{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_uk","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"UK","name":"United Kingdom"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000782,-0.001139,-0.00257,-0.006304,-0.013438,-0.023591,-0.035263,-0.047196,-0.057771,-0.064961,-0.067226,-0.065066,-0.059811,-0.052872,-0.045389,-0.038136,-0.031578,-0.025887,-0.0211,-0.017158]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00036,-0.000678,-0.001396,-0.003201,-0.006818,-0.012251,-0.018799,-0.02572,-0.032182,-0.037011,-0.039189,-0.038716,-0.036193,-0.032404,-0.028062,-0.023695,-0.01965,-0.016088,-0.013065,-0.010567]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.009833,0.016615,0.01732,0.015393,0.012707,0.010176,0.008221,0.006969,0.002336,-0.002951,-0.00739,-0.010424,-0.012044,-0.012495,-0.012095,-0.011149,-0.009909,-0.008561,-0.007233,-0.006007]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001054,0.002927,0.004929,0.006676,0.00801,0.008914,0.009445,0.009697,0.009336,0.008293,0.006704,0.004785,0.002749,0.000772,-0.00103,-0.002588,-0.003875,-0.004891,-0.005658,-0.006207]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.107113,0.221879,0.301537,0.359219,0.404386,0.443972,0.482983,0.524829,0.527575,0.505399,0.468681,0.424757,0.378616,0.33349,0.291333,0.253185,0.219458,0.190152,0.165005,0.143613]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000105,-0.000279,-0.000636,-0.001413,-0.00295,-0.005529,-0.009254,-0.014092,-0.019828,-0.026034,-0.032142,-0.037671,-0.042311,-0.045928,-0.048516,-0.05016,-0.050986,-0.051136,-0.050747,-0.049941]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.037384,-0.099008,-0.174983,-0.262173,-0.358783,-0.463423,-0.574904,-0.692178,-0.555238,-0.441638,-0.347892,-0.271297,-0.209473,-0.160216,-0.12149,-0.091442,-0.068429,-0.051029,0.039608,0.043448]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014773,-0.036788,-0.066391,-0.10557,-0.156439,-0.21758,-0.28484,-0.354727,-0.334055,-0.312934,-0.286345,-0.254621,-0.220272,-0.186065,-0.154141,-0.125791,-0.101601,-0.081511,-0.065188,-0.052139]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006457,0.007492,0.008163,0.008384,0.008148,0.00749,0.006473,0.005163,0.003628,0.001976,0.000328,-0.001217,-0.002591,-0.003756,-0.004701,-0.005434,-0.005974,-0.006347,-0.006582,-0.006707]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003002,0.002621,0.002135,0.001544,0.000865,0.000121,-0.000663,-0.001468,-0.00228,-0.003066,-0.003794,-0.004435,-0.004974,-0.005405,-0.005731,-0.005961,-0.006108,-0.006184,-0.006204,-0.00618]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00156,-0.00171,-0.001904,-0.002144,-0.002426,-0.002737,-0.003068,-0.003409,-0.003753,-0.004085,-0.004388,-0.004648,-0.004856,-0.005011,-0.005114,-0.005169,-0.005182,-0.00516,-0.00511,-0.005038]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.6e-05,-0.000374,-0.001512,-0.004182,-0.008828,-0.015364,-0.023369,-0.032293,-0.041087,-0.048471,-0.053578,-0.056105,-0.056203,-0.0543,-0.050936,-0.046651,-0.0419,-0.03704,-0.032327]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001096,0.003859,0.00807,0.013224,0.018784,0.024294,0.029431,0.033995,0.037461,0.039343,0.039367,0.037495,0.033882,0.02881,0.022627,0.015691,0.00834,0.00087,-0.006479]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003772,-0.007929,-0.01598,-0.031291,-0.056553,-0.089211,-0.124039,-0.157916,-0.185445,-0.200469,-0.199394,-0.185989,-0.165131,-0.141099,-0.116981,-0.094671,-0.075185,-0.058712,-0.045171,-0.03426]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.9e-05,-5.9e-05,-0.000138,-0.000295,-0.000578,-0.001024,-0.001644,-0.002433,-0.003361,-0.004363,-0.00536,-0.00629,-0.007116,-0.007821,-0.008406,-0.008879,-0.009255,-0.009549,-0.009775,-0.009946]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00264,-0.00555,-0.011186,-0.021904,-0.039587,-0.062448,-0.086827,-0.110541,-0.129811,-0.140328,-0.139576,-0.130192,-0.115592,-0.09877,-0.081887,-0.06627,-0.052629,-0.041098,-0.03162,-0.023982]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000161,0.000234,0.000528,0.001294,0.002758,0.004842,0.007238,0.009686,0.011854,0.013325,0.013783,0.013332,0.012247,0.010819,0.00928,0.007791,0.006447,0.005281,0.004302,0.003497]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-3.3e-05,-0.000131,-0.000362,-0.000762,-0.001321,-0.002002,-0.002756,-0.003491,-0.004099,-0.004507,-0.004692,-0.00467,-0.004481,-0.004174,-0.003794,-0.003382,-0.002966,-0.002568]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.009682,0.020083,0.027536,0.033393,0.038646,0.04387,0.049331,0.055174,0.057479,0.057244,0.055105,0.05163,0.047331,0.042631,0.03786,0.03325,0.028953,0.025052,0.021581,0.018542]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006883,0.011631,0.012124,0.010775,0.008895,0.007123,0.005755,0.004878,0.001635,-0.002066,-0.005173,-0.007297,-0.008431,-0.008746,-0.008466,-0.007804,-0.006936,-0.005993,-0.005063,-0.004205]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000469,-0.000682,-0.001535,-0.003764,-0.008023,-0.014086,-0.021055,-0.028178,-0.034485,-0.038764,-0.040096,-0.038785,-0.035629,-0.031472,-0.026997,-0.022666,-0.018754,-0.015364,-0.012515,-0.010173]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000121,0.000274,0.000617,0.001471,0.00326,0.006264,0.010477,0.015697,0.021512,0.027279,0.032243,0.03588,0.037975,0.038575,0.037895,0.036227,0.033876,0.031114,0.028161,0.025188]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.7e-05,-0.000115,-0.00043,-0.001151,-0.002436,-0.004357,-0.006916,-0.010069,-0.013592,-0.017118,-0.02032,-0.022981,-0.024996,-0.026349,-0.027085,-0.027285,-0.027042,-0.026448,-0.025592]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,6e-06,1.5e-05,3.2e-05,5.7e-05,9e-05,0.000131,0.000177,0.000223,0.000265,0.0003,0.000326,0.000344,0.000354,0.000356,0.000353,0.000345,0.000334]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00062,-0.000902,-0.002035,-0.004993,-0.010643,-0.018684,-0.027928,-0.037379,-0.045755,-0.051449,-0.053243,-0.051533,-0.047371,-0.041875,-0.035948,-0.030204,-0.025009,-0.020503,-0.016711,-0.013589]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.032267,-0.06672,-0.090715,-0.108332,-0.122545,-0.135391,-0.148193,-0.161821,-0.163455,-0.157117,-0.145805,-0.131882,-0.117075,-0.102553,-0.08903,-0.076884,-0.066258,-0.057132,-0.049397,-0.042896]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000264,0.000732,0.001232,0.001669,0.002003,0.002228,0.002361,0.002424,0.002334,0.002073,0.001676,0.001196,0.000687,0.000193,-0.000258,-0.000647,-0.000969,-0.001223,-0.001415,-0.001552]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.1e-05,-0.000144,-0.000541,-0.001447,-0.003062,-0.005478,-0.008695,-0.01266,-0.017089,-0.021521,-0.025548,-0.028894,-0.031426,-0.033127,-0.034053,-0.034304,-0.033998,-0.033252,-0.032175]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001054,0.002927,0.004929,0.006676,0.00801,0.008914,0.009445,0.009697,0.009336,0.008293,0.006704,0.004785,0.002749,0.000772,-0.00103,-0.002588,-0.003875,-0.004891,-0.005658,-0.006207]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.001662,-0.001672,-0.001698,-0.001741,-0.001798,-0.001865,-0.001941,-0.002021,-0.002103,-0.002181,-0.002251,-0.002308,-0.002349,-0.002373,-0.00238,-0.002372,-0.002351,-0.00232,-0.002279,-0.002233]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000264,-0.000732,-0.001232,-0.001669,-0.002003,-0.002228,-0.002361,-0.002424,-0.002334,-0.002073,-0.001676,-0.001196,-0.000687,-0.000193,0.000258,0.000647,0.000969,0.001223,0.001415,0.001552]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.012267,-0.014234,-0.015509,-0.01593,-0.015481,-0.014232,-0.012298,-0.00981,-0.006892,-0.003755,-0.000624,0.002312,0.004923,0.007137,0.008932,0.010324,0.01135,0.012059,0.012506,0.012744]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01351,-0.011794,-0.009608,-0.006948,-0.003892,-0.000546,0.002984,0.006607,0.010258,0.013797,0.017072,0.019958,0.022384,0.024323,0.02579,0.026826,0.027485,0.027829,0.027918,0.027809]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.012793,0.014022,0.015611,0.017584,0.019891,0.022445,0.025158,0.027954,0.030776,0.033497,0.035979,0.03811,0.039822,0.041093,0.041934,0.042383,0.042489,0.04231,0.041901,0.041315]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.029917,0.030103,0.030567,0.031331,0.032355,0.033579,0.034936,0.036373,0.037846,0.039264,0.040525,0.041547,0.042281,0.042708,0.042838,0.042697,0.042322,0.041752,0.04103,0.040192]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.034347,-0.095902,-0.147048,-0.181833,-0.207161,-0.228162,-0.248722,-0.271572,-0.27709,-0.261275,-0.233009,-0.198549,-0.162163,-0.126634,-0.093649,-0.064105,-0.038345,-0.016352,0.002126,0.017466]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.113473,0.245808,0.357915,0.465652,0.580413,0.710332,0.861073,1.036381,1.137178,1.184895,1.195718,1.181766,1.151914,1.112513,1.067988,1.021335,0.974524,0.928742,0.884678,0.842673]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0672,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0788,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3547,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_us","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"US","name":"United States"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.00611,-0.026263,-0.064787,-0.123481,-0.194283,-0.268029,-0.341969,-0.416281,-0.477008,-0.510584,-0.516525,-0.4999,-0.467343,-0.425119,-0.37835,-0.33085,-0.285199,-0.242997,-0.205094]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0075,-0.019507,-0.038992,-0.068898,-0.111057,-0.161751,-0.215526,-0.269855,-0.256752,-0.285264,-0.313845,-0.328798,-0.328215,-0.314729,-0.292227,-0.264434,-0.234385,-0.2043,-0.175669,-0.149392]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00021,-0.000996,-0.002824,-0.006037,-0.010816,-0.016881,-0.023718,-0.03098,-0.036618,-0.040529,-0.042415,-0.042315,-0.040557,-0.037593,-0.033879,-0.02981,-0.02569,-0.021735,-0.018081,-0.014803]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.05,0.14,0.262,0.4096,0.57768,0.762144,0.959715,1.167772,0.934218,0.747374,0.597899,0.478319,0.382656,0.306124,0.2449,0.19592,0.156736,0.125389,0.100311,0.080249]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00636,-0.023929,-0.056379,-0.106434,-0.176027,-0.26636,-0.378089,-0.511552,-0.609603,-0.679497,-0.727036,-0.757008,-0.773299,-0.779022,-0.776655,-0.768151,-0.755065,-0.73859,-0.719673,-0.69906]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001006,-0.004418,-0.012239,-0.026703,-0.050016,-0.08334,-0.12675,-0.179973,-0.233668,-0.287321,-0.338821,-0.385964,-0.427071,-0.461148,-0.487836,-0.507274,-0.519942,-0.526534,-0.527843,-0.524686]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.328947,-0.921053,-1.723684,-2.694737,-3.800526,-5.014105,-6.313916,-7.682712,-6.146169,-4.916935,-3.933548,-3.146839,-2.517471,-2.013977,-1.611181,-1.288945,-1.031156,-0.824925,-0.65994,-0.527952]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.015625,-0.063296,-0.165887,-0.335239,-0.575498,-0.859589,-1.157173,-1.458643,-1.623297,-1.759085,-1.819706,-1.801285,-1.718179,-1.590108,-1.435921,-1.271042,-1.106895,-0.951118,-0.80834,-0.680876]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.541114,0.651641,0.727563,0.76955,0.77814,0.753762,0.69676,0.607408,0.485926,0.388741,0.310993,0.248794,0.199035,0.159228,0.127383,0.101906,0.081525,0.06522,0.052176,0.041741]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.43395,0.43466,0.430228,0.419183,0.400346,0.372777,0.335721,0.288577,0.230862,0.184689,0.147752,0.118201,0.094561,0.075649,0.060519,0.048415,0.038732,0.030986,0.024789,0.019831]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.224912,0.223691,0.220226,0.213716,0.203523,0.189135,0.170142,0.146216,0.117093,0.093814,0.075208,0.060342,0.048466,0.038982,0.031411,0.025369,0.02055,0.016707,0.013646,0.011208]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.002084,-0.010448,-0.029571,-0.063268,-0.111516,-0.171174,-0.239053,-0.312933,-0.386467,-0.450491,-0.498283,-0.526767,-0.536005,-0.528178,-0.506596,-0.474926,-0.436673,-0.39489,-0.352051]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7.1e-05,-0.000458,-0.001666,-0.004497,-0.009985,-0.019248,-0.033376,-0.053372,-0.079811,-0.112749,-0.151702,-0.195736,-0.243601,-0.293891,-0.345176,-0.396106,-0.445484,-0.492309,-0.535787]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.075,-0.233211,-0.486656,-0.834242,-1.270788,-1.757722,-2.263377,-2.78255,-2.640524,-2.51658,-2.359145,-2.168735,-1.956128,-1.734277,-1.514611,-1.305728,-1.11331,-0.940407,-0.788166,-0.656323]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000375,-0.001541,-0.003974,-0.008146,-0.014499,-0.023288,-0.034605,-0.048518,-0.06172,-0.074303,-0.086099,-0.096943,-0.106723,-0.115395,-0.122968,-0.129496,-0.135063,-0.139765,-0.143706,-0.146987]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0525,-0.163248,-0.34066,-0.58397,-0.889552,-1.230405,-1.584364,-1.947785,-1.848367,-1.761606,-1.651402,-1.518114,-1.36929,-1.213994,-1.060228,-0.914009,-0.779317,-0.658285,-0.551716,-0.459426]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001182,0.005082,0.012534,0.023884,0.037572,0.051823,0.066108,0.080464,0.092189,0.098662,0.099793,0.096564,0.090259,0.082091,0.07305,0.063871,0.055053,0.046904,0.039587]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000458,-0.00227,-0.006349,-0.013433,-0.023406,-0.03551,-0.049043,-0.063505,-0.077552,-0.089283,-0.097418,-0.101496,-0.101715,-0.098679,-0.093166,-0.085976,-0.077827,-0.069308,-0.060871]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00035,-0.001128,-0.002301,-0.003905,-0.006013,-0.008955,-0.013043,-0.018364,-0.02175,-0.024014,-0.025865,-0.027545,-0.029088,-0.030458,-0.031602,-0.032483,-0.033085,-0.03341,-0.033477,-0.033313]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000147,-0.000697,-0.001977,-0.004226,-0.007572,-0.011817,-0.016602,-0.021686,-0.025633,-0.02837,-0.02969,-0.029621,-0.02839,-0.026315,-0.023715,-0.020867,-0.017983,-0.015215,-0.012657,-0.010362]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.003665,-0.015752,-0.038857,-0.074057,-0.116516,-0.160737,-0.205071,-0.249629,-0.286037,-0.306162,-0.309714,-0.299737,-0.280208,-0.254886,-0.226841,-0.198359,-0.170988,-0.145686,-0.122962]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.000947,0.004828,0.013905,0.030263,0.054325,0.085004,0.121008,0.16133,0.203,0.241541,0.273294,0.29612,0.309334,0.313361,0.309333,0.298748,0.283204,0.264228,0.243172]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000106,-0.000619,-0.002008,-0.004852,-0.009755,-0.017275,-0.027893,-0.041996,-0.058918,-0.077049,-0.094753,-0.11075,-0.124209,-0.134713,-0.142169,-0.146716,-0.148637,-0.148289,-0.146058]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,2e-06,9e-06,3e-05,7.3e-05,0.000146,0.000259,0.000418,0.00063,0.000884,0.001156,0.001421,0.001661,0.001863,0.002021,0.002133,0.002201,0.00223,0.002224,0.002191]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.004705,-0.020222,-0.049886,-0.09508,-0.149598,-0.206382,-0.263316,-0.320537,-0.367296,-0.39315,-0.397724,-0.384923,-0.359854,-0.327341,-0.29133,-0.254754,-0.219603,-0.187108,-0.157922]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.001908,0.006118,0.01238,0.020803,0.031699,0.046854,0.068037,0.095777,0.112862,0.12386,0.1328,0.141123,0.149078,0.156449,0.162919,0.168223,0.172205,0.174809,0.176072,0.176089]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0125,0.035,0.0655,0.1024,0.14442,0.190536,0.239929,0.291943,0.233554,0.186844,0.149475,0.11958,0.095664,0.076531,0.061225,0.04898,0.039184,0.031347,0.025078,0.020062]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000133,-0.000774,-0.00251,-0.006065,-0.012193,-0.021593,-0.034867,-0.052495,-0.073647,-0.096311,-0.118441,-0.138437,-0.155261,-0.168391,-0.177711,-0.183396,-0.185796,-0.185361,-0.182573]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.05,0.14,0.262,0.4096,0.57768,0.762144,0.959715,1.167772,0.934218,0.747374,0.597899,0.478319,0.382656,0.306124,0.2449,0.19592,0.156736,0.125389,0.100311,0.080249]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.075675,0.075258,0.074092,0.071909,0.068495,0.063682,0.057331,0.049333,0.039602,0.031817,0.02559,0.020607,0.016622,0.013433,0.010883,0.008843,0.00721,0.005905,0.004861,0.004025]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0125,-0.035,-0.0655,-0.1024,-0.14442,-0.190536,-0.239929,-0.291943,-0.233554,-0.186844,-0.149475,-0.11958,-0.095664,-0.076531,-0.061225,-0.04898,-0.039184,-0.031347,-0.025078,-0.020062]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.028116,-1.238118,-1.38237,-1.462146,-1.478466,-1.432148,-1.323844,-1.154075,-0.92326,-0.738608,-0.590886,-0.472709,-0.378167,-0.302534,-0.242027,-0.193622,-0.154897,-0.123918,-0.099134,-0.079307]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.952776,-1.955971,-1.936027,-1.886321,-1.801557,-1.677496,-1.510747,-1.298597,-1.038878,-0.831102,-0.664882,-0.531905,-0.425524,-0.340419,-0.272336,-0.217868,-0.174295,-0.139436,-0.111549,-0.089239]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.844275,-1.834268,-1.805849,-1.752471,-1.66889,-1.55091,-1.395168,-1.198972,-0.960167,-0.769274,-0.616709,-0.494805,-0.397424,-0.319655,-0.257571,-0.208027,-0.168508,-0.137,-0.111895,-0.091904]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.362145,-1.354649,-1.333652,-1.294356,-1.232919,-1.14627,-1.031953,-0.888,-0.712839,-0.572711,-0.460611,-0.370933,-0.299192,-0.241802,-0.195892,-0.159166,-0.129788,-0.106288,-0.087489,-0.072452]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.159213,0.300567,0.3976,0.500402,0.624617,0.777995,0.963333,1.181077,1.296242,1.358382,1.384073,1.384617,1.367763,1.338904,1.301878,1.259464,1.213728,1.166171,1.117926,1.069831]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.159213,0.300567,0.3976,0.500402,0.624617,0.777995,0.963333,1.181077,1.296242,1.358382,1.384073,1.384617,1.367763,1.338904,1.301878,1.259464,1.213728,1.166171,1.117926,1.069831]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.5165,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":-0.2543,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-1.8197,"equity_peak_quarter":11},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_de","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"DE","name":"Germany"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000772,-0.001092,-0.002158,-0.004636,-0.009146,-0.015493,-0.022856,-0.030527,-0.037219,-0.041827,-0.043549,-0.042743,-0.040194,-0.036693,-0.032851,-0.029071,-0.025603,-0.022511,-0.019816,-0.017499]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000736,-0.001498,-0.002264,-0.003378,-0.005301,-0.008133,-0.011598,-0.015365,-0.018704,-0.021067,-0.022061,-0.021789,-0.020599,-0.018876,-0.016941,-0.015012,-0.013228,-0.011635,-0.010245,-0.009049]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010154,0.018483,0.021327,0.021916,0.021879,0.021956,0.022485,0.023602,0.02063,0.016236,0.011872,0.008197,0.005389,0.003379,0.002002,0.00108,0.000462,2.3e-05,-0.000316,-0.000609]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048583,0.110597,0.165221,0.216164,0.26636,0.318152,0.373486,0.433949,0.478317,0.510066,0.532168,0.547073,0.556618,0.562123,0.564524,0.564489,0.562533,0.559005,0.554205,0.548377]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000145,-0.000417,-0.000906,-0.001761,-0.003188,-0.005362,-0.008357,-0.012162,-0.016594,-0.021346,-0.026036,-0.03035,-0.034096,-0.037189,-0.039626,-0.041451,-0.04274,-0.043569,-0.044011,-0.044135]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.033346,-0.088315,-0.156085,-0.233859,-0.320035,-0.413374,-0.512814,-0.617422,-0.495272,-0.393941,-0.31032,-0.25805,-0.237365,-0.215604,-0.194621,-0.175414,-0.158338,-0.143318,-0.130044,-0.118115]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.011157,-0.027637,-0.049275,-0.07659,-0.110343,-0.149795,-0.193011,-0.238319,-0.216293,-0.196116,-0.175317,-0.153933,-0.132924,-0.113292,-0.095729,-0.08055,-0.067816,-0.057284,-0.048679,-0.041695]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022503,0.027147,0.031089,0.034063,0.03599,0.036902,0.036877,0.035999,0.034337,0.032116,0.029599,0.027013,0.024515,0.022189,0.020067,0.018139,0.016378,0.014746,0.013206,0.011728]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.026663,0.027267,0.027504,0.02735,0.026826,0.025973,0.024831,0.023427,0.021778,0.019958,0.018061,0.016168,0.014333,0.012588,0.010946,0.009404,0.007955,0.006587,0.005292,0.00406]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014775,0.014517,0.014104,0.013523,0.012787,0.011917,0.010933,0.009851,0.00868,0.007457,0.006229,0.005034,0.003901,0.002843,0.001864,0.000962,0.000131,-0.000637,-0.001349,-0.002011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.5e-05,-0.000176,-0.000665,-0.001794,-0.003771,-0.006611,-0.010189,-0.014308,-0.018553,-0.022401,-0.02547,-0.027583,-0.02874,-0.029051,-0.028679,-0.027803,-0.026579,-0.02514,-0.023588]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001077,0.003942,0.008595,0.014772,0.022155,0.030469,0.039513,0.049172,0.058919,0.068172,0.076464,0.083495,0.089125,0.093336,0.096197,0.097822,0.098352,0.09793,0.096693]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007012,-0.016975,-0.030262,-0.047457,-0.069695,-0.095658,-0.122757,-0.149568,-0.170104,-0.181001,-0.180755,-0.172291,-0.158991,-0.14365,-0.128187,-0.113713,-0.100829,-0.08951,-0.079693,-0.071187]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.5e-05,-0.00012,-0.000271,-0.000509,-0.000857,-0.001335,-0.001949,-0.002697,-0.003547,-0.004452,-0.005356,-0.006218,-0.007013,-0.007731,-0.008372,-0.00894,-0.009445,-0.009892,-0.010291,-0.010646]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004909,-0.011882,-0.021183,-0.03322,-0.048786,-0.06696,-0.08593,-0.104698,-0.119073,-0.126701,-0.126528,-0.120604,-0.111293,-0.100555,-0.089731,-0.079599,-0.070581,-0.062657,-0.055785,-0.049831]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000174,0.000245,0.000481,0.001032,0.002034,0.003446,0.005083,0.006787,0.008271,0.009287,0.009659,0.009469,0.008894,0.008111,0.007255,0.006417,0.00565,0.004968,0.004376,0.003868]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,2e-06,1.5e-05,5.8e-05,0.00016,0.000345,0.000623,0.000992,0.001443,0.001945,0.002453,0.00293,0.003351,0.003705,0.003989,0.004208,0.00437,0.004484,0.004557,0.004596]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.009319,0.021269,0.032281,0.043387,0.055403,0.068677,0.083222,0.099032,0.11179,0.121622,0.128474,0.132576,0.134348,0.134284,0.132858,0.130487,0.127512,0.124186,0.1207,0.11719]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.007108,0.012938,0.014929,0.015341,0.015315,0.015369,0.015739,0.016521,0.014441,0.011365,0.00831,0.005738,0.003773,0.002365,0.001402,0.000756,0.000323,1.6e-05,-0.000221,-0.000426]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000463,-0.000653,-0.001284,-0.002752,-0.005425,-0.009189,-0.013554,-0.018099,-0.022055,-0.024766,-0.025758,-0.025251,-0.023718,-0.021628,-0.019347,-0.017111,-0.015066,-0.013249,-0.01167,-0.010315]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00012,0.000265,0.000546,0.001156,0.002342,0.004275,0.006963,0.010302,0.01401,0.017691,0.020903,0.023348,0.024908,0.025614,0.025583,0.024973,0.023946,0.022646,0.021189,0.019663]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.1e-05,-7.3e-05,-0.000268,-0.000711,-0.001497,-0.002665,-0.004204,-0.006079,-0.008144,-0.010178,-0.011991,-0.013463,-0.014543,-0.015232,-0.015566,-0.015598,-0.015385,-0.014984,-0.014444]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,8e-06,1.7e-05,3.1e-05,4.9e-05,7e-05,9.4e-05,0.000118,0.000139,0.000156,0.000168,0.000176,0.00018,0.00018,0.000178,0.000173,0.000167]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000526,-0.000745,-0.001471,-0.003162,-0.006237,-0.010566,-0.015588,-0.020819,-0.025383,-0.028526,-0.0297,-0.029151,-0.027412,-0.025024,-0.022404,-0.019827,-0.017461,-0.015352,-0.013515,-0.011934]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014783,-0.033415,-0.049858,-0.065299,-0.080701,-0.096752,-0.113934,-0.132628,-0.146177,-0.155505,-0.161518,-0.16517,-0.167233,-0.168248,-0.168561,-0.168375,-0.167815,-0.166927,-0.165748,-0.164306]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000809,0.002268,0.00387,0.005361,0.006654,0.007751,0.008705,0.009588,0.010098,0.010152,0.009816,0.009216,0.008477,0.0077,0.006951,0.006265,0.005655,0.005118,0.004644,0.004218]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.4e-05,-9.1e-05,-0.000332,-0.000881,-0.001856,-0.003303,-0.005212,-0.007536,-0.010096,-0.012618,-0.014865,-0.01669,-0.018028,-0.018883,-0.019296,-0.019336,-0.019072,-0.018575,-0.017905]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001029,0.000978,0.000878,0.000725,0.000524,0.000279,-1e-06,-0.000313,-0.000654,-0.001012,-0.00137,-0.001718,-0.002045,-0.002347,-0.002623,-0.002873,-0.003101,-0.003308,-0.003496,-0.003669]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000809,-0.002268,-0.00387,-0.005361,-0.006654,-0.007751,-0.008705,-0.009588,-0.010098,-0.010152,-0.009816,-0.009216,-0.008477,-0.0077,-0.006951,-0.006265,-0.005655,-0.005118,-0.004644,-0.004218]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.042756,-0.05158,-0.05907,-0.064719,-0.068381,-0.070114,-0.070065,-0.068399,-0.065241,-0.061021,-0.056239,-0.051326,-0.046578,-0.042159,-0.038127,-0.034465,-0.031118,-0.028017,-0.025091,-0.022283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.119985,-0.122701,-0.123769,-0.123073,-0.120716,-0.116879,-0.111738,-0.105423,-0.098,-0.089812,-0.081276,-0.072754,-0.064498,-0.056648,-0.049257,-0.042319,-0.035797,-0.029644,-0.023813,-0.018268]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.121151,-0.119041,-0.115654,-0.110891,-0.104853,-0.097716,-0.089651,-0.080782,-0.071177,-0.061149,-0.051076,-0.041282,-0.031988,-0.023311,-0.015285,-0.00789,-0.001074,0.005224,0.011063,0.016493]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01852,-0.017595,-0.015803,-0.013058,-0.009427,-0.005028,2.1e-05,0.005635,0.011772,0.018207,0.024668,0.030921,0.036808,0.042245,0.04721,0.05172,0.055814,0.059536,0.062932,0.066038]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.03546,0.035164,0.01456,-0.008058,-0.032402,-0.058459,-0.086626,-0.117554,-0.161125,-0.198973,-0.231276,-0.258506,-0.281197,-0.299859,-0.314957,-0.326907,-0.336105,-0.342868,-0.347509,-0.350313]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.054943,0.134526,0.221599,0.322598,0.442388,0.584511,0.751575,0.945501,1.08792,1.189563,1.259204,1.304081,1.329917,1.341146,1.341179,1.33264,1.317598,1.297595,1.273878,1.247437]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0435,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.2187,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2383,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_fr","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"FR","name":"France"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000856,-0.001167,-0.002144,-0.004358,-0.008336,-0.013941,-0.020504,-0.027426,-0.033401,-0.037563,-0.039282,-0.038857,-0.036932,-0.034157,-0.031037,-0.027907,-0.024975,-0.02231,-0.01994,-0.017857]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000738,-0.00146,-0.002146,-0.003091,-0.004691,-0.007051,-0.009963,-0.013162,-0.015957,-0.017933,-0.018802,-0.018664,-0.017799,-0.016509,-0.01504,-0.013558,-0.012166,-0.010901,-0.009775,-0.008781]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00753,0.014171,0.016876,0.017707,0.017861,0.01797,0.018372,0.019223,0.017083,0.013746,0.010327,0.007382,0.005089,0.003421,0.00226,0.001469,0.000927,0.000535,0.000225,-4.7e-05]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048583,0.110596,0.165229,0.216216,0.266515,0.31849,0.374088,0.434873,0.479595,0.511716,0.534172,0.549358,0.559078,0.564642,0.566992,0.566818,0.564645,0.560861,0.555784,0.549676]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000162,-0.000465,-0.00099,-0.001859,-0.00324,-0.005281,-0.008045,-0.011533,-0.01557,-0.019883,-0.024148,-0.028101,-0.031576,-0.034498,-0.036857,-0.038687,-0.040043,-0.040987,-0.041576,-0.041867]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.03873,-0.102572,-0.181282,-0.271612,-0.371699,-0.480107,-0.5956,-0.717096,-0.575227,-0.457537,-0.360416,-0.281064,-0.237365,-0.215604,-0.194621,-0.175414,-0.158338,-0.143318,-0.130044,-0.118115]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.013504,-0.03323,-0.058902,-0.090854,-0.129738,-0.174816,-0.224187,-0.276162,-0.24751,-0.221903,-0.196832,-0.172165,-0.148649,-0.127092,-0.108019,-0.091623,-0.077861,-0.066451,-0.057079,-0.04941]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022503,0.027147,0.031089,0.034063,0.03599,0.036902,0.036877,0.035999,0.034337,0.032116,0.029599,0.027013,0.024515,0.022189,0.020067,0.018139,0.016378,0.014746,0.013206,0.011728]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.026663,0.027267,0.027504,0.02735,0.026826,0.025973,0.024831,0.023427,0.021778,0.019958,0.018061,0.016168,0.014333,0.012588,0.010946,0.009404,0.007955,0.006587,0.005292,0.00406]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014775,0.014517,0.014104,0.013523,0.012787,0.011917,0.010933,0.009851,0.00868,0.007457,0.006229,0.005034,0.003901,0.002843,0.001864,0.000962,0.000131,-0.000637,-0.001349,-0.002011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.6e-05,-0.000118,-0.00046,-0.001262,-0.002692,-0.004786,-0.007477,-0.01064,-0.013994,-0.017167,-0.019873,-0.021958,-0.023384,-0.024197,-0.024482,-0.024346,-0.023885,-0.023188,-0.022327]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.000799,0.002976,0.006591,0.011484,0.017431,0.024226,0.031716,0.039814,0.048131,0.056217,0.063693,0.0703,0.075899,0.080448,0.083972,0.08654,0.088241,0.089169,0.089418]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007247,-0.01718,-0.030162,-0.046479,-0.067032,-0.090799,-0.1157,-0.140574,-0.159241,-0.169258,-0.169511,-0.162525,-0.151209,-0.137971,-0.124471,-0.111682,-0.100115,-0.089813,-0.080734,-0.07273]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.6e-05,-0.000122,-0.000273,-0.000505,-0.00084,-0.001294,-0.001873,-0.002576,-0.003372,-0.004218,-0.005066,-0.005879,-0.006635,-0.007324,-0.007947,-0.008505,-0.009006,-0.009455,-0.009859,-0.010222]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005073,-0.012026,-0.021114,-0.032535,-0.046922,-0.063559,-0.08099,-0.098402,-0.111469,-0.118481,-0.118657,-0.113768,-0.105846,-0.09658,-0.08713,-0.078178,-0.070081,-0.062869,-0.056514,-0.050911]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000203,0.000277,0.000507,0.001028,0.001965,0.003285,0.004831,0.006462,0.007866,0.008842,0.00924,0.009133,0.008675,0.008019,0.007283,0.006547,0.00586,0.005236,0.004682,0.004196]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,7e-06,5.4e-05,0.000213,0.000595,0.001295,0.002359,0.003785,0.005541,0.00752,0.009559,0.011516,0.013294,0.014846,0.016157,0.017237,0.018108,0.018795,0.019323,0.019716]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.00761,0.017321,0.026153,0.034864,0.044055,0.05403,0.064887,0.076693,0.085968,0.092957,0.097783,0.10071,0.102078,0.102241,0.101517,0.100173,0.098422,0.09642,0.094282,0.092091]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005271,0.00992,0.011813,0.012395,0.012503,0.012579,0.012861,0.013456,0.011958,0.009622,0.007229,0.005167,0.003562,0.002394,0.001582,0.001028,0.000649,0.000374,0.000157,-3.3e-05]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000513,-0.000699,-0.00128,-0.002597,-0.004964,-0.0083,-0.012206,-0.016324,-0.019873,-0.022337,-0.023343,-0.023074,-0.021916,-0.020257,-0.018399,-0.016541,-0.014803,-0.013228,-0.011828,-0.0106]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000133,0.000287,0.000562,0.001125,0.002192,0.003915,0.00631,0.009299,0.012616,0.015915,0.018821,0.021079,0.022588,0.023365,0.023502,0.023128,0.022373,0.021357,0.020176,0.018909]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-9e-06,-5.9e-05,-0.000221,-0.000593,-0.001259,-0.00225,-0.003561,-0.005158,-0.006918,-0.008652,-0.010198,-0.011456,-0.012381,-0.012974,-0.013264,-0.013299,-0.013124,-0.01279,-0.012336]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,7e-06,1.5e-05,2.7e-05,4.2e-05,6.1e-05,8.2e-05,0.000103,0.000121,0.000136,0.000147,0.000154,0.000157,0.000158,0.000156,0.000152,0.000146]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000659,-0.000899,-0.001651,-0.003356,-0.006419,-0.010735,-0.015788,-0.021118,-0.025718,-0.028923,-0.030247,-0.02992,-0.028438,-0.026301,-0.023898,-0.021489,-0.019231,-0.017179,-0.015354,-0.01375]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014729,-0.033349,-0.049761,-0.065114,-0.080337,-0.096139,-0.113062,-0.131533,-0.144979,-0.154404,-0.160728,-0.164807,-0.167301,-0.168677,-0.16924,-0.169188,-0.168651,-0.167706,-0.166416,-0.164829]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000809,0.002268,0.00387,0.005361,0.006654,0.007751,0.008705,0.009588,0.010098,0.010152,0.009816,0.009216,0.008477,0.0077,0.006951,0.006265,0.005655,0.005118,0.004644,0.004218]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.1e-05,-7.4e-05,-0