{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_jp",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "US policy rate -200bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "us_cut_200",
    "spec": {
      "monetary": {
        "US": -200.0
      }
    },
    "units": {
      "monetary": "bp_deviation"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "JP",
    "name": "Japan"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001084,
        0.00135,
        0.001856,
        0.002521,
        0.003263,
        0.004018,
        0.0048,
        0.005668,
        0.005513,
        0.004619,
        0.003299,
        0.001872,
        0.00056,
        -0.000514,
        -0.001301,
        -0.001792,
        -0.002005,
        -0.00198,
        -0.001771,
        -0.001421
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000399,
        0.000589,
        0.000737,
        0.000831,
        0.000867,
        0.000835,
        0.000752,
        0.000658,
        0.000237,
        -0.000405,
        -0.001133,
        -0.001802,
        -0.002314,
        -0.002627,
        -0.002739,
        -0.00267,
        -0.002452,
        -0.002124,
        -0.001728,
        -0.001297
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.013766,
        -0.020986,
        -0.018699,
        -0.013896,
        -0.009354,
        -0.006023,
        -0.004112,
        -0.00351,
        0.002502,
        0.008747,
        0.013279,
        0.015665,
        0.016109,
        0.015043,
        0.012941,
        0.010236,
        0.00729,
        0.004381,
        0.001708,
        -0.000596
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000909,
        -0.002371,
        -0.003723,
        -0.004721,
        -0.005345,
        -0.005667,
        -0.005791,
        -0.005822,
        -0.005422,
        -0.00456,
        -0.003361,
        -0.001999,
        -0.000637,
        0.000599,
        0.001622,
        0.002387,
        0.002878,
        0.003106,
        0.003099,
        0.002894
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.117661,
        -0.242127,
        -0.318491,
        -0.362857,
        -0.387543,
        -0.402431,
        -0.415398,
        -0.432247,
        -0.401522,
        -0.342571,
        -0.270289,
        -0.195535,
        -0.125754,
        -0.065624,
        -0.017644,
        0.017343,
        0.0397,
        0.050594,
        0.051682,
        0.044897
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000144,
        0.000352,
        0.000644,
        0.001026,
        0.001493,
        0.002035,
        0.002647,
        0.003333,
        0.003965,
        0.004451,
        0.004741,
        0.004824,
        0.004721,
        0.004468,
        0.004106,
        0.003681,
        0.003231,
        0.002791,
        0.002388,
        0.002041
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.047581,
        0.125403,
        0.219085,
        0.3228,
        0.432673,
        0.546606,
        0.663941,
        0.784488,
        0.572105,
        0.390487,
        0.238803,
        0.11662,
        0.022755,
        -0.044956,
        -0.089478,
        -0.114269,
        -0.122979,
        -0.119194,
        -0.10625,
        -0.087121
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.010564,
        0.023634,
        0.039913,
        0.058272,
        0.077874,
        0.098202,
        0.119171,
        0.140898,
        0.107085,
        0.076045,
        0.048493,
        0.025228,
        0.006685,
        -0.007126,
        -0.016519,
        -0.022004,
        -0.024187,
        -0.023737,
        -0.021317,
        -0.017511
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.004293,
        -0.004858,
        -0.005131,
        -0.005086,
        -0.004746,
        -0.004157,
        -0.003374,
        -0.002447,
        -0.001421,
        -0.000384,
        0.000575,
        0.001382,
        0.001994,
        0.002389,
        0.002567,
        0.002547,
        0.002356,
        0.002031,
        0.001609,
        0.001127
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.001687,
        -0.001515,
        -0.001295,
        -0.001036,
        -0.000757,
        -0.000476,
        -0.000206,
        4.5e-05,
        0.000277,
        0.000473,
        0.000612,
        0.000682,
        0.000679,
        0.000607,
        0.000474,
        0.000293,
        8.1e-05,
        -0.000149,
        -0.000382,
        -0.000604
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.001247,
        -0.001248,
        -0.001208,
        -0.001129,
        -0.00102,
        -0.000892,
        -0.000751,
        -0.000604,
        -0.000453,
        -0.000309,
        -0.000184,
        -8.6e-05,
        -2.1e-05,
