501,
        0.003437,
        0.004256,
        0.004882,
        0.005279,
        0.005453,
        0.005473,
        0.005354,
        0.005119,
        0.004792,
        0.004402,
        0.003975,
        0.003533,
        0.003098,
        0.002684,
        0.002304
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.000144,
        -0.000574,
        -0.001429,
        -0.002781,
        -0.004625,
        -0.006894,
        -0.009479,
        -0.012252,
        -0.015091,
        -0.017909,
        -0.020632,
        -0.023196,
        -0.025555,
        -0.027677,
        -0.029547,
        -0.03116,
        -0.032522,
        -0.03365,
        -0.034565
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000324,
        0.000886,
        0.00195,
        0.002881,
        0.00365,
        0.004224,
        0.004589,
        0.004747,
        0.004714,
        0.004531,
        0.004318,
        0.004081,
        0.003833,
        0.00359,
        0.003365,
        0.003175,
        0.003035,
        0.00296,
        0.002959,
        0.003037
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000272,
        0.00052,
        0.000466,
        -9e-06,
        -0.000656,
        -0.001335,
        -0.001958,
        -0.002475,
        -0.00286,
        -0.003097,
        -0.003161,
        -0.003118,
        -0.003003,
        -0.00284,
        -0.002644,
        -0.002429,
        -0.002203,
        -0.001973,
        -0.001747,
        -0.001535
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1e-06,
        -0.001035,
        -0.003114,
        -0.006242,
        -0.009959,
        -0.013727,
        -0.017092,
        -0.019747,
        -0.021538,
        -0.022466,
        -0.022783,
        -0.022549,
        -0.02185,
        -0.020786,
        -0.019461,
        -0.017978,
        -0.016425,
        -0.01488,
        -0.013405,
        -0.012048
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000119,
        0.000443,
        0.001037,
        0.001895,
        0.002951,
        0.004104,
        0.005248,
        0.006287,
        0.00715,
        0.007816,
        0.008275,
        0.008531,
        0.008596,
        0.008494,
        0.008251,
        0.007898,
        0.007465,
        0.006983,
        0.006477
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.002694,
        -0.007361,
        -0.013467,
        -0.020588,
        -0.028377,
        -0.03654,
        -0.044835,
        -0.053068,
        -0.061089,
        -0.068801,
        -0.076135,
        -0.083049,
        -0.089516,
        -0.095526,
        -0.101081,
        -0.106193,
        -0.110878,
        -0.115158,
        -0.119059
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.000101,
        0.000275,
        0.000502,
        0.000768,
        0.001059,
        0.001363,
        0.001673,
        0.00198,
        0.002279,
        0.002567,
        0.00284,
        0.003098,
        0.003339,
        0.003564,
        0.003771,
        0.003962,
        0.004136,
        0.004296,
        0.004442
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -2e-06,
        -0.00111,
        -0.003335,
        -0.006681,
        -0.010656,
        -0.014685,
        -0.018286,
        -0.021132,
        -0.023054,
        -0.024055,
        -0.024404,
        -0.024165,
        -0.023429,
        -0.022303,
        -0.0209,
        -0.019325,
        -0.017677,
        -0.016037,
        -0.014472,
        -0.013031
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000694,
        -0.001949,
        -0.004507,
        -0.007108,
        -0.009659,
        -0.011983,
        -0.0139,
        -0.015278,
        -0.016052,
        -0.016252,
        -0.016152,
        -0.01578,
        -0.015187,
        -0.014434,
        -0.013586,
        -0.012707,
        -0.011863,
        -0.011111,
        -0.010496,
        -0.010046
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -7.3e-05,
        1.3e-05,
        -1.3e-05,
        -0.000268,
        -0.000762,
        -0.001445,
        -0.002239,
        -0.00306,
        -0.003835,
        -0.004501,
        -0.005017,
        -0.005372,
        -0.005573,
        -0.005636,
        -0.005583,
        -0.005437,
        -0.005217,
        -0.004946,
        -0.004641,
        -0.00432
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.003133,
        -0.008559,
        -0.015659,
        -0.02394,
        -0.032996,
        -0.042488,
        -0.052134,
        -0.061707,
        -0.071034,
        -0.080001,
        -0.088529,
        -0.096568,
        -0.104088,
        -0.111077,
        -0.117536,
        -0.12348,
        -0.128928,
        -0.133905,
        -0.138441
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.000017,
        15.006465,
        15.021926,
        15.046004,
        15.075113,
        15.105068,
        15.132293,
        15.15433,
        15.169911,
        15.179006,
        15.18336,
        15.183458,
        15.179936,
        15.173504,
        15.164877,
        15.15473,
        15.143668,
        15.132218,
        15.120813,
        15.109772
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000291,
        5.1e-05,
        -5.1e-05,
        -0.001071,
        -0.003047,
        -0.005778,
        -0.008954,
        -0.012242,
        -0.015339,
        -0.018006,
        -0.020069,
        -0.021487,
        -0.02229,
        -0.022545,
        -0.022334,
        -0.021746,
        -0.020869,
        -0.019783,
        -0.018565,
        -0.017281
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.008806,
        -0.008857,
        -0.00891,
        -0.008963,
        -0.009007,
        -0.009034,
        -0.009039,
        -0.009017,
        -0.008967,
        -0.008892,
        -0.008794,
        -0.008679,
        -0.008553,
        -0.008419,
        -0.008283,
        -0.008149,
        -0.00802,
        -0.007898,
        -0.007785,
        -0.007682