.000278,-0.000745,-0.001581,-0.002826,-0.004472,-0.006477,-0.008687,-0.010864,-0.012806,-0.014385,-0.015546,-0.016291,-0.016656,-0.016699,-0.01648,-0.01606,-0.015491]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001029,0.000978,0.000878,0.000725,0.000524,0.000279,-1e-06,-0.000313,-0.000654,-0.001012,-0.00137,-0.001718,-0.002045,-0.002347,-0.002623,-0.002873,-0.003101,-0.003308,-0.003496,-0.003669]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000809,-0.002268,-0.00387,-0.005361,-0.006654,-0.007751,-0.008705,-0.009588,-0.010098,-0.010152,-0.009816,-0.009216,-0.008477,-0.0077,-0.006951,-0.006265,-0.005655,-0.005118,-0.004644,-0.004218]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.042756,-0.05158,-0.05907,-0.064719,-0.068381,-0.070114,-0.070065,-0.068399,-0.065241,-0.061021,-0.056239,-0.051326,-0.046578,-0.042159,-0.038127,-0.034465,-0.031118,-0.028017,-0.025091,-0.022283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.119985,-0.122701,-0.123769,-0.123073,-0.120716,-0.116879,-0.111738,-0.105423,-0.098,-0.089812,-0.081276,-0.072754,-0.064498,-0.056648,-0.049257,-0.042319,-0.035797,-0.029644,-0.023813,-0.018268]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.121151,-0.119041,-0.115654,-0.110891,-0.104853,-0.097716,-0.089651,-0.080782,-0.071177,-0.061149,-0.051076,-0.041282,-0.031988,-0.023311,-0.015285,-0.00789,-0.001074,0.005224,0.011063,0.016493]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01852,-0.017595,-0.015803,-0.013058,-0.009427,-0.005028,2.1e-05,0.005635,0.011772,0.018207,0.024668,0.030921,0.036808,0.042245,0.04721,0.05172,0.055814,0.059536,0.062932,0.066038]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.029882,0.030773,0.015103,-0.002104,-0.020735,-0.040805,-0.062599,-0.086578,-0.12124,-0.151346,-0.177037,-0.198629,-0.216508,-0.231069,-0.242694,-0.25174,-0.258541,-0.263388,-0.266553,-0.268282]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.054943,0.134525,0.221608,0.32265,0.442542,0.58485,0.752178,0.946425,1.089198,1.191213,1.261208,1.306367,1.332377,1.343664,1.343646,1.334968,1.31971,1.299451,1.275458,1.248736]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0393,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1782,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2762,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_it","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"IT","name":"Italy"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000895,-0.001165,-0.001871,-0.003264,-0.005568,-0.008716,-0.01242,-0.016426,-0.019621,-0.021737,-0.022614,-0.022485,-0.02169,-0.020532,-0.019226,-0.017902,-0.016637,-0.015447,-0.014339,-0.013308]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000787,-0.001549,-0.002152,-0.00271,-0.003455,-0.004496,-0.005803,-0.007304,-0.008426,-0.009058,-0.009191,-0.008962,-0.008532,-0.008029,-0.00753,-0.007073,-0.006667,-0.006302,-0.005964,-0.005642]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005903,0.011473,0.014079,0.015062,0.015322,0.015425,0.015723,0.016393,0.014768,0.012126,0.009375,0.006991,0.00514,0.003805,0.002887,0.002266,0.001838,0.001516,0.001242,0.000981]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048583,0.110504,0.164799,0.21507,0.264183,0.314594,0.368422,0.427341,0.470158,0.500606,0.521919,0.536581,0.546352,0.552429,0.555626,0.556507,0.555491,0.552887,0.548952,0.543908]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00017,-0.000484,-0.000996,-0.001763,-0.002855,-0.004334,-0.006229,-0.008548,-0.011145,-0.013846,-0.016475,-0.018903,-0.021057,-0.022908,-0.024459,-0.025731,-0.026752,-0.027548,-0.028147,-0.028569]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.041204,-0.109124,-0.192863,-0.288963,-0.395444,-0.510777,-0.633649,-0.762906,-0.611974,-0.486766,-0.383441,-0.299019,-0.235481,-0.213893,-0.193076,-0.174022,-0.157082,-0.14218,-0.129011,-0.117178]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014429,-0.036035,-0.063329,-0.095672,-0.132843,-0.174248,-0.218973,-0.266218,-0.224836,-0.189529,-0.158838,-0.132274,-0.109633,-0.090695,-0.075138,-0.06255,-0.052494,-0.044503,-0.038168,-0.033132]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022503,0.027147,0.031089,0.034063,0.03599,0.036902,0.036877,0.035999,0.034337,0.032116,0.029599,0.027013,0.024515,0.022189,0.020067,0.018139,0.016378,0.014746,0.013206,0.011728]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.026663,0.027267,0.027504,0.02735,0.026826,0.025973,0.024831,0.023427,0.021778,0.019958,0.018061,0.016168,0.014333,0.012588,0.010946,0.009404,0.007955,0.006587,0.005292,0.00406]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014775,0.014517,0.014104,0.013523,0.012787,0.011917,0.010933,0.009851,0.00868,0.007457,0.006229,0.005034,0.003901,0.002843,0.001864,0.000962,0.000131,-0.000637,-0.001349,-0.002011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-5.9e-05,-0.000225,-0.00061,-0.001294,-0.002289,-0.003566,-0.005067,-0.006657,-0.008167,-0.009477,-0.010529,-0.011319,-0.011872,-0.012224,-0.012417,-0.012481,-0.012445,-0.012326]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.000627,0.002373,0.005339,0.009427,0.014473,0.020315,0.026831,0.033954,0.041383,0.048757,0.055761,0.062172,0.06786,0.072775,0.076921,0.080336,0.083078,0.085206,0.086782]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007358,-0.017125,-0.029099,-0.042524,-0.057465,-0.07347,-0.089854,-0.106394,-0.117297,-0.122216,-0.121244,-0.116196,-0.108883,-0.100695,-0.092525,-0.08485,-0.077888,-0.071597,-0.065909,-0.060711]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.7e-05,-0.000122,-0.000268,-0.000481,-0.000768,-0.001135,-0.001584,-0.002116,-0.002703,-0.003314,-0.00392,-0.004501,-0.005046,-0.005549,-0.006012,-0.006436,-0.006825,-0.007183,-0.007513,-0.007817]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005151,-0.011988,-0.020369,-0.029767,-0.040225,-0.051429,-0.062898,-0.074476,-0.082108,-0.085551,-0.084871,-0.081337,-0.076218,-0.070486,-0.064767,-0.059395,-0.054522,-0.050118,-0.046136,-0.042497]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000196,0.000254,0.000405,0.000703,0.001195,0.001867,0.002657,0.003512,0.004189,0.004631,0.004808,0.004771,0.004595,0.004346,0.004069,0.003791,0.003528,0.003282,0.003054,0.002841]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,2e-06,1.5e-05,5.4e-05,0.000139,0.000276,0.000456,0.000662,0.000876,0.001069,0.001209,0.001287,0.00131,0.001295,0.001256,0.001206,0.001152,0.001099,0.001048,0.001]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.006631,0.015133,0.022994,0.030949,0.039577,0.049133,0.059636,0.071086,0.080405,0.0877,0.09291,0.096135,0.097624,0.0977,0.096703,0.09494,0.092674,0.090111,0.087408,0.08468]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004132,0.008031,0.009855,0.010544,0.010725,0.010797,0.011006,0.011475,0.010338,0.008489,0.006562,0.004894,0.003598,0.002664,0.002021,0.001586,0.001286,0.001061,0.00087,0.000687]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000537,-0.000697,-0.001112,-0.001928,-0.003277,-0.00512,-0.007288,-0.009633,-0.011489,-0.012703,-0.013187,-0.013086,-0.012605,-0.011921,-0.011161,-0.0104,-0.009677,-0.009002,-0.008376,-0.007794]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[9.1e-05,0.000188,0.000334,0.000588,0.001017,0.001667,0.002543,0.003623,0.00478,0.005887,0.006829,0.007542,0.008012,0.008257,0.008314,0.008224,0.008026,0.007753,0.007431,0.007078]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3e-06,-2.2e-05,-8e-05,-0.000215,-0.000454,-0.000809,-0.001275,-0.001839,-0.002454,-0.003046,-0.003557,-0.003954,-0.004225,-0.004378,-0.004426,-0.004389,-0.004288,-0.004139,-0.003958]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,7e-06,1.2e-05,2e-05,2.8e-05,3.8e-05,4.7e-05,5.5e-05,6.1e-05,6.5e-05,6.7e-05,6.8e-05,6.8e-05,6.6e-05,6.4e-05,6.1e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00065,-0.000845,-0.001358,-0.00237,-0.004043,-0.006328,-0.009017,-0.011925,-0.014245,-0.015781,-0.016417,-0.016324,-0.015747,-0.014906,-0.013958,-0.012997,-0.012078,-0.011214,-0.01041,-0.009662]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014772,-0.033359,-0.049615,-0.064585,-0.079114,-0.093952,-0.109769,-0.127091,-0.139361,-0.147787,-0.153491,-0.157372,-0.160036,-0.161856,-0.163042,-0.163703,-0.163905,-0.163681,-0.163063,-0.162082]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000809,0.002268,0.00387,0.005361,0.006654,0.007751,0.008705,0.009588,0.010098,0.010152,0.009816,0.009216,0.008477,0.0077,0.006951,0.006265,0.005655,0.005118,0.004644,0.004218]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-2.6e-05,-9.6e-05,-0.000257,-0.000544,-0.000969,-0.001528,-0.002205,-0.002941,-0.003651,-0.004263,-0.004739,-0.005065,-0.005247,-0.005305,-0.005261,-0.005139,-0.004961,-0.004744]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001029,0.000978,0.000878,0.000725,0.000524,0.000279,-1e-06,-0.000313,-0.000654,-0.001012,-0.00137,-0.001718,-0.002045,-0.002347,-0.002623,-0.002873,-0.003101,-0.003308,-0.003496,-0.003669]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000809,-0.002268,-0.00387,-0.005361,-0.006654,-0.007751,-0.008705,-0.009588,-0.010098,-0.010152,-0.009816,-0.009216,-0.008477,-0.0077,-0.006951,-0.006265,-0.005655,-0.005118,-0.004644,-0.004218]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.042756,-0.05158,-0.05907,-0.064719,-0.068381,-0.070114,-0.070065,-0.068399,-0.065241,-0.061021,-0.056239,-0.051326,-0.046578,-0.042159,-0.038127,-0.034465,-0.031118,-0.028017,-0.025091,-0.022283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.119985,-0.122701,-0.123769,-0.123073,-0.120716,-0.116879,-0.111738,-0.105423,-0.098,-0.089812,-0.081276,-0.072754,-0.064498,-0.056648,-0.049257,-0.042319,-0.035797,-0.029644,-0.023813,-0.018268]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.121151,-0.119041,-0.115654,-0.110891,-0.104853,-0.097716,-0.089651,-0.080782,-0.071177,-0.061149,-0.051076,-0.041282,-0.031988,-0.023311,-0.015285,-0.00789,-0.001074,0.005224,0.011063,0.016493]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01852,-0.017595,-0.015803,-0.013058,-0.009427,-0.005028,2.1e-05,0.005635,0.011772,0.018207,0.024668,0.030921,0.036808,0.042245,0.04721,0.05172,0.055814,0.059536,0.062932,0.066038]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.029602,0.026463,0.007251,-0.011903,-0.031439,-0.051857,-0.07387,-0.098204,-0.132928,-0.161926,-0.186287,-0.206814,-0.224079,-0.238487,-0.250347,-0.259911,-0.267401,-0.273021,-0.276965,-0.279422]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.054943,0.134432,0.221177,0.321503,0.44021,0.580953,0.746511,0.938893,1.079761,1.180103,1.248955,1.29359,1.319651,1.331452,1.332281,1.324658,1.310556,1.291477,1.268626,1.242968]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0226,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1526,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2662,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_jp","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"JP","name":"Japan"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001107,-0.001449,-0.002544,-0.005139,-0.0099,-0.016596,-0.024307,-0.03226,-0.038806,-0.042851,-0.043624,-0.041606,-0.037739,-0.032957,-0.027984,-0.023294,-0.019149,-0.01564,-0.012751,-0.010425]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00042,-0.000661,-0.001125,-0.002278,-0.004609,-0.008118,-0.012337,-0.016778,-0.020723,-0.02346,-0.024396,-0.023624,-0.021606,-0.018894,-0.015959,-0.013132,-0.010613,-0.008486,-0.006754,-0.005385]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.015438,0.023675,0.022051,0.017687,0.01338,0.010128,0.008166,0.007355,0.000945,-0.005755,-0.010735,-0.013644,-0.014771,-0.014576,-0.013508,-0.011937,-0.010148,-0.008336,-0.006627,-0.005099]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001019,0.002668,0.004256,0.00552,0.006417,0.007002,0.007369,0.007609,0.007372,0.006624,0.005498,0.00417,0.002794,0.001487,0.000325,-0.000656,-0.00144,-0.002036,-0.002459,-0.002734]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.13195,0.272729,0.367097,0.43076,0.475427,0.510752,0.544284,0.581023,0.568497,0.526057,0.468482,0.405547,0.343385,0.28558,0.233993,0.189353,0.151649,0.120456,0.095132,0.074901]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00015,-0.000376,-0.000753,-0.001427,-0.002605,-0.004463,-0.007069,-0.010407,-0.014274,-0.018358,-0.022281,-0.025746,-0.028577,-0.03071,-0.032165,-0.033015,-0.033355,-0.033286,-0.0329,-0.032279]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.048599,-0.12871,-0.227478,-0.340825,-0.466418,-0.60245,-0.747375,-0.899831,-0.72181,-0.57413,-0.45226,-0.352687,-0.272315,-0.208281,-0.157937,-0.118874,-0.088958,-0.066337,-0.049444,-0.036974]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01079,-0.024413,-0.043069,-0.068178,-0.101225,-0.141285,-0.185552,-0.23167,-0.221542,-0.209234,-0.191916,-0.1704,-0.146831,-0.123364,-0.10159,-0.082429,-0.066264,-0.053044,-0.042465,-0.034151]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005233,0.006027,0.006521,0.006677,0.006508,0.006055,0.005366,0.004485,0.003452,0.00235,0.001268,0.000273,-0.00059,-0.0013,-0.001854,-0.00226,-0.002536,-0.0027,-0.002775,-0.002781]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00304,0.002845,0.002564,0.002205,0.001786,0.001328,0.000846,0.000352,-0.000147,-0.000627,-0.001064,-0.00144,-0.001744,-0.001974,-0.002136,-0.002236,-0.002284,-0.002289,-0.002263,-0.002213]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000447,0.000387,0.000286,0.000147,-2.2e-05,-0.000214,-0.000419,-0.000632,-0.00085,-0.001062,-0.001254,-0.001418,-0.001547,-0.001641,-0.001702,-0.001733,-0.00174,-0.001725,-0.001696,-0.001655]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.6e-05,-0.000156,-0.000689,-0.001992,-0.004302,-0.007583,-0.011617,-0.016112,-0.020513,-0.024146,-0.026569,-0.027646,-0.02748,-0.026313,-0.024442,-0.022155,-0.01969,-0.01723,-0.014896]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00163,0.005512,0.01113,0.017753,0.024761,0.031739,0.038468,0.044884,0.050343,0.054272,0.056371,0.056608,0.055147,0.052272,0.048316,0.043617,0.038486,0.033188,0.027938]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004629,-0.008386,-0.014537,-0.025087,-0.041749,-0.063075,-0.085959,-0.108548,-0.124823,-0.13227,-0.129299,-0.118787,-0.104056,-0.087874,-0.072153,-0.058,-0.045945,-0.03605,-0.028129,-0.021934]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-2.3e-05,-6.5e-05,-0.000138,-0.000263,-0.000472,-0.000787,-0.001217,-0.00176,-0.002384,-0.003045,-0.003692,-0.004286,-0.004806,-0.005245,-0.005606,-0.005896,-0.006126,-0.006306,-0.006447,-0.006556]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00324,-0.00587,-0.010176,-0.017561,-0.029224,-0.044153,-0.060171,-0.075983,-0.087376,-0.092589,-0.09051,-0.083151,-0.072839,-0.061512,-0.050507,-0.0406,-0.032161,-0.025235,-0.01969,-0.015354]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000221,0.000289,0.000505,0.001017,0.001958,0.003282,0.004806,0.006377,0.007666,0.008456,0.008596,0.008185,0.00741,0.006458,0.005471,0.004544,0.003728,0.003039,0.002474,0.002021]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.6e-05,-7.2e-05,-0.000217,-0.000489,-0.000905,-0.001465,-0.002153,-0.002923,-0.003706,-0.004439,-0.005085,-0.005623,-0.006054,-0.006385,-0.006631,-0.006807,-0.006928,-0.007008]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.011935,0.024788,0.033986,0.041299,0.048059,0.05503,0.062512,0.070628,0.07439,0.074965,0.072975,0.06897,0.063527,0.057205,0.050495,0.043793,0.037387,0.031468,0.026147,0.021471]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010807,0.016572,0.015435,0.012381,0.009366,0.00709,0.005716,0.005148,0.000662,-0.004029,-0.007514,-0.009551,-0.01034,-0.010203,-0.009455,-0.008356,-0.007103,-0.005835,-0.004639,-0.003569]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000664,-0.000867,-0.001515,-0.003052,-0.005875,-0.009847,-0.014418,-0.019131,-0.022997,-0.025368,-0.025789,-0.024555,-0.02223,-0.019373,-0.016414,-0.013632,-0.011183,-0.009117,-0.007423,-0.006064]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000172,0.000362,0.000684,0.001344,0.002609,0.00466,0.007495,0.010997,0.014812,0.018492,0.021555,0.023693,0.024804,0.024951,0.024299,0.02305,0.021408,0.01955,0.017617,0.015709]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-9e-06,-7e-05,-0.000272,-0.000746,-0.001601,-0.002882,-0.004585,-0.006675,-0.008989,-0.011274,-0.013311,-0.014959,-0.016159,-0.016912,-0.01726,-0.017264,-0.016994,-0.016514,-0.015883]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,2e-06,5e-06,1e-05,1.9e-05,3e-05,4.4e-05,5.9e-05,7.4e-05,8.7e-05,9.8e-05,0.000105,0.00011,0.000113,0.000113,0.000111,0.000108,0.000104]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000767,-0.001004,-0.001763,-0.003561,-0.00686,-0.011501,-0.016845,-0.022356,-0.026893,-0.029696,-0.030231,-0.028833,-0.026153,-0.022839,-0.019393,-0.016143,-0.01327,-0.010838,-0.008837,-0.007225]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.039884,-0.08215,-0.110526,-0.129813,-0.143624,-0.15483,-0.165565,-0.177218,-0.17366,-0.160578,-0.142432,-0.122405,-0.1026,-0.084276,-0.068088,-0.054274,-0.042807,-0.033507,-0.026119,-0.020354]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000255,0.000667,0.001064,0.00138,0.001604,0.001751,0.001842,0.001902,0.001843,0.001656,0.001375,0.001042,0.000699,0.000372,8.1e-05,-0.000164,-0.00036,-0.000509,-0.000615,-0.000684]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.2e-05,-8.9e-05,-0.000347,-0.000952,-0.002044,-0.003679,-0.005853,-0.008521,-0.011475,-0.014393,-0.016993,-0.019096,-0.020628,-0.02159,-0.022034,-0.02204,-0.021694,-0.021082,-0.020276]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001019,0.002668,0.004256,0.00552,0.006417,0.007002,0.007369,0.007609,0.007372,0.006624,0.005498,0.00417,0.002794,0.001487,0.000325,-0.000656,-0.00144,-0.002036,-0.002459,-0.002734]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000232,-0.000242,-0.000266,-0.000302,-0.00035,-0.000404,-0.000464,-0.000526,-0.000591,-0.000653,-0.000709,-0.000756,-0.000791,-0.000816,-0.000829,-0.000832,-0.000827,-0.000816,-0.0008,-0.00078]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000255,-0.000667,-0.001064,-0.00138,-0.001604,-0.001751,-0.001842,-0.001902,-0.001843,-0.001656,-0.001375,-0.001042,-0.000699,-0.000372,-8.1e-05,0.000164,0.00036,0.000509,0.000615,0.000684]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.009942,-0.011451,-0.01239,-0.012685,-0.012365,-0.011504,-0.010195,-0.008521,-0.006559,-0.004466,-0.002409,-0.000519,0.001121,0.00247,0.003522,0.004295,0.004818,0.005131,0.005273,0.005283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.013682,-0.012803,-0.01154,-0.009924,-0.008038,-0.005974,-0.003806,-0.001585,0.00066,0.002823,0.00479,0.006479,0.007847,0.008885,0.009611,0.010061,0.010276,0.010302,0.010183,0.009958]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003662,-0.00317,-0.002348,-0.001208,0.000183,0.001751,0.003432,0.005181,0.006973,0.008709,0.010285,0.011625,0.012686,0.013459,0.013958,0.014214,0.014264,0.014148,0.013905,0.013572]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.004179,0.004356,0.00478,0.005441,0.006291,0.007275,0.008346,0.00947,0.010631,0.011754,0.012765,0.013606,0.014246,0.01468,0.014917,0.014979,0.014893,0.014689,0.014395,0.014037]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.019892,-0.105266,-0.187782,-0.24308,-0.280666,-0.308813,-0.334556,-0.362908,-0.38013,-0.366352,-0.335556,-0.297027,-0.256683,-0.218103,-0.183272,-0.153112,-0.127832,-0.107227,-0.090861,-0.078149]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.138309,0.296657,0.423476,0.537194,0.651454,0.777112,0.922373,1.092575,1.1781,1.205553,1.195518,1.162556,1.116684,1.064602,1.010648,0.957504,0.906714,0.859046,0.814805,0.773961]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0436,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0887,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2317,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_ca","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"CA","name":"Canada"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000847,-0.00212,-0.006541,-0.015788,-0.03088,-0.050494,-0.072351,-0.095066,-0.117058,-0.135225,-0.14656,-0.150724,-0.14863,-0.141634,-0.131112,-0.118291,-0.104187,-0.089605,-0.075162,-0.061315]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005241,-0.00962,-0.011124,-0.013624,-0.019982,-0.030368,-0.043433,-0.057876,-0.069672,-0.078903,-0.085181,-0.088363,-0.088542,-0.086035,-0.081307,-0.074891,-0.067317,-0.05907,-0.050564,-0.042136]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.052801,0.078003,0.065129,0.051039,0.044615,0.045224,0.050176,0.057132,0.034031,0.010132,-0.006905,-0.017025,-0.022122,-0.024079,-0.024276,-0.023595,-0.022549,-0.021411,-0.02031,-0.019295]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.034215,0.08201,0.115324,0.132889,0.140994,0.145559,0.150245,0.156664,0.145308,0.117352,0.080295,0.041208,0.004833,-0.026327,-0.051372,-0.070383,-0.083958,-0.092908,-0.098083,-0.100282]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.228575,0.475273,0.624548,0.738953,0.855988,0.993216,1.155793,1.343269,1.420856,1.433771,1.408654,1.361239,1.300969,1.233671,1.163053,1.091551,1.020799,0.951894,0.885571,0.822302]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000751,-0.002523,-0.005357,-0.009459,-0.015267,-0.023153,-0.033276,-0.045658,-0.059762,-0.07474,-0.08958,-0.103416,-0.115623,-0.125811,-0.133788,-0.139512,-0.143052,-0.144547,-0.14419,-0.142198]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.203661,-0.488153,-0.686455,-0.791005,-0.839249,-0.86642,-0.894318,-0.932523,-0.864929,-0.698523,-0.477948,-0.245285,-0.180795,0.156706,0.305784,0.418948,0.49975,0.553022,0.583829,0.596915]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.015021,-0.039453,-0.076982,-0.130887,-0.203196,-0.289995,-0.384957,-0.48413,-0.494259,-0.502452,-0.499713,-0.484237,-0.457587,-0.422526,-0.38193,-0.338344,-0.293844,-0.250029,-0.208086,-0.168854]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.119737,0.133624,0.138042,0.133663,0.122203,0.105183,0.083697,0.058495,0.030114,0.001456,-0.024826,-0.047124,-0.06481,-0.077939,-0.086953,-0.092466,-0.095128,-0.095554,-0.094286,-0.091779]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.041179,0.034458,0.025436,0.014896,0.003668,-0.00775,-0.019166,-0.03058,-0.042078,-0.052776,-0.06185,-0.068855,-0.073697,-0.076524,-0.077604,-0.077254,-0.075783,-0.073472,-0.07056,-0.067244]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.011251,-0.012766,-0.015414,-0.018836,-0.022643,-0.026601,-0.030627,-0.034726,-0.038948,-0.04285,-0.046023,-0.048243,-0.049463,-0.049754,-0.049251,-0.048111,-0.046485,-0.044514,-0.042314,-0.039982]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000311,-0.001714,-0.005288,-0.012149,-0.022751,-0.036773,-0.05357,-0.072453,-0.091939,-0.109983,-0.12491,-0.135697,-0.141951,-0.143763,-0.14155,-0.13592,-0.12756,-0.117168,-0.105404]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.005723,0.018951,0.036964,0.057241,0.078407,0.100014,0.122114,0.144948,0.16546,0.181048,0.190354,0.193094,0.189686,0.180923,0.167751,0.151135,0.131978,0.111091,0.089174]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.053695,-0.130216,-0.195697,-0.252721,-0.312915,-0.379116,-0.449488,-0.523472,-0.567184,-0.572196,-0.541452,-0.487274,-0.420594,-0.349391,-0.278887,-0.21223,-0.151163,-0.096501,-0.048507,-0.007094]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000268,-0.00092,-0.001898,-0.003162,-0.004726,-0.006622,-0.008869,-0.011487,-0.014323,-0.017184,-0.019891,-0.022327,-0.02443,-0.026177,-0.027571,-0.028633,-0.029388,-0.029871,-0.030114,-0.030149]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.037587,-0.091151,-0.136988,-0.176905,-0.21904,-0.265381,-0.314642,-0.36643,-0.397029,-0.400537,-0.379016,-0.341092,-0.294416,-0.244574,-0.195221,-0.148561,-0.105814,-0.067551,-0.033955,-0.004966]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000169,0.000383,0.001105,0.002592,0.004988,0.008053,0.011411,0.014858,0.01812,0.020705,0.022177,0.022559,0.022041,0.020848,0.019186,0.017223,0.015096,0.012908,0.01074,0.008653]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.7e-05,-0.000151,-0.000482,-0.001149,-0.002239,-0.003777,-0.005756,-0.008147,-0.010844,-0.013668,-0.016437,-0.019002,-0.021255,-0.023128,-0.024585,-0.02562,-0.026243,-0.026483,-0.026374]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.037799,0.078301,0.102085,0.119016,0.134919,0.152755,0.1738,0.198398,0.204485,0.200221,0.191013,0.180118,0.169241,0.159111,0.149917,0.141589,0.133957,0.126842,0.120095,0.113606]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.036961,0.054602,0.04559,0.035728,0.031231,0.031657,0.035123,0.039993,0.023821,0.007093,-0.004833,-0.011918,-0.015485,-0.016855,-0.016993,-0.016516,-0.015784,-0.014988,-0.014217,-0.013507]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000508,-0.001271,-0.00392,-0.009461,-0.018504,-0.030256,-0.043349,-0.056957,-0.070129,-0.081008,-0.087793,-0.090282,-0.089023,-0.084829,-0.078525,-0.070844,-0.062396,-0.053661,-0.045011,-0.036716]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000131,0.000434,0.001361,0.003536,0.007615,0.013918,0.022349,0.032615,0.044236,0.056348,0.067796,0.077599,0.085117,0.090047,0.09236,0.092223,0.089927,0.08583,0.080315,0.073755]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.4e-05,-0.000247,-0.000779,-0.001845,-0.00358,-0.006014,-0.009127,-0.012876,-0.017043,-0.021262,-0.025195,-0.028593,-0.031316,-0.033312,-0.034597,-0.035231,-0.035297,-0.034887,-0.034094]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,1e-06,3e-06,1e-05,2.3e-05,4.4e-05,7.5e-05,0.000113,0.00016,0.000211,0.000264,0.000312,0.000355,0.000388,0.000413,0.000429,0.000437,0.000438,0.000433,0.000423]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000587,-0.001469,-0.004533,-0.010941,-0.0214,-0.034992,-0.050139,-0.065881,-0.081121,-0.093711,-0.101566,-0.104452,-0.103001,-0.098152,-0.090861,-0.081975,-0.072201,-0.062096,-0.052088,-0.042491]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.068725,-0.142924,-0.188348,-0.223993,-0.261237,-0.305136,-0.356906,-0.416227,-0.442416,-0.4486,-0.442383,-0.428507,-0.409974,-0.388731,-0.366072,-0.342877,-0.319755,-0.297129,-0.275291,-0.25444]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008554,0.020502,0.028831,0.033222,0.035248,0.03639,0.037561,0.039166,0.036327,0.029338,0.020074,0.010302,0.001208,-0.006582,-0.012843,-0.017596,-0.02099,-0.023227,-0.024521,-0.02507]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.6e-05,-0.000311,-0.000982,-0.002325,-0.00451,-0.007577,-0.011499,-0.016222,-0.021471,-0.026787,-0.031742,-0.036023,-0.039453,-0.041967,-0.043587,-0.044385,-0.044468,-0.043952,-0.042953]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.034215,0.08201,0.115324,0.132889,0.140994,0.145559,0.150245,0.156664,0.145308,0.117352,0.080295,0.041208,0.004833,-0.026327,-0.051372,-0.070383,-0.083958,-0.092908,-0.098083,-0.100282]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.005659,-0.005904,-0.006555,-0.007491,-0.008583,-0.009751,-0.010967,-0.012232,-0.013559,-0.0148,-0.015815,-0.016527,-0.016919,-0.01701,-0.016844,-0.016469,-0.015933,-0.015282,-0.014551,-0.013772]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.008554,-0.020502,-0.028831,-0.033222,-0.035248,-0.03639,-0.037561,-0.039166,-0.036327,-0.029338,-0.020074,-0.010302,-0.001208,0.006582,0.012843,0.017596,0.02099,0.023227,0.024521,0.02507]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.227501,-0.253886,-0.26228,-0.25396,-0.232186,-0.199848,-0.159025,-0.111141,-0.057217,-0.002766,0.04717,0.089535,0.123139,0.148085,0.165212,0.175685,0.180743,0.181552,0.179143,0.17438]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.185306,-0.155062,-0.114461,-0.067033,-0.016505,0.034877,0.086249,0.137611,0.189352,0.237492,0.278326,0.309846,0.331638,0.344357,0.34922,0.347644,0.341025,0.330625,0.317522,0.302599]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.092255,0.104678,0.126391,0.154455,0.185671,0.218131,0.25114,0.284757,0.319371,0.35137,0.377388,0.39559,0.405593,0.407984,0.403862,0.394507,0.381178,0.365012,0.346974,0.327849]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.101867,0.106277,0.117985,0.134838,0.154486,0.17552,0.19741,0.220174,0.244062,0.266396,0.284668,0.297492,0.304538,0.306186,0.303189,0.296436,0.286803,0.275077,0.261926,0.247895]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.17431,-0.391772,-0.541306,-0.668772,-0.809647,-0.980506,-1.186165,-1.426158,-1.559579,-1.618235,-1.629383,-1.609777,-1.570051,-1.517218,-1.456073,-1.389991,-1.321408,-1.252069,-1.183242,-1.115839]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.234935,0.499202,0.680927,0.845386,1.032015,1.259576,1.533883,1.85482,2.03046,2.113268,2.135691,2.118247,2.074268,2.012693,1.939708,1.859702,1.775864,1.690484,1.605244,1.521362]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.1507,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.4644,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.5025,"equity_peak_quarter":10},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_cn","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"CN","name":"China"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00112,-0.001464,-0.002421,-0.004398,-0.007732,-0.012264,-0.017464,-0.022882,-0.027045,-0.029449,-0.029746,-0.028243,-0.025482,-0.022001,-0.018231,-0.014478,-0.01094,-0.007731,-0.004909,-0.002495]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000667,-0.00091,-0.001149,-0.001877,-0.003425,-0.005771,-0.008598,-0.011581,-0.014024,-0.015639,-0.016109,-0.015486,-0.014028,-0.012048,-0.009821,-0.007553,-0.005383,-0.003396,-0.001636,-0.000125]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014667,0.014935,0.009224,0.005346,0.002872,0.001339,0.000453,2.2e-05,-0.005823,-0.009471,-0.011201,-0.011468,-0.010724,-0.009359,-0.007687,-0.005936,-0.004266,-0.002771,-0.0015,-0.000468]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00352,0.00718,0.009195,0.009812,0.009334,0.008001,0.00604,0.003661,-0.00032,-0.005229,-0.010273,-0.014818,-0.018451,-0.020971,-0.022343,-0.022647,-0.022034,-0.020689,-0.018803,-0.016556]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.203708,0.263895,0.250474,0.245479,0.247872,0.257198,0.272975,0.294562,0.241677,0.197066,0.159378,0.127743,0.101425,0.079714,0.061915,0.047376,0.035508,0.025806,0.017846,0.011285]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000258,-0.000642,-0.001192,-0.002017,-0.003273,-0.00509,-0.007512,-0.010519,-0.013839,-0.017158,-0.020156,-0.022597,-0.024354,-0.025397,-0.025763,-0.025531,-0.024799,-0.023671,-0.022247,-0.020618]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0176,-0.040169,-0.070993,-0.106367,-0.145563,-0.188018,-0.233247,-0.280826,-0.225268,-0.179179,-0.141145,-0.110069,0.092256,0.104855,0.111713,0.113233,0.110171,0.103446,0.094014,0.082781]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.011964,-0.028526,-0.050046,-0.076559,-0.108301,-0.144584,-0.184003,-0.225356,-0.198699,-0.174364,-0.150753,-0.12783,-0.106123,-0.086185,-0.068387,-0.052882,-0.039652,-0.02856,-0.019412,-0.01199]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.007093,0.006613,0.005062,0.002628,-0.000451,-0.003924,-0.007545,-0.011093,-0.014382,-0.017096,-0.019028,-0.020094,-0.020312,-0.019769,-0.018598,-0.016946,-0.014964,-0.012789,-0.01054,-0.008314]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00682,-0.007701,-0.00864,-0.009556,-0.010386,-0.011085,-0.01162,-0.011972,-0.012132,-0.012034,-0.011641,-0.010958,-0.010019,-0.008877,-0.007597,-0.00624,-0.004866,-0.003524,-0.002253,-0.001084]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.003428,-0.00341,-0.00349,-0.003625,-0.003781,-0.003931,-0.004053,-0.004131,-0.004155,-0.004084,-0.003895,-0.003584,-0.003164,-0.002658,-0.002091,-0.001495,-0.000894,-0.000311,0.000235,0.000731]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-6.4e-05,-0.000253,-0.000696,-0.00148,-0.002616,-0.004057,-0.005723,-0.007448,-0.009014,-0.010253,-0.011067,-0.011433,-0.011373,-0.010942,-0.010208,-0.009245,-0.008122,-0.006901]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001626,0.004623,0.008083,0.011417,0.01427,0.016439,0.017831,0.018427,0.017639,0.015257,0.011367,0.006247,0.000273,-0.006146,-0.012622,-0.018814,-0.024451,-0.02933,-0.033322]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.008415,-0.0152,-0.021471,-0.028857,-0.038676,-0.050356,-0.062407,-0.07398,-0.078158,-0.075546,-0.066552,-0.05366,-0.039235,-0.025063,-0.012281,-0.001484,0.007126,0.0136,0.018126,0.020959]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-4.2e-05,-0.000118,-0.000225,-0.00037,-0.000563,-0.000815,-0.001127,-0.001497,-0.001888,-0.002265,-0.002598,-0.002866,-0.003063,-0.003188,-0.003249,-0.003257,-0.003221,-0.003153,-0.003062,-0.002958]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00589,-0.01064,-0.01503,-0.0202,-0.027073,-0.035249,-0.043685,-0.051786,-0.054711,-0.052882,-0.046586,-0.037562,-0.027464,-0.017544,-0.008597,-0.001039,0.004988,0.00952,0.012688,0.014672]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000196,0.000