        1.2e-05,
        1.5e-05,
        -6e-06,
        -4.5e-05,
        -9.6e-05,
        -0.000152,
        -0.000207
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        1e-06,
        -5e-06,
        -4.1e-05,
        -0.000139,
        -0.000335,
        -0.000652,
        -0.001086,
        -0.001623,
        -0.002244,
        -0.002915,
        -0.003574,
        -0.004154,
        -0.004601,
        -0.004882,
        -0.004983,
        -0.004907,
        -0.004671,
        -0.004303,
        -0.003834
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.001454,
        -0.004903,
        -0.009803,
        -0.015424,
        -0.021175,
        -0.02668,
        -0.031773,
        -0.036448,
        -0.040133,
        -0.042316,
        -0.042745,
        -0.041433,
        -0.038598,
        -0.034584,
        -0.029794,
        -0.024634,
        -0.019474,
        -0.014623,
        -0.010319
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.004398,
        0.007615,
        0.011348,
        0.014969,
        0.018217,
        0.021027,
        0.023651,
        0.026439,
        0.024614,
        0.020272,
        0.014477,
        0.008368,
        0.002722,
        -0.002015,
        -0.005632,
        -0.008061,
        -0.009332,
        -0.009588,
        -0.009019,
        -0.007787
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        2.2e-05,
        6e-05,
        0.000117,
        0.000192,
        0.000283,
        0.000388,
        0.000506,
        0.000638,
        0.000761,
        0.000863,
        0.000935,
        0.000977,
        0.000991,
        0.000981,
        0.000952,
        0.000912,
        0.000865,
        0.000817,
        0.000772,
        0.000733
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.003079,
        0.00533,
        0.007943,
        0.010478,
        0.012752,
        0.014719,
        0.016556,
        0.018507,
        0.01723,
        0.01419,
        0.010134,
        0.005858,
        0.001905,
        -0.001411,
        -0.003943,
        -0.005642,
        -0.006532,
        -0.006712,
        -0.006313,
        -0.005451
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000217,
        -0.000271,
        -0.000375,
        -0.000514,
        -0.000672,
        -0.000836,
        -0.001008,
        -0.001197,
        -0.001182,
        -0.001018,
        -0.000765,
        -0.000484,
        -0.00022,
        1e-06,
        0.000169,
        0.00028,
        0.000338,
        0.000348,
        0.000322,
        0.000266
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        -4e-06,
        -1.5e-05,
        -3.7e-05,
        -7.6e-05,
        -0.000133,
        -0.000208,
        -0.000304,
        -0.000417,
        -0.000542,
        -0.000673,
        -0.000802,
        -0.000922,
        -0.00103,
        -0.001121,
        -0.001194,
        -0.001248,
        -0.001284
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.010648,
        -0.022024,
        -0.029532,
        -0.034872,
        -0.039309,
        -0.043595,
        -0.048134,
        -0.053216,
        -0.054024,
        -0.051893,
        -0.047616,
        -0.041872,
        -0.035297,
        -0.028456,
        -0.021813,
        -0.015716,
        -0.010396,
        -0.00598,
        -0.002512,
        3.3e-05
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.009636,
        -0.01469,
        -0.013089,
        -0.009727,
        -0.006548,
        -0.004216,
        -0.002878,
        -0.002457,
        0.001751,
        0.006123,
        0.009295,
        0.010965,
        0.011276,
        0.01053,
        0.009058,
        0.007165,
        0.005103,
        0.003067,
        0.001196,
        -0.000418
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.00065,
        0.000812,
        0.001124,
        0.001541,
        0.002016,
        0.002509,
        0.003023,
        0.003591,
        0.003547,
        0.003054,
        0.002294,
        0.001452,
        0.000661,
        -2e-06,
        -0.000506,
        -0.00084,
        -0.001013,
        -0.001045,
        -0.000965,
        -0.000798
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000168,
        -0.000335,
        -0.000539,
        -0.000795,
        -0.001102,
        -0.001449,
        -0.001831,
        -0.002252,
        -0.002543,
        -0.002623,
        -0.002479,
        -0.002149,
        -0.001699,
        -0.001194,
        -0.000694,
        -0.000243,
        0.000129,
        0.00041,
        0.000602,
        0.000702
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        -1e-06,
        -1e-05,
        -3.4e-05,
        -8.4e-05,
        -0.000168,
        -0.000288,
        -0.000443,