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        7.3e-05,
        -1.3e-05,
        1.3e-05,
        0.000268,
        0.000762,
        0.001445,
        0.002239,
        0.00306,
        0.003835,
        0.004501,
        0.005017,
        0.005372,
        0.005573,
        0.005636,
        0.005583,
        0.005437,
        0.005217,
        0.004946,
        0.004641,
        0.00432
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.007454,
        0.011028,
        0.015316,
        0.02007,
        0.024919,
        0.029489,
        0.033471,
        0.036649,
        0.038906,
        0.04022,
        0.040642,
        0.040285,
        0.039286,
        0.037789,
        0.035933,
        0.033854,
        0.031673,
        0.029488,
        0.027376,
        0.025412
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.061132,
        0.064664,
        0.06799,
        0.071034,
        0.07362,
        0.075559,
        0.07671,
        0.077011,
        0.076479,
        0.07516,
        0.073144,
        0.070564,
        0.06757,
        0.064311,
        0.060926,
        0.057537,
        0.054245,
        0.051132,
        0.048257,
        0.045661
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.095212,
        0.096625,
        0.098133,
        0.099645,
        0.100976,
        0.101928,
        0.102347,
        0.10214,
        0.101281,
        0.099807,
        0.097804,
        0.095391,
        0.0927,
        0.089852,
        0.086959,
        0.084113,
        0.081389,
        0.078844,
        0.07652,
        0.074443
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.15851,
        0.159423,
        0.160386,
        0.161332,
        0.162124,
        0.162617,
        0.162699,
        0.162303,
        0.161413,
        0.160056,
        0.158299,
        0.156231,
        0.153948,
        0.151544,
        0.149101,
        0.146689,
        0.144363,
        0.142168,
        0.140135,
        0.138284
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001856,
        -0.006323,
        -0.013806,
        -0.020874,
        -0.027548,
        -0.033637,
        -0.038859,
        -0.042964,
        -0.0458,
        -0.047433,
        -0.048531,
        -0.049171,
        -0.049455,
        -0.049504,
        -0.049449,
        -0.049416,
        -0.049549,
        -0.049972,
        -0.050776,
        -0.052017
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.008908,
        0.00142,
        0.008904,
        0.014074,
        0.017051,
        0.017771,
        0.016214,
        0.012532,
        0.00709,
        0.000602,
        -0.005219,
        -0.009965,
        -0.01329,
        -0.014912,
        -0.014629,
        -0.012317,
        -0.007885,
        -0.001309,
        0.00736,
        0.01798
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.987556,
        79.967133,
        79.940694,
        79.910222,
        79.87805,
        79.846557,
        79.817785,
        79.793196,
        79.773423,
        79.757575,
        79.745062,
        79.735369,
        79.727987,
        79.722408,
        79.71813,
        79.714689,
        79.711664,
        79.708695,
        79.705493
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.993722,
        99.9823,
        99.966094,
        99.946213,
        99.924435,
        99.902753,
        99.882937,
        99.866279,
        99.853389,
        99.843765,
        99.837022,
        99.832777,
        99.830616,
        99.830108,
        99.830827,
        99.832372,
        99.834382,
        99.836547,
        99.838613
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.986976,
        99.965729,
        99.93838,
        99.906832,
        99.873239,
        99.839827,
        99.808577,
        99.780996,
        99.757848,
        99.738424,
        99.722261,
        99.70894,
        99.698014,
        99.689012,
        99.681449,
        99.674855,
        99.668796,
        99.662885,
        99.656802
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.999083,
        3.997589,
        3.995669,
        3.993466,
        3.991147,
        3.988877,
        3.986799,
        3.985016,
        3.983571,
        3.9824,
        3.981461,
        3.980717,
        3.980134,
        3.979677,
        3.97931,
        3.979003,
        3.978726,
        3.978454,
        3.978167
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.998721,
        99.994749,
        99.98728,
        99.976711,
        99.964263,
        99.951458,
        99.939701,
        99.930037,
        99.923014,
        99.918475,
        99.916234,
        99.916042,
        99.917597,
        99.920571,
        99.924628,
        99.929452,
        99.934756,
        99.940289,
        99.945845
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.990061,
        99.974793,
        99.956263,
        99.935944,
        99.915212,
        99.895343,
        99.877388,
        99.862072,
        99.849653,
        99.839423,
        99.830948,
        99.823892,
        99.817945,
        99.812809,
        99.808198,
        99.803848,
        99.799527,
        99.795038,
        99.790226
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2000.054157,
        2000.397429,
        2001.269827,
        2002.662368,
        2004.387181,
        2006.214195,
        2007.937647,
        2009.406371,
        2010.53147,
        2011.291464,
        2011.763099,
        2011.964458,
        2011.925277,
        2011.681934,
        2011.273471,
        2010.738647,
        2010.113714,
        2009.431592,
        2008.72076,
        2008.003904
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.0383,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0256,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.1254,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 10
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}