255,0.000418,0.000754,0.001321,0.00209,0.002971,0.003889,0.004586,0.004978,0.005008,0.004734,0.00425,0.003649,0.003003,0.002364,0.001766,0.001225,0.000752,0.000349]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-5.8e-05,-0.000232,-0.000649,-0.00141,-0.002554,-0.00407,-0.005914,-0.007956,-0.010007,-0.011898,-0.013515,-0.014794,-0.015715,-0.016289,-0.016542,-0.016512,-0.016243,-0.015776]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.018394,0.02392,0.023116,0.023558,0.025298,0.028234,0.032119,0.036721,0.034644,0.033036,0.031398,0.029474,0.027206,0.024654,0.021926,0.019141,0.016405,0.013798,0.011379,0.009184]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010267,0.010454,0.006457,0.003742,0.002011,0.000937,0.000317,1.5e-05,-0.004076,-0.00663,-0.007841,-0.008028,-0.007507,-0.006551,-0.005381,-0.004155,-0.002986,-0.001939,-0.00105,-0.000328]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000672,-0.000876,-0.001443,-0.002612,-0.004584,-0.007262,-0.010334,-0.013534,-0.015978,-0.017372,-0.017513,-0.016591,-0.014931,-0.012853,-0.010613,-0.008391,-0.006302,-0.004411,-0.002752,-0.001336]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[7.5e-05,0.000152,0.000271,0.000489,0.000869,0.001446,0.002207,0.003116,0.004047,0.004874,0.005487,0.005824,0.005881,0.005687,0.005296,0.004764,0.004145,0.003487,0.002826,0.002191]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3e-06,-2.2e-05,-8.5e-05,-0.000233,-0.000501,-0.000899,-0.001422,-0.002055,-0.002743,-0.00341,-0.00399,-0.004444,-0.004758,-0.004937,-0.004996,-0.004957,-0.00484,-0.004666,-0.004454]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,4e-06,7e-06,1.1e-05,1.6e-05,2.2e-05,2.7e-05,3.2e-05,3.6e-05,3.8e-05,4e-05,4e-05,4e-05,3.9e-05,3.7e-05,3.6e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000653,-0.000853,-0.001411,-0.002564,-0.004508,-0.00715,-0.010181,-0.01334,-0.015767,-0.017169,-0.017342,-0.016465,-0.014856,-0.012826,-0.010628,-0.008441,-0.006378,-0.004507,-0.002862,-0.001455]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.061482,-0.079579,-0.075586,-0.074114,-0.074864,-0.077691,-0.082421,-0.088832,-0.072424,-0.058072,-0.045541,-0.034819,-0.025875,-0.01859,-0.012777,-0.008209,-0.004659,-0.001918,0.000193,0.001818]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00088,0.001795,0.002299,0.002453,0.002333,0.002,0.00151,0.000915,-8e-05,-0.001307,-0.002568,-0.003705,-0.004613,-0.005243,-0.005586,-0.005662,-0.005509,-0.005172,-0.004701,-0.004139]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-2.8e-05,-0.00011,-0.000302,-0.00065,-0.001166,-0.001844,-0.002664,-0.003556,-0.00442,-0.005172,-0.005761,-0.006168,-0.0064,-0.006477,-0.006425,-0.006274,-0.006049,-0.005773]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00352,0.00718,0.009195,0.009812,0.009334,0.008001,0.00604,0.003661,-0.00032,-0.005229,-0.010273,-0.014818,-0.018451,-0.020971,-0.022343,-0.022647,-0.022034,-0.020689,-0.018803,-0.016556]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000707,-0.000737,-0.000797,-0.000874,-0.000956,-0.001034,-0.001101,-0.001151,-0.001181,-0.001178,-0.001135,-0.001049,-0.000925,-0.000771,-0.000595,-0.000409,-0.00022,-3.5e-05,0.000137,0.000294]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00088,-0.001795,-0.002299,-0.002453,-0.002333,-0.002,-0.00151,-0.000915,8e-05,0.001307,0.002568,0.003705,0.004613,0.005243,0.005586,0.005662,0.005509,0.005172,0.004701,0.004139]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.013476,-0.012564,-0.009617,-0.004994,0.000856,0.007455,0.014336,0.021077,0.027325,0.032482,0.036154,0.038179,0.038592,0.037561,0.035335,0.032198,0.028432,0.024299,0.020025,0.015797]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.030688,0.034655,0.03888,0.043003,0.046739,0.049881,0.052288,0.053872,0.054596,0.054152,0.052385,0.04931,0.045083,0.039947,0.034184,0.02808,0.021896,0.015856,0.010139,0.004878]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.028107,0.027965,0.028617,0.029726,0.031007,0.032235,0.033235,0.033875,0.03407,0.033488,0.031939,0.029392,0.025948,0.021792,0.01715,0.012256,0.007327,0.00255,-0.001928,-0.005997]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.012727,0.013264,0.014348,0.015733,0.017209,0.018611,0.019812,0.020718,0.021264,0.021213,0.020423,0.018876,0.016646,0.013871,0.010717,0.007357,0.003952,0.000639,-0.002472,-0.005298]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.114751,-0.099452,-0.044649,-0.009933,0.012243,0.02644,0.035322,0.040483,0.087651,0.115304,0.129952,0.135863,0.135919,0.132121,0.125898,0.118279,0.110011,0.10162,0.093472,0.085806]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.210067,0.287824,0.306853,0.351913,0.423899,0.523558,0.651064,0.806114,0.85128,0.876562,0.886415,0.884751,0.874724,0.858736,0.83857,0.815526,0.790574,0.764396,0.737519,0.710345]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0297,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0109,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2254,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_in","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"IN","name":"India"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001725,-0.002386,-0.004175,-0.007407,-0.012108,-0.017922,-0.024304,-0.030799,-0.035287,-0.037588,-0.037529,-0.035275,-0.031173,-0.025663,-0.019227,-0.012349,-0.005484,0.000977,0.006716,0.011509]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002373,-0.00295,-0.002588,-0.00293,-0.004335,-0.006577,-0.00927,-0.012081,-0.013458,-0.01423,-0.014427,-0.013917,-0.012622,-0.010572,-0.007893,-0.004774,-0.001441,0.001883,0.004991,0.007715]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.021759,0.019922,0.01054,0.006445,0.004676,0.003706,0.002976,0.002345,-0.007799,-0.013018,-0.015169,-0.015457,-0.014599,-0.013038,-0.01108,-0.008942,-0.006786,-0.00473,-0.002852,-0.001204]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016319,0.029066,0.031902,0.029975,0.026057,0.021248,0.016014,0.01065,-0.001802,-0.016447,-0.029858,-0.040207,-0.046781,-0.049565,-0.048958,-0.045581,-0.04014,-0.033337,-0.025812,-0.018112]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.197805,0.257062,0.246751,0.255211,0.273576,0.297538,0.325083,0.355204,0.299992,0.255513,0.217217,0.182821,0.151272,0.122143,0.095313,0.070809,0.048715,0.029119,0.012077,-0.0024]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000671,-0.001711,-0.003025,-0.004697,-0.006878,-0.009681,-0.013138,-0.017217,-0.021386,-0.025247,-0.028488,-0.030891,-0.032325,-0.032737,-0.03214,-0.030606,-0.028256,-0.025244,-0.021745,-0.017944]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.081595,-0.145332,-0.159512,-0.149877,-0.144538,-0.186693,-0.231604,-0.278849,-0.223682,-0.177917,0.149288,0.201034,0.233904,0.247823,0.244791,0.227906,0.200699,0.166683,0.129059,0.090558]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.02068,-0.048866,-0.086222,-0.132239,-0.186204,-0.246564,-0.311358,-0.378923,-0.33211,-0.289416,-0.248912,-0.209909,-0.172318,-0.136377,-0.102498,-0.07118,-0.04293,-0.018186,0.002726,0.019634]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022654,0.020389,0.0147,0.00698,-0.001793,-0.010898,-0.019749,-0.027871,-0.0349,-0.039692,-0.041803,-0.041297,-0.038536,-0.034022,-0.028304,-0.021908,-0.015297,-0.008853,-0.002872,0.002441]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.010768,-0.012118,-0.013762,-0.015247,-0.01638,-0.017113,-0.017449,-0.017415,-0.017047,-0.016028,-0.014278,-0.011884,-0.00902,-0.005889,-0.002688,0.000408,0.003258,0.005759,0.007848,0.009492]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-4.1e-05,-0.000332,-0.000968,-0.001696,-0.002396,-0.003014,-0.003525,-0.003917,-0.004184,-0.004148,-0.003752,-0.003025,-0.002043,-0.000899,0.000312,0.001507,0.002617,0.003591,0.004395,0.005011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.7e-05,-0.000155,-0.000487,-0.00112,-0.002101,-0.003414,-0.004995,-0.006748,-0.008527,-0.010141,-0.011414,-0.012203,-0.012412,-0.011999,-0.010972,-0.009387,-0.007333,-0.004926,-0.002298]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.002475,0.006764,0.011414,0.015784,0.019591,0.022688,0.024992,0.026457,0.025993,0.023299,0.018534,0.0121,0.004514,-0.00367,-0.011924,-0.019771,-0.026815,-0.032749,-0.037362]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.029309,-0.05093,-0.061274,-0.068782,-0.077379,-0.087348,-0.0977,-0.107707,-0.099334,-0.0814,-0.058605,-0.034508,-0.011321,0.009619,0.027539,0.042025,0.052913,0.060228,0.064131,0.064908]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000147,-0.000401,-0.000708,-0.001051,-0.001438,-0.001875,-0.002364,-0.002902,-0.003399,-0.003806,-0.004099,-0.004271,-0.004328,-0.00428,-0.004142,-0.003932,-0.003668,-0.003366,-0.003046,-0.002721]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.020516,-0.035651,-0.042892,-0.048147,-0.054165,-0.061144,-0.06839,-0.075395,-0.069534,-0.05698,-0.041024,-0.024156,-0.007925,0.006734,0.019277,0.029418,0.037039,0.042159,0.044892,0.045436]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000291,0.000401,0.000696,0.001226,0.001992,0.002934,0.003965,0.00501,0.005714,0.006052,0.006003,0.005598,0.004898,0.003974,0.002906,0.001771,0.000644,-0.000413,-0.001347,-0.002122]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3.5e-05,-0.000202,-0.000642,-0.001498,-0.002858,-0.00473,-0.00706,-0.009748,-0.012616,-0.015422,-0.017919,-0.019891,-0.021171,-0.021652,-0.021288,-0.020094,-0.01814,-0.015535,-0.01242]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.021872,0.028543,0.027947,0.030018,0.033927,0.039102,0.045072,0.051519,0.048533,0.046348,0.044036,0.04114,0.037558,0.033398,0.028864,0.024184,0.019569,0.015192,0.011184,0.007629]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.015231,0.013945,0.007378,0.004511,0.003273,0.002594,0.002083,0.001642,-0.005459,-0.009113,-0.010618,-0.01082,-0.010219,-0.009127,-0.007756,-0.006259,-0.00475,-0.003311,-0.001996,-0.000843]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001035,-0.00143,-0.002495,-0.004418,-0.007209,-0.010656,-0.014438,-0.018283,-0.020922,-0.022254,-0.022181,-0.020808,-0.018343,-0.015047,-0.011207,-0.007109,-0.003023,0.000819,0.004228,0.007072]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[4.9e-05,9.8e-05,0.000179,0.00032,0.000539,0.000839,0.001203,0.001609,0.001984,0.002277,0.002454,0.002498,0.002407,0.002195,0.001882,0.001496,0.001066,0.00062,0.000186,-0.000283]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.2e-05,-4.3e-05,-0.000116,-0.000244,-0.000431,-0.000675,-0.000969,-0.001284,-0.001584,-0.001835,-0.002023,-0.002141,-0.002196,-0.002196,-0.002151,-0.002075,-0.001981,-0.001879]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,7e-06,1.2e-05,1.8e-05,2.6e-05,3.5e-05,4.3e-05,5e-05,5.5e-05,5.8e-05,6e-05,6e-05,5.8e-05,5.6e-05,5.4e-05,5.1e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000949,-0.001313,-0.002296,-0.004074,-0.00666,-0.009857,-0.013367,-0.01694,-0.019408,-0.020673,-0.020641,-0.019401,-0.017145,-0.014115,-0.010575,-0.006792,-0.003016,0.000537,0.003694,0.00633]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.059773,-0.07766,-0.0748,-0.077672,-0.083547,-0.091079,-0.099635,-0.108892,-0.091998,-0.077895,-0.065389,-0.05395,-0.043355,-0.033525,-0.024451,-0.016162,-0.00871,-0.002147,0.003485,0.008163]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00408,0.007267,0.007976,0.007494,0.006514,0.005312,0.004004,0.002663,-0.00045,-0.004112,-0.007464,-0.010052,-0.011695,-0.012391,-0.01224,-0.011395,-0.010035,-0.008334,-0.006453,-0.004528]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.3e-05,-4.9e-05,-0.000132,-0.000277,-0.000491,-0.000769,-0.001103,-0.001463,-0.001804,-0.002091,-0.002304,-0.00244,-0.002502,-0.002501,-0.002451,-0.002364,-0.002257,-0.002141]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016319,0.029066,0.031902,0.029975,0.026057,0.021248,0.016014,0.01065,-0.001802,-0.016447,-0.029858,-0.040207,-0.046781,-0.049565,-0.048958,-0.045581,-0.04014,-0.033337,-0.025812,-0.018112]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000103,-0.000239,-0.000482,-0.000748,-0.000998,-0.001215,-0.001391,-0.001524,-0.001612,-0.001595,-0.001457,-0.001207,-0.00087,-0.000479,-6.4e-05,0.000345,0.000726,0.001062,0.001341,0.001556]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00408,-0.007267,-0.007976,-0.007494,-0.006514,-0.005312,-0.004004,-0.002663,0.00045,0.004112,0.007464,0.010052,0.011695,0.012391,0.01224,0.011395,0.010035,0.008334,0.006453,0.004528]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.043043,-0.038739,-0.02793,-0.013262,0.003407,0.020706,0.037524,0.052955,0.06631,0.075415,0.079426,0.078465,0.073218,0.064642,0.053778,0.041625,0.029063,0.016821,0.005456,-0.004638]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048457,0.05453,0.061931,0.06861,0.07371,0.077006,0.078521,0.07837,0.076713,0.072124,0.06425,0.05348,0.040592,0.026499,0.012094,-0.001836,-0.01466,-0.025917,-0.035316,-0.042712]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000333,0.002723,0.007934,0.013908,0.019644,0.024711,0.028905,0.03212,0.034312,0.034015,0.030765,0.024805,0.016753,0.007376,-0.002558,-0.012357,-0.021458,-0.029443,-0.036035,-0.041089]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.001846,0.004306,0.008675,0.013464,0.01796,0.021864,0.025041,0.027429,0.029009,0.028718,0.026227,0.021723,0.015665,0.00862,0.001159,-0.00621,-0.013071,-0.019113,-0.02413,-0.028015]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.095999,-0.100587,-0.073162,-0.068892,-0.076237,-0.089117,-0.104674,-0.12165,-0.087849,-0.066703,-0.052092,-0.040663,-0.030699,-0.021397,-0.012467,-0.003896,0.004189,0.0116,0.018159,0.023717]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.204165,0.28099,0.30313,0.361645,0.449604,0.563898,0.703172,0.866756,0.909595,0.93501,0.944254,0.939829,0.924571,0.901166,0.871968,0.83896,0.803781,0.767709,0.731751,0.69666]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0376,"GDP_peak_quarter":10,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0209,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3789,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_br","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"BR","name":"Brazil"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001881,-0.002661,-0.004956,-0.009514,-0.01677,-0.026378,-0.037508,-0.049398,-0.059507,-0.06715,-0.071603,-0.072735,-0.070754,-0.066069,-0.05921,-0.050775,-0.041381,-0.031618,-0.022007,-0.012975]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001885,-0.003403,-0.004276,-0.005359,-0.007544,-0.011101,-0.015779,-0.021161,-0.02565,-0.029102,-0.031443,-0.032638,-0.032642,-0.031443,-0.029104,-0.025781,-0.021705,-0.017149,-0.012399,-0.007716]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008807,0.014656,0.014514,0.01253,0.010576,0.009222,0.008497,0.008257,0.004008,-0.001022,-0.005259,-0.008187,-0.009839,-0.010467,-0.010363,-0.009785,-0.008932,-0.007945,-0.006923,-0.005928]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010569,0.026332,0.038397,0.044526,0.045671,0.043611,0.039967,0.035892,0.026881,0.013126,-0.002884,-0.018421,-0.0315,-0.041084,-0.046935,-0.049344,-0.048895,-0.046273,-0.042156,-0.037145]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.114382,0.238897,0.321617,0.3857,0.446481,0.512017,0.585442,0.667436,0.701376,0.704472,0.687659,0.658144,0.620622,0.578182,0.532934,0.4864,0.439746,0.393891,0.349578,0.307394]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000547,-0.001569,-0.003164,-0.005482,-0.008748,-0.013167,-0.018844,-0.025795,-0.033538,-0.041531,-0.049224,-0.056154,-0.061973,-0.066444,-0.069431,-0.070889,-0.070855,-0.069432,-0.066778,-0.063087]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.044037,-0.109718,-0.159989,-0.185524,-0.190294,-0.181711,-0.196425,-0.236494,-0.189706,-0.150893,-0.118863,-0.092693,0.131249,0.171184,0.195561,0.205602,0.203728,0.192805,0.175651,0.154771]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.022988,-0.056237,-0.099883,-0.153804,-0.217937,-0.290882,-0.370372,-0.454353,-0.40403,-0.360787,-0.321402,-0.284229,-0.248462,-0.213781,-0.180192,-0.14793,-0.117379,-0.088978,-0.063147,-0.040219]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.035621,0.037659,0.036009,0.030849,0.02298,0.013334,0.002747,-0.008116,-0.01877,-0.028242,-0.035667,-0.040576,-0.042917,-0.042946,-0.041099,-0.037876,-0.033761,-0.029182,-0.024483,-0.019928]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.001983,-0.004099,-0.006731,-0.009708,-0.012755,-0.015652,-0.018267,-0.020551,-0.02251,-0.023923,-0.024575,-0.024372,-0.023353,-0.021651,-0.019452,-0.016949,-0.014318,-0.011704,-0.00922,-0.00694]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.003447,-0.003625,-0.004196,-0.005069,-0.006096,-0.00715,-0.008154,-0.009068,-0.00988,-0.010469,-0.010715,-0.010564,-0.010028,-0.009167,-0.008071,-0.006832,-0.005537,-0.004257,-0.003047,-0.001943]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.3e-05,-0.00032,-0.001068,-0.002597,-0.005114,-0.008662,-0.013154,-0.018423,-0.024139,-0.029844,-0.035077,-0.039441,-0.042638,-0.044477,-0.044883,-0.043883,-0.041592,-0.038195,-0.033921]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001051,0.003643,0.007417,0.011803,0.016288,0.020484,0.02413,0.027063,0.028682,0.028439,0.026037,0.021455,0.014903,0.006747,-0.002562,-0.012547,-0.022743,-0.032729,-0.042146]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.02112,-0.047723,-0.073731,-0.097889,-0.122518,-0.14855,-0.17562,-0.203398,-0.216242,-0.214402,-0.199569,-0.176063,-0.147791,-0.117638,-0.087558,-0.058843,-0.032362,-0.008693,0.011787,0.028887]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000106,-0.000344,-0.000713,-0.001202,-0.001815,-0.002558,-0.003436,-0.004453,-0.005534,-0.006606,-0.007604,-0.008484,-0.009223,-0.009811,-0.010249,-0.010543,-0.010705,-0.010749,-0.01069,-0.010545]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014784,-0.033406,-0.051612,-0.068523,-0.085762,-0.103985,-0.122934,-0.142379,-0.15137,-0.150081,-0.139698,-0.123244,-0.103453,-0.082346,-0.061291,-0.04119,-0.022653,-0.006085,0.008251,0.020221]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0004,0.000541,0.000931,0.001678,0.002834,0.004334,0.006052,0.007869,0.009275,0.010208,0.010617,0.010534,0.010013,0.009117,0.007917,0.006494,0.004937,0.003334,0.001767,0.000304]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-4.8e-05,-0.000164,-0.000408,-0.000822,-0.001428,-0.002228,-0.003212,-0.00434,-0.00555,-0.006771,-0.007934,-0.008979,-0.009858,-0.010537,-0.010997,-0.011233,-0.011252,-0.011073]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.008086,0.016685,0.021977,0.025301,0.027501,0.029187,0.030836,0.032739,0.031008,0.027319,0.023047,0.019053,0.015732,0.013171,0.01129,0.009939,0.008962,0.008224,0.007622,0.007082]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006165,0.010259,0.01016,0.008771,0.007403,0.006455,0.005948,0.00578,0.002805,-0.000715,-0.003682,-0.005731,-0.006887,-0.007327,-0.007254,-0.00685,-0.006252,-0.005562,-0.004846,-0.00415]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001129,-0.001596,-0.002968,-0.005692,-0.010026,-0.015765,-0.022412,-0.029513,-0.035544,-0.040098,-0.042746,-0.043411,-0.04222,-0.039415,-0.035313,-0.030271,-0.024656,-0.01882,-0.013076,-0.007678]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000124,0.000263,0.000512,0.000989,0.001803,0.00301,0.004595,0.006495,0.0085,0.010416,0.012059,0.01329,0.014026,0.014235,0.013929,0.013157,0.011994,0.01053,0.008866,0.007098]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-4.2e-05,-0.000141,-0.000349,-0.000701,-0.001209,-0.001871,-0.002677,-0.003575,-0.004485,-0.00533,-0.006055,-0.006629,-0.007043,-0.0073,-0.007414,-0.007405,-0.007295,-0.007102]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,2e-06,6e-06,1.4e-05,2.9e-05,5e-05,7.7e-05,0.00011,0.000147,0.000184,0.000219,0.000249,0.000272,0.000289,0.0003,0.000305,0.000304,0.0003,0.000292]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001241,-0.001756,-0.003271,-0.006279,-0.011068,-0.017409,-0.024755,-0.032603,-0.039274,-0.044319,-0.047258,-0.048005,-0.046698,-0.043605,-0.039078,-0.033511,-0.027312,-0.020868,-0.014525,-0.008564]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.034691,-0.072157,-0.097261,-0.117018,-0.136056,-0.15675,-0.179962,-0.205815,-0.216857,-0.218247,-0.213292,-0.204218,-0.192482,-0.179042,-0.164562,-0.149541,-0.13438,-0.119415,-0.104932,-0.09116]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002642,0.006583,0.009599,0.011131,0.011418,0.010903,0.009992,0.008973,0.00672,0.003282,-0.000721,-0.004605,-0.007875,-0.010271,-0.011734,-0.012336,-0.012224,-0.011568,-0.010539,-0.009286]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-5.1e-05,-0.000169,-0.000418,-0.00084,-0.001449,-0.002243,-0.003208,-0.004285,-0.005376,-0.006388,-0.007258,-0.007946,-0.008442,-0.00875,-0.008887,-0.008876,-0.008743,-0.008513]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010569,0.026332,0.038397,0.044526,0.045671,0.043611,0.039967,0.035892,0.026881,0.013126,-0.002884,-0.018421,-0.0315,-0.041084,-0.046935,-0.049344,-0.048895,-0.046273,-0.042156,-0.037145]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00047,-0.000561,-0.000783,-0.001107,-0.001483,-0.001868,-0.002237,-0.002576,-0.002881,-0.003111,-0.003225,-0.003206,-0.003056,-0.002797,-0.002457,-0.002067,-0.001656,-0.001248,-0.000861,-0.000507]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002642,-0.006583,-0.009599,-0.011131,-0.011418,-0.010903,-0.009992,-0.008973,-0.00672,-0.003282,0.000721,0.004605,0.007875,0.010271,0.011734,0.012336,0.012224,0.011568,0.010539,0.009286]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.067679,-0.071553,-0.068416,-0.058612,-0.043662,-0.025334,-0.005219,0.01542,0.035663,0.05366,0.067767,0.077095,0.081541,0.081597,0.078089,0.071964,0.064146,0.055445,0.046518,0.037862]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.008925,0.018443,0.030288,0.043685,0.0574,0.070434,0.082201,0.092478,0.101295,0.107655,0.110589,0.109675,0.105087,0.097432,0.087536,0.076271,0.064429,0.05267,0.04149,0.031231]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.028264,0.029722,0.034409,0.041569,0.049984,0.058634,0.066865,0.074354,0.081016,0.085843,0.087866,0.086628,0.082227,0.075172,0.066181,0.056022,0.045402,0.034907,0.024983,0.015935]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.008465,0.01009,0.014096,0.019926,0.026688,0.033632,0.040273,0.046371,0.051859,0.055991,0.058054,0.057706,0.055015,0.050348,0.044227,0.037211,0.029816,0.02247,0.0155,0.009131]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00991,-0.082018,-0.151716,-0.207753,-0.26341,-0.325334,-0.395994,-0.475873,-0.54007,-0.572033,-0.581871,-0.576298,-0.559825,-0.535578,-0.505827,-0.472318,-0.436456,-0.399407,-0.362142,-0.325463]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.120742,0.262825,0.377996,0.492133,0.622509,0.778376,0.963531,1.178987,1.310979,1.383968,1.414695,1.415152,1.39392,1.357204,1.309589,1.254551,1.194811,1.132482,1.069252,1.006454]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0727,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0766,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.4544,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_ru","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"RU","name":"Russia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00139,-0.001969,-0.003614,-0.006794,-0.01182,-0.018477,-0.026174,-0.034372,-0.041247,-0.04629,-0.048831,-0.048685,-0.046089,-0.04153,-0.0356,-0.028887,-0.021949,-0.01519,-0.008953,-0.003475]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000754,-0.000979,-0.001406,-0.002444,-0.004345,-0.007089,-0.010436,-0.014119,-0.017499,-0.0203,-0.022141,-0.022804,-0.022269,-0.020669,-0.018227,-0.015204,-0.011878,-0.008476,-0.005201,-0.002213]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003947,0.003203,0.002001,0.000901,-0.000171,-0.001251,-0.002303,-0.003283,-0.004717,-0.005869,-0.006559,-0.006732,-0.006434,-0.005769,-0.004856,-0.00381,-0.002724,-0.001676,-0.000718,0.000119]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00296,0.004955,0.005494,0.004756,0.002882,9e-06,-0.003651,-0.007837,-0.012706,-0.017781,-0.022411,-0.026005,-0.028175,-0.028769,-0.027847,-0.02562,-0.022384,-0.018467,-0.014191,-0.009837]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.032893,0.043134,0.049088,0.055066,0.062557,0.071845,0.082409,0.09373,0.100851,0.10558,0.106903,0.104385,0.098271,0.089256,0.078236,0.066117,0.053741,0.041713,0.030515,0.020478]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000272,-0.000652,-0.001268,-0.002314,-0.004021,-0.006572,-0.010052,-0.014462,-0.019521,-0.024896,-0.030192,-0.035021,-0.03907,-0.042123,-0.04407,-0.044895,-0.04466,-0.043482,-0.041514,-0.038928]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.009251,-0.019625,-0.034684,-0.051966,-0.071116,-0.091857,-0.113954,-0.1372,-0.110056,-0.087539,0.070033,0.081267,0.088047,0.089904,0.087023,0.080064,0.069949,0.05771,0.044346,0.030741]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.024933,-0.062945,-0.11148,-0.169491,-0.236456,-0.311158,-0.391824,-0.47686,-0.406985,-0.347823,-0.296089,-0.249835,-0.208059,-0.170316,-0.136439,-0.106374,-0.08013,-0.05758,-0.038611,-0.023048]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001196,-0.000762,-0.003604,-0.007093,-0.010938,-0.01482,-0.018417,-0.021442,-0.023664,-0.024874,-0.02496,-0.023932,-0.021911,-0.019094,-0.01572,-0.012036,-0.008271,-0.004621,-0.001241,0.001757]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.012231,-0.012661,-0.012998,-0.013191,-0.013204,-0.013007,-0.012579,-0.011907,-0.010988,-0.00981,-0.008379,-0.006733,-0.004934,-0.003062,-0.0012,0.000573,0.00219,0.003602,0.004776,0.005697]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.002934,-0.002937,-0.003004,-0.003097,-0.003183,-0.003232,-0.003216,-0.003115,-0.002914,-0.002596,-0.002155,-0.0016,-0.000957,-0.000261,0.000449,0.001135,0.001766,0.002315,0.002767,0.003112]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.2e-05,-0.000244,-0.000787,-0.001885,-0.00368,-0.006191,-0.009341,-0.013001,-0.016917,-0.02071,-0.023993,-0.026453,-0.027892,-0.02823,-0.027499,-0.025812,-0.023338,-0.020275,-0.016835]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.000462,0.001198,0.00197,0.002563,0.002769,0.002397,0.001282,-0.000702,-0.003695,-0.007738,-0.012758,-0.018573,-0.024922,-0.031498,-0.037984,-0.044076,-0.049511,-0.054076,-0.057616]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.008333,-0.013516,-0.019976,-0.029255,-0.042278,-0.05813,-0.075104,-0.092145,-0.102633,-0.107189,-0.104774,-0.096248,-0.083276,-0.067697,-0.051164,-0.035007,-0.020295,-0.007514,0.00293,0.010896]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-4.2e-05,-0.000109,-0.000209,-0.000355,-0.000567,-0.000857,-0.001233,-0.001694,-0.002207,-0.002743,-0.003267,-0.003748,-0.004164,-0.004503,-0.004759,-0.004934,-0.005035,-0.005073,-0.005058,-0.005004]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005833,-0.009461,-0.013983,-0.020479,-0.029595,-0.040691,-0.052573,-0.064501,-0.071843,-0.075032,-0.073342,-0.067373,-0.058293,-0.047388,-0.035815,-0.024505,-0.014206,-0.00526,0.002051,0.007627]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000252,0.000216,-3.4e-05,-0.000677,-0.001853,-0.003513,-0.005483,-0.007625,-0.010129,-0.012657,-0.014775,-0.016224,-0.016946,-0.017013,-0.016562,-0.015742,-0.01468,-0.01349,-0.012247,-0.011005]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.2e-05,-6.9e-05,-0.000227,-0.000556,-0.001111,-0.001918,-0.002974,-0.004261,-0.00572,-0.00725,-0.008734,-0.010067,-0.011165,-0.011974,-0.012467,-0.012644,-0.012525,-0.012145,-0.011547]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.003373,0.003953,0.002781,-0.000579,-0.006627,-0.01505,-0.024982,-0.0357,-0.047333,-0.05827,-0.06676,-0.071867,-0.073493,-0.072093,-0.068365,-0.063053,-0.056821,-0.050214,-0.043635,-0.037366]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002763,0.002242,0.001401,0.000631,-0.00012,-0.000875,-0.001612,-0.002298,-0.003302,-0.004109,-0.004591,-0.004712,-0.004504,-0.004038,-0.003399,-0.002667,-0.001907,-0.001174,-0.000503,8.3e-05]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000834,-0.00118,-0.002163,-0.004062,-0.007062,-0.011035,-0.015627,-0.020518,-0.024614,-0.027613,-0.029118,-0.029019,-0.027458,-0.024729,-0.021182,-0.01717,-0.013024,-0.008988,-0.005264,-0.001995]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000137,0.000297,0.00058,0.001107,0.001999,0.003327,0.005085,0.007217,0.009498,0.011711,0.013626,0.015052,0.015868,0.016032,0.01557,0.01456,0.013115,0.011362,0.009428,0.007433]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-4.2e-05,-0.00014,-0.000345,-0.000693,-0.001201,-0.001868,-0.002686,-0.003618,-0.004599,-0.005558,-0.006434,-0.007181,-0.007774,-0.008201,-0.008468,-0.008585,-0.008569,-0.00844]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,5e-06,1.1e-05,2.3e-05,3.9e-05,6.1e-05,8.8e-05,0.000118,0.00015,0.000181,0.00021,0.000234,0.000254,0.000268,0.000276,0.00028,0.00028,0.000275]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000765,-0.001083,-0.001988,-0.003737,-0.006501,-0.010162,-0.014396,-0.018904,-0.022686,-0.025459,-0.026857,-0.026777,-0.025349,-0.022842,-0.01958,-0.015888,-0.012072,-0.008355,-0.004924,-0.001912]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.010146,-0.01329,-0.015234,-0.017284,-0.019889,-0.023118,-0.026785,-0.030698,-0.033048,-0.034407,-0.03451,-0.03328,-0.030843,-0.027456,-0.023431,-0.019078,-0.014692,-0.010476,-0.006602,-0.003185]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00074,0.001239,0.001373,0.001189,0.00072,2e-06,-0.000913,-0.001959,-0.003177,-0.004445,-0.005603,-0.006501,-0.007044,-0.007192,-0.006962,-0.006405,-0.005596,-0.004617,-0.003548,-0.002459]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-4.8e-05,-0.000159,-0.000393,-0.000789,-0.001368,-0.002128,-0.00306,-0.004122,-0.00524,-0.006333,-0.00733,-0.008182,-0.008857,-0.009344,-0.009648,-0.009781,-0.009762,-0.009615]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00296,0.004955,0.005494,0.004756,0.002882,9e-06,-0.003651,-0.007837,-0.012706,-0.017781,-0.022411,-0.026005,-0.028175,-0.028769,-0.027847,-0.02562,-0.022384,-0.018467,-0.014191,-0.009837]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00096,-0.000984,-0.001026,-0.001071,-0.00111,-0.001133,-0.001132,-0.001101,-0.001035,-0.000928,-0.000778,-0.00059,-0.000373,-0.000137,0.000104,0.000337,0.000551,0.000738,0.000892,0.00101]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00074,-0.001239,-0.001373,-0.001189,-0.00072,-2e-06,0.000913,0.001959,0.003177,0.004445,0.005603,0.006501,0.007044,0.007192,0.006962,0.006405,0.005596,0.004617,0.003548,0.002459]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002272,0.001449,0.006848,0.013476,0.020782,0.028158,0.034992,0.040739,0.044963,0.047261,0.047424,0.045472,0.041632,0.03628,0.029869,0.022868,0.015714,0.00878,0.002359,-0.003338]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.055041,0.056976,0.058491,0.059361,0.059418,0.058533,0.056607,0.053582,0.049448,0.044145,0.037707,0.0303,0.022204,0.013777,0.005398,-0.002579,-0.009856,-0.016209,-0.021492,-0.025635]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.024058,0.024082,0.024634,0.025399,0.026103,0.026499,0.02637,0.025542,0.023899,0.021291,0.01767,0.013119,0.007847,0.00214,-0.003681,-0.009309,-0.014478,-0.018984,-0.022688,-0.025518]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.017278,0.017721,0.01846,0.019276,0.019979,0.020398,0.020384,0.019819,0.018624,0.016698,0.01401,0.010628,0.006708,0.002463,-0.001868,-0.00606,-0.009914,-0.013281,-0.016057,-0.018188]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.121246,0.174646,0.178908,0.186163,0.195428,0.20725,0.222672,0.242332,0.208422,0.177188,0.150369,0.12912,0.113631,0.103347,0.097308,0.094436,0.093669,0.094176,0.095263,0.096418]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.039252,0.067063,0.105467,0.161499,0.238584,0.338205,0.460498,0.605281,0.710454,0.785077,0.833939,0.861394,0.87157,0.868278,0.854891,0.834268,0.808806,0.780303,0.750189,0.719538]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0488,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":-0.0208,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.4769,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_au","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"AU","name":"Australia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000711,-0.001034,-0.001999,-0.003969,-0.007225,-0.011589,-0.016598,-0.021891,-0.026485,-0.029831,-0.031454,-0.031445,-0.030134,-0.027894,-0.025059,-0.021896,-0.01861,-0.015351,-0.012229,-0.009324]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000846,-0.001628,-0.002189,-0.002871,-0.004099,-0.006001,-0.00843,-0.011181,-0.013583,-0.015373,-0.016357,-0.016564,-0.016125,-0.015197,-0.013921,-0.012417,-0.01078,-0.009087,-0.007402,-0.005775]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.009094,0.015064,0.014997,0.01278,0.010383,0.008609,0.007665,0.007469,0.003727,-0.000687,-0.004362,-0.006842,-0.008162,-0.008559,-0.008313,-0.007674,-0.006837,-0.005939,-0.005069,-0.004277]