        -0.000632,
        -0.000847,
        -0.001074,
        -0.001297,
        -0.001499,
        -0.001667,
        -0.001793,
        -0.001872,
        -0.001903,
        -0.001888,
        -0.001832
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        1e-06,
        1e-06,
        2e-06,
        3e-06,
        4e-06,
        6e-06,
        7e-06,
        8e-06,
        1e-05,
        1.1e-05,
        1.2e-05,
        1.2e-05,
        1.2e-05,
        1.2e-05,
        1.2e-05
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000751,
        0.000935,
        0.001286,
        0.001747,
        0.002261,
        0.002785,
        0.003327,
        0.003928,
        0.003821,
        0.003201,
        0.002286,
        0.001297,
        0.000388,
        -0.000356,
        -0.000902,
        -0.001242,
        -0.001389,
        -0.001372,
        -0.001227,
        -0.000985
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.035591,
        0.072945,
        0.09577,
        0.108786,
        0.115607,
        0.11923,
        0.122134,
        0.126161,
        0.115619,
        0.096542,
        0.073689,
        0.050514,
        0.029326,
        0.011508,
        -0.002265,
        -0.011837,
        -0.017418,
        -0.019452,
        -0.01852,
        -0.015265
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000227,
        -0.000593,
        -0.000931,
        -0.00118,
        -0.001336,
        -0.001417,
        -0.001448,
        -0.001456,
        -0.001356,
        -0.00114,
        -0.00084,
        -0.0005,
        -0.000159,
        0.00015,
        0.000406,
        0.000597,
        0.00072,
        0.000777,
        0.000775,
        0.000723
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        -2e-06,
        -1.3e-05,
        -4.4e-05,
        -0.000108,
        -0.000215,
        -0.000367,
        -0.000566,
        -0.000806,
        -0.001081,
        -0.001371,
        -0.001655,
        -0.001913,
        -0.002128,
        -0.002289,
        -0.00239,
        -0.002429,
        -0.00241,
        -0.002339
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.0,
        15.000107,
        15.000515,
        15.001392,
        15.002846,
        15.004785,
        15.007002,
        15.00934,
        15.011716,
        15.013845,
        15.01535,
        15.016022,
        15.015836,
        15.01489,
        15.013346,
        15.01139,
        15.009197,
        15.006924,
        15.004698,
        15.002615
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000909,
        -0.002371,
        -0.003723,
        -0.004721,
        -0.005345,
        -0.005667,
        -0.005791,
        -0.005822,
        -0.005422,
        -0.00456,
        -0.003361,
        -0.001999,
        -0.000637,
        0.000599,
        0.001622,
        0.002387,
        0.002878,
        0.003106,
        0.003099,
        0.002894
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.000101,
        -9.1e-05,
        -7e-05,
        -3.7e-05,
        3e-06,
        4.9e-05,
        9.8e-05,
        0.000148,
        0.000197,
        0.000244,
        0.000283,
        0.000312,
        0.00033,
        0.000336,
        0.000332,
        0.00032,
        0.000301,
        0.000278,
        0.000253,
        0.000228
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000227,
        0.000593,
        0.000931,
        0.00118,
        0.001336,
        0.001417,
        0.001448,
        0.001456,
        0.001356,
        0.00114,
        0.00084,
        0.0005,
        0.000159,
        -0.00015,
        -0.000406,
        -0.000597,
        -0.00072,
        -0.000777,
        -0.000775,
        -0.000723
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.008157,
        0.009229,
        0.009749,
        0.009663,
        0.009017,
        0.007899,
        0.006411,
        0.00465,
        0.0027,
        0.000729,
        -0.001092,
        -0.002626,
        -0.003788,
        -0.004538,
        -0.004878,
        -0.004839,
        -0.004477,
        -0.00386,
        -0.003058,
        -0.002141
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.007592,
        0.006819,
        0.00583,
        0.004664,
        0.003407,
        0.002142,
        0.000928,
        -0.000204,
        -0.001248,
        -0.002127,
        -0.002753,
        -0.00307,
        -0.003057,
        -0.00273,
        -0.002131,
        -0.00132,
        -0.000362,
        0.000671,
        0.001717,
        0.002719
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.010224,
        0.010233,
        0.009902,
        0.009255,
        0.008365,
        0.007312,
        0.006161,
        0.004954,
        0.003714,
        0.002533,