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004365,0.011458,0.017907,0.02233,0.024575,0.025063,0.024404,0.023166,0.019816,0.014274,0.007323,-4e-05,-0.006965,-0.012881,-0.017491,-0.020722,-0.022651,-0.023447,-0.02332,-0.022488]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.075153,0.157257,0.213784,0.256993,0.296359,0.337611,0.383336,0.434492,0.457299,0.460255,0.44851,0.426131,0.396635,0.363004,0.327627,0.292295,0.258266,0.226349,0.197013,0.170472]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000147,-0.000433,-0.000912,-0.001654,-0.002752,-0.004283,-0.006279,-0.008739,-0.011528,-0.014458,-0.017309,-0.0199,-0.022107,-0.023863,-0.025147,-0.025968,-0.026356,-0.026353,-0.026009,-0.025377]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.027281,-0.071614,-0.111917,-0.139561,-0.160171,-0.206885,-0.256653,-0.309008,-0.247874,-0.19716,-0.155309,-0.121115,-0.093515,0.080504,0.10932,0.129513,0.141571,0.146546,0.145751,0.14055]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014596,-0.036526,-0.064971,-0.099754,-0.140957,-0.187657,-0.238301,-0.291632,-0.256053,-0.225363,-0.1972,-0.170872,-0.146386,-0.123918,-0.103597,-0.085448,-0.069412,-0.055371,-0.043183,-0.032701]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.019158,0.02109,0.021442,0.020119,0.017323,0.01338,0.008637,0.0034,-0.002086,-0.007394,-0.012109,-0.01594,-0.018746,-0.02052,-0.021347,-0.021371,-0.020756,-0.01967,-0.018267,-0.016678]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002234,0.000958,-0.00059,-0.00237,-0.004276,-0.006203,-0.008067,-0.009818,-0.011435,-0.012819,-0.013871,-0.014528,-0.014775,-0.014642,-0.014184,-0.01347,-0.012574,-0.011564,-0.010499,-0.009426]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.003075,-0.003219,-0.003536,-0.00401,-0.00459,-0.005222,-0.005863,-0.006484,-0.007071,-0.007572,-0.007933,-0.008117,-0.008117,-0.007942,-0.007618,-0.007178,-0.006658,-0.006089,-0.0055,-0.004915]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.1e-05,-0.000241,-0.000792,-0.001918,-0.003742,-0.006232,-0.00926,-0.012664,-0.016124,-0.019225,-0.021653,-0.023239,-0.023945,-0.023826,-0.022989,-0.021567,-0.019699,-0.017521,-0.015157]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.000991,0.003459,0.007134,0.011533,0.016212,0.020848,0.025253,0.029348,0.032686,0.034832,0.035526,0.034706,0.032471,0.029028,0.024641,0.019588,0.014137,0.008525,0.002954]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.008539,-0.020398,-0.033392,-0.046501,-0.060193,-0.074146,-0.087708,-0.10083,-0.10784,-0.107532,-0.099849,-0.087113,-0.071752,-0.055712,-0.040322,-0.026366,-0.014229,-0.004019,0.004313,0.010906]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-4.3e-05,-0.000145,-0.000312,-0.000544,-0.000845,-0.001216,-0.001654,-0.002159,-0.002698,-0.003235,-0.003735,-0.00417,-0.004529,-0.004808,-0.005009,-0.005141,-0.005212,-0.005232,-0.005211,-0.005156]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005977,-0.014278,-0.023375,-0.03255,-0.042135,-0.051902,-0.061396,-0.070581,-0.075488,-0.075272,-0.069894,-0.060979,-0.050227,-0.038999,-0.028225,-0.018456,-0.009961,-0.002813,0.003019,0.007634]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000138,0.000185,0.000309,0.000546,0.000921,0.001407,0.001948,0.002505,0.002913,0.003122,0.003111,0.002936,0.00266,0.002335,0.001995,0.001657,0.001331,0.001023,0.000736,0.000472]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-5.1e-05,-0.000173,-0.000432,-0.000875,-0.001519,-0.002358,-0.003376,-0.004515,-0.005687,-0.006807,-0.007811,-0.008657,-0.009322,-0.009797,-0.010086,-0.010199,-0.010151,-0.009961]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.008314,0.01726,0.023104,0.026968,0.029699,0.031953,0.034228,0.036851,0.03622,0.033657,0.030213,0.026598,0.023219,0.020263,0.017778,0.015734,0.014068,0.012705,0.011575,0.010615]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006365,0.010545,0.010498,0.008946,0.007268,0.006026,0.005366,0.005228,0.002609,-0.000481,-0.003054,-0.004789,-0.005713,-0.005991,-0.005819,-0.005372,-0.004786,-0.004157,-0.003548,-0.002994]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000427,-0.000619,-0.001194,-0.002368,-0.004307,-0.006905,-0.009886,-0.013035,-0.015765,-0.017747,-0.018701,-0.018685,-0.017896,-0.016557,-0.014866,-0.012983,-0.011028,-0.00909,-0.007234,-0.005508]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00011,0.000248,0.000509,0.001022,0.001938,0.003346,0.00525,0.007593,0.01018,0.012767,0.015089,0.016945,0.018227,0.018905,0.019008,0.0186,0.017765,0.016591,0.015169,0.01358]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-4.5e-05,-0.00015,-0.000373,-0.000751,-0.001298,-0.002007,-0.002865,-0.003813,-0.004759,-0.005621,-0.006343,-0.006897,-0.007278,-0.007494,-0.007564,-0.007512,-0.007359,-0.007129]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,6e-06,1.2e-05,2e-05,3.1e-05,4.4e-05,5.8e-05,7.3e-05,8.6e-05,9.7e-05,0.000106,0.000112,0.000115,0.000116,0.000115,0.000113,0.000109]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000509,-0.000739,-0.001429,-0.002838,-0.005166,-0.008286,-0.011868,-0.015652,-0.018937,-0.021329,-0.022489,-0.022483,-0.021546,-0.019944,-0.017917,-0.015656,-0.013306,-0.010976,-0.008744,-0.006667]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.022653,-0.047299,-0.064274,-0.077247,-0.08906,-0.101424,-0.115111,-0.13041,-0.13707,-0.137657,-0.133776,-0.126727,-0.117619,-0.107365,-0.096677,-0.086072,-0.075906,-0.066401,-0.057681,-0.049801]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001091,0.002865,0.004477,0.005582,0.006144,0.006266,0.006101,0.005791,0.004954,0.003568,0.001831,-1e-05,-0.001741,-0.00322,-0.004373,-0.005181,-0.005663,-0.005862,-0.00583,-0.005622]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-9e-06,-5.6e-05,-0.000188,-0.000468,-0.000942,-0.001628,-0.002518,-0.003594,-0.004784,-0.005971,-0.007052,-0.007957,-0.008652,-0.00913,-0.009401,-0.009489,-0.009423,-0.009232,-0.008943]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004365,0.011458,0.017907,0.02233,0.024575,0.025063,0.024404,0.023166,0.019816,0.014274,0.007323,-4e-05,-0.006965,-0.012881,-0.017491,-0.020722,-0.022651,-0.023447,-0.02332,-0.022488]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000997,-0.00103,-0.001123,-0.00127,-0.001455,-0.00166,-0.001869,-0.002074,-0.002269,-0.002437,-0.002559,-0.002624,-0.002627,-0.002573,-0.00247,-0.002328,-0.002159,-0.001974,-0.001781,-0.001589]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001091,-0.002865,-0.004477,-0.005582,-0.006144,-0.006266,-0.006101,-0.005791,-0.004954,-0.003568,-0.001831,1e-05,0.001741,0.00322,0.004373,0.005181,0.005663,0.005862,0.00583,0.005622]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.036401,-0.040071,-0.040739,-0.038226,-0.032913,-0.025422,-0.016411,-0.006461,0.003963,0.014049,0.023008,0.030285,0.035617,0.038987,0.04056,0.040605,0.039437,0.037373,0.034706,0.031688]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.010052,-0.00431,0.002657,0.010664,0.019244,0.027915,0.036303,0.044181,0.051455,0.057687,0.062421,0.065375,0.066489,0.065889,0.063826,0.060616,0.056584,0.052039,0.047244,0.042418]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.025213,0.026398,0.028996,0.03288,0.037635,0.042819,0.048074,0.053168,0.057984,0.062093,0.065047,0.066562,0.066556,0.06512,0.062466,0.058862,0.054593,0.049929,0.045104,0.040306]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.017942,0.018538,0.020211,0.022865,0.026196,0.029878,0.033648,0.037333,0.040845,0.043865,0.046063,0.047227,0.047291,0.046319,0.044461,0.041908,0.038867,0.03553,0.032065,0.028608]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.051293,0.036614,1.5e-05,-0.027084,-0.051645,-0.07752,-0.106198,-0.138182,-0.188028,-0.220077,-0.237239,-0.242102,-0.237383,-0.225753,-0.209594,-0.190865,-0.171071,-0.15129,-0.132253,-0.114423]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.081513,0.181186,0.270163,0.363427,0.472386,0.603971,0.761425,0.946044,1.066902,1.139751,1.175547,1.183139,1.169933,1.142026,1.104282,1.060446,1.013331,0.964939,0.916686,0.869532]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0315,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0779,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2916,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_kr","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"KR","name":"South Korea"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00114,-0.001671,-0.003262,-0.006454,-0.011591,-0.018352,-0.026079,-0.034293,-0.041493,-0.046985,-0.050158,-0.051101,-0.050158,-0.047713,-0.044128,-0.039723,-0.034786,-0.029569,-0.024297,-0.01916]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001996,-0.0038,-0.004601,-0.005264,-0.006763,-0.009423,-0.013047,-0.017297,-0.020622,-0.022945,-0.024331,-0.024946,-0.024906,-0.024274,-0.023095,-0.021418,-0.019322,-0.016906,-0.014284,-0.011575]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.019365,0.03236,0.031393,0.026581,0.022579,0.020777,0.021053,0.022779,0.014786,0.004759,-0.003713,-0.009547,-0.012891,-0.014332,-0.014504,-0.013927,-0.012972,-0.011879,-0.010785,-0.009762]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.011619,0.029728,0.044562,0.053594,0.057843,0.059318,0.05982,0.060535,0.055744,0.045006,0.03046,0.014721,-0.000122,-0.012781,-0.022689,-0.029791,-0.034346,-0.036764,-0.037496,-0.036974]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.101921,0.211968,0.277848,0.32238,0.360732,0.401825,0.45017,0.507341,0.517925,0.501612,0.472112,0.437934,0.403729,0.371652,0.342414,0.315994,0.292067,0.270237,0.250146,0.231512]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000321,-0.000977,-0.002024,-0.003539,-0.00565,-0.008474,-0.012072,-0.016468,-0.021411,-0.026578,-0.031623,-0.036273,-0.04034,-0.043714,-0.04634,-0.048204,-0.049323,-0.049734,-0.049495,-0.048671]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.058095,-0.148639,-0.222811,-0.267971,-0.289217,-0.296591,-0.299098,-0.302673,-0.278719,-0.22503,-0.152298,-0.09883,-0.076308,0.063906,0.113443,0.148955,0.171731,0.18382,0.187481,0.184872]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.018872,-0.0466,-0.0831,-0.128361,-0.182462,-0.244006,-0.310862,-0.381399,-0.340444,-0.305242,-0.272812,-0.242242,-0.213367,-0.186199,-0.160747,-0.137003,-0.114963,-0.094636,-0.076057,-0.059263]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.047127,0.052643,0.054553,0.05279,0.047931,0.040685,0.031673,0.021359,0.010068,-0.001193,-0.011414,-0.019909,-0.02637,-0.030802,-0.033406,-0.034486,-0.034375,-0.033392,-0.031814,-0.029868]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.015599,0.01324,0.010073,0.006278,0.002153,-0.002063,-0.006236,-0.010324,-0.014345,-0.018035,-0.021105,-0.023372,-0.024786,-0.025397,-0.025322,-0.024702,-0.023682,-0.022392,-0.020944,-0.019422]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.001147,-0.001581,-0.002453,-0.003681,-0.005122,-0.006657,-0.008217,-0.009779,-0.011349,-0.012791,-0.013958,-0.014755,-0.015154,-0.015178,-0.014882,-0.014337,-0.013612,-0.012774,-0.011875,-0.010957]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.8e-05,-0.00028,-0.000914,-0.002196,-0.00427,-0.007132,-0.010689,-0.014808,-0.019194,-0.023451,-0.027238,-0.030318,-0.032548,-0.033868,-0.034277,-0.033825,-0.032595,-0.030698,-0.02826]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.002123,0.007433,0.015253,0.024547,0.034494,0.044621,0.054743,0.064854,0.073887,0.080747,0.08472,0.08554,0.08331,0.078368,0.071183,0.06227,0.052131,0.041225,0.029955]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.020621,-0.049787,-0.077499,-0.10147,-0.123985,-0.1465,-0.169572,-0.193834,-0.205492,-0.202787,-0.187349,-0.164072,-0.13729,-0.110043,-0.084146,-0.060518,-0.039522,-0.021205,-0.005479,0.007812]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000103,-0.000352,-0.00074,-0.001247,-0.001867,-0.002599,-0.003447,-0.004416,-0.005444,-0.006458,-0.007394,-0.008215,-0.008901,-0.009452,-0.009872,-0.010175,-0.010372,-0.010478,-0.010506,-0.010467]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014435,-0.034851,-0.054249,-0.071029,-0.086789,-0.10255,-0.1187,-0.135684,-0.143844,-0.141951,-0.131144,-0.114851,-0.096103,-0.07703,-0.058902,-0.042363,-0.027665,-0.014844,-0.003836,0.005469]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000207,0.000302,0.000588,0.00116,0.002081,0.003291,0.004674,0.006144,0.00743,0.008408,0.008969,0.009133,0.008961,0.008521,0.007879,0.007091,0.006209,0.005276,0.004332,0.003413]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.6e-05,-9.8e-05,-0.000327,-0.000803,-0.001605,-0.00276,-0.00427,-0.006111,-0.008203,-0.010414,-0.012615,-0.014698,-0.016578,-0.018194,-0.019505,-0.020488,-0.021136,-0.021456,-0.021467]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.019495,0.040685,0.054246,0.065001,0.076189,0.089344,0.104804,0.122434,0.131299,0.134372,0.133298,0.129234,0.123072,0.115518,0.107132,0.098353,0.089519,0.080883,0.072628,0.064879]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013555,0.022652,0.021975,0.018606,0.015805,0.014544,0.014737,0.015945,0.01035,0.003331,-0.002599,-0.006683,-0.009024,-0.010033,-0.010153,-0.009749,-0.009081,-0.008315,-0.007549,-0.006833]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000684,-0.001,-0.001946,-0.00384,-0.006887,-0.010895,-0.015474,-0.02034,-0.024596,-0.027832,-0.029692,-0.030233,-0.029662,-0.028208,-0.026083,-0.023475,-0.020553,-0.017464,-0.014342,-0.011298]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000114,0.000255,0.000522,0.001046,0.001961,0.003339,0.005166,0.007385,0.009803,0.012201,0.014351,0.016089,0.017321,0.018018,0.01819,0.017881,0.017149,0.016067,0.014712,0.013161]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-4.9e-05,-0.00016,-0.000388,-0.000767,-0.001303,-0.001986,-0.002803,-0.003694,-0.004568,-0.005347,-0.005982,-0.006452,-0.006758,-0.006913,-0.006938,-0.006857,-0.006691,-0.006463]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,5e-06,1.1e-05,1.8e-05,2.7e-05,3.8e-05,5.1e-05,6.3e-05,7.3e-05,8.2e-05,8.8e-05,9.3e-05,9.5e-05,9.5e-05,9.4e-05,9.2e-05,8.9e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00069,-0.001011,-0.001974,-0.003905,-0.007013,-0.011103,-0.015778,-0.020747,-0.025104,-0.028426,-0.030345,-0.030916,-0.030345,-0.028866,-0.026697,-0.024033,-0.021046,-0.017889,-0.0147,-0.011592]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.030953,-0.064069,-0.084076,-0.097863,-0.109995,-0.123088,-0.138422,-0.156431,-0.160066,-0.155223,-0.146097,-0.135419,-0.124709,-0.114657,-0.105472,-0.097125,-0.089496,-0.082454,-0.075896,-0.069749]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002905,0.007432,0.011141,0.013399,0.014461,0.01483,0.014955,0.015134,0.013936,0.011252,0.007615,0.00368,-3e-05,-0.003195,-0.005672,-0.007448,-0.008587,-0.009191,-0.009374,-0.009244]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.1e-05,-6.1e-05,-0.0002,-0.000488,-0.000964,-0.001636,-0.002493,-0.003519,-0.004638,-0.005736,-0.006714,-0.007512,-0.008102,-0.008487,-0.008681,-0.008713,-0.00861,-0.008402,-0.008116]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.011619,0.029728,0.044562,0.053594,0.057843,0.059318,0.05982,0.060535,0.055744,0.045006,0.03046,0.014721,-0.000122,-0.012781,-0.022689,-0.029791,-0.034346,-0.036764,-0.037496,-0.036974]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000661,-0.000746,-0.000986,-0.001352,-0.001796,-0.002278,-0.002776,-0.003281,-0.003795,-0.004271,-0.00466,-0.004929,-0.005068,-0.005083,-0.004994,-0.004821,-0.004588,-0.004316,-0.004022,-0.003719]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002905,-0.007432,-0.011141,-0.013399,-0.014461,-0.01483,-0.014955,-0.015134,-0.013936,-0.011252,-0.007615,-0.00368,3e-05,0.003195,0.005672,0.007448,0.008587,0.009191,0.009374,0.009244]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.089542,-0.100022,-0.10365,-0.100301,-0.091068,-0.077302,-0.060178,-0.040582,-0.01913,0.002266,0.021687,0.037826,0.050104,0.058524,0.063472,0.065523,0.065313,0.063445,0.060446,0.05675]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.070197,-0.059578,-0.045326,-0.028251,-0.009689,0.009284,0.028061,0.046456,0.064554,0.081158,0.094972,0.105175,0.111536,0.114288,0.113948,0.111158,0.106568,0.100766,0.094246,0.0874]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.009404,0.012965,0.020115,0.030188,0.042003,0.054586,0.067378,0.080186,0.093063,0.10489,0.114457,0.120993,0.124262,0.124456,0.122032,0.117559,0.111621,0.104744,0.097372,0.089851]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.011889,0.013435,0.017743,0.024328,0.032322,0.041008,0.049971,0.059061,0.068307,0.076878,0.083874,0.088717,0.091218,0.091503,0.089889,0.086781,0.082589,0.077687,0.072389,0.06694]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.006992,-0.044333,-0.093503,-0.127593,-0.159044,-0.19491,-0.238679,-0.291501,-0.33309,-0.348099,-0.348586,-0.342054,-0.332639,-0.322311,-0.311818,-0.301304,-0.29068,-0.279816,-0.268625,-0.257085]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.108281,0.235897,0.334226,0.428813,0.536759,0.668185,0.828259,1.018893,1.127528,1.181109,1.199149,1.194942,1.177027,1.150674,1.119069,1.084145,1.047132,1.008827,0.96982,0.930572]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0511,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.2032,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3814,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_mx","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"MX","name":"Mexico"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002101,-0.003781,-0.009156,-0.019796,-0.036392,-0.057539,-0.081164,-0.106061,-0.129462,-0.149071,-0.162405,-0.16892,-0.169014,-0.163539,-0.153546,-0.140149,-0.124442,-0.107424,-0.089966,-0.072783]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005932,-0.010738,-0.012125,-0.014279,-0.020256,-0.030261,-0.042994,-0.057187,-0.068072,-0.07653,-0.082981,-0.087381,-0.089442,-0.088951,-0.085932,-0.080648,-0.073536,-0.065113,-0.055906,-0.0464]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.042678,0.064054,0.053508,0.042686,0.039019,0.041166,0.046283,0.052338,0.031607,0.009552,-0.006554,-0.016396,-0.021619,-0.023917,-0.024519,-0.024189,-0.023365,-0.022289,-0.021088,-0.019835]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.03841,0.090022,0.122096,0.136301,0.142378,0.147597,0.15524,0.165922,0.15503,0.124787,0.084922,0.04403,0.00737,-0.022716,-0.045779,-0.062372,-0.073467,-0.080124,-0.083331,-0.083939]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.172787,0.356138,0.460826,0.544198,0.636955,0.750294,0.885186,1.039237,1.101589,1.112497,1.094758,1.060976,1.017947,0.96945,0.917792,0.864564,0.810985,0.758019,0.70644,0.656847]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001197,-0.003728,-0.007683,-0.013444,-0.021696,-0.033001,-0.047612,-0.065574,-0.085928,-0.107449,-0.128799,-0.148835,-0.166676,-0.181693,-0.19349,-0.201867,-0.206803,-0.208416,-0.206944,-0.202704]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.160044,-0.375091,-0.508733,-0.567923,-0.59324,-0.614987,-0.646834,-0.691341,-0.645957,-0.519947,-0.353842,-0.183457,-0.062842,0.09465,0.190745,0.259884,0.306114,0.333852,0.347212,0.349747]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.019803,-0.049234,-0.091456,-0.147944,-0.219168,-0.302004,-0.392218,-0.487198,-0.470532,-0.457051,-0.440807,-0.419668,-0.393334,-0.362387,-0.32784,-0.290901,-0.252825,-0.214799,-0.177869,-0.142888]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.124746,0.139323,0.143669,0.139022,0.127488,0.110612,0.089323,0.064196,0.035659,0.007097,-0.018517,-0.039549,-0.055545,-0.066798,-0.073963,-0.077809,-0.079074,-0.078411,-0.076362,-0.073363]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.048119,0.042066,0.033562,0.023631,0.013191,0.002664,-0.007903,-0.018632,-0.029683,-0.039988,-0.048594,-0.055035,-0.059274,-0.06154,-0.062177,-0.061551,-0.059999,-0.057809,-0.055215,-0.0524]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000691,-0.002276,-0.00513,-0.008763,-0.012729,-0.016822,-0.021019,-0.025377,-0.029966,-0.034244,-0.037721,-0.040152,-0.041506,-0.041886,-0.041453,-0.04038,-0.038831,-0.036944,-0.034833,-0.032592]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000206,-0.001147,-0.003553,-0.008173,-0.015403,-0.025217,-0.037384,-0.051606,-0.067142,-0.082846,-0.097595,-0.110454,-0.120747,-0.128057,-0.132209,-0.133238,-0.131343,-0.126844,-0.120142]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.005023,0.016629,0.032201,0.049393,0.066998,0.084633,0.102286,0.120027,0.13476,0.143849,0.14595,0.140858,0.129121,0.111705,0.089755,0.064455,0.036939,0.008248,-0.020698]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.063499,-0.147291,-0.214121,-0.270429,-0.331871,-0.403336,-0.483283,-0.570139,-0.61767,-0.623282,-0.594451,-0.544489,-0.48335,-0.417364,-0.35034,-0.284625,-0.221789,-0.162943,-0.10891,-0.060252]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000317,-0.001054,-0.002125,-0.003477,-0.005136,-0.007153,-0.009569,-0.01242,-0.015508,-0.018625,-0.021597,-0.024319,-0.026736,-0.028823,-0.030575,-0.031998,-0.033107,-0.033921,-0.034466,-0.034767]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.044449,-0.103104,-0.149885,-0.1893,-0.23231,-0.282335,-0.338298,-0.399097,-0.432369,-0.436297,-0.416116,-0.381142,-0.338345,-0.292155,-0.245238,-0.199237,-0.155252,-0.11406,-0.076237,-0.042176]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000355,0.00062,0.001457,0.003097,0.005629,0.008826,0.012374,0.016102,0.01956,0.022418,0.024328,0.025237,0.025215,0.024385,0.022894,0.020897,0.018549,0.015993,0.013359,0.010755]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000183,-0.001036,-0.003267,-0.007658,-0.014734,-0.02467,-0.037448,-0.052961,-0.070671,-0.089616,-0.108754,-0.127124,-0.143921,-0.15853,-0.170527,-0.179673,-0.185894,-0.189251,-0.189914]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.033069,0.067925,0.087756,0.103309,0.12025,0.140648,0.164793,0.192388,0.202229,0.202236,0.197147,0.189657,0.181131,0.172189,0.163093,0.15396,0.14486,0.135861,0.127034,0.118452]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.029875,0.044838,0.037456,0.02988,0.027313,0.028816,0.032398,0.036636,0.022125,0.006687,-0.004588,-0.011477,-0.015133,-0.016742,-0.017163,-0.016932,-0.016356,-0.015602,-0.014762,-0.013884]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001261,-0.002267,-0.005488,-0.011862,-0.021801,-0.034465,-0.04861,-0.063517,-0.077524,-0.089259,-0.097237,-0.101133,-0.101187,-0.097908,-0.091924,-0.083904,-0.074499,-0.06431,-0.053856,-0.043566]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[6.6e-05,0.000162,0.000395,0.000884,0.00173,0.002957,0.004517,0.006338,0.008288,0.010204,0.011902,0.01324,0.014136,0.014564,0.014537,0.014099,0.013315,0.012258,0.011005,0.009631]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3.8e-05,-0.000204,-0.000625,-0.001444,-0.002745,-0.004537,-0.006794,-0.009485,-0.012458,-0.01546,-0.018255,-0.020673,-0.022615,-0.024044,-0.024971,-0.025435,-0.025495,-0.025214,-0.024658]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,2e-06,1.2e-05,3.6e-05,8.4e-05,0.00016,0.000264,0.000396,0.000553,0.000726,0.000901,0.001064,0.001205,0.001318,0.001402,0.001456,0.001483,0.001486,0.00147,0.001437]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001271,-0.002287,-0.005539,-0.011977,-0.022017,-0.034811,-0.049104,-0.064167,-0.078324,-0.090188,-0.098255,-0.102196,-0.102254,-0.098941,-0.092895,-0.08479,-0.075287,-0.064991,-0.054429,-0.044034]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.052361,-0.107732,-0.140268,-0.167465,-0.198632,-0.23681,-0.281881,-0.332917,-0.356021,-0.362861,-0.35987,-0.350808,-0.337818,-0.322186,-0.304774,-0.286239,-0.26713,-0.247917,-0.228994,-0.210684]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.009603,0.022505,0.030524,0.034075,0.035594,0.036899,0.03881,0.04148,0.038757,0.031197,0.021231,0.011007,0.001843,-0.005679,-0.011445,-0.015593,-0.018367,-0.020031,-0.020833,-0.020985]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3.9e-05,-0.000211,-0.000648,-0.001497,-0.002845,-0.004701,-0.00704,-0.009829,-0.01291,-0.016021,-0.018918,-0.021423,-0.023435,-0.024916,-0.025876,-0.026358,-0.02642,-0.026129,-0.025552]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.03841,0.090022,0.122096,0.136301,0.142378,0.147597,0.15524,0.165922,0.15503,0.124787,0.084922,0.04403,0.00737,-0.022716,-0.045779,-0.062372,-0.073467,-0.080124,-0.083331,-0.083939]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.004061,-0.00442,-0.005155,-0.006102,-0.007114,-0.00813,-0.009145,-0.010189,-0.011294,-0.012288,-0.013022,-0.013423,-0.013493,-0.013276,-0.012836,-0.012239,-0.011544,-0.010802,-0.010054,-0.00933]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.009603,-0.022505,-0.030524,-0.034075,-0.035594,-0.036899,-0.03881,-0.04148,-0.038757,-0.031197,-0.021231,-0.011007,-0.001843,0.005679,0.011445,0.015593,0.018367,0.020031,0.020833,0.020985]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.237017,-0.264714,-0.272971,-0.264142,-0.242227,-0.210163,-0.169714,-0.121972,-0.067752,-0.013484,0.035183,0.075143,0.105535,0.126916,0.140531,0.147837,0.150241,0.14898,0.145087,0.139389]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.216535,-0.189295,-0.151031,-0.106338,-0.059359,-0.011988,0.035561,0.083842,0.133572,0.179947,0.218674,0.247656,0.266733,0.276931,0.279797,0.276979,0.269996,0.260142,0.24847,0.235801]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.005667,0.018667,0.042064,0.071857,0.104377,0.137943,0.172358,0.20809,0.245725,0.280802,0.309314,0.329246,0.34035,0.343464,0.339911,0.331118,0.318413,0.302938,0.285633,0.267254]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.073094,0.079564,0.092782,0.109827,0.12806,0.146332,0.164616,0.1834,0.203284,0.221192,0.234392,0.241613,0.242875,0.238975,0.231052,0.220295,0.207784,0.194434,0.180969,0.167939]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0983,-0.247254,-0.35254,-0.446431,-0.558434,-0.698882,-0.868297,-1.064169,-1.181685,-1.238009,-1.256772,-1.251539,-1.230154,-1.197443,-1.156697,-1.110385,-1.060492,-1.008617,-0.956064,-0.903869]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.179146,0.380067,0.517205,0.650631,0.812982,1.016654,1.263275,1.550789,1.711192,1.791993,1.821794,1.817985,1.791246,1.748473,1.694447,1.632715,1.56605,1.496609,1.426114,1.355907]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.169,"GDP_peak_quarter":13,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.3999,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.4872,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_id","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"ID","name":"Indonesia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001889,-0.002517,-0.004098,-0.006851,-0.010816,-0.01576,-0.021313,-0.027175,-0.031168,-0.033304,-0.033557,-0.032125,-0.029314,-0.02547,-0.020948,-0.016083,-0.011179,-0.006493,-0.002233,0.00145]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001915,-0.002401,-0.002213,-0.002509,-0.003587,-0.00532,-0.007451,-0.009758,-0.010977,-0.011704,-0.011992,-0.01178,-0.011035,-0.009785,-0.00811,-0.006128,-0.003975,-0.001785,0.000313,0.002213]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.019548,0.016898,0.008051,0.004223,0.002644,0.001897,0.001439,0.001106,-0.00736,-0.01141,-0.012852,-0.01278,-0.011817,-0.010341,-0.008604,-0.006784,-0.005009,-0.003365,-0.001904,-0.000654]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010947,0.019529,0.021612,0.020456,0.017905,0.014744,0.011316,0.007823,-0.00019,-0.009739,-0.0187,-0.025892,-0.030796,-0.033327,-0.033668,-0.032158,-0.02921,-0.025252,-0.020683,-0.015857]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.161551,0.209292,0.20021,0.204017,0.216062,0.233808,0.255733,0.280887,0.240688,0.208016,0.179686,0.154004,0.130198,0.107993,0.08736,0.068369,0.051118,0.035689,0.022135,0.01047]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000523,-0.001285,-0.002282,-0.00361,-0.005403,-0.007766,-0.010746,-0.014346,-0.018138,-0.021788,-0.025028,-0.027665,-0.029577,-0.030706,-0.03105,-0.030651,-0.029584,-0.027953,-0.025876,-0.023478]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.045611,-0.08137,-0.090049,-0.085231,-0.102082,-0.131855,-0.163574,-0.196941,-0.157978,-0.125657,-0.098984,0.107881,0.128315,0.13886,0.140282,0.133992,0.12171,0.105215,0.086181,0.066073]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.016596,-0.038976,-0.068169,-0.103529,-0.144518,-0.190192,-0.239414,-0.291231,-0.252145,-0.217357,-0.185639,-0.156466,-0.129636,-0.105083,-0.082808,-0.062839,-0.045213,-0.029953,-0.017055,-0.006472]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.015541,0.014149,0.010491,0.005452,-0.000342,-0.006429,-0.012438,-0.018061,-0.023059,-0.026686,-0.028625,-0.028873,-0.027619,-0.025152,-0.021803,-0.017896,-0.01373,-0.009555,-0.005573,-0.001932]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.007557,-0.008658,-0.009961,-0.011162,-0.012126,-0.012812,-0.013219,-0.013362,-0.013266,-0.012728,-0.011693,-0.010207,-0.008374,-0.006317,-0.004165,-0.002033,-1.4e-05,0.001816,0.003407,0.004731]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00089,-0.001055,-0.001451,-0.001913,-0.002359,-0.002752,-0.003077,-0.003324,-0.003492,-0.003466,-0.003206,-0.002727,-0.002072,-0.001298,-0.000464,0.000377,0.001179,0.001905,0.002531,0.003042]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.1e-05,-0.000121,-0.000378,-0.000868,-0.001629,-0.002651,-0.003885,-0.005266,-0.006681,-0.007985,-0.009042,-0.009745,-0.010023,-0.009848,-0.009227,-0.008198,-0.006827,-0.005195,-0.003393]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.002282,0.006114,0.010127,0.01375,0.016765,0.019088,0.020689,0.021574,0.020815,0.018196,0.01389,0.008261,0.001753,-0.005172,-0.012085,-0.018609,-0.024436,-0.029338,-0.033161]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.02171,-0.036962,-0.045434,-0.052515,-0.0609,-0.070839,-0.081699,-0.093016,-0.090136,-0.079786,-0.065067,-0.048537,-0.031933,-0.01639,-0.002616,0.008988,0.01823,0.025084,0.029626,0.032024]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000109,-0.000293,-0.000521,-0.000783,-0.001088,-0.001442,-0.00185,-0.002315,-0.002766,-0.003165,-0.00349,-0.003733,-0.003893,-0.003975,-0.003988,-0.003943,-0.003852,-0.003726,-0.003578,-0.003418]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.015197,-0.025873,-0.031804,-0.03676,-0.04263,-0.049587,-0.057189,-0.065111,-0.063095,-0.05585,-0.045547,-0.033976,-0.022353,-0.011473,-0.001831,0.006291,0.012761,0.017559,0.020738,0.022417]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000307,0.000406,0.00065,0.001067,0.001658,0.002387,0.003199,0.004052,0.004597,0.004848,0.004813,0.004535,0.004064,0.003454,0.002755,0.002016,0.001281,0.000586,-3.9e-05,-0.000573]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3e-05,-0.000173,-0.000545,-0.001261,-0.002388,-0.00392,-0.005804,-0.00795,-0.010205,-0.012358,-0.014207,-0.015582,-0.016365,-0.01649,-0.015944,-0.014764,-0.013022,-0.010823,-0.008288]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.017895,0.023186,0.022278,0.022841,0.024353,0.026511,0.02913,0.032096,0.027736,0.024086,0.02082,0.01778,0.014909,0.012202,0.009671,0.007339,0.005227,0.00335,0.001719,0.000336]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013683,0.011829,0.005636,0.002956,0.001851,0.001328,0.001007,0.000774,-0.005152,-0.007987,-0.008996,-0.008946,-0.008272,-0.007239,-0.006023,-0.004749,-0.003507,-0.002355,-0.001333,-0.000458]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001134,-0.001509,-0.002452,-0.004092,-0.006452,-0.009391,-0.012691,-0.016174,-0.018533,-0.019782,-0.019908,-0.019035,-0.017345,-0.015046,-0.012346,-0.009446,-0.006526,-0.003737,-0.001204,0.000984]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[5.8e-05,0.000116,0.000202,0.000343,0.000558,0.00085,0.001213,0.001632,0.002029,0.002355,0.002577,0.002678,0.002658,0.002527,0.002302,0.002005,0.001659,0.001288,0.000913,0.000555]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.5e-05,-5e-05,-0.000124,-0.000251,-0.000433,-0.000668,-0.000951,-0.00126,-0.001563,-0.001833,-0.002053,-0.002214,-0.002317,-0.002364,-0.002365,-0.002325,-0.002255,-0.002161]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,6e-06,1.2e-05,2.1e-05,3.2e-05,4.6e-05,6e-05,7.5e-05,8.8e-05,9.8e-05,0.000106,0.000111,0.000113,0.000113,0.000111,0.000108,0.000104]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000935,-0.001246,-0.002029,-0.003391,-0.005354,-0.007801,-0.01055,-0.013452,-0.015428,-0.016485,-0.016611,-0.015902,-0.01451,-0.012608,-0.010369,-0.007961,-0.005533,-0.003214,-0.001106,0.000718]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.048938,-0.063362,-0.060819,-0.062175,-0.06597,-0.071419,-0.078083,-0.08569,-0.073177,-0.062575,-0.053137,-0.044517,-0.036568,-0.029232,-0.022495,-0.016364,-0.010855,-0.005985,-0.00177,0.001787]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002737,0.004882,0.005403,0.005114,0.004476,0.003686,0.002829,0.001956,-4.7e-05,-0.002435,-0.004675,-0.006473,-0.007699,-0.008332,-0.008417,-0.00804,-0.007303,-0.006313,-0.005171,-0.003964]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.5e-05,-4.9e-05,-0.000123,-0.000248,-0.000427,-0.000659,-0.000938,-0.001243,-0.001542,-0.001809,-0.002026,-0.002185,-0.002286,-0.002333,-0.002333,-0.002294,-0.002225,-0.002132]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010947,0.019529,0.021612,0.020456,0.017905,0.014744,0.011316,0.007823,-0.00019,-0.009739,-0.0187,-0.025892,-0.030796,-0.033327,-0.033668,-0.032158,-0.02921,-0.025252,-0.020683,-0.015857]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000183,-0.000274,-0.000437,-0.000617,-0.000787,-0.000936,-0.001057,-0.001151,-0.001215,-0.001212,-0.001129,-0.000972,-0.000754,-0.000496,-0.000217,6.4e-05,0.000334,0.000578,0.000789,0.000962]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002737,-0.004882,-0.005403,-0.005114,-0.004476,-0.003686,-0.002829,-0.001956,4.7e-05,0.002435,0.004675,0.006473,0.007699,0.008332,0.008417,0.00804,0.007303,0.006313,0.005171,0.003964]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.029528,-0.026884,-0.019932,-0.010358,0.000649,0.012216,0.023632,0.034316,0.043811,0.050704,0.054388,0.054859,0.052476,0.04779,0.041426,0.034003,0.026087,0.018155,0.010589,0.003671]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.034007,0.038959,0.044823,0.050229,0.054567,0.057653,0.059485,0.060131,0.059697,0.057277,0.052619,0.045932,0.037681,0.028428,0.018745,0.009146,6.4e-05,-0.008171,-0.015334,-0.02129]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.007301,0.008654,0.011897,0.015685,0.019342,0.022569,0.02523,0.027259,0.028633,0.028418,0.02629,0.022363,0.016994,0.010646,0.003802,-0.003093,-0.009664,-0.015619,-0.020752,-0.024942]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.00329,0.004937,0.007867,0.011105,0.014166,0.016839,0.019034,0.020712,0.021863,0.02181,0.020323,0.017491,0.01358,0.008935,0.003912,-0.00116,-0.006003,-0.0104,-0.0142,-0.01731]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0232,-0.003577,0.021877,0.032668,0.035066,0.033173,0.029463,0.025246,0.034597,0.035271,0.032024,0.02775,0.023967,0.021311,0.019902,0.019589,0.020098,0.021125,0.022383,0.023628]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.167911,0.233221,0.256589,0.31045,0.392089,0.500168,0.633823,0.792438,0.850291,0.887513,0.906723,0.911012,0.903496,0.887016,0.864015,0.83652,0.806183,0.774279,0.741809,0.709531]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0336,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0114,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2912,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_tr","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"TR","name":"Turkey"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002747,-0.003848,-0.006733,-0.011671,-0.018492,-0.026651,-0.035482,-0.044454,-0.050335,-0.053115,-0.05272,-0.049419,-0.043704,-0.036198,-0.02758,-0.018516,-0.009611,-0.001367,0.005836,0.011746]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003248,-0.003456,-0.00305,-0.004046,-0.006376,-0.00956,-0.013138,-0.016769,-0.018434,-0.019511,-0.019832,-0.019114,-0.017278,-0.014429,-0.010801,-0.006689,-0.002406,0.001754,0.005546,0.008779]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.019315,0.016069,0.009389,0.00736,0.006259,0.005198,0.004101,0.003063,-0.005818,-0.009864,-0.011817,-0.01259,-0.012511,-0.01177,-0.01054,-0.008986,-0.00726,-0.005491,-0.003782,-0.00221]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.020087,0.030805,0.030433,0.027121,0.022925,0.018171,0.013035,0.007808,-0.005488,-0.01916,-0.030192,-0.03766,-0.041494,-0.042029,-0.039814,-0.035503,-0.029767,-0.023237,-0.016457,-0.009868]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.114969,0.152835,0.162219,0.180834,0.200922,0.220759,0.240156,0.259262,0.230727,0.20588,0.180854,0.155179,0.129383,0.104176,0.080212,0.058026,0.038023,0.020468,0.005497,-0.006868]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000843,-0.002017,-0.003561,-0.005714,-0.008713,-0.0127,-0.017702,-0.023669,-0.029876,-0.035805,-0.041026,-0.045199,-0.04809,-0.049572,-0.049625,-0.048321,-0.04581,-0.042298,-0.038028,-0.033253]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.062773,-0.096267,-0.095103,-0.084753,-0.073679,-0.095167,-0.118061,-0.142144,-0.114022,-0.090694,0.094349,0.117686,0.12967,0.131341,0.124419,0.110946,0.093023,0.072617,0.05143,0.030838]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0271,-0.065942,-0.116412,-0.177078,-0.246565,-0.323118,-0.404898,-0.490384,-0.418084,-0.354525,-0.297513,-0.245893,-0.199072,-0.156784,-0.11895,-0.085584,-0.056721,-0.032353,-0.012397,0.003325]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.021298,0.018101,0.011856,0.004278,-0.00382,-0.011872,-0.019397,-0.026004,-0.031418,-0.034452,-0.034962,-0.033245,-0.029771,-0.02506,-0.019616,-0.013893,-0.00827,-0.00304,0.00159,0.005492]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.008014,-0.009209,-0.010673,-0.011896,-0.012778,-0.013321,-0.013539,-0.013453,-0.013091,-0.012078,-0.010416,-0.008253,-0.005778,-0.003179,-0.000625,0.001748,0.003839,0.005579,0.006936,0.007903]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000241,-0.000231,-0.000985,-0.001744,-0.002429,-0.003018,-0.003493,-0.003844,-0.004067,-0.003959,-0.003509,-0.002783,-0.001871,-0.00086,0.000164,0.001136,0.002001,0.002724,0.003286,0.003681]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6.9e-05,-0.000369,-0.001082,-0.002342,-0.004179,-0.006515,-0.009203,-0.012061,-0.01483,-0.017198,-0.018877,-0.01965,-0.019393,-0.018081,-0.015783,-0.012642,-0.008857,-0.00466,-0.000288]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.002364,0.006216,0.010357,0.014341,0.01789,0.020779,0.022829,0.023919,0.02303,0.019981,0.01496,0.008345,0.000618,-0.007688,-0.01604,-0.023942,-0.030968,-0.036779,-0.041137]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.037823,-0.058074,-0.067336,-0.078163,-0.092711,-0.109579,-0.127064,-0.144265,-0.137471,-0.121448,-0.100485,-0.077073,-0.052912,-0.029366,-0.007549,0.011679,0.027708,0.040191,0.049006,0.054247]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000189,-0.000479,-0.000816,-0.001207,-0.001671,-0.002218,-0.002854,-0.003575,-0.004262,-0.00487,-0.005372,-0.005757,-0.006022,-0.006169,-0.006207,-0.006148,-0.00601,-0.005809,-0.005564,-0.005292]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.026476,-0.040652,-0.047135,-0.054714,-0.064898,-0.076705,-0.088945,-0.100985,-0.09623,-0.085014,-0.070339,-0.053951,-0.037038,-0.020556,-0.005284,0.008175,0.019396,0.028134,0.034304,0.037973]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000481,0.000673,0.001176,0.002036,0.003222,0.004639,0.006172,0.007729,0.008744,0.009218,0.009139,0.008556,0.007555,0.006244,0.004741,0.003162,0.001612,0.000179,-0.001073,-0.002099]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.2e-05,-0.000229,-0.000685,-0.001516,-0.002772,-0.004439,-0.006455,-0.008724,-0.011098,-0.013375,-0.015353,-0.016854,-0.017747,-0.017954,-0.017455,-0.01628,-0.014505,-0.012236,-0.0096]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.016326,0.021856,0.023943,0.028144,0.033553,0.039798,0.046527,0.053485,0.053634,0.053743,0.052723,0.050247,0.046414,0.041529,0.035976,0.030134,0.024332,0.018831,0.013818,0.00941]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.01352,0.011248,0.006573,0.005152,0.004381,0.003638,0.00287,0.002144,-0.004073,-0.006905,-0.008272,-0.008813,-0.008758,-0.008239,-0.007378,-0.00629,-0.005082,-0.003844,-0.002647,-0.001547]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001648,-0.002307,-0.004031,-0.006979,-0.011046,-0.015905,-0.021161,-0.026498,-0.029979,-0.031603,-0.031333,-0.029334,-0.025902,-0.021407,-0.016255,-0.010842,-0.005528,-0.000613,0.003679,0.007196]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000187,0.000399,0.00075,0.001343,0.00224,0.003449,0.004933,0.006625,0.008258,0.009637,0.010614,0.0111,0.011063,0.010525,0.009544,0.008212,0.006634,0.004923,0.003186,0.001518]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.1e-05,-3.9e-05,-0.0001,-0.000206,-0.000359,-0.000556,-0.000791,-0.001042,-0.001278,-0.001473,-0.001615,-0.001701,-0.001735,-0.001727,-0.001684,-0.001624,-0.001554,-0.001476]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,9e-06,1.8e-05,3.1e-05,4.8e-05,6.9e-05,9.1e-05,0.000111,0.000128,0.00014,0.000148,0.000151,0.00015,0.000147,0.000141,0.000135,0.000128]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001662,-0.002328,-0.004074,-0.007061,-0.011188,-0.016124,-0.021467,-0.026895,-0.030453,-0.032134,-0.031896,-0.029899,-0.026441,-0.0219,-0.016686,-0.011202,-0.005815,-0.000827,0.003531,0.007106]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.03526,-0.046866,-0.05025,-0.056686,-0.063716,-0.070707,-0.07754,-0.084212,-0.075672,-0.067502,-0.05876,-0.04951,-0.040054,-0.030711,-0.021762,-0.013444,-0.00595,0.000583,0.006065,0.010463]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005022,0.007701,0.007608,0.00678,0.005731,0.004543,0.003259,0.001952,-0.001372,-0.00479,-0.007548,-0.009415,-0.010374,-0.010507,-0.009954,-0.008876,-0.007442,-0.005809,-0.004114,-0.002467]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2e-06,-1.3e-05,-4.4e-05,-0.000114,-0.000235,-0.000409,-0.000633,-0.000901,-0.001187,-0.001456,-0.001678,-0.00184,-0.001938,-0.001977,-0.001967,-0.001919,-0.00185,-0.00177,-0.001681]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.020087,0.030805,0.030433,0.027121,0.022925,0.018171,0.013035,0.007808,-0.005488,-0.01916,-0.030192,-0.03766,-0.041494,-0.042029,-0.039814,-0.035503,-0.029767,-0.023237,-0.016457,-0.009868]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-5.3e-05,-0.00022,-0.000476,-0.000729,-0.000955,-0.001145,-0.001295,-0.001403,-0.001467,-0.00142,-0.001259,-0.001007,-0.000692,-0.000345,6e-06,0.000338,0.000635,0.000883,0.001077,0.001214]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005022,-0.007701,-0.007608,-0.00678,-0.005731,-0.004543,-0.003259,-0.001952,0.001372,0.00479,0.007548,0.009415,0.010374,0.010507,0.009954,0.008876,0.007442,0.005809,0.004114,0.002467]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.040467,-0.034393,-0.022526,-0.008127,0.007258,0.022558,0.036855,0.049407,0.059693,0.06546,0.066428,0.063166,0.056566,0.047613,0.03727,0.026397,0.015713,0.005776,-0.003021,-0.010434]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.036064,0.041439,0.048027,0.053532,0.057501,0.059943,0.060926,0.060538,0.05891,0.05435,0.04687,0.037136,0.026,0.014308,0.002813,-0.007867,-0.017274,-0.025107,-0.031213,-0.035563]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001975,0.00189,0.008081,0.014299,0.019921,0.024746,0.028643,0.03152,0.033347,0.03246,0.028774,0.022825,0.015338,0.007056,-0.001348,-0.009312,-0.016406,-0.022339,-0.026949,-0.030184]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000951,0.003961,0.008575,0.01313,0.017186,0.020609,0.023318,0.025254,0.026405,0.025561,0.022667,0.018118,0.012451,0.00621,-0.000109,-0.006093,-0.011427,-0.015898,-0.019386,-0.021854]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.026716,-0.008347,0.008995,0.012667,0.013283,0.014574,0.017961,0.023957,0.047831,0.06291,0.075285,0.086975,0.098477,0.109717,0.120413,0.13023,0.138858,0.146045,0.151634,0.155559]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.121328,0.176764,0.218597,0.287268,0.376949,0.487119,0.618245,0.770814,0.84033,0.885377,0.90789,0.912187,0.902682,0.883199,0.856867,0.826177,0.793088,0.759058,0.725171,0.692192]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0531,"GDP_peak_quarter":10,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0307,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.4904,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_sa","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"SA","name":"Saudi Arabia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001162,-0.00202,-0.004965,-0.011405,-0.022568,-0.038512,-0.058488,-0.081902,-0.107214,-0.132035,-0.152872,-0.167671,-0.17581,-0.177674,-0.174206,-0.16658,-0.155981,-0.14348,-0.129982,-0.11621]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007603,-0.016793,-0.026446,-0.036787,-0.048557,-0.062117,-0.07736,-0.094128,-0.04622,-0.043047,-0.054989,-0.069522,-0.081623,-0.089646,-0.093468,-0.09362,-0.090866,-0.085992,-0.079709,-0.072618]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000509,-0.001779,-0.003925,-0.006971,-0.010888,-0.015557,-0.020797,-0.026447,-0.027806,-0.026791,-0.024564,-0.02177,-0.018769,-0.015769,-0.012895,-0.010224,-0.0078,-0.005645,-0.003765,-0.002152]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.05,0.14,0.262,0.4096,0.57768,0.762144,0.959715,1.167772,0.934218,0.747374,0.597899,0.478319,0.382656,0.306124,0.2449,0.19592,0.156736,0.125389,0.100311,0.080249]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004522,-0.016993,-0.03997,-0.075322,-0.124377,-0.188037,-0.266868,-0.361174,-0.430358,-0.47971,-0.513449,-0.534943,-0.546873,-0.551375,-0.550149,-0.544545,-0.535634,-0.524266,-0.511111,-0.4967]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001172,-0.004176,-0.009846,-0.01905,-0.032688,-0.051526,-0.076094,-0.106737,-0.134598,-0.160718,-0.185331,-0.208185,-0.228828,-0.246808,-0.261774,-0.273527,-0.282016,-0.287326,-0.289646,-0.289242]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.25,-0.7,-1.31,-2.048,-2.8884,-3.81072,-4.798576,-5.838861,-4.671089,-3.736871,-2.989497,-2.391597,-1.913278,-1.530622,-1.224498,-0.979598,-0.783679,-0.626943,-0.501554,-0.401243]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014262,-0.033532,-0.064829,-0.112961,-0.182373,-0.272942,-0.381376,-0.50504,-0.570926,-0.640857,-0.699991,-0.739428,-0.756074,-0.750888,-0.727119,-0.688968,-0.640746,-0.586364,-0.529129,-0.471667]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.541114,0.651641,0.727563,0.76955,0.77814,0.753762,0.69676,0.607408,0.485926,0.388741,0.310993,0.248794,0.199035,0.159228,0.127383,0.101906,0.081525,0.06522,0.052176,0.041741]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.43395,0.43466,0.430228,0.419183,0.400346,0.372777,0.335721,0.288577,0.230862,0.184689,0.147752,0.118201,0.094561,0.075649,0.060519,0.048415,0.038732,0.030986,0.024789,0.019831]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.224912,0.223691,0.220225,0.213716,0.203523,0.189135,0.170141,0.146215,0.117092,0.093812,0.075207,0.06034,0.048465,0.038981,0.03141,0.025368,0.020549,0.016707,0.013646,0.011208]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000131,-0.000775,-0.002563,-0.006287,-0.012604,-0.021872,-0.034249,-0.049792,-0.067938,-0.087386,-0.106579,-0.124087,-0.138823,-0.150107,-0.157653,-0.161489,-0.161883,-0.159254,-0.154106]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.3e-05,-0.000239,-0.000778,-0.001938,-0.004075,-0.007606,-0.012982,-0.020672,-0.03078,-0.043201,-0.057706,-0.07399,-0.091703,-0.110468,-0.129901,-0.149623,-0.169276,-0.188527,-0.20708]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.078254,-0.216507,-0.409823,-0.652709,-0.940742,-1.266774,-1.622996,-2.003971,-1.726306,-1.514952,-1.345032,-1.201029,-1.073665,-0.95784,-0.851012,-0.752091,-0.660732,-0.576876,-0.500537,-0.431671]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000391,-0.001474,-0.003523,-0.006786,-0.01149,-0.017824,-0.025939,-0.035959,-0.04459,-0.052165,-0.05889,-0.064895,-0.070264,-0.075053,-0.079308,-0.083069,-0.086372,-0.089257,-0.091759,-0.093918]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.054778,-0.151555,-0.286876,-0.456896,-0.65852,-0.886742,-1.136097,-1.40278,-1.208414,-1.060467,-0.941523,-0.84072,-0.751566,-0.670488,-0.595708,-0.526464,-0.462513,-0.403813,-0.350376,-0.30217]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000218,0.000104,-0.000414,-0.00158,-0.003539,-0.006108,-0.008881,-0.011516,-0.014037,-0.016062,-0.017173,-0.017186,-0.016182,-0.014401,-0.012131,-0.009646,-0.007167,-0.004852,-0.002801,-0.001064]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8.5e-05,-0.000521,-0.001778,-0.004506,-0.009361,-0.016881,-0.027517,-0.041642,-0.059239,-0.079736,-0.102238,-0.12575,-0.149335,-0.172199,-0.19373,-0.213495,-0.231227,-0.246795,-0.260179]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000478,-0.002631,-0.007839,-0.017433,-0.032373,-0.052343,-0.076161,-0.102831,-0.126771,-0.146859,-0.161324,-0.169404,-0.171413,-0.168336,-0.161439,-0.151977,-0.14105,-0.129532,-0.118073,-0.107121]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000356,-0.001246,-0.002747,-0.00488,-0.007622,-0.01089,-0.014558,-0.018513,-0.019464,-0.018754,-0.017195,-0.015239,-0.013139,-0.011038,-0.009026,-0.007157,-0.00546,-0.003952,-0.002635,-0.001507]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000697,-0.001211,-0.002975,-0.006832,-0.013517,-0.023066,-0.035032,-0.049058,-0.064223,-0.079094,-0.09158,-0.10045,-0.105331,-0.106453,-0.104382,-0.099818,-0.093472,-0.085986,-0.077902,-0.069653]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000117,0.000292,0.000721,0.001694,0.003557,0.00658,0.010892,0.016534,0.023383,0.031104,0.039093,0.04668,0.053293,0.058532,0.062187,0.064215,0.064701,0.063819,0.061792,0.058862]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.9e-05,-0.000111,-0.000365,-0.000893,-0.001784,-0.003073,-0.00476,-0.006822,-0.00916,-0.011603,-0.013968,-0.016101,-0.0179,-0.019306,-0.020302,-0.020903,-0.021142,-0.021063,-0.020718]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,2e-06,8e-06,1.9e-05,3.7e-05,6.4e-05,0.0001,0.000143,0.000192,0.000243,0.000292,0.000337,0.000374,0.000404,0.000425,0.000437,0.000442,0.000441,0.000433]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000511,-0.000889,-0.002185,-0.005018,-0.00993,-0.016945,-0.025735,-0.036037,-0.047174,-0.058096,-0.067264,-0.073775,-0.077357,-0.078176,-0.076651,-0.073295,-0.068632,-0.063131,-0.057192,-0.051132]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.001182,0.004828,0.011407,0.021332,0.03486,0.052232,0.073667,0.099289,0.117118,0.129001,0.136599,0.141161,0.143582,0.144482,0.144284,0.143277,0.141658,0.139565,0.137094,0.134318]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0125,0.035,0.0655,0.1024,0.14442,0.190536,0.239929,0.291943,0.233554,0.186844,0.149475,0.11958,0.095664,0.076531,0.061225,0.04898,0.039184,0.031347,0.025078,0.020062]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.2e-05,-0.000131,-0.000431,-0.001056,-0.002109,-0.003634,-0.005628,-0.008065,-0.010831,-0.013719,-0.016515,-0.019037,-0.021164,-0.022826,-0.024005,-0.024715,-0.024997,-0.024904,-0.024496]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.05,0.14,0.262,0.4096,0.57768,0.762144,0.959715,1.167772,0.934218,0.747374,0.597899,0.478319,0.382656,0.306124,0.2449,0.19592,0.156736,0.125389,0.100311,0.080249]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.075673,0.075256,0.07409,0.071908,0.068495,0.063682,0.057332,0.049335,0.039605,0.031821,0.025594,0.020613,0.016628,0.01344,0.01089,0.008851,0.007219,0.005913,0.004869,0.004033]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0125,-0.035,-0.0655,-0.1024,-0.14442,-0.190536,-0.239929,-0.291943,-0.233554,-0.186844,-0.149475,-0.11958,-0.095664,-0.076531,-0.061225,-0.04898,-0.039184,-0.031347,-0.025078,-0.020062]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.028116,-1.238118,-1.38237,-1.462146,-1.478466,-1.432148,-1.323844,-1.154075,-0.92326,-0.738608,-0.590886,-0.472709,-0.378167,-0.302534,-0.242027,-0.193622,-0.154897,-0.123918,-0.099134,-0.079307]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.952776,-1.955971,-1.936027,-1.886321,-1.801557,-1.677496,-1.510747,-1.298597,-1.038878,-0.831102,-0.664882,-0.531905,-0.425524,-0.340419,-0.272336,-0.217868,-0.174295,-0.139436,-0.111549,-0.089239]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.844275,-1.834267,-1.805847,-1.752467,-1.668885,-1.550903,-1.395159,-1.198962,-0.960155,-0.769261,-0.616696,-0.494791,-0.39741,-0.319642,-0.257559,-0.208017,-0.1685,-0.136996,-0.111894,-0.091907]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-1.362109,-1.354616,-1.333626,-1.294339,-1.232913,-1.146278,-1.031975,-0.888037,-0.712893,-0.572781,-0.460697,-0.371034,-0.299307,-0.241928,-0.196028,-0.159309,-0.129936,-0.106438,-0.087639,-0.0726]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.11827,0.192052,0.234247,0.284162,0.345377,0.42055,0.511341,0.618575,0.661615,0.683366,0.689909,0.685838,0.674514,0.658344,0.639046,0.617842,0.595598,0.572937,0.550299,0.527995]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.001837,0.006936,0.016409,0.031112,0.05165,0.078322,0.111222,0.150377,0.179245,0.199787,0.213587,0.222065,0.226426,0.227647,0.226506,0.223606,0.219431,0.214324,0.208562,0.20236]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.1777,"GDP_peak_quarter":14,"CPI_3yr_pp":-0.1878,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.7561,"equity_peak_quarter":13},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_ar","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"AR","name":"Argentina"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003435,-0.005164,-0.009855,-0.017739,-0.028176,-0.040025,-0.052133,-0.0637,-0.070705,-0.073109,-0.070671,-0.063636,-0.052729,-0.039018,-0.023738,-0.008121,0.006734,0.019948,0.030898,0.039227]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00385,-0.003821,-0.0035,-0.005319,-0.008966,-0.013609,-0.018515,-0.023182,-0.025291,-0.02639,-0.026181,-0.024272,-0.020592,-0.015378,-0.009069,-0.002193,0.00471,0.011163,0.016782,0.021301]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.019476,0.014351,0.006469,0.003407,0.00149,-0.000159,-0.001639,-0.002893,-0.011173,-0.014534,-0.01566,-0.015394,-0.014089,-0.012001,-0.009386,-0.00649,-0.003533,-0.0007,0.001867,0.004069]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.023371,0.03193,0.026584,0.01836,0.009955,0.001743,-0.006102,-0.013278,-0.028237,-0.041831,-0.05095,-0.054954,-0.054121,-0.049148,-0.04096,-0.03058,-0.019023,-0.007212,0.004079,0.014253]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.185484,0.242571,0.247937,0.261462,0.277237,0.294589,0.313604,0.334331,0.287127,0.244573,0.203317,0.16308,0.124449,0.088163,0.054894,0.025191,-0.000542,-0.022074,-0.039342,-0.052439]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0011,-0.002596,-0.004559,-0.007363,-0.011328,-0.016589,-0.0231,-0.03071,-0.03846,-0.045683,-0.051801,-0.056329,-0.058918,-0.059389,-0.057733,-0.054107,-0.048791,-0.042159,-0.03463,-0.026632]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.058428,-0.079824,-0.06646,-0.053371,-0.073038,-0.09434,-0.117034,-0.140908,-0.113031,0.104577,0.127376,0.137386,0.135303,0.12287,0.1024,0.07645,0.047558,0.01803,-0.010199,-0.035633]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.03113,-0.076151,-0.135742,-0.208116,-0.291017,-0.381665,-0.477406,-0.576248,-0.493471,-0.419343,-0.351099,-0.287288,-0.227435,-0.171737,-0.120767,-0.07522,-0.035722,-0.002702,0.023676,0.043528]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.01157,0.005119,-0.004101,-0.013792,-0.022957,-0.030966,-0.037328,-0.041685,-0.043848,-0.042696,-0.038369,-0.03149,-0.022839,-0.013212,-0.003347,0.006121,0.014688,0.021996,0.027824,0.03208]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.013306,-0.01333,-0.013438,-0.013028,-0.012048,-0.010574,-0.00869,-0.006479,-0.004023,-0.000972,0.00258,0.006395,0.010211,0.013789,0.016932,0.01949,0.021371,0.022535,0.022987,0.022772]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00433,0.003665,0.002761,0.001972,0.001376,0.000983,0.000793,0.000798,0.000986,0.001554,0.002467,0.003617,0.004875,0.00612,0.007251,0.008185,0.008869,0.009272,0.009388,0.009229]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.000149,-0.000774,-0.002197,-0.004593,-0.007925,-0.011971,-0.016413,-0.020902,-0.025005,-0.028202,-0.030002,-0.030042,-0.028135,-0.024295,-0.018717,-0.01174,-0.003798,0.004633,0.013077]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.003789,0.009118,0.013707,0.016802,0.018074,0.017372,0.014689,0.010155,0.002606,-0.007643,-0.019729,-0.032572,-0.045048,-0.056106,-0.064851,-0.070612,-0.072969,-0.071762,-0.067072]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.044673,-0.064077,-0.072127,-0.085003,-0.104081,-0.126229,-0.148484,-0.16942,-0.161884,-0.143494,-0.118052,-0.087709,-0.05455,-0.020857,0.011145,0.039555,0.062959,0.080503,0.091871,0.09722]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000223,-0.000544,-0.000904,-0.001329,-0.00185,-0.002481,-0.003223,-0.00407,-0.00488,-0.005597,-0.006188,-0.006626,-0.006899,-0.007003,-0.006947,-0.00675,-0.006435,-0.006032,-0.005573,-0.005087]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.031271,-0.044854,-0.050489,-0.059502,-0.072856,-0.08836,-0.103939,-0.118594,-0.113319,-0.100445,-0.082636,-0.061396,-0.038185,-0.0146,0.007801,0.027688,0.044071,0.056352,0.06431,0.068054]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000665,0.000985,0.001832,0.003218,0.004992,0.006937,0.008861,0.010636,0.011502,0.011505,0.010665,0.009068,0.006866,0.004252,0.001441,-0.001356,-0.003955,-0.006209,-0.008017,-0.009325]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.9e-05,-0.000312,-0.000912,-0.00197,-0.003524,-0.005539,-0.007928,-0.010579,-0.013326,-0.015948,-0.018205,-0.019882,-0.020815,-0.020905,-0.020124,-0.018512,-0.01616,-0.013202,-0.009792]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.014066,0.01832,0.018513,0.018918,0.01888,0.018328,0.017416,0.016303,0.009721,0.003467,-0.002264,-0.007206,-0.011218,-0.014281,-0.016454,-0.017831,-0.018523,-0.018639,-0.01828,-0.017542]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013633,0.010045,0.004528,0.002385,0.001043,-0.000111,-0.001148,-0.002025,-0.007821,-0.010174,-0.010962,-0.010776,-0.009862,-0.008401,-0.00657,-0.004543,-0.002473,-0.00049,0.001307,0.002848]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002061,-0.003097,-0.005907,-0.010628,-0.016873,-0.023958,-0.031195,-0.038104,-0.042276,-0.043689,-0.042204,-0.037971,-0.031424,-0.023203,-0.014047,-0.004694,0.0042,0.012108,0.018658,0.023636]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000223,0.000489,0.000978,0.001828,0.003093,0.004737,0.00666,0.008741,0.010636,0.012103,0.01296,0.013097,0.012484,0.01117,0.00927,0.006942,0.004367,0.001728,-0.000935,-0.003643]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-4.5e-05,-0.000148,-0.000362,-0.00072,-0.001233,-0.001896,-0.002697,-0.003589,-0.004494,-0.005339,-0.00607,-0.006657,-0.007086,-0.007359,-0.007487,-0.007488,-0.007382,-0.007187]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,2e-06,1.3e-05,4.3e-05,0.000105,0.00021,0.000359,0.000552,0.000786,0.001045,0.001309,0.001555,0.001768,0.001939,0.002064,0.002143,0.002181,0.002181,0.00215,0.002093]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001965,-0.002954,-0.005637,-0.010147,-0.016117,-0.022894,-0.02982,-0.036436,-0.040443,-0.041819,-0.040424,-0.0364,-0.030161,-0.022318,-0.013578,-0.004645,0.003852,0.01141,0.017674,0.022438]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.056332,-0.07376,-0.076137,-0.081392,-0.087564,-0.094251,-0.101335,-0.108744,-0.094822,-0.081469,-0.067803,-0.053879,-0.040025,-0.026626,-0.014056,-0.002648,0.00733,0.015688,0.022326,0.02723]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005843,0.007982,0.006646,0.00459,0.002489,0.000436,-0.001525,-0.003319,-0.007059,-0.010458,-0.012738,-0.013739,-0.01353,-0.012287,-0.01024,-0.007645,-0.004756,-0.001803,0.00102,0.003563]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-2.2e-05,-7.2e-05,-0.000176,-0.000349,-0.000598,-0.00092,-0.001309,-0.001742,-0.002181,-0.002592,-0.002947,-0.003231,-0.00344,-0.003572,-0.003635,-0.003635,-0.003583,-0.003489]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.023371,0.03193,0.026584,0.01836,0.009955,0.001743,-0.006102,-0.013278,-0.028237,-0.041831,-0.05095,-0.054954,-0.054121,-0.049148,-0.04096,-0.03058,-0.019023,-0.007212,0.004079,0.014253]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00066,0.000464,0.000197,-2.5e-05,-0.000178,-0.000262,-0.000276,-0.000225,-0.000115,0.000121,0.00047,0.000895,0.001354,0.001805,0.002215,0.002558,0.002813,0.002972,0.003033,0.002999]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005843,-0.007982,-0.006646,-0.00459,-0.002489,-0.000436,0.001525,0.003319,0.007059,0.010458,0.012738,0.013739,0.01353,0.012287,0.01024,0.007645,0.004756,0.001803,-0.00102,-0.003563]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.021984,-0.009727,0.007791,0.026206,0.043618,0.058836,0.070923,0.079201,0.083311,0.081122,0.0729,0.059831,0.043394,0.025102,0.006359,-0.011629,-0.027907,-0.041792,-0.052866,-0.060953]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.059877,0.059984,0.06047,0.058626,0.054216,0.047582,0.039105,0.029154,0.018104,0.004376,-0.011609,-0.028776,-0.04595,-0.062053,-0.076193,-0.087705,-0.096171,-0.101407,-0.10344,-0.102475]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.035503,-0.030053,-0.02264,-0.016171,-0.011286,-0.008064,-0.006499,-0.006546,-0.008088,-0.012739,-0.020232,-0.029657,-0.039972,-0.050188,-0.059458,-0.067121,-0.072727,-0.076032,-0.076981,-0.075676]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.011874,-0.008353,-0.003551,0.000448,0.00321,0.004709,0.004973,0.004058,0.002064,-0.002177,-0.008459,-0.01611,-0.024364,-0.032494,-0.039879,-0.046035,-0.050634,-0.053499,-0.054591,-0.053988]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.073653,-0.057365,-0.031671,-0.021904,-0.016721,-0.012412,-0.007796,-0.002618,0.031169,0.053395,0.070945,0.08634,0.100306,0.112827,0.123596,0.132238,0.138423,0.141946,0.142745,0.140895]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.191844,0.2665,0.304316,0.367896,0.453265,0.560949,0.691693,0.845883,0.89673,0.92407,0.930354,0.920088,0.897748,0.867185,0.831549,0.793342,0.754523,0.716516,0.680331,0.646621]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0731,"GDP_peak_quarter":10,"CPI_3yr_pp":-0.0163,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.5762,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_za","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"ZA","name":"South