        0.001507,
        0.000708,
        0.000173,
        -9.7e-05,
        -0.000124,
        4.9e-05,
        0.000371,
        0.000787,
        0.001246,
        0.0017
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.001811,
        0.001644,
        0.001259,
        0.000673,
        -6.3e-05,
        -0.000891,
        -0.001766,
        -0.002658,
        -0.003555,
        -0.00439,
        -0.005095,
        -0.005619,
        -0.005939,
        -0.006053,
        -0.005981,
        -0.005755,
        -0.005414,
        -0.004999,
        -0.004549,
        -0.0041
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.016797,
        0.093015,
        0.166351,
        0.212711,
        0.241839,
        0.261603,
        0.278581,
        0.29787,
        0.306093,
        0.282643,
        0.240929,
        0.19095,
        0.139912,
        0.092739,
        0.052507,
        0.020814,
        -0.001884,
        -0.015944,
        -0.022276,
        -0.022143
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.124005,
        -0.26587,
        -0.374007,
        -0.46665,
        -0.557255,
        -0.656061,
        -0.770691,
        -0.906229,
        -0.953072,
        -0.937493,
        -0.880679,
        -0.799325,
        -0.706225,
        -0.610814,
        -0.519693,
        -0.437115,
        -0.365442,
        -0.305591,
        -0.2574,
        -0.219984
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        80.002144,
        80.010295,
        80.027836,
        80.056918,
        80.095706,
        80.140045,
        80.1868,
        80.234312,
        80.276906,
        80.307003,
        80.320448,
        80.316722,
        80.297795,
        80.266925,
        80.227794,
        80.183946,
        80.13849,
        80.093962,
        80.052303
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        100.000824,
        100.003947,
        100.010634,
        100.021635,
        100.036185,
        100.052676,
        100.069909,
        100.087241,
        100.102553,
        100.113069,
        100.117314,
        100.115151,
        100.10734,
        100.095105,
        100.079826,
        100.062843,
        100.045348,
        100.028324,
        100.012534
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        100.00116,
        100.005682,
        100.015637,
        100.032442,
        100.055423,
        100.082541,
        100.112038,
        100.142789,
        100.171621,
        100.194208,
        100.207701,
        100.211058,
        100.204662,
        100.189833,
        100.168405,
        100.142402,
        100.113813,
        100.084441,
        100.055819
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        4.000162,
        4.000779,
        4.002108,
        4.004316,
        4.007267,
        4.010648,
        4.014223,
        4.017866,
        4.021144,
        4.023475,
        4.024538,
        4.024289,
        4.022878,
        4.020553,
        4.017596,
        4.014277,
        4.010831,
        4.007452,
        4.004284
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        100.000669,
        100.003195,
        100.008592,
        100.017469,
        100.029195,
        100.042457,
        100.056293,
        100.070204,
        100.082465,
        100.090816,
        100.094093,
        100.092235,
        100.0859,
        100.076103,
        100.063962,
        100.050541,
        100.036767,
        100.023397,
        100.011006
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        100.000621,
        100.002985,
        100.008044,
        100.016338,
        100.027276,
        100.039631,
        100.052458,
        100.065225,
        100.076351,
        100.083778,
        100.086388,
        100.084062,
        100.077378,
        100.067294,
        100.054914,
        100.041323,
        100.027494,
        100.014232,
        100.002158
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        2002.527916,
        2006.101227,
        2010.209481,
        2014.939246,
        2020.177314,
        2025.827847,
        2031.830384,
        2038.143764,
        2030.329703,
        2023.494922,
        2017.623222,
        2012.703743,
        2008.706634,
        2005.575896,
        2003.232258,
        2001.580051,
        2000.51482,
        1999.930646,
        1999.725641,
        1999.806254
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": 0.0057,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 8,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0502,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": 0.1409,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 8
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}