Africa"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001832,-0.002448,-0.004065,-0.007062,-0.011651,-0.017635,-0.024574,-0.032076,-0.037934,-0.041973,-0.044,-0.044138,-0.042637,-0.039794,-0.035917,-0.031318,-0.026298,-0.021136,-0.016079,-0.011328]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001557,-0.002671,-0.003192,-0.003744,-0.004937,-0.006959,-0.009669,-0.012824,-0.015169,-0.016771,-0.017731,-0.018129,-0.017987,-0.017307,-0.016113,-0.014461,-0.012449,-0.010197,-0.007836,-0.005493]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.010764,0.017025,0.015891,0.013132,0.010936,0.009748,0.009404,0.009621,0.004868,-0.000525,-0.004811,-0.007576,-0.008988,-0.00939,-0.009124,-0.008463,-0.007602,-0.006673,-0.005759,-0.004906]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008073,0.019668,0.028217,0.032559,0.033718,0.033071,0.031712,0.030338,0.02534,0.016903,0.006764,-0.003252,-0.011855,-0.018378,-0.022662,-0.024877,-0.025369,-0.024547,-0.022809,-0.02051]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.064072,0.13317,0.178027,0.211953,0.243756,0.278014,0.31647,0.359478,0.375279,0.37377,0.361373,0.342383,0.319632,0.294983,0.269679,0.244565,0.220223,0.197053,0.175327,0.155215]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000486,-0.001314,-0.002545,-0.00427,-0.006629,-0.009755,-0.013729,-0.01858,-0.023896,-0.029274,-0.03435,-0.038848,-0.042584,-0.045451,-0.047399,-0.048429,-0.04858,-0.047922,-0.04655,-0.044578]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.033638,-0.081952,-0.11757,-0.135663,-0.14049,-0.151164,-0.187528,-0.225782,-0.181113,-0.144058,-0.113479,-0.088495,-0.068328,0.076574,0.094424,0.103655,0.105706,0.102279,0.095039,0.085458]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.023351,-0.052213,-0.09121,-0.140489,-0.200116,-0.268717,-0.344038,-0.424074,-0.388577,-0.355827,-0.323593,-0.291223,-0.258702,-0.226262,-0.194252,-0.163103,-0.133307,-0.105357,-0.079711,-0.056739]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.027169,0.029328,0.028982,0.026301,0.021824,0.016128,0.009697,0.0029,-0.004002,-0.010341,-0.015522,-0.019219,-0.021376,-0.022136,-0.021754,-0.020521,-0.018725,-0.016615,-0.014393,-0.012213]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004605,0.003305,0.001555,-0.000496,-0.002649,-0.004759,-0.006752,-0.008605,-0.010335,-0.011771,-0.012754,-0.013208,-0.013146,-0.012644,-0.011812,-0.010762,-0.009601,-0.008416,-0.007271,-0.006213]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000332,-0.000574,-0.001104,-0.001847,-0.002696,-0.003571,-0.004429,-0.005249,-0.006033,-0.00669,-0.007134,-0.007322,-0.007258,-0.006978,-0.006533,-0.00598,-0.005371,-0.004749,-0.004147,-0.003588]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3.5e-05,-0.000208,-0.000684,-0.001646,-0.003206,-0.005366,-0.008049,-0.011134,-0.014395,-0.017541,-0.020303,-0.022475,-0.023917,-0.024556,-0.024383,-0.023441,-0.021819,-0.019638,-0.01704]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00149,0.005017,0.009959,0.015558,0.021256,0.026729,0.031826,0.036504,0.040045,0.041817,0.041504,0.039107,0.034863,0.029144,0.022377,0.014986,0.007361,-0.000166,-0.007326]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01724,-0.036963,-0.055286,-0.071507,-0.087578,-0.10462,-0.12281,-0.142149,-0.149241,-0.145926,-0.13428,-0.117702,-0.098962,-0.079919,-0.061683,-0.044856,-0.029749,-0.016498,-0.005154,0.004295]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-8.6e-05,-0.000271,-0.000547,-0.000905,-0.001343,-0.001866,-0.00248,-0.003191,-0.003937,-0.004667,-0.005338,-0.005927,-0.006421,-0.006821,-0.007129,-0.007354,-0.007502,-0.007585,-0.007611,-0.007589]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.012068,-0.025874,-0.0387,-0.050055,-0.061305,-0.073234,-0.085967,-0.099504,-0.104468,-0.102148,-0.093996,-0.082392,-0.069273,-0.055944,-0.043178,-0.031399,-0.020824,-0.011549,-0.003608,0.003007]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000321,0.000421,0.000676,0.001136,0.001825,0.002712,0.003736,0.004843,0.005657,0.006174,0.006391,0.006347,0.006083,0.005643,0.005064,0.004386,0.003648,0.002889,0.002144,0.001442]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.3e-05,-8.2e-05,-0.000276,-0.000682,-0.001369,-0.00237,-0.003684,-0.00529,-0.00712,-0.009066,-0.011015,-0.012861,-0.014514,-0.015904,-0.016982,-0.017719,-0.018111,-0.018167,-0.017916]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.009124,0.018847,0.025242,0.030172,0.034849,0.039886,0.045515,0.051793,0.054131,0.053963,0.052233,0.049572,0.046385,0.042925,0.039355,0.035786,0.032298,0.02895,0.025786,0.02284]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.007535,0.011917,0.011124,0.009192,0.007655,0.006824,0.006583,0.006735,0.003407,-0.000367,-0.003368,-0.005303,-0.006291,-0.006573,-0.006387,-0.005924,-0.005321,-0.004671,-0.004031,-0.003435]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001099,-0.001467,-0.002433,-0.004219,-0.006953,-0.010516,-0.014648,-0.019114,-0.022593,-0.024983,-0.026174,-0.026243,-0.025339,-0.02364,-0.021328,-0.018587,-0.015597,-0.012523,-0.009512,-0.006682]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000125,0.000258,0.000465,0.000821,0.001393,0.002217,0.003291,0.004585,0.005927,0.00718,0.00823,0.009004,0.009465,0.009606,0.009445,0.009013,0.008356,0.007526,0.006576,0.005561]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-2.4e-05,-8e-05,-0.0002,-0.000402,-0.000692,-0.001068,-0.00152,-0.002016,-0.002505,-0.002943,-0.003301,-0.003566,-0.003739,-0.003824,-0.003834,-0.003782,-0.003681,-0.003542]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,7e-06,1.5e-05,2.6e-05,4e-05,5.7e-05,7.5e-05,9.3e-05,0.00011,0.000123,0.000133,0.000139,0.000143,0.000143,0.000141,0.000137,0.000132]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001169,-0.001562,-0.002593,-0.004506,-0.007433,-0.011251,-0.015678,-0.020464,-0.024202,-0.026779,-0.028072,-0.02816,-0.027203,-0.025389,-0.022915,-0.019981,-0.016778,-0.013485,-0.010258,-0.007227]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.019552,-0.040352,-0.053946,-0.064322,-0.074106,-0.084661,-0.096509,-0.109751,-0.114501,-0.113814,-0.109738,-0.103665,-0.096494,-0.088794,-0.080925,-0.073126,-0.065562,-0.058352,-0.051583,-0.045316]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002018,0.004917,0.007054,0.00814,0.008429,0.008268,0.007928,0.007584,0.006335,0.004226,0.001691,-0.000813,-0.002964,-0.004594,-0.005665,-0.006219,-0.006342,-0.006137,-0.005702,-0.005127]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5e-06,-2.8e-05,-9.3e-05,-0.000232,-0.000467,-0.000805,-0.001242,-0.001768,-0.002344,-0.002913,-0.003422,-0.003838,-0.004147,-0.004347,-0.004447,-0.004459,-0.004398,-0.00428,-0.004119]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008073,0.019668,0.028217,0.032559,0.033718,0.033071,0.031712,0.030338,0.02534,0.016903,0.006764,-0.003252,-0.011855,-0.018378,-0.022662,-0.024877,-0.025369,-0.024547,-0.022809,-0.02051]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000215,-0.00028,-0.000443,-0.000678,-0.00095,-0.001232,-0.001509,-0.001775,-0.002031,-0.002245,-0.002388,-0.002448,-0.002423,-0.002327,-0.002177,-0.00199,-0.001784,-0.001574,-0.00137,-0.00118]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002018,-0.004917,-0.007054,-0.00814,-0.008429,-0.008268,-0.007928,-0.007584,-0.006335,-0.004226,-0.001691,0.000813,0.002964,0.004594,0.005665,0.006219,0.006342,0.006137,0.005702,0.005127]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.051622,-0.055723,-0.055066,-0.049971,-0.041466,-0.030642,-0.018423,-0.00551,0.007604,0.019647,0.029492,0.036516,0.040614,0.042059,0.041332,0.03899,0.035578,0.031568,0.027348,0.023205]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.020723,-0.014871,-0.006999,0.00223,0.01192,0.021417,0.030382,0.038725,0.046506,0.052971,0.057394,0.059435,0.059155,0.056899,0.053152,0.04843,0.043206,0.03787,0.03272,0.02796]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.002723,0.004706,0.009055,0.015143,0.022105,0.029286,0.036315,0.043045,0.049474,0.05486,0.058498,0.060042,0.059519,0.05722,0.053573,0.04904,0.044045,0.038943,0.034004,0.029418]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.003861,0.005045,0.00798,0.012208,0.0171,0.022176,0.027165,0.031959,0.036553,0.040403,0.04299,0.044058,0.043622,0.041893,0.039181,0.03582,0.032119,0.028335,0.024665,0.021245]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.051605,0.040646,0.013014,-0.004874,-0.020981,-0.038905,-0.059684,-0.083293,-0.120603,-0.140914,-0.149878,-0.151115,-0.147019,-0.139244,-0.128989,-0.117156,-0.104436,-0.091368,-0.078364,-0.065736]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.070432,0.157099,0.234406,0.318387,0.419783,0.544374,0.694559,0.87103,0.984882,1.053266,1.088409,1.099392,1.09293,1.074005,1.046334,1.012716,0.975288,0.935643,0.895,0.854275]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0441,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0885,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.4241,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_nl","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"NL","name":"Netherlands"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000817,-0.001359,-0.003107,-0.006781,-0.012949,-0.021181,-0.030494,-0.040215,-0.049103,-0.055817,-0.059198,-0.059422,-0.057226,-0.053448,-0.048809,-0.043848,-0.038931,-0.034274,-0.029999,-0.026157]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000719,-0.001539,-0.002618,-0.004376,-0.007276,-0.011298,-0.016047,-0.021164,-0.025945,-0.029712,-0.031852,-0.03234,-0.031479,-0.029678,-0.02732,-0.024707,-0.022055,-0.019498,-0.017116,-0.01495]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016032,0.027961,0.031015,0.031136,0.030847,0.031091,0.032182,0.03417,0.029581,0.023116,0.016877,0.011664,0.007633,0.004657,0.002518,0.000994,-9.9e-05,-0.000905,-0.001524,-0.002026]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048583,0.110786,0.16617,0.218846,0.272058,0.328074,0.388461,0.454444,0.504566,0.541704,0.568005,0.585414,0.595674,0.600301,0.600574,0.597544,0.592059,0.58479,0.576262,0.56688]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000154,-0.000459,-0.00107,-0.002209,-0.004152,-0.00711,-0.011159,-0.016293,-0.022327,-0.028911,-0.035572,-0.041888,-0.047561,-0.052423,-0.056407,-0.059521,-0.061819,-0.06338,-0.064294,-0.064651]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.03144,-0.083265,-0.147161,-0.220488,-0.301737,-0.389739,-0.483494,-0.582121,-0.466955,-0.371418,-0.292577,-0.25805,-0.237365,-0.215604,-0.194621,-0.175414,-0.158338,-0.143318,-0.130044,-0.118115]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.013823,-0.03435,-0.062665,-0.099801,-0.146793,-0.202004,-0.262331,-0.325574,-0.308037,-0.291629,-0.272051,-0.248976,-0.223735,-0.197987,-0.173115,-0.150041,-0.129275,-0.110975,-0.0951,-0.081484]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022503,0.027147,0.031089,0.034063,0.03599,0.036902,0.036877,0.035999,0.034337,0.032116,0.029599,0.027013,0.024515,0.022189,0.020067,0.018139,0.016378,0.014746,0.013206,0.011728]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.026663,0.027267,0.027504,0.02735,0.026826,0.025973,0.024831,0.023427,0.021778,0.019958,0.018061,0.016168,0.014333,0.012588,0.010946,0.009404,0.007955,0.006587,0.005292,0.00406]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014775,0.014517,0.014104,0.013523,0.012787,0.011917,0.010933,0.009851,0.00868,0.007457,0.006229,0.005034,0.003901,0.002843,0.001864,0.000962,0.000131,-0.000637,-0.001349,-0.002011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.7e-05,-0.000326,-0.001061,-0.002572,-0.005055,-0.008514,-0.01284,-0.017881,-0.023251,-0.028404,-0.032887,-0.036422,-0.0389,-0.04034,-0.040843,-0.040552,-0.039621,-0.038201,-0.036428]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.0017,0.00609,0.013039,0.022092,0.032785,0.04476,0.057785,0.071747,0.085852,0.099244,0.111247,0.121426,0.129567,0.135625,0.139676,0.141865,0.142379,0.141419,0.139184]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007139,-0.017949,-0.033629,-0.054723,-0.08214,-0.113696,-0.146424,-0.17918,-0.20612,-0.222923,-0.226939,-0.220757,-0.20776,-0.190983,-0.172716,-0.154485,-0.137209,-0.121321,-0.106993,-0.094213]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.6e-05,-0.000125,-0.000294,-0.000567,-0.000978,-0.001546,-0.002278,-0.003174,-0.004205,-0.00532,-0.006454,-0.007558,-0.008597,-0.009552,-0.010415,-0.011188,-0.011874,-0.01248,-0.013015,-0.013486]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004997,-0.012564,-0.02354,-0.038306,-0.057498,-0.079587,-0.102497,-0.125426,-0.144284,-0.156046,-0.158857,-0.15453,-0.145432,-0.133688,-0.120901,-0.108139,-0.096046,-0.084925,-0.074895,-0.065949]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000174,0.000283,0.000632,0.001362,0.002585,0.004212,0.006044,0.007949,0.00967,0.01094,0.011536,0.011509,0.011018,0.010236,0.009307,0.008335,0.007389,0.006505,0.005703,0.00499]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,8e-06,4.9e-05,0.000163,0.000403,0.000807,0.001388,0.002143,0.003056,0.004078,0.005128,0.006133,0.007039,0.007814,0.008447,0.008936,0.00929,0.009524,0.009651,0.009688]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.013495,0.030616,0.045842,0.060272,0.074774,0.089935,0.106166,0.123823,0.136886,0.146161,0.152358,0.156216,0.158366,0.159293,0.159347,0.158772,0.157735,0.156347,0.154688,0.152813]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.011223,0.019573,0.021711,0.021795,0.021593,0.021764,0.022527,0.023919,0.020707,0.016181,0.011814,0.008165,0.005343,0.00326,0.001762,0.000696,-6.9e-05,-0.000633,-0.001067,-0.001418]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00049,-0.000814,-0.001858,-0.00405,-0.007732,-0.012644,-0.0182,-0.023997,-0.029294,-0.03329,-0.035293,-0.035413,-0.034092,-0.031832,-0.029063,-0.026105,-0.023177,-0.020406,-0.017864,-0.01558]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000127,0.000312,0.000731,0.001636,0.003316,0.005936,0.009475,0.013813,0.018662,0.023581,0.028041,0.031643,0.034184,0.035632,0.036071,0.035653,0.034557,0.032958,0.031016,0.028867]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.3e-05,-0.000135,-0.000446,-0.001093,-0.002176,-0.003725,-0.00572,-0.00812,-0.010767,-0.013412,-0.015832,-0.017874,-0.019461,-0.020573,-0.021234,-0.021492,-0.021407,-0.021041,-0.020456]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,5e-06,1.2e-05,2.3e-05,4e-05,6.1e-05,8.7e-05,0.000115,0.000143,0.000169,0.000191,0.000208,0.00022,0.000227,0.00023,0.000229,0.000225,0.000219]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000611,-0.001017,-0.002324,-0.005072,-0.009686,-0.015843,-0.02281,-0.030081,-0.036729,-0.041751,-0.04428,-0.044448,-0.042805,-0.039979,-0.036509,-0.032798,-0.02912,-0.025637,-0.022439,-0.019566]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014722,-0.033441,-0.050217,-0.066339,-0.08283,-0.100317,-0.119172,-0.139706,-0.155297,-0.166686,-0.174463,-0.179325,-0.181933,-0.182847,-0.182514,-0.181275,-0.179387,-0.177038,-0.174369,-0.171485]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000809,0.002268,0.00387,0.005361,0.006654,0.007751,0.008705,0.009588,0.010098,0.010152,0.009816,0.009216,0.008477,0.0077,0.006951,0.006265,0.005655,0.005118,0.004644,0.004218]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.9e-05,-0.00017,-0.000561,-0.001374,-0.002737,-0.004685,-0.007195,-0.010214,-0.013544,-0.01687,-0.019914,-0.022484,-0.024479,-0.025878,-0.026709,-0.027034,-0.026926,-0.026467,-0.025731]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001029,0.000978,0.000878,0.000725,0.000524,0.000279,-1e-06,-0.000313,-0.000654,-0.001012,-0.00137,-0.001718,-0.002045,-0.002347,-0.002623,-0.002873,-0.003101,-0.003308,-0.003496,-0.003669]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000809,-0.002268,-0.00387,-0.005361,-0.006654,-0.007751,-0.008705,-0.009588,-0.010098,-0.010152,-0.009816,-0.009216,-0.008477,-0.0077,-0.006951,-0.006265,-0.005655,-0.005118,-0.004644,-0.004218]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.042756,-0.05158,-0.05907,-0.064719,-0.068381,-0.070114,-0.070065,-0.068399,-0.065241,-0.061021,-0.056239,-0.051326,-0.046578,-0.042159,-0.038127,-0.034465,-0.031118,-0.028017,-0.025091,-0.022283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.119985,-0.122701,-0.123769,-0.123073,-0.120716,-0.116879,-0.111738,-0.105423,-0.098,-0.089812,-0.081276,-0.072754,-0.064498,-0.056648,-0.049257,-0.042319,-0.035797,-0.029644,-0.023813,-0.018268]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.121151,-0.119041,-0.115654,-0.110891,-0.104853,-0.097716,-0.089651,-0.080782,-0.071177,-0.061149,-0.051076,-0.041282,-0.031988,-0.023311,-0.015285,-0.00789,-0.001074,0.005224,0.011063,0.016493]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01852,-0.017595,-0.015803,-0.013058,-0.009427,-0.005028,2.1e-05,0.005635,0.011772,0.018207,0.024668,0.030921,0.036808,0.042245,0.04721,0.05172,0.055814,0.059536,0.062932,0.066038]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.02869,0.023122,-0.001873,-0.030612,-0.063472,-0.100646,-0.142377,-0.189082,-0.243774,-0.290135,-0.328359,-0.358952,-0.382671,-0.400404,-0.413054,-0.421474,-0.426423,-0.428562,-0.428448,-0.426545]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.054943,0.134714,0.222549,0.32528,0.448085,0.594433,0.76655,0.965996,1.11417,1.221201,1.295041,1.342422,1.368972,1.379323,1.377229,1.365695,1.347125,1.323381,1.295935,1.265941]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0594,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.3157,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3256,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_es","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"ES","name":"Spain"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000836,-0.001144,-0.002039,-0.003911,-0.007096,-0.011453,-0.016507,-0.021875,-0.026421,-0.029599,-0.031001,-0.030859,-0.02962,-0.02773,-0.025535,-0.023273,-0.021087,-0.019051,-0.017195,-0.015524]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000752,-0.001505,-0.002189,-0.00301,-0.004276,-0.006076,-0.008281,-0.010728,-0.012805,-0.014241,-0.014873,-0.014796,-0.014216,-0.013339,-0.012327,-0.01129,-0.010292,-0.009362,-0.00851,-0.007737]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.007287,0.013781,0.01649,0.017374,0.017597,0.017783,0.018264,0.019187,0.017218,0.014058,0.010779,0.007915,0.005643,0.003948,0.002729,0.001864,0.001242,0.000775,0.0004,7.5e-05]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.048583,0.110571,0.165117,0.215927,0.26594,0.317554,0.372768,0.433168,0.477513,0.509348,0.531676,0.546885,0.556737,0.562495,0.565067,0.565114,0.563135,0.559521,0.554586,0.548592]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000158,-0.000454,-0.00096,-0.001766,-0.002993,-0.004738,-0.007042,-0.009908,-0.013185,-0.016661,-0.020093,-0.023288,-0.026124,-0.028543,-0.030535,-0.032118,-0.03333,-0.03421,-0.034802,-0.035145]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.037944,-0.100493,-0.177608,-0.266106,-0.364165,-0.470375,-0.583527,-0.70256,-0.563567,-0.448263,-0.353111,-0.275367,-0.237365,-0.215604,-0.194621,-0.175414,-0.158338,-0.143318,-0.130044,-0.118115]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01449,-0.036228,-0.064047,-0.097642,-0.137063,-0.181551,-0.229762,-0.280576,-0.242584,-0.209866,-0.180436,-0.153837,-0.130151,-0.109507,-0.091892,-0.077136,-0.064957,-0.055006,-0.046924,-0.040374]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.022503,0.027147,0.031089,0.034063,0.03599,0.036902,0.036877,0.035999,0.034337,0.032116,0.029599,0.027013,0.024515,0.022189,0.020067,0.018139,0.016378,0.014746,0.013206,0.011728]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.026663,0.027267,0.027504,0.02735,0.026826,0.025973,0.024831,0.023427,0.021778,0.019958,0.018061,0.016168,0.014333,0.012588,0.010946,0.009404,0.007955,0.006587,0.005292,0.00406]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014775,0.014517,0.014104,0.013523,0.012787,0.011917,0.010933,0.009851,0.00868,0.007457,0.006229,0.005034,0.003901,0.002843,0.001864,0.000962,0.000131,-0.000637,-0.001349,-0.002011]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.9e-05,-0.000121,-0.000433,-0.001126,-0.002317,-0.00402,-0.006173,-0.008679,-0.01132,-0.013807,-0.015923,-0.017554,-0.018673,-0.019317,-0.01955,-0.019452,-0.019097,-0.018552,-0.017874]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.000773,0.002887,0.00641,0.011196,0.017036,0.023743,0.031179,0.039271,0.047648,0.055877,0.063583,0.070503,0.076485,0.081471,0.085466,0.088521,0.090709,0.092113,0.092815]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007193,-0.017109,-0.029779,-0.044873,-0.062743,-0.082538,-0.10294,-0.123393,-0.138169,-0.145852,-0.145875,-0.140276,-0.131285,-0.120728,-0.109869,-0.099461,-0.08988,-0.081232,-0.07349,-0.066552]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.6e-05,-0.000122,-0.00027,-0.000495,-0.000808,-0.001221,-0.001736,-0.002353,-0.003044,-0.003773,-0.004502,-0.005204,-0.00586,-0.006464,-0.007013,-0.00751,-0.00796,-0.008366,-0.008733,-0.009066]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005035,-0.011976,-0.020845,-0.031411,-0.04392,-0.057777,-0.072058,-0.086375,-0.096718,-0.102096,-0.102113,-0.098193,-0.091899,-0.08451,-0.076908,-0.069623,-0.062916,-0.056862,-0.051443,-0.046587]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000183,0.00025,0.000443,0.000848,0.001537,0.002479,0.003571,0.004731,0.005711,0.006393,0.006689,0.006652,0.00638,0.005969,0.005495,0.005008,0.004539,0.004103,0.003706,0.003349]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,1e-06,5e-06,2e-05,5.2e-05,0.00011,0.000196,0.000309,0.000448,0.000604,0.000765,0.00092,0.001061,0.001184,0.001289,0.001376,0.001446,0.001501,0.001543,0.001574]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.007363,0.016798,0.025487,0.034225,0.043635,0.053996,0.065347,0.077706,0.087675,0.095403,0.10087,0.104231,0.105779,0.105871,0.104864,0.103077,0.100778,0.098176,0.095427,0.092645]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005101,0.009647,0.011543,0.012162,0.012318,0.012448,0.012785,0.013431,0.012052,0.009841,0.007545,0.00554,0.00395,0.002764,0.00191,0.001305,0.000869,0.000542,0.00028,5.2e-05]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000502,-0.000685,-0.001216,-0.002326,-0.004216,-0.006799,-0.009796,-0.012977,-0.015665,-0.017534,-0.018347,-0.018246,-0.0175,-0.016373,-0.015071,-0.013735,-0.012449,-0.011253,-0.010165,-0.009187]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[8.8e-05,0.00019,0.000366,0.000704,0.001308,0.002249,0.003532,0.005123,0.006872,0.008606,0.01014,0.011352,0.012192,0.012665,0.012813,0.012694,0.012369,0.011896,0.011322,0.010688]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6e-06,-3.9e-05,-0.000137,-0.000354,-0.000732,-0.001287,-0.002014,-0.002898,-0.003873,-0.004834,-0.005694,-0.006396,-0.006915,-0.007249,-0.007414,-0.007434,-0.007335,-0.007143,-0.006883]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,5e-06,1.1e-05,1.9e-05,2.9e-05,4.2e-05,5.6e-05,7e-05,8.2e-05,9.3e-05,0.0001,0.000105,0.000107,0.000108,0.000106,0.000103,0.0001]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000616,-0.000843,-0.001502,-0.002882,-0.00523,-0.008441,-0.012166,-0.016122,-0.019473,-0.021814,-0.022848,-0.022743,-0.02183,-0.020437,-0.018819,-0.017152,-0.015541,-0.014041,-0.012673,-0.011441]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014742,-0.033356,-0.049728,-0.064966,-0.079959,-0.095426,-0.111959,-0.13003,-0.143081,-0.152199,-0.158376,-0.162465,-0.165089,-0.166668,-0.167467,-0.167654,-0.167338,-0.166591,-0.165471,-0.164029]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000809,0.002268,0.00387,0.005361,0.006654,0.007751,0.008705,0.009588,0.010098,0.010152,0.009816,0.009216,0.008477,0.0077,0.006951,0.006265,0.005655,0.005118,0.004644,0.004218]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8e-06,-4.8e-05,-0.00017,-0.000439,-0.000907,-0.001595,-0.002497,-0.003593,-0.004801,-0.005993,-0.007059,-0.007929,-0.008572,-0.008987,-0.009192,-0.009216,-0.009093,-0.008855,-0.008533]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003234,0.009073,0.015479,0.021444,0.026615,0.031003,0.034821,0.038354,0.040391,0.040607,0.039265,0.036864,0.033909,0.030801,0.027803,0.025059,0.02262,0.020474,0.018578,0.016874]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001029,0.000978,0.000878,0.000725,0.000524,0.000279,-1e-06,-0.000313,-0.000654,-0.001012,-0.00137,-0.001718,-0.002045,-0.002347,-0.002623,-0.002873,-0.003101,-0.003308,-0.003496,-0.003669]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000809,-0.002268,-0.00387,-0.005361,-0.006654,-0.007751,-0.008705,-0.009588,-0.010098,-0.010152,-0.009816,-0.009216,-0.008477,-0.0077,-0.006951,-0.006265,-0.005655,-0.005118,-0.004644,-0.004218]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.042756,-0.05158,-0.05907,-0.064719,-0.068381,-0.070114,-0.070065,-0.068399,-0.065241,-0.061021,-0.056239,-0.051326,-0.046578,-0.042159,-0.038127,-0.034465,-0.031118,-0.028017,-0.025091,-0.022283]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.119985,-0.122701,-0.123769,-0.123073,-0.120716,-0.116879,-0.111738,-0.105423,-0.098,-0.089812,-0.081276,-0.072754,-0.064498,-0.056648,-0.049257,-0.042319,-0.035797,-0.029644,-0.023813,-0.018268]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.121151,-0.119041,-0.115654,-0.110891,-0.104853,-0.097716,-0.089651,-0.080782,-0.071177,-0.061149,-0.051076,-0.041282,-0.031988,-0.023311,-0.015285,-0.00789,-0.001074,0.005224,0.011063,0.016493]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.01852,-0.017595,-0.015803,-0.013058,-0.009427,-0.005028,2.1e-05,0.005635,0.011772,0.018207,0.024668,0.030921,0.036808,0.042245,0.04721,0.05172,0.055814,0.059536,0.062932,0.066038]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.035657,0.036289,0.016806,-0.00408,-0.02593,-0.048899,-0.073649,-0.101001,-0.141245,-0.176074,-0.20581,-0.230922,-0.251906,-0.269233,-0.283324,-0.294556,-0.303258,-0.309737,-0.314262,-0.317083]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.054943,0.134499,0.221496,0.322361,0.441967,0.583914,0.750857,0.94472,1.087116,1.188844,1.258712,1.303893,1.330035,1.341518,1.341722,1.333265,1.3182,1.298111,1.274259,1.247652]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.031,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1777,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2806,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_pl","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"PL","name":"Poland"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001293,-0.001716,-0.002811,-0.004842,-0.007993,-0.012135,-0.016945,-0.022144,-0.026181,-0.028858,-0.03002,-0.029849,-0.028633,-0.026657,-0.024168,-0.021367,-0.018423,-0.015467,-0.01261,-0.009935]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001271,-0.002224,-0.002647,-0.002958,-0.003607,-0.004764,-0.006368,-0.008281,-0.009602,-0.010379,-0.010711,-0.010718,-0.010476,-0.010025,-0.009388,-0.008585,-0.00765,-0.006618,-0.005536,-0.004448]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.009653,0.015103,0.014359,0.012209,0.010391,0.009285,0.008815,0.0088,0.004754,0.000264,-0.003269,-0.005546,-0.006727,-0.007104,-0.006957,-0.006508,-0.005914,-0.005276,-0.004659,-0.004094]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005792,0.014198,0.020872,0.024894,0.026712,0.027072,0.026645,0.02592,0.022615,0.016881,0.00986,0.002763,-0.00353,-0.008533,-0.012094,-0.014283,-0.015301,-0.015397,-0.014829,-0.013828]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.038306,0.079445,0.107288,0.128318,0.146651,0.164728,0.183921,0.204881,0.210673,0.207238,0.198816,0.188077,0.176524,0.164912,0.15358,0.142655,0.132172,0.122137,0.112553,0.103423]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000247,-0.000664,-0.001295,-0.002202,-0.003468,-0.005171,-0.007357,-0.010044,-0.013025,-0.016084,-0.019015,-0.021665,-0.023936,-0.025778,-0.027174,-0.028132,-0.028674,-0.028836,-0.028657,-0.028185]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.024133,-0.059159,-0.088533,-0.132647,-0.181527,-0.23447,-0.290874,-0.350209,-0.280924,-0.223448,-0.176017,-0.137264,-0.105983,-0.081062,-0.061468,0.059514,0.063753,0.064156,0.061789,0.057618]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.018349,-0.045517,-0.080032,-0.121016,-0.168025,-0.220235,-0.276562,-0.336064,-0.284521,-0.240542,-0.202373,-0.169191,-0.140495,-0.115851,-0.09482,-0.076965,-0.061878,-0.049178,-0.038542,-0.029689]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.021513,0.023616,0.023952,0.022575,0.019809,0.016029,0.011578,0.006735,0.00171,-0.003029,-0.007064,-0.010151,-0.012224,-0.013357,-0.013697,-0.01343,-0.012738,-0.011785,-0.010708,-0.009611]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006322,0.005403,0.00413,0.002588,0.000906,-0.000813,-0.002506,-0.004141,-0.005711,-0.007094,-0.008175,-0.008894,-0.009252,-0.009291,-0.009078,-0.008684,-0.00818,-0.007624,-0.007059,-0.006521]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000147,-9.4e-05,-0.000543,-0.001154,-0.001863,-0.002612,-0.003366,-0.004105,-0.004821,-0.00545,-0.005932,-0.006234,-0.006354,-0.006313,-0.006144,-0.005882,-0.005562,-0.005214,-0.004861,-0.004519]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.2e-05,-0.00013,-0.000431,-0.001055,-0.002079,-0.003506,-0.005279,-0.007314,-0.00944,-0.011439,-0.013134,-0.014414,-0.015226,-0.015562,-0.015445,-0.014924,-0.014058,-0.012916,-0.011572]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00107,0.003631,0.007332,0.0117,0.016359,0.021061,0.025662,0.030089,0.033839,0.036455,0.037678,0.037456,0.035887,0.033163,0.029523,0.025215,0.020474,0.01551,0.0105]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.012308,-0.026517,-0.040232,-0.052816,-0.065366,-0.07834,-0.091655,-0.10533,-0.110321,-0.107687,-0.098781,-0.086268,-0.072384,-0.05864,-0.045901,-0.034573,-0.024781,-0.016472,-0.009539,-0.003846]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-6.2e-05,-0.000194,-0.000395,-0.000659,-0.000986,-0.001378,-0.001836,-0.002363,-0.002914,-0.003453,-0.003947,-0.004378,-0.00474,-0.005033,-0.005263,-0.005436,-0.005559,-0.005642,-0.00569,-0.005709]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.008616,-0.018562,-0.028162,-0.036971,-0.045756,-0.054838,-0.064159,-0.073731,-0.077225,-0.075381,-0.069146,-0.060388,-0.050669,-0.041048,-0.032131,-0.024201,-0.017346,-0.01153,-0.006678,-0.002692]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000259,0.000343,0.00056,0.000962,0.001585,0.002403,0.003353,0.00438,0.005173,0.005696,0.00592,0.00588,0.005636,0.005243,0.00475,0.004197,0.003617,0.003034,0.002471,0.001944]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.008207,0.016993,0.023343,0.028828,0.034467,0.0407,0.047585,0.055063,0.059287,0.061189,0.061269,0.059917,0.057477,0.054255,0.050518,0.046491,0.042357,0.038257,0.034297,0.030552]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006757,0.010572,0.010051,0.008546,0.007274,0.0065,0.00617,0.00616,0.003328,0.000185,-0.002288,-0.003882,-0.004709,-0.004973,-0.00487,-0.004556,-0.00414,-0.003694,-0.003261,-0.002866]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000776,-0.001028,-0.00168,-0.002885,-0.004754,-0.007208,-0.010058,-0.013139,-0.01552,-0.017089,-0.017759,-0.01764,-0.016907,-0.015729,-0.014251,-0.012592,-0.01085,-0.009103,-0.007414,-0.005833]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000131,0.000275,0.000496,0.000873,0.001482,0.002371,0.003544,0.004975,0.006486,0.007923,0.009149,0.010077,0.01067,0.010927,0.010873,0.010548,0.009999,0.009277,0.008431,0.007508]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3e-06,-1.9e-05,-6.5e-05,-0.000165,-0.000335,-0.00058,-0.000897,-0.001276,-0.001687,-0.002087,-0.00244,-0.002725,-0.002933,-0.003066,-0.00313,-0.003136,-0.003096,-0.003018,-0.002914]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,5e-06,9e-06,1.6e-05,2.5e-05,3.5e-05,4.7e-05,5.8e-05,6.8e-05,7.6e-05,8.1e-05,8.5e-05,8.7e-05,8.7e-05,8.6e-05,8.4e-05,8.1e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000811,-0.001076,-0.001763,-0.003036,-0.005012,-0.007609,-0.010624,-0.013884,-0.016415,-0.018094,-0.018823,-0.018715,-0.017953,-0.016714,-0.015153,-0.013397,-0.011551,-0.009698,-0.007906,-0.006229]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.011854,-0.024252,-0.032673,-0.039019,-0.044495,-0.049833,-0.055479,-0.061651,-0.062893,-0.061117,-0.057793,-0.0539,-0.049976,-0.04626,-0.042817,-0.039631,-0.036662,-0.033866,-0.031216,-0.028695]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.001448,0.00355,0.005218,0.006224,0.006678,0.006768,0.006661,0.00648,0.005654,0.00422,0.002465,0.000691,-0.000882,-0.002133,-0.003023,-0.003571,-0.003825,-0.003849,-0.003707,-0.003457]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4e-06,-2.1e-05,-7.3e-05,-0.000183,-0.000372,-0.000645,-0.000997,-0.001417,-0.001874,-0.002319,-0.002712,-0.003028,-0.003259,-0.003406,-0.003478,-0.003485,-0.00344,-0.003354,-0.003238]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005792,0.014198,0.020872,0.024894,0.026712,0.027072,0.026645,0.02592,0.022615,0.016881,0.00986,0.002763,-0.00353,-0.008533,-0.012094,-0.014283,-0.015301,-0.015397,-0.014829,-0.013828]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000296,-0.000342,-0.000458,-0.000631,-0.000837,-0.001058,-0.001282,-0.001503,-0.001718,-0.001906,-0.002046,-0.002127,-0.002149,-0.002118,-0.002046,-0.001943,-0.001823,-0.001693,-0.001563,-0.001437]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001448,-0.00355,-0.005218,-0.006224,-0.006678,-0.006768,-0.006661,-0.00648,-0.005654,-0.00422,-0.002465,-0.000691,0.000882,0.002133,0.003023,0.003571,0.003825,0.003849,0.003707,0.003457]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.040875,-0.044871,-0.045508,-0.042893,-0.037637,-0.030454,-0.021998,-0.012797,-0.003249,0.005756,0.013422,0.019286,0.023226,0.025378,0.026025,0.025517,0.024202,0.022392,0.020346,0.018261]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.028447,-0.024312,-0.018584,-0.011648,-0.004079,0.00366,0.011277,0.018633,0.025698,0.031922,0.036787,0.040024,0.041635,0.041811,0.04085,0.03908,0.036812,0.034306,0.031768,0.029342]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001206,0.000773,0.00445,0.009465,0.015273,0.021419,0.027602,0.033661,0.039534,0.044694,0.048642,0.051117,0.052104,0.051769,0.05038,0.048233,0.045611,0.042756,0.039858,0.037055]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.00533,0.006159,0.008253,0.011352,0.015059,0.019042,0.023082,0.027059,0.03093,0.034305,0.03682,0.038282,0.038677,0.038126,0.036823,0.034982,0.03281,0.030481,0.028135,0.025871]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.043891,0.064805,0.073967,0.085805,0.099065,0.113485,0.129185,0.146484,0.150475,0.15608,0.161511,0.166005,0.169414,0.171885,0.173664,0.174983,0.176035,0.176934,0.177751,0.178519]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.044665,0.103373,0.163667,0.234752,0.322678,0.431087,0.56201,0.716433,0.820276,0.886735,0.925852,0.945086,0.949822,0.943935,0.930235,0.910806,0.887237,0.860728,0.832226,0.802483]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.03,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0848,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3361,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_se","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"SE","name":"Sweden"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000753,-0.001032,-0.001806,-0.003339,-0.005851,-0.009232,-0.01315,-0.017322,-0.020765,-0.023117,-0.024094,-0.023842,-0.022666,-0.020885,-0.018759,-0.016486,-0.014203,-0.012,-0.009937,-0.008052]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000736,-0.001333,-0.001714,-0.002138,-0.002913,-0.004137,-0.005718,-0.00752,-0.008989,-0.00999,-0.010443,-0.010411,-0.01001,-0.009357,-0.008547,-0.007649,-0.006715,-0.005779,-0.004869,-0.004004]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.007458,0.012073,0.012033,0.010444,0.008713,0.007363,0.00653,0.006174,0.003093,-0.000398,-0.003236,-0.005111,-0.006085,-0.006359,-0.006157,-0.005671,-0.00505,-0.004395,-0.00377,-0.003213]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00358,0.009167,0.014176,0.017691,0.019666,0.020418,0.02036,0.019876,0.017773,0.014047,0.00931,0.004296,-0.000386,-0.004348,-0.007402,-0.009523,-0.01079,-0.01134,-0.011331,-0.010921]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.038745,0.080518,0.110072,0.132956,0.153053,0.172777,0.193468,0.215816,0.224047,0.222934,0.215713,0.204652,0.191361,0.176982,0.162305,0.147864,0.134001,0.120921,0.108733,0.097477]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000141,-0.000388,-0.000786,-0.001394,-0.002291,-0.003548,-0.005195,-0.007238,-0.009546,-0.011955,-0.014285,-0.016393,-0.018189,-0.01963,-0.020707,-0.021435,-0.021843,-0.021969,-0.021849,-0.021524]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.026669,-0.070631,-0.124832,-0.187033,-0.255953,-0.330603,-0.410132,-0.493795,-0.396103,-0.315061,-0.248184,-0.193542,-0.149436,-0.114297,-0.08667,-0.065234,0.067441,0.070876,0.07082,0.068256]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.015076,-0.037034,-0.065383,-0.099825,-0.140398,-0.186301,-0.236134,-0.288707,-0.251928,-0.219889,-0.190568,-0.163486,-0.13875,-0.116546,-0.096953,-0.079914,-0.065271,-0.052798,-0.042254,-0.033405]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.015617,0.017391,0.018001,0.017393,0.015718,0.013212,0.010116,0.006646,0.002971,-0.0006,-0.003773,-0.006353,-0.008255,-0.009488,-0.010125,-0.010271,-0.010048,-0.009568,-0.008933,-0.008227]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005216,0.004524,0.003594,0.002456,0.001185,-0.000146,-0.00148,-0.002782,-0.004036,-0.005165,-0.006094,-0.006775,-0.007198,-0.00738,-0.007361,-0.007186,-0.006901,-0.006551,-0.00617,-0.005786]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000101,-0.000277,-0.00059,-0.001025,-0.001545,-0.002111,-0.002691,-0.003266,-0.003826,-0.004328,-0.004734,-0.005017,-0.005172,-0.005206,-0.005137,-0.004989,-0.004785,-0.004546,-0.004291,-0.004033]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.5e-05,-9.3e-05,-0.000318,-0.000797,-0.001607,-0.002756,-0.004207,-0.005895,-0.007677,-0.009361,-0.010793,-0.01188,-0.012587,-0.012922,-0.012916,-0.012619,-0.012081,-0.011357,-0.010498]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.0008,0.002765,0.005691,0.009226,0.013045,0.016905,0.020652,0.024205,0.027206,0.029322,0.030351,0.030245,0.029073,0.026981,0.024156,0.020794,0.017081,0.013182,0.009237]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007478,-0.01691,-0.027061,-0.037327,-0.048211,-0.059554,-0.070833,-0.081898,-0.087507,-0.08728,-0.081442,-0.071943,-0.060709,-0.049213,-0.038405,-0.028794,-0.020586,-0.01377,-0.00824,-0.003842]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.7e-05,-0.000122,-0.000257,-0.000444,-0.000685,-0.000983,-0.001337,-0.001746,-0.002184,-0.00262,-0.003028,-0.003387,-0.003691,-0.003937,-0.004129,-0.004273,-0.004376,-0.004445,-0.004486,-0.004505]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005235,-0.011837,-0.018943,-0.026129,-0.033747,-0.041688,-0.049583,-0.057329,-0.061255,-0.061096,-0.057009,-0.05036,-0.042497,-0.034449,-0.026883,-0.020156,-0.01441,-0.009639,-0.005768,-0.00269]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.00016,0.000217,0.000373,0.000679,0.001178,0.001847,0.002621,0.003445,0.004112,0.004553,0.004718,0.004643,0.004392,0.00403,0.003609,0.003164,0.002721,0.002297,0.001901,0.00154]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,5e-06,3.2e-05,0.000111,0.000282,0.000578,0.001008,0.001567,0.002239,0.002978,0.003719,0.004404,0.004993,0.005463,0.005807,0.006026,0.006128,0.006127,0.006034,0.005865]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.006859,0.014226,0.019578,0.02395,0.028067,0.032317,0.036855,0.041746,0.044118,0.044714,0.043989,0.042308,0.039973,0.037234,0.034287,0.03128,0.028319,0.025478,0.022802,0.020318]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005221,0.008451,0.008423,0.007311,0.006099,0.005154,0.004571,0.004322,0.002165,-0.000279,-0.002265,-0.003578,-0.00426,-0.004451,-0.00431,-0.00397,-0.003535,-0.003076,-0.002639,-0.002249]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000452,-0.000618,-0.001078,-0.001987,-0.003477,-0.005483,-0.007805,-0.010278,-0.012312,-0.013694,-0.014258,-0.014094,-0.013386,-0.012323,-0.01106,-0.009712,-0.008362,-0.00706,-0.005843,-0.004731]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000117,0.000253,0.000482,0.000903,0.00163,0.002735,0.004226,0.006066,0.008071,0.01004,0.011767,0.013109,0.014,0.014437,0.014458,0.014121,0.013499,0.012659,0.011667,0.010582]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5e-06,-3.1e-05,-0.000108,-0.000274,-0.00056,-0.000976,-0.001516,-0.002166,-0.002876,-0.003574,-0.004198,-0.004709,-0.005088,-0.005336,-0.005463,-0.005486,-0.005424,-0.005296,-0.005117]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,7e-06,1.2e-05,1.9e-05,2.8e-05,3.7e-05,4.6e-05,5.4e-05,6e-05,6.5e-05,6.8e-05,7e-05,7e-05,6.9e-05,6.8e-05,6.5e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000538,-0.000738,-0.001291,-0.002387,-0.004183,-0.006601,-0.009402,-0.012385,-0.014847,-0.016529,-0.017227,-0.017047,-0.016207,-0.014933,-0.013413,-0.011787,-0.010155,-0.00858,-0.007105,-0.005757]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.011789,-0.024334,-0.033182,-0.039968,-0.045837,-0.051521,-0.057444,-0.06383,-0.06578,-0.064789,-0.061955,-0.058091,-0.053754,-0.0493,-0.044943,-0.040798,-0.036923,-0.033333,-0.030028,-0.026996]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000895,0.002292,0.003544,0.004423,0.004917,0.005104,0.00509,0.004969,0.004443,0.003512,0.002327,0.001074,-9.7e-05,-0.001087,-0.00185,-0.002381,-0.002698,-0.002835,-0.002833,-0.00273]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-3.9e-05,-0.000135,-0.000344,-0.000703,-0.001225,-0.001902,-0.002717,-0.003608,-0.004484,-0.005267,-0.005907,-0.006383,-0.006693,-0.006853,-0.006882,-0.006805,-0.006643,-0.006419]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00358,0.009167,0.014176,0.017691,0.019666,0.020418,0.02036,0.019876,0.017773,0.014047,0.00931,0.004296,-0.000386,-0.004348,-0.007402,-0.009523,-0.01079,-0.01134,-0.011331,-0.010921]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000367,-0.000395,-0.000469,-0.000586,-0.000731,-0.000893,-0.001061,-0.001229,-0.001392,-0.001538,-0.001653,-0.001728,-0.001761,-0.001755,-0.001717,-0.001653,-0.001571,-0.001478,-0.001381,-0.001285]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000895,-0.002292,-0.003544,-0.004423,-0.004917,-0.005104,-0.00509,-0.004969,-0.004443,-0.003512,-0.002327,-0.001074,9.7e-05,0.001087,0.00185,0.002381,0.002698,0.002835,0.002833,0.00273]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.029672,-0.033043,-0.034202,-0.033046,-0.029865,-0.025102,-0.019221,-0.012627,-0.005645,0.001139,0.007169,0.012071,0.015685,0.018028,0.019237,0.019516,0.019091,0.018179,0.016974,0.015631]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.023472,-0.02036,-0.016174,-0.011054,-0.005334,0.000655,0.006659,0.012518,0.01816,0.023243,0.027423,0.030488,0.032389,0.033212,0.033124,0.032335,0.031056,0.029479,0.027765,0.026036]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000828,0.002273,0.00484,0.008409,0.01267,0.017307,0.022067,0.026784,0.031369,0.035491,0.038818,0.041142,0.042409,0.042686,0.042124,0.040909,0.039234,0.037276,0.035182,0.033069]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.006598,0.007106,0.00845,0.010544,0.013164,0.016079,0.019104,0.02212,0.025061,0.027685,0.029749,0.031102,0.031701,0.031598,0.030901,0.029745,0.028272,0.02661,0.024866,0.023126]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.033093,0.052234,0.062697,0.074858,0.088104,0.102343,0.117721,0.134515,0.141404,0.148916,0.156171,0.162785,0.168614,0.173624,0.177841,0.181316,0.184119,0.186314,0.187973,0.189163]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.045104,0.104447,0.166451,0.23939,0.32908,0.439137,0.571558,0.727367,0.83365,0.902431,0.94275,0.96166,0.96466,0.956004,0.93896,0.916014,0.889066,0.859511,0.828406,0.796537]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0241,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0651,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.2887,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_th","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"TH","name":"Thailand"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001519,-0.002131,-0.003785,-0.006801,-0.011319,-0.017024,-0.023413,-0.030153,-0.035467,-0.039009,-0.040433,-0.039902,-0.037793,-0.034534,-0.030526,-0.026114,-0.021582,-0.01715,-0.012983,-0.009198]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002812,-0.003352,-0.002743,-0.003064,-0.004647,-0.007201,-0.010303,-0.013648,-0.015482,-0.016996,-0.018064,-0.018471,-0.018145,-0.017148,-0.015613,-0.013695,-0.011548,-0.009309,-0.007092,-0.004992]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.043765,0.035791,0.015141,0.008906,0.007886,0.00846,0.009426,0.010437,-0.009625,-0.017163,-0.019048,-0.018467,-0.016818,-0.014741,-0.012552,-0.010425,-0.008461,-0.006712,-0.0052,-0.003924]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.017069,0.029631,0.032345,0.031562,0.029864,0.028074,0.026414,0.02494,0.015468,0.003645,-0.00761,-0.017016,-0.024132,-0.02894,-0.031637,-0.032529,-0.031965,-0.030296,-0.027848,-0.024909]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.159147,0.206717,0.195927,0.202132,0.217046,0.237348,0.261663,0.289285,0.24325,0.208264,0.179683,0.155343,0.134185,0.115607,0.09921,0.0847,0.07185,0.060479,0.050444,0.041623]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000657,-0.001663,-0.002948,-0.00465,-0.006977,-0.010091,-0.014055,-0.018877,-0.024062,-0.029222,-0.034004,-0.038138,-0.041449,-0.043851,-0.045325,-0.04591,-0.045681,-0.044738,-0.043196,-0.041174]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.071119,-0.123461,-0.134772,-0.131507,-0.124433,-0.144544,-0.179315,-0.215894,-0.173181,-0.137749,-0.108509,-0.084619,0.100552,0.120585,0.131823,0.135539,0.133188,0.126232,0.116032,0.103787]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.016615,-0.039268,-0.069426,-0.106806,-0.151133,-0.201144,-0.255188,-0.312085,-0.278251,-0.248004,-0.219304,-0.19165,-0.165167,-0.140162,-0.116929,-0.095687,-0.076569,-0.05963,-0.044864,-0.032215]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.027487,0.027287,0.024039,0.019045,0.012972,0.006223,-0.000904,-0.00816,-0.015344,-0.021273,-0.025516,-0.028045,-0.029032,-0.028731,-0.027423,-0.025384,-0.022864,-0.020078,-0.017204,-0.014379]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000894,-0.002833,-0.005238,-0.007622,-0.009818,-0.011796,-0.013564,-0.015147,-0.01657,-0.017448,-0.017677,-0.017298,-0.016415,-0.015152,-0.013632,-0.011966,-0.010249,-0.008557,-0.00695,-0.005467]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.002514,-0.0029,-0.003601,-0.004374,-0.005128,-0.005843,-0.006516,-0.007149,-0.007747,-0.008111,-0.00818,-0.007971,-0.007528,-0.006908,-0.00617,-0.005366,-0.004541,-0.003731,-0.002964,-0.00226]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.5e-05,-0.000302,-0.000923,-0.002098,-0.003901,-0.006279,-0.009116,-0.012279,-0.015504,-0.018439,-0.020792,-0.022381,-0.023131,-0.023054,-0.022224,-0.020755,-0.018785,-0.016455,-0.013906]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.004904,0.012973,0.021276,0.028948,0.035834,0.041981,0.047472,0.052386,0.05444,0.05317,0.048878,0.042147,0.033633,0.02397,0.013731,0.003403,-0.006613,-0.016007,-0.024551]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.029856,-0.051017,-0.060726,-0.069286,-0.080773,-0.095092,-0.110998,-0.127824,-0.126878,-0.117123,-0.101993,-0.084389,-0.066236,-0.0488,-0.03287,-0.018885,-0.007042,0.002642,0.010253,0.015948]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000149,-0.000404,-0.000708,-0.001054,-0.001458,-0.001934,-0.002489,-0.003128,-0.003762,-0.004348,-0.004858,-0.00528,-0.005611,-0.005855,-0.006019,-0.006114,-0.006149,-0.006136,-0.006084,-0.006005]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.020899,-0.035712,-0.042508,-0.0485,-0.056541,-0.066564,-0.077699,-0.089477,-0.088815,-0.081986,-0.071395,-0.059072,-0.046365,-0.03416,-0.023009,-0.01322,-0.00493,0.00185,0.007177,0.011164]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000256,0.000359,0.000637,0.001142,0.001898,0.002852,0.00392,0.005047,0.005932,0.006519,0.006752,0.006658,0.006301,0.005753,0.005081,0.004343,0.003585,0.002844,0.002148,0.001516]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-3.9e-05,-0.00022,-0.00069,-0.001613,-0.003095,-0.005153,-0.007753,-0.010837,-0.014234,-0.017687,-0.020946,-0.023811,-0.026146,-0.027869,-0.028954,-0.029412,-0.029284,-0.028635,-0.027542]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.040015,0.051994,0.04951,0.0514,0.055556,0.06106,0.067487,0.074638,0.063053,0.053916,0.04609,0.039145,0.032945,0.027445,0.022623,0.018444,0.014864,0.011827,0.009275,0.007148]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.030636,0.025054,0.010599,0.006234,0.00552,0.005922,0.006598,0.007306,-0.006737,-0.012014,-0.013334,-0.012927,-0.011773,-0.010319,-0.008786,-0.007298,-0.005923,-0.004699,-0.00364,-0.002747]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000911,-0.001277,-0.002264,-0.00406,-0.006749,-0.010141,-0.013939,-0.017944,-0.021092,-0.02318,-0.024007,-0.023672,-0.022403,-0.020455,-0.018066,-0.01544,-0.012746,-0.010112,-0.007638,-0.005391]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[4.8e-05,0.000101,0.000189,0.000345,0.000596,0.000948,0.001391,0.001907,0.002427,0.002894,0.003257,0.003486,0.003575,0.003532,0.003375,0.003127,0.002814,0.00246,0.002087,0.001712]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6e-06,-3.3e-05,-0.000106,-0.000255,-0.000499,-0.000842,-0.001279,-0.001801,-0.002372,-0.002941,-0.003459,-0.003896,-0.004235,-0.004471,-0.00461,-0.00466,-0.004634,-0.004544,-0.004405]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,2e-06,5e-06,1e-05,1.7e-05,2.5e-05,3.6e-05,4.7e-05,5.8e-05,6.9e-05,7.7e-05,8.4e-05,8.9e-05,9.2e-05,9.3e-05,9.2e-05,9e-05,8.8e-05]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000836,-0.001172,-0.002082,-0.003741,-0.006225,-0.009363,-0.012877,-0.016584,-0.019507,-0.021455,-0.022238,-0.021946,-0.020786,-0.018994,-0.016789,-0.014363,-0.01187,-0.009432,-0.007141,-0.005059]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0482,-0.062589,-0.059591,-0.061788,-0.066646,-0.073116,-0.080764,-0.089388,-0.07543,-0.064395,-0.055045,-0.046915,-0.03981,-0.033602,-0.028181,-0.023443,-0.019299,-0.015675,-0.012513,-0.009767]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004267,0.007408,0.008086,0.00789,0.007466,0.007019,0.006604,0.006235,0.003867,0.000911,-0.001902,-0.004254,-0.006033,-0.007235,-0.007909,-0.008132,-0.007991,-0.007574,-0.006962,-0.006227]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7e-06,-4e-05,-0.00013,-0.000311,-0.00061,-0.00103,-0.001565,-0.002203,-0.002902,-0.003597,-0.004231,-0.004766,-0.00518,-0.005469,-0.005639,-0.0057,-0.005668,-0.005559,-0.005388]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.017069,0.029631,0.032345,0.031562,0.029864,0.028074,0.026414,0.02494,0.015468,0.003645,-0.00761,-0.017016,-0.024132,-0.02894,-0.031637,-0.032529,-0.031965,-0.030296,-0.027848,-0.024909]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000675,-0.000818,-0.001065,-0.001335,-0.001598,-0.001847,-0.002081,-0.002301,-0.002509,-0.002637,-0.002667,-0.002603,-0.00246,-0.002258,-0.002016,-0.001752,-0.00148,-0.001212,-0.000959,-0.000726]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004267,-0.007408,-0.008086,-0.00789,-0.007466,-0.007019,-0.006604,-0.006235,-0.003867,-0.000911,0.001902,0.004254,0.006033,0.007235,0.007909,0.008132,0.007991,0.007574,0.006962,0.006227]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.052226,-0.051846,-0.045674,-0.036185,-0.024648,-0.011824,0.001717,0.015505,0.029154,0.040419,0.04848,0.053286,0.055161,0.054588,0.052103,0.048229,0.043441,0.038148,0.032687,0.027319]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.004021,0.012749,0.023573,0.034298,0.044183,0.053081,0.06104,0.068164,0.074565,0.078514,0.079544,0.077841,0.073869,0.068185,0.061343,0.053845,0.046118,0.038508,0.031274,0.024602]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.020617,0.023777,0.029532,0.035863,0.042054,0.047915,0.053429,0.05862,0.063526,0.066507,0.067079,0.06536,0.061726,0.056647,0.050594,0.044001,0.037235,0.030596,0.024308,0.018531]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.01215,0.014719,0.019171,0.024029,0.028768,0.03325,0.03746,0.04142,0.045156,0.047468,0.048005,0.046851,0.044285,0.04065,0.036292,0.03153,0.026633,0.021822,0.017261,0.013069]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.026454,-0.002338,0.030751,0.041625,0.041274,0.035307,0.026636,0.016743,0.032331,0.033857,0.028663,0.020747,0.012258,0.004323,-0.00252,-0.008069,-0.012323,-0.015388,-0.017422,-0.018606]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.165506,0.230646,0.252306,0.308566,0.393073,0.503708,0.639753,0.800837,0.852853,0.887761,0.906719,0.912352,0.907484,0.894629,0.875864,0.852851,0.826915,0.79907,0.770117,0.740684]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0404,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0755,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3121,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_my","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"MY","name":"Malaysia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001693,-0.002501,-0.004771,-0.008964,-0.015272,-0.023213,-0.032065,-0.04139,-0.049201,-0.054875,-0.057723,-0.057814,-0.055586,-0.051608,-0.046449,-0.040615,-0.034524,-0.028498,-0.022778,-0.017528]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003514,-0.004057,-0.003373,-0.004301,-0.007145,-0.011401,-0.016424,-0.021779,-0.025216,-0.028333,-0.030688,-0.031833,-0.031647,-0.030258,-0.027921,-0.024925,-0.021546,-0.018017,-0.014527,-0.011218]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.064803,0.051866,0.020612,0.01251,0.012195,0.014092,0.016433,0.018728,-0.011996,-0.022435,-0.024516,-0.023345,-0.020991,-0.018296,-0.01562,-0.013131,-0.010904,-0.00897,-0.007329,-0.005963]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.023329,0.039694,0.042425,0.041139,0.039306,0.037887,0.037033,0.036688,0.024935,0.010282,-0.003459,-0.01486,-0.023554,-0.029635,-0.033396,-0.035206,-0.035451,-0.034501,-0.032691,-0.030307]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.196374,0.255255,0.241282,0.251889,0.275646,0.307887,0.346284,0.389523,0.337208,0.299838,0.269645,0.243081,0.218671,0.195892,0.17462,0.154878,0.136715,0.12016,0.105205,0.091809]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000849,-0.002165,-0.003864,-0.006174,-0.009422,-0.013849,-0.019548,-0.026529,-0.03416,-0.041941,-0.04937,-0.056028,-0.061612,-0.065941,-0.068945,-0.07064,-0.071108,-0.070475,-0.068893,-0.066528]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.097205,-0.165393,-0.176772,-0.171411,-0.163777,-0.157863,-0.181368,-0.218366,-0.175164,-0.139326,-0.109752,-0.085588,0.09814,0.123481,0.139152,0.146692,0.147713,0.143756,0.136211,0.126277]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.017388,-0.040692,-0.072851,-0.114019,-0.164096,-0.221308,-0.283304,-0.348553,-0.32255,-0.298787,-0.274237,-0.248166,-0.220939,-0.193336,-0.166185,-0.140206,-0.115956,-0.093812,-0.074002,-0.056625]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.037188,0.037388,0.033712,0.027976,0.020977,0.013119,0.004679,-0.004125,-0.013112,-0.02066,-0.026258,-0.029912,-0.031843,-0.032347,-0.031734,-0.030293,-0.028282,-0.025919,-0.023382,-0.02081]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.002983,0.000437,-0.002784,-0.005999,-0.009012,-0.011804,-0.014409,-0.016866,-0.019215,-0.020896,-0.021776,-0.021912,-0.02143,-0.020473,-0.01918,-0.017671,-0.016048,-0.014395,-0.012773,-0.011229]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.003405,-0.004022,-0.005045,-0.006131,-0.007182,-0.008184,-0.009148,-0.010088,-0.011017,-0.011651,-0.011917,-0.011837,-0.011472,-0.010888,-0.010151,-0.009319,-0.008442,-0.007558,-0.006697,-0.005881]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8.3e-05,-0.000452,-0.001367,-0.003087,-0.00572,-0.009207,-0.013409,-0.01817,-0.023148,-0.027856,-0.03186,-0.03486,-0.036705,-0.037371,-0.036931,-0.035523,-0.033323,-0.030521,-0.027306]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.007184,0.01889,0.030776,0.041727,0.051653,0.060713,0.069091,0.076936,0.080723,0.079806,0.074644,0.066064,0.054958,0.042167,0.028434,0.01439,0.000549,-0.012683,-0.025002]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.039734,-0.067344,-0.079234,-0.090908,-0.107845,-0.129465,-0.153742,-0.179661,-0.182239,-0.173875,-0.158323,-0.138676,-0.117079,-0.095109,-0.073911,-0.054271,-0.036684,-0.021399,-0.008497,0.002068]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000199,-0.000535,-0.000932,-0.001386,-0.001925,-0.002573,-0.003341,-0.00424,-0.005151,-0.00602,-0.006812,-0.007505,-0.008091,-0.008566,-0.008936,-0.009207,-0.009391,-0.009498,-0.00954,-0.00953]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.027814,-0.047141,-0.055464,-0.063636,-0.075492,-0.090626,-0.107619,-0.125763,-0.127567,-0.121712,-0.110826,-0.097074,-0.081956,-0.066576,-0.051738,-0.03799,-0.025679,-0.014979,-0.005948,0.001448]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000275,0.000388,0.000683,0.001201,0.001943,0.002841,0.003815,0.004825,0.005568,0.006001,0.006088,0.005882,0.00546,0.004894,0.004248,0.003568,0.002893,0.002247,0.001652,0.001117]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6.8e-05,-0.000376,-0.001168,-0.002712,-0.00518,-0.008617,-0.012993,-0.018244,-0.024137,-0.030279,-0.036269,-0.041768,-0.046527,-0.050392,-0.053287,-0.055207,-0.056195,-0.056331,-0.055718]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.059217,0.076874,0.072492,0.075093,0.081063,0.088999,0.098375,0.108976,0.090483,0.076405,0.0649,0.055247,0.047116,0.040289,0.034577,0.0298,0.025798,0.022428,0.019572,0.017136]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.045362,0.036306,0.014428,0.008757,0.008537,0.009865,0.011503,0.01311,-0.008397,-0.015704,-0.017161,-0.016342,-0.014694,-0.012807,-0.010934,-0.009191,-0.007633,-0.006279,-0.00513,-0.004174]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001016,-0.001499,-0.002857,-0.005362,-0.00913,-0.013871,-0.019154,-0.024719,-0.029374,-0.032749,-0.034436,-0.034478,-0.033138,-0.030757,-0.027674,-0.02419,-0.020554,-0.016959,-0.013547,-0.010416]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000116,0.000255,0.000511,0.000984,0.001759,0.002865,0.004274,0.005936,0.00768,0.009336,0.010736,0.011762,0.012356,0.012518,0.012283,0.011714,0.010884,0.009869,0.008739,0.007558]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.2e-05,-6.4e-05,-0.000201,-0.000473,-0.000911,-0.001521,-0.002293,-0.003215,-0.004233,-0.005262,-0.006223,-0.007056,-0.007726,-0.008219,-0.008535,-0.008688,-0.008696,-0.00858,-0.008364]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,6e-06,1.2e-05,2e-05,3.1e-05,4.3e-05,5.7e-05,7e-05,8.3e-05,9.4e-05,0.000103,0.00011,0.000114,0.000116,0.000116,0.000115,0.000112]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000968,-0.00143,-0.002729,-0.005127,-0.008735,-0.013278,-0.018341,-0.023675,-0.028143,-0.031388,-0.033018,-0.03307,-0.031795,-0.02952,-0.026569,-0.023232,-0.019748,-0.016301,-0.013029,-0.010026]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.059386,-0.077215,-0.07342,-0.077244,-0.085231,-0.095883,-0.108422,-0.122432,-0.107299,-0.096182,-0.086799,-0.078231,-0.070167,-0.06254,-0.055368,-0.048688,-0.042533,-0.036922,-0.031859,-0.027336]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.005832,0.009924,0.010606,0.010285,0.009827,0.009472,0.009258,0.009172,0.006234,0.002571,-0.000865,-0.003715,-0.005888,-0.007409,-0.008349,-0.008802,-0.008863,-0.008625,-0.008173,-0.007577]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.5e-05,-8.1e-05,-0.000253,-0.000595,-0.001146,-0.001913,-0.002884,-0.004043,-0.005324,-0.006619,-0.007827,-0.008875,-0.009718,-0.010338,-0.010736,-0.010928,-0.010938,-0.010792,-0.010521]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.023329,0.039694,0.042425,0.041139,0.039306,0.037887,0.037033,0.036688,0.024935,0.010282,-0.003459,-0.01486,-0.023554,-0.029635,-0.033396,-0.035206,-0.035451,-0.034501,-0.032691,-0.030307]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00122,-0.001414,-0.001745,-0.002099,-0.002441,-0.002768,-0.003084,-0.003392,-0.003697,-0.003903,-0.003988,-0.003958,-0.003834,-0.003636,-0.003388,-0.003109,-0.002815,-0.002519,-0.002231,-0.001958]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005832,-0.009924,-0.010606,-0.010285,-0.009827,-0.009472,-0.009258,-0.009172,-0.006234,-0.002571,0.000865,0.003715,0.005888,0.007409,0.008349,0.008802,0.008863,0.008625,0.008173,0.007577]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.070657,-0.071038,-0.064053,-0.053155,-0.039856,-0.024926,-0.00889,0.007837,0.024912,0.039254,0.04989,0.056832,0.060501,0.061459,0.060294,0.057556,0.053735,0.049246,0.044426,0.039539]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.013423,-0.001967,0.012528,0.026994,0.040552,0.05312,0.064841,0.075899,0.086466,0.09403,0.097992,0.098604,0.096435,0.09213,0.086309,0.079518,0.072218,0.064777,0.057479,0.050529]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.027918,0.032982,0.041365,0.050276,0.058894,0.067111,0.075015,0.082723,0.090343,0.095539,0.097716,0.097066,0.094068,0.089279,0.083237,0.076417,0.069222,0.061973,0.054915,0.048226]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.021954,0.025457,0.031413,0.037775,0.043942,0.049831,0.055505,0.061049,0.066538,0.070263,0.071789,0.071252,0.069005,0.065454,0.060991,0.055965,0.050669,0.045338,0.040151,0.035239]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.073888,-0.071649,-0.04272,-0.042503,-0.057761,-0.082227,-0.112535,-0.146904,-0.128362,-0.124781,-0.126873,-0.130058,-0.132304,-0.132895,-0.131764,-0.129132,-0.125323,-0.120662,-0.115433,-0.109876]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.202734,0.279184,0.297661,0.358322,0.451674,0.574247,0.724374,0.901074,0.946811,0.979335,0.996682,1.00009,0.99197,0.974914,0.951274,0.923028,0.891781,0.858751,0.824879,0.790869]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0578,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1289,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3486,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_cl","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"CL","name":"Chile"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00182,-0.002633,-0.004923,-0.009229,-0.015812,-0.024226,-0.033753,-0.043916,-0.052529,-0.059026,-0.062793,-0.063869,-0.06257,-0.059318,-0.05456,-0.048735,-0.042253,-0.035481,-0.028736,-0.022276]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002365,-0.004248,-0.005079,-0.006018,-0.008095,-0.011524,-0.015988,-0.021098,-0.025025,-0.027881,-0.02976,-0.030735,-0.030825,-0.030047,-0.028456,-0.026157,-0.023299,-0.020056,-0.01661,-0.013131]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.018611,0.028478,0.025009,0.019733,0.016306,0.0151,0.015527,0.016911,0.008704,-0.000249,-0.006986,-0.011089,-0.013039,-0.013493,-0.013022,-0.012047,-0.010851,-0.00961,-0.008428,-0.007356]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0134,0.032646,0.046707,0.054167,0.057074,0.057795,0.058035,0.058747,0.053091,0.041228,0.02592,0.010031,-0.004392,-0.016227,-0.025081,-0.031045,-0.034477,-0.03585,-0.035657,-0.034352]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.09544,0.198132,0.261128,0.307098,0.350547,0.399005,0.455419,0.5204,0.541998,0.53739,0.5175,0.489268,0.457012,0.423377,0.389946,0.357641,0.326983,0.298235,0.271513,0.246836]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000574,-0.001643,-0.0033,-0.005688,-0.009025,-0.013491,-0.019176,-0.026106,-0.03381,-0.041763,-0.049438,-0.056412,-0.062385,-0.067169,-0.070671,-0.072868,-0.073802,-0.073556,-0.072252,-0.070032]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.055833,-0.136023,-0.194611,-0.225695,-0.237807,-0.240813,-0.241813,-0.244778,-0.221212,-0.171784,-0.108,-0.077514,-0.059849,0.067612,0.104505,0.129354,0.143653,0.149376,0.148572,0.143133]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.020208,-0.048482,-0.086293,-0.133524,-0.19,-0.254103,-0.32368,-0.397193,-0.35819,-0.32433,-0.292731,-0.262328,-0.232833,-0.204267,-0.176777,-0.150568,-0.125874,-0.102922,-0.08192,-0.063026]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.047321,0.052283,0.053355,0.050757,0.04524,0.037557,0.028304,0.017914,0.006691,-0.004255,-0.01389,-0.021587,-0.027135,-0.030626,-0.032333,-0.032607,-0.031811,-0.030276,-0.028286,-0.026066]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.014588,0.012302,0.009175,0.005476,0.001534,-0.002429,-0.006316,-0.010112,-0.013855,-0.017239,-0.019964,-0.021867,-0.022929,-0.023229,-0.022902,-0.022101,-0.020973,-0.019648,-0.018229,-0.016795]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000408,-0.000894,-0.00185,-0.003146,-0.004618,-0.006152,-0.007694,-0.009232,-0.01078,-0.012178,-0.013272,-0.013978,-0.014281,-0.01422,-0.013859,-0.013274,-0.012538,-0.011716,-0.010858,-0.010004]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-8.3e-05,-0.000461,-0.001425,-0.003271,-0.006142,-0.009988,-0.01467,-0.020013,-0.025654,-0.031091,-0.035871,-0.039658,-0.042244,-0.04354,-0.043554,-0.042375,-0.040152,-0.037071,-0.03334]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.0025,0.008301,0.016198,0.024918,0.033644,0.041989,0.04985,0.057267,0.062993,0.065961,0.065669,0.062139,0.055745,0.047058,0.036717,0.025349,0.01352,0.001714,-0.009679]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.025197,-0.057144,-0.086099,-0.111304,-0.136277,-0.162621,-0.190626,-0.220634,-0.234563,-0.232704,-0.217468,-0.193909,-0.166266,-0.1375,-0.109463,-0.083228,-0.059372,-0.038161,-0.01969,-0.003933]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000126,-0.000412,-0.000842,-0.001399,-0.00208,-0.002893,-0.003846,-0.00495,-0.006122,-0.007286,-0.008373,-0.009343,-0.010174,-0.010862,-0.011409,-0.011825,-0.012122,-0.012313,-0.012411,-0.012431]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.017638,-0.040001,-0.06027,-0.077913,-0.095394,-0.113835,-0.133438,-0.154444,-0.164194,-0.162893,-0.152228,-0.135736,-0.116386,-0.09625,-0.076624,-0.05826,-0.04156,-0.026713,-0.013783,-0.002753]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000319,0.000433,0.00072,0.001213,0.001905,0.002732,0.003629,0.004576,0.005231,0.005601,0.005708,0.005621,0.005394,0.005058,0.004629,0.004124,0.003561,0.002959,0.002344,0.001739]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-4.2e-05,-0.000238,-0.000753,-0.001772,-0.003414,-0.005713,-0.008646,-0.012159,-0.016094,-0.020194,-0.0242,-0.027884,-0.031068,-0.033624,-0.035477,-0.036597,-0.036995,-0.036715,-0.035826]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.01448,0.029906,0.039347,0.046112,0.052276,0.058938,0.066608,0.075479,0.077674,0.075962,0.072206,0.067581,0.062746,0.058029,0.053569,0.049405,0.045533,0.041933,0.038582,0.035462]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013028,0.019935,0.017506,0.013813,0.011414,0.01057,0.010869,0.011838,0.006093,-0.000174,-0.00489,-0.007762,-0.009128,-0.009445,-0.009115,-0.008433,-0.007595,-0.006727,-0.005899,-0.005149]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001092,-0.001578,-0.002948,-0.005521,-0.009453,-0.014476,-0.020163,-0.026229,-0.031365,-0.035232,-0.03747,-0.038102,-0.03732,-0.035375,-0.032533,-0.029055,-0.025186,-0.021144,-0.017118,-0.013262]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000177,0.000387,0.000764,0.001462,0.002617,0.00429,0.006453,0.00904,0.011792,0.014459,0.016798,0.018634,0.019866,0.020462,0.020441,0.01986,0.0188,0.017358,0.015636,0.013734]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1e-05,-5.6e-05,-0.000174,-0.000404,-0.00077,-0.001276,-0.001911,-0.002666,-0.003494,-0.004321,-0.005081,-0.005726,-0.006229,-0.006581,-0.006788,-0.006862,-0.00682,-0.006683,-0.00647]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,4e-06,1e-05,1.9e-05,3.2e-05,4.7e-05,6.6e-05,8.7e-05,0.000107,0.000126,0.000142,0.000155,0.000164,0.000169,0.00017,0.000169,0.000166,0.000161]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001101,-0.001593,-0.002978,-0.005584,-0.009566,-0.014656,-0.02042,-0.026569,-0.03178,-0.03571,-0.03799,-0.038641,-0.037855,-0.035887,-0.033009,-0.029485,-0.025563,-0.021466,-0.017385,-0.013477]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.02896,-0.059874,-0.079031,-0.093256,-0.106892,-0.122145,-0.139846,-0.160159,-0.167143,-0.165969,-0.159959,-0.151282,-0.141296,-0.130826,-0.120361,-0.110184,-0.100462,-0.091289,-0.082717,-0.074773]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00335,0.008161,0.011677,0.013542,0.014268,0.014449,0.014509,0.014687,0.013273,0.010307,0.00648,0.002508,-0.001098,-0.004057,-0.00627,-0.007761,-0.008619,-0.008963,-0.008914,-0.008588]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.3e-05,-6.9e-05,-0.000213,-0.000494,-0.000942,-0.00156,-0.002338,-0.003261,-0.004274,-0.005286,-0.006215,-0.007004,-0.007619,-0.00805,-0.008303,-0.008393,-0.008343,-0.008175,-0.007915]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0134,0.032646,0.046707,0.054167,0.057074,0.057795,0.058035,0.058747,0.053091,0.041228,0.02592,0.010031,-0.004392,-0.016227,-0.025081,-0.031045,-0.034477,-0.03585,-0.035657,-0.034352]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00068,-0.000781,-0.001044,-0.001427,-0.001875,-0.002349,-0.002832,-0.003319,-0.003815,-0.004265,-0.004619,-0.004846,-0.004942,-0.004919,-0.004797,-0.004602,-0.004356,-0.004081,-0.003793,-0.003504]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00335,-0.008161,-0.011677,-0.013542,-0.014268,-0.014449,-0.014509,-0.014687,-0.013273,-0.010307,-0.00648,-0.002508,0.001098,0.004057,0.00627,0.007761,0.008619,0.008963,0.008914,0.008588]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.08991,-0.099337,-0.101375,-0.096438,-0.085956,-0.071358,-0.053778,-0.034038,-0.012712,0.008085,0.026391,0.041016,0.051557,0.05819,0.061433,0.061954,0.06044,0.057525,0.053744,0.049526]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.065646,-0.055358,-0.041289,-0.024644,-0.006905,0.010932,0.02842,0.045505,0.062349,0.077575,0.089837,0.098403,0.10318,0.10453,0.103059,0.099455,0.09438,0.088415,0.082029,0.075577]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.003342,0.00733,0.015169,0.025798,0.037867,0.050445,0.063088,0.075703,0.088393,0.099858,0.108834,0.114621,0.117108,0.116604,0.113645,0.108849,0.102816,0.096068,0.089032,0.082032]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.012232,0.014055,0.018801,0.025695,0.033751,0.042288,0.050978,0.059749,0.068667,0.076776,0.083138,0.087231,0.088961,0.08854,0.08635,0.08283,0.078406,0.07345,0.068266,0.063081]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.021164,-0.020327,-0.066186,-0.100873,-0.135838,-0.176678,-0.225499,-0.28273,-0.334394,-0.36034,-0.369917,-0.369069,-0.361635,-0.350119,-0.336168,-0.320863,-0.304917,-0.288789,-0.272781,-0.25709]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.1018,0.222061,0.317506,0.413532,0.526574,0.665365,0.833508,1.031951,1.151601,1.216886,1.244536,1.246276,1.230311,1.202399,1.1666,1.125792,1.082048,1.036826,0.991186,0.945896]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0639,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1461,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3972,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_co","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"CO","name":"Colombia"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00196,-0.002846,-0.005397,-0.010282,-0.017839,-0.027624,-0.038839,-0.050873,-0.061264,-0.069379,-0.074481,-0.076444,-0.07546,-0.0719,-0.066232,-0.058975,-0.050663,-0.041807,-0.032864,-0.024222]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002345,-0.0043,-0.005356,-0.006538,-0.008887,-0.012706,-0.017736,-0.023577,-0.028413,-0.032191,-0.0349,-0.03653,-0.037029,-0.036361,-0.034559,-0.031739,-0.028094,-0.023862,-0.019299,-0.014652]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.017868,0.028639,0.027136,0.02266,0.018926,0.016859,0.016306,0.016811,0.009035,2.4e-05,-0.007311,-0.012238,-0.014976,-0.016047,-0.015978,-0.015202,-0.014034,-0.01269,-0.011307,-0.009971]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013401,0.033129,0.048208,0.056329,0.058995,0.058514,0.056816,0.055145,0.047464,0.033796,0.016827,-0.000496,-0.015987,-0.028429,-0.037401,-0.04303,-0.045747,-0.046119,-0.044732,-0.042124]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.135361,0.282646,0.379947,0.454848,0.525858,0.602849,0.689687,0.787316,0.827945,0.831734,0.811119,0.774484,0.727722,0.675062,0.619566,0.563448,0.508304,0.455254,0.405063,0.358224]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000604,-0.001742,-0.003533,-0.006137,-0.009787,-0.014686,-0.020939,-0.028579,-0.03712,-0.046012,-0.054689,-0.062675,-0.069602,-0.075215,-0.079357,-0.08196,-0.083034,-0.082653,-0.080946,-0.078078]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.04786,-0.118318,-0.172171,-0.201175,-0.210695,-0.208979,-0.202915,-0.196946,-0.169514,-0.1207,-0.090523,-0.070593,0.057098,0.101532,0.133576,0.153677,0.163382,0.164712,0.159757,0.150441]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.019549,-0.04755,-0.08469,-0.130821,-0.185775,-0.248163,-0.316043,-0.387872,-0.347794,-0.313627,-0.282568,-0.253236,-0.224961,-0.19746,-0.170697,-0.144807,-0.120041,-0.096703,-0.075097,-0.055487]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.047567,0.051825,0.051908,0.047986,0.040883,0.03151,0.020642,0.008865,-0.003407,-0.015058,-0.025048,-0.032743,-0.037946,-0.040792,-0.041611,-0.040825,-0.038862,-0.036115,-0.032916,-0.029528]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008728,0.00612,0.002715,-0.001251,-0.005434,-0.009572,-0.013524,-0.017247,-0.020759,-0.023777,-0.026019,-0.027333,-0.027713,-0.027262,-0.02614,-0.024528,-0.022597,-0.020497,-0.018348,-0.016242]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.002757,-0.003133,-0.003991,-0.005216,-0.006636,-0.008113,-0.009572,-0.010981,-0.012345,-0.013512,-0.014336,-0.014734,-0.014699,-0.014278,-0.013548,-0.012596,-0.011506,-0.010353,-0.009193,-0.008072]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-7.6e-05,-0.000434,-0.001372,-0.003208,-0.006132,-0.010155,-0.015175,-0.021035,-0.027395,-0.033769,-0.03967,-0.044682,-0.048496,-0.050916,-0.051857,-0.051339,-0.049468,-0.046415,-0.042399]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00245,0.008292,0.016522,0.025851,0.035288,0.044236,0.052404,0.059702,0.064934,0.067024,0.065421,0.060106,0.051461,0.040113,0.026803,0.012286,-0.002732,-0.017631,-0.031896]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.025589,-0.058539,-0.089941,-0.118079,-0.145815,-0.1746,-0.204746,-0.236605,-0.252389,-0.252198,-0.237928,-0.214256,-0.185321,-0.154155,-0.122785,-0.092521,-0.064212,-0.038406,-0.015455,0.004444]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000128,-0.000421,-0.00087,-0.001461,-0.00219,-0.003063,-0.004087,-0.00527,-0.006532,-0.007793,-0.008982,-0.010053,-0.01098,-0.011751,-0.012365,-0.012827,-0.013148,-0.01334,-0.013418,-0.013395]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.017912,-0.040978,-0.062959,-0.082655,-0.10207,-0.12222,-0.143322,-0.165624,-0.176672,-0.176538,-0.16655,-0.149979,-0.129725,-0.107909,-0.085949,-0.064764,-0.044948,-0.026884,-0.010819,0.003111]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000331,0.000458,0.000801,0.00143,0.002372,0.003564,0.004916,0.006363,0.007512,0.008323,0.008762,0.008855,0.008638,0.008149,0.007429,0.006525,0.005491,0.004383,0.003256,0.002159]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.7e-05,-0.000328,-0.00106,-0.002536,-0.004967,-0.008449,-0.012988,-0.018538,-0.024903,-0.031746,-0.038686,-0.045359,-0.051445,-0.056686,-0.060894,-0.063959,-0.065839,-0.066556,-0.066183]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.015019,0.031121,0.041379,0.048575,0.05455,0.060455,0.066974,0.074433,0.075369,0.072435,0.067573,0.062025,0.056479,0.051248,0.046435,0.042034,0.038,0.03428,0.030834,0.027629]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.012507,0.020047,0.018995,0.015862,0.013248,0.011801,0.011414,0.011768,0.006324,1.7e-05,-0.005118,-0.008566,-0.010483,-0.011233,-0.011185,-0.010642,-0.009824,-0.008883,-0.007915,-0.00698]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001176,-0.001706,-0.003233,-0.006154,-0.01067,-0.016518,-0.023219,-0.030408,-0.036612,-0.041451,-0.04449,-0.045655,-0.045062,-0.042932,-0.039543,-0.035206,-0.030238,-0.024944,-0.019599,-0.014433]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[6.1e-05,0.00013,0.000256,0.000493,0.000888,0.001458,0.00219,0.003056,0.00396,0.004818,0.00555,0.006101,0.006438,0.006552,0.006451,0.006156,0.005698,0.005116,0.004446,0.003729]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1e-05,-5.4e-05,-0.000167,-0.000391,-0.00075,-0.00125,-0.001885,-0.002646,-0.003489,-0.004346,-0.005151,-0.005853,-0.006422,-0.006846,-0.007125,-0.007269,-0.007293,-0.007214,-0.007052]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,2e-06,7e-06,1.7e-05,3.3e-05,5.6e-05,8.4e-05,0.000118,0.000155,0.000193,0.000229,0.00026,0.000285,0.000304,0.000317,0.000323,0.000324,0.000321,0.000313]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001186,-0.001722,-0.003265,-0.006221,-0.010792,-0.016713,-0.023498,-0.030778,-0.037065,-0.041974,-0.045061,-0.046248,-0.045653,-0.043499,-0.04007,-0.03568,-0.030651,-0.025293,-0.019883,-0.014654]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.041,-0.085319,-0.114848,-0.137917,-0.160083,-0.184249,-0.211501,-0.242074,-0.255179,-0.256871,-0.250905,-0.239862,-0.225553,-0.209272,-0.191956,-0.174295,-0.156803,-0.139862,-0.123749,-0.108659]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00335,0.008282,0.012052,0.014082,0.014749,0.014629,0.014204,0.013786,0.011866,0.008449,0.004207,-0.000124,-0.003997,-0.007107,-0.00935,-0.010757,-0.011437,-0.01153,-0.011183,-0.010531]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.1e-05,-6e-05,-0.000186,-0.000434,-0.000833,-0.001389,-0.002095,-0.00294,-0.003877,-0.004829,-0.005723,-0.006503,-0.007136,-0.007607,-0.007917,-0.008077,-0.008103,-0.008016,-0.007835]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013401,0.033129,0.048208,0.056329,0.058995,0.058514,0.056816,0.055145,0.047464,0.033796,0.016827,-0.000496,-0.015987,-0.028429,-0.037401,-0.04303,-0.045747,-0.046119,-0.044732,-0.042124]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000652,-0.000759,-0.001035,-0.00144,-0.001917,-0.00242,-0.002923,-0.003415,-0.003895,-0.004313,-0.004618,-0.004781,-0.0048,-0.004689,-0.004472,-0.004178,-0.003834,-0.003464,-0.003087,-0.002718]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00335,-0.008282,-0.012052,-0.014082,-0.014749,-0.014629,-0.014204,-0.013786,-0.011866,-0.008449,-0.004207,0.000124,0.003997,0.007107,0.00935,0.010757,0.011437,0.01153,0.011183,0.010531]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.090377,-0.098467,-0.098626,-0.091173,-0.077677,-0.059869,-0.03922,-0.016843,0.006473,0.028611,0.047591,0.062211,0.072098,0.077504,0.079062,0.077567,0.073838,0.068618,0.06254,0.056103]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.039276,-0.027541,-0.012215,0.005631,0.024453,0.043075,0.060859,0.07761,0.093415,0.106999,0.117086,0.122998,0.12471,0.12268,0.117632,0.110375,0.101685,0.092236,0.082568,0.07309]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.022605,0.025689,0.032727,0.042775,0.054412,0.066528,0.078486,0.090048,0.101227,0.110802,0.117555,0.120821,0.120535,0.117081,0.111093,0.103287,0.094353,0.084892,0.075384,0.066191]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.011744,0.013665,0.018622,0.025918,0.034507,0.043566,0.052615,0.061464,0.070106,0.077627,0.083117,0.086066,0.086409,0.084406,0.080504,0.075211,0.069019,0.062359,0.055575,0.048928]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.033519,-0.120772,-0.199284,-0.263359,-0.32725,-0.398657,-0.480698,-0.574271,-0.642799,-0.675571,-0.682755,-0.67157,-0.647467,-0.614644,-0.576332,-0.534988,-0.492467,-0.450125,-0.40894,-0.369594]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.141721,0.306575,0.436326,0.561282,0.701885,0.869209,1.067777,1.298868,1.437548,1.511231,1.538155,1.531493,1.501021,1.454085,1.396221,1.331599,1.263369,1.193844,1.124737,1.057284]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0764,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1547,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3879,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_ng","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"NG","name":"Nigeria"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.001234,-0.002011,-0.004323,-0.00855,-0.014628,-0.021986,-0.029859,-0.037653,-0.043705,-0.047502,-0.048398,-0.046216,-0.041205,-0.033915,-0.025065,-0.015424,-0.005726,0.0034,0.011459,0.018108]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.002618,-0.002855,-0.002417,-0.003314,-0.005675,-0.009051,-0.012913,-0.01685,-0.019317,-0.0213,-0.022472,-0.022408,-0.020917,-0.018063,-0.014095,-0.00937,-0.004281,0.000791,0.005515,0.009631]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.025137,0.01823,0.007254,0.004003,0.002685,0.001651,0.000601,-0.000426,-0.011658,-0.015818,-0.017072,-0.01683,-0.015626,-0.01376,-0.01147,-0.008967,-0.006429,-0.004,-0.001782,0.000152]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.018099,0.027949,0.026886,0.022543,0.017338,0.011753,0.005912,-1.7e-05,-0.013228,-0.027067,-0.0385,-0.046369,-0.050404,-0.050815,-0.0481,-0.042915,-0.035979,-0.027997,-0.019604,-0.011339]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.179549,0.234688,0.233702,0.246141,0.265489,0.289477,0.316906,0.346982,0.305561,0.271077,0.239139,0.208105,0.1776,0.147819,0.119199,0.092248,0.067438,0.045151,0.025649,0.00907]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00057,-0.001427,-0.002556,-0.004164,-0.006482,-0.009648,-0.013677,-0.018492,-0.023618,-0.028673,-0.033266,-0.037035,-0.039682,-0.041014,-0.04095,-0.039518,-0.036842,-0.033121,-0.028599,-0.023548]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.045246,-0.069873,-0.067215,-0.056357,-0.061506,-0.079444,-0.098555,-0.118659,-0.095184,-0.075709,0.096251,0.115922,0.126009,0.127038,0.12025,0.107288,0.089948,0.069992,0.049011,0.028347]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.0212,-0.054134,-0.096896,-0.148476,-0.207846,-0.27338,-0.343245,-0.415958,-0.355142,-0.302727,-0.255897,-0.212985,-0.173165,-0.136183,-0.102134,-0.071294,-0.043985,-0.020481,-0.000951,0.014576]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016308,0.012392,0.005515,-0.002658,-0.011272,-0.01974,-0.027561,-0.034313,-0.039675,-0.042519,-0.042635,-0.040273,-0.035894,-0.030046,-0.023289,-0.016144,-0.009062,-0.002408,0.003549,0.008631]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.014093,-0.015179,-0.016414,-0.017305,-0.017745,-0.01775,-0.017354,-0.016598,-0.01552,-0.013795,-0.011421,-0.008541,-0.005351,-0.002052,0.001171,0.004159,0.006794,0.008991,0.010707,0.011929]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.000711,-0.001103,-0.001766,-0.002422,-0.002985,-0.00343,-0.003746,-0.003922,-0.003955,-0.003661,-0.003023,-0.002099,-0.000979,0.000243,0.001477,0.002645,0.003685,0.004554,0.005226,0.00569]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6.1e-05,-0.000332,-0.000996,-0.002211,-0.004047,-0.00647,-0.009376,-0.012623,-0.015985,-0.019144,-0.021772,-0.023585,-0.024389,-0.024086,-0.022686,-0.020282,-0.01704,-0.01317,-0.008907]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00393,0.009715,0.015032,0.019255,0.022186,0.023726,0.023816,0.022453,0.018085,0.01073,0.000978,-0.010365,-0.022427,-0.034362,-0.04541,-0.054941,-0.062486,-0.067738,-0.070559]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.030602,-0.048327,-0.054718,-0.061904,-0.072885,-0.086289,-0.099966,-0.11269,-0.107949,-0.095453,-0.07783,-0.056803,-0.033893,-0.01062,0.01159,0.031523,0.048252,0.061175,0.070002,0.074735]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000153,-0.000395,-0.000668,-0.000978,-0.001342,-0.001774,-0.002273,-0.002837,-0.003377,-0.003854,-0.004243,-0.004527,-0.004697,-0.00475,-0.004692,-0.004534,-0.004293,-0.003987,-0.003637,-0.003263]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.021421,-0.033829,-0.038303,-0.043333,-0.051019,-0.060402,-0.069976,-0.078883,-0.075565,-0.066817,-0.054481,-0.039762,-0.023725,-0.007434,0.008113,0.022066,0.033776,0.042823,0.049002,0.052314]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000193,0.000274,0.000481,0.000798,0.00116,0.001505,0.001791,0.001991,0.001885,0.00151,0.000924,0.000179,-0.00068,-0.001612,-0.002572,-0.003511,-0.00438,-0.005131,-0.005726,-0.00614]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-0.00011,-0.000609,-0.001862,-0.004216,-0.007889,-0.012919,-0.019213,-0.026594,-0.034704,-0.042988,-0.050817,-0.057593,-0.062826,-0.066179,-0.067482,-0.066728,-0.064053,-0.059699,-0.053988]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.018029,0.023353,0.02247,0.021922,0.020729,0.018777,0.016372,0.013789,0.003744,-0.005238,-0.012706,-0.018347,-0.022152,-0.024335,-0.025213,-0.025112,-0.024325,-0.023084,-0.021566,-0.019898]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.017596,0.012761,0.005078,0.002802,0.001879,0.001155,0.000421,-0.000298,-0.008161,-0.011073,-0.01195,-0.011781,-0.010938,-0.009632,-0.008029,-0.006277,-0.0045,-0.0028,-0.001248,0.000107]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00074,-0.001206,-0.002589,-0.005117,-0.008748,-0.013143,-0.017843,-0.022493,-0.026097,-0.02835,-0.028868,-0.027548,-0.024539,-0.02017,-0.01487,-0.0091,-0.003297,0.002161,0.006978,0.010951]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[3.4e-05,7.7e-05,0.000167,0.000338,0.00061,0.000978,0.001417,0.001896,0.002351,0.002728,0.002978,0.003066,0.002979,0.002723,0.002323,0.001815,0.001242,0.000645,6.4e-05,-0.000628]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1e-05,-5.6e-05,-0.000182,-0.000441,-0.000872,-0.00149,-0.002292,-0.003267,-0.004365,-0.005504,-0.006598,-0.007578,-0.008396,-0.009029,-0.009469,-0.009724,-0.009811,-0.009751,-0.009568]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,1e-06,8e-06,2.6e-05,6.3e-05,0.000124,0.000212,0.000327,0.000466,0.000622,0.000785,0.000941,0.00108,0.001197,0.001287,0.00135,0.001386,0.001399,0.00139,0.001364]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000611,-0.000996,-0.00214,-0.004232,-0.007241,-0.010883,-0.01478,-0.018638,-0.021634,-0.023514,-0.023957,-0.022877,-0.020396,-0.016788,-0.012407,-0.007635,-0.002834,0.001683,0.005672,0.008963]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.053988,-0.070585,-0.070435,-0.0744,-0.080488,-0.087977,-0.096472,-0.105712,-0.09331,-0.082811,-0.072918,-0.063167,-0.053473,-0.043924,-0.034686,-0.02595,-0.017894,-0.010667,-0.004377,0.000916]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.004525,0.006987,0.006722,0.005636,0.004334,0.002938,0.001478,-4e-06,-0.003307,-0.006767,-0.009625,-0.011592,-0.012601,-0.012704,-0.012025,-0.010729,-0.008995,-0.006999,-0.004901,-0.002835]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5e-06,-3.1e-05,-0.000101,-0.000243,-0.000481,-0.000822,-0.001265,-0.001803,-0.002409,-0.003037,-0.003641,-0.004182,-0.004634,-0.004983,-0.005226,-0.005366,-0.005414,-0.005381,-0.00528]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.018099,0.027949,0.026886,0.022543,0.017338,0.011753,0.005912,-1.7e-05,-0.013228,-0.027067,-0.0385,-0.046369,-0.050404,-0.050815,-0.0481,-0.042915,-0.035979,-0.027997,-0.019604,-0.011339]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.00044,-0.000591,-0.000824,-0.001048,-0.001235,-0.001378,-0.001475,-0.001523,-0.001522,-0.00141,-0.001183,-0.000861,-0.000473,-5.2e-05,0.000373,0.000775,0.001133,0.001433,0.001667,0.00183]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.004525,-0.006987,-0.006722,-0.005636,-0.004334,-0.002938,-0.001478,4e-06,0.003307,0.006767,0.009625,0.011592,0.012601,0.012704,0.012025,0.010729,0.008995,0.006999,0.004901,0.002835]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.030985,-0.023545,-0.010478,0.005051,0.021417,0.037506,0.052366,0.065194,0.075382,0.080785,0.081006,0.076519,0.068199,0.057088,0.044249,0.030673,0.017218,0.004575,-0.006744,-0.016398]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.063417,0.068304,0.073863,0.077873,0.079854,0.079873,0.078094,0.074689,0.069839,0.062076,0.051393,0.038436,0.02408,0.009233,-0.005268,-0.018717,-0.030571,-0.04046,-0.048181,-0.053678]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.005827,0.009047,0.014481,0.019859,0.024476,0.028129,0.030715,0.032162,0.032433,0.030022,0.024788,0.017216,0.008027,-0.001995,-0.012114,-0.021691,-0.03022,-0.037345,-0.042851,-0.046654]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.007927,0.010642,0.014831,0.018855,0.022224,0.024809,0.026552,0.027417,0.02739,0.02538,0.021294,0.015494,0.008514,0.00093,-0.006712,-0.013944,-0.020395,-0.025802,-0.030007,-0.032949]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.063727,-0.062047,-0.046224,-0.045307,-0.051449,-0.061378,-0.073414,-0.086649,-0.068902,-0.058078,-0.049067,-0.039666,-0.029155,-0.017578,-0.005349,0.006974,0.018827,0.029722,0.039288,0.047276]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.185909,0.258616,0.29008,0.352574,0.441516,0.555837,0.694996,0.858533,0.915164,0.950574,0.966175,0.965114,0.950899,0.926841,0.895854,0.860398,0.822503,0.783741,0.745323,0.70813]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0484,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":-0.0022,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.416,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_no","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"NO","name":"Norway"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000737,-0.001254,-0.002975,-0.006629,-0.01277,-0.021107,-0.030792,-0.041135,-0.050937,-0.059063,-0.064269,-0.066233,-0.065253,-0.061928,-0.05693,-0.050885,-0.044322,-0.037651,-0.031175,-0.025108]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000794,-0.00158,-0.002459,-0.003948,-0.006582,-0.010447,-0.015234,-0.020584,-0.025769,-0.030262,-0.033468,-0.035132,-0.03529,-0.034152,-0.032009,-0.029162,-0.025885,-0.022409,-0.018919,-0.015554]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.008688,0.014234,0.014391,0.012645,0.010672,0.009152,0.008277,0.008001,0.004594,0.000627,-0.002688,-0.004972,-0.006265,-0.006776,-0.006749,-0.006396,-0.005881,-0.005318,-0.004777,-0.004295]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003909,0.010086,0.015646,0.019411,0.021154,0.021116,0.019741,0.017487,0.013121,0.006726,-0.000874,-0.008695,-0.015914,-0.021987,-0.02664,-0.02982,-0.031625,-0.032238,-0.031886,-0.030801]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.052652,0.111043,0.155809,0.195499,0.236525,0.281873,0.331953,0.386501,0.423483,0.446419,0.456086,0.453627,0.440989,0.420559,0.394748,0.365708,0.3352,0.304566,0.274768,0.246451]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000144,-0.000433,-0.000989,-0.001993,-0.003677,-0.00623,-0.009744,-0.014233,-0.019553,-0.025441,-0.031514,-0.037388,-0.042747,-0.047365,-0.051108,-0.053924,-0.05582,-0.056848,-0.057089,-0.056639]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.027571,-0.073018,-0.12905,-0.193353,-0.264603,-0.341775,-0.423992,-0.510481,-0.409488,-0.325708,-0.256571,-0.200082,-0.154486,0.137418,0.166501,0.186378,0.197653,0.201487,0.199288,0.192507]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.014439,-0.036701,-0.066522,-0.104421,-0.151002,-0.205145,-0.264584,-0.327452,-0.301964,-0.280801,-0.260043,-0.238063,-0.214701,-0.190515,-0.16628,-0.142732,-0.120465,-0.099885,-0.081247,-0.064671]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016069,0.01722,0.0168,0.014735,0.011222,0.006588,0.001201,-0.004597,-0.01051,-0.016104,-0.020974,-0.024851,-0.027614,-0.029275,-0.029935,-0.02975,-0.028899,-0.027559,-0.02589,-0.024032]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.004104,-0.00576,-0.007627,-0.009668,-0.011789,-0.013892,-0.015892,-0.01773,-0.019371,-0.020716,-0.021674,-0.022192,-0.022266,-0.021932,-0.021254,-0.020307,-0.019169,-0.017911,-0.016595,-0.015273]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.009043,-0.009254,-0.00961,-0.010096,-0.010666,-0.011272,-0.011868,-0.012423,-0.012914,-0.01329,-0.0135,-0.013514,-0.013327,-0.012956,-0.012428,-0.01178,-0.01105,-0.010272,-0.009475,-0.008685]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-6.1e-05,-0.000359,-0.001172,-0.002838,-0.005588,-0.00946,-0.014365,-0.020147,-0.02644,-0.032686,-0.038336,-0.042975,-0.046349,-0.048362,-0.049043,-0.048508,-0.046928,-0.044498,-0.041423]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.00093,0.003229,0.006665,0.010811,0.015255,0.019678,0.023865,0.027688,0.030708,0.03251,0.032843,0.03164,0.028981,0.025053,0.020095,0.014369,0.008128,0.001603,-0.005005]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007928,-0.019151,-0.033492,-0.051252,-0.073473,-0.098849,-0.125131,-0.151246,-0.171471,-0.182842,-0.18302,-0.173508,-0.156994,-0.136263,-0.113674,-0.091006,-0.069487,-0.04986,-0.032532,-0.017658]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-4e-05,-0.000135,-0.000303,-0.000559,-0.000926,-0.001421,-0.002046,-0.002803,-0.00366,-0.004574,-0.005489,-0.006357,-0.007142,-0.007823,-0.008391,-0.008846,-0.009194,-0.009443,-0.009606,-0.009694]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.005549,-0.013406,-0.023444,-0.035877,-0.051431,-0.069195,-0.087591,-0.105872,-0.120029,-0.12799,-0.128114,-0.121456,-0.109896,-0.095384,-0.079572,-0.063704,-0.048641,-0.034902,-0.022773,-0.01236]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000157,8.1e-05,-0.000277,-0.001104,-0.002536,-0.00452,-0.006867,-0.009416,-0.012242,-0.015029,-0.017312,-0.018779,-0.01934,-0.019079,-0.018169,-0.016808,-0.015185,-0.013455,-0.011735,-0.010106]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,1.1e-05,6.6e-05,0.00022,0.000543,0.001093,0.001896,0.002954,0.004254,0.005743,0.007324,0.008892,0.010353,0.01164,0.012707,0.013533,0.014113,0.014456,0.014581,0.014512]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.007964,0.016215,0.020928,0.022431,0.020977,0.017337,0.012598,0.007573,-0.000618,-0.009881,-0.018046,-0.023829,-0.026844,-0.027304,-0.025732,-0.02274,-0.018911,-0.014729,-0.010562,-0.00667]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006081,0.009964,0.010074,0.008851,0.00747,0.006406,0.005794,0.005601,0.003216,0.000439,-0.001882,-0.00348,-0.004385,-0.004743,-0.004724,-0.004477,-0.004117,-0.003723,-0.003344,-0.003006]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000442,-0.000751,-0.00178,-0.003964,-0.007634,-0.012615,-0.018402,-0.024582,-0.030436,-0.035286,-0.038391,-0.039558,-0.038968,-0.036977,-0.033989,-0.030377,-0.026455,-0.02247,-0.018602,-0.014978]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000114,0.000286,0.00069,0.001579,0.003243,0.005866,0.009465,0.013948,0.019054,0.024398,0.02948,0.03385,0.037194,0.039354,0.040308,0.040133,0.038977,0.037017,0.034446,0.031448]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.7e-05,-0.0001,-0.00033,-0.000811,-0.001624,-0.0028,-0.004337,-0.006214,-0.008338,-0.010546,-0.012672,-0.01458,-0.016178,-0.017418,-0.018289,-0.018805,-0.018998,-0.018909,-0.018585]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,4e-06,1.1e-05,2.1e-05,3.7e-05,5.7e-05,8.1e-05,0.000109,0.000138,0.000165,0.00019,0.000211,0.000227,0.000239,0.000246,0.000248,0.000247,0.000243]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000422,-0.000717,-0.001702,-0.003792,-0.007305,-0.012073,-0.017613,-0.023529,-0.029136,-0.033784,-0.036762,-0.037885,-0.037325,-0.035423,-0.032564,-0.029106,-0.025352,-0.021536,-0.017832,-0.014362]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.015928,-0.033499,-0.047085,-0.059308,-0.072138,-0.086444,-0.102273,-0.119489,-0.131302,-0.138685,-0.1418,-0.141015,-0.136972,-0.130451,-0.122228,-0.112991,-0.1033,-0.093579,-0.084133,-0.075167]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000977,0.002521,0.003912,0.004853,0.005289,0.005279,0.004935,0.004372,0.00328,0.001681,-0.000219,-0.002174,-0.003979,-0.005497,-0.00666,-0.007455,-0.007906,-0.008059,-0.007972,-0.0077]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.1e-05,-0.000126,-0.000416,-0.00102,-0.002041,-0.00352,-0.005453,-0.007813,-0.010483,-0.013259,-0.015932,-0.01833,-0.020339,-0.021899,-0.022994,-0.023643,-0.023885,-0.023774,-0.023365]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003909,0.010086,0.015646,0.019411,0.021154,0.021116,0.019741,0.017487,0.013121,0.006726,-0.000874,-0.008695,-0.015914,-0.021987,-0.02664,-0.02982,-0.031625,-0.032238,-0.031886,-0.030801]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.003203,-0.003235,-0.003318,-0.003448,-0.003609,-0.003785,-0.00396,-0.004125,-0.00427,-0.00438,-0.004436,-0.004428,-0.004356,-0.004223,-0.004039,-0.003817,-0.003568,-0.003304,-0.003034,-0.002767]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000977,-0.002521,-0.003912,-0.004853,-0.005289,-0.005279,-0.004935,-0.004372,-0.00328,-0.001681,0.000219,0.002174,0.003979,0.005497,0.00666,0.007455,0.007906,0.008059,0.007972,0.0077]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.030531,-0.032718,-0.03192,-0.027997,-0.021322,-0.012518,-0.002281,0.008734,0.01997,0.030597,0.039851,0.047216,0.052466,0.055622,0.056876,0.056526,0.054909,0.052362,0.049191,0.045661]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.018469,0.025918,0.034323,0.043506,0.053051,0.062513,0.071514,0.079786,0.087168,0.093223,0.097534,0.099864,0.100197,0.098696,0.095644,0.091383,0.086259,0.080597,0.074678,0.068726]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.074151,0.075886,0.078805,0.082785,0.087463,0.092429,0.097321,0.101869,0.105897,0.108977,0.110696,0.110812,0.109282,0.106235,0.10191,0.096599,0.09061,0.084226,0.077696,0.071218]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.057661,0.058227,0.059723,0.062056,0.064958,0.068123,0.071286,0.074244,0.076865,0.078832,0.07984,0.079708,0.078402,0.076012,0.072708,0.068705,0.064222,0.059466,0.054615,0.049815]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.031936,0.040674,0.034429,0.025988,0.013489,-0.003118,-0.022541,-0.04361,-0.076972,-0.105642,-0.126657,-0.138591,-0.141705,-0.137333,-0.127247,-0.113231,-0.09685,-0.07936,-0.0617,-0.044532]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.059012,0.134972,0.212188,0.301933,0.412552,0.548233,0.710042,0.898053,1.033086,1.125916,1.183122,1.210636,1.214287,1.199581,1.171403,1.133859,1.090266,1.043156,0.994441,0.945511]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0662,"GDP_peak_quarter":12,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.0836,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3275,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}
{"record_id":"irf_v64_us_hike_200_ch","model":{"name":"global_macro","engine":"global_macro_v64","contract":"v6.4"},"question":"US policy rate +200bp","shock":{"id":"us_hike_200","spec":{"monetary":{"US":200.0}},"units":{"monetary":"bp_deviation"},"held_fixed":{"oil":80.0,"metals":0.0,"risk_premium":0.0,"vix":15.0,"housing":{},"fiscal":{},"tfp":{},"bank_equity":{},"equity":{},"sovereign_spread":{},"bilateral_tariffs":[]}},"country":{"iso2":"CH","name":"Switzerland"},"horizon":{"freq":"Q","n":20},"series":{"Y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000769,-0.001179,-0.002604,-0.005916,-0.011885,-0.020176,-0.029673,-0.039479,-0.048221,-0.054366,-0.056715,-0.055614,-0.052031,-0.047,-0.041366,-0.035713,-0.030402,-0.025608,-0.021397,-0.017766]},"C":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000655,-0.001295,-0.002142,-0.003815,-0.006993,-0.011718,-0.017438,-0.023563,-0.029244,-0.033538,-0.035625,-0.035513,-0.033684,-0.030758,-0.027293,-0.023705,-0.020267,-0.017125,-0.014343,-0.011931]},"pi_cpi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.013663,0.023278,0.024316,0.021744,0.018313,0.015448,0.013728,0.013178,0.007717,0.001243,-0.004198,-0.007972,-0.010138,-0.011024,-0.011007,-0.010423,-0.009531,-0.008518,-0.007504,-0.006565]},"i":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003279,0.008784,0.014207,0.018474,0.021283,0.022778,0.023316,0.023287,0.021613,0.01822,0.013628,0.008499,0.003405,-0.001254,-0.005248,-0.008483,-0.010962,-0.012747,-0.013934,-0.014626]},"RER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.075906,0.157571,0.212852,0.25162,0.281092,0.307054,0.333755,0.363688,0.36553,0.350648,0.327444,0.301053,0.274463,0.249285,0.226282,0.205707,0.187516,0.171516,0.157439,0.144999]},"P_H":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000141,-0.000406,-0.000908,-0.001845,-0.00349,-0.006066,-0.009655,-0.014237,-0.019607,-0.025392,-0.031096,-0.036305,-0.040748,-0.044296,-0.046933,-0.048715,-0.049737,-0.050109,-0.049944,-0.049343]},"Q_B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.03043,-0.080592,-0.142436,-0.213409,-0.292049,-0.377227,-0.467972,-0.563433,-0.451964,-0.359493,-0.283184,-0.220836,-0.170511,-0.130416,-0.098893,-0.074434,0.076732,0.089231,0.097535,0.102385]},"equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.012689,-0.030168,-0.055379,-0.090991,-0.139609,-0.199544,-0.266037,-0.335243,-0.334816,-0.330017,-0.315179,-0.291006,-0.26076,-0.228004,-0.195577,-0.165337,-0.138285,-0.114752,-0.094682,-0.0778]},"y2":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.016926,0.019218,0.020397,0.020325,0.019078,0.016843,0.013839,0.010269,0.006298,0.002226,-0.001645,-0.00509,-0.007981,-0.010273,-0.011984,-0.01317,-0.013909,-0.014284,-0.014376,-0.014257]},"y5":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.006676,0.005766,0.004579,0.003132,0.001489,-0.000274,-0.002087,-0.003902,-0.00569,-0.007371,-0.008858,-0.010094,-0.011053,-0.011737,-0.012169,-0.012384,-0.012419,-0.012313,-0.0121,-0.011811]},"y10":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.002397,-0.002666,-0.003064,-0.00359,-0.004214,-0.0049,-0.005615,-0.006336,-0.007049,-0.007712,-0.008283,-0.008733,-0.009048,-0.00923,-0.009289,-0.009242,-0.00911,-0.008911,-0.008662,-0.00838]},"N":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-5.6e-05,-0.000362,-0.00129,-0.003321,-0.00674,-0.011484,-0.017272,-0.02375,-0.030208,-0.03576,-0.039795,-0.042071,-0.042652,-0.041793,-0.039832,-0.03711,-0.033933,-0.030547,-0.027139]},"w":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,0.001442,0.005114,0.010764,0.017779,0.025525,0.033514,0.041443,0.049175,0.056085,0.06155,0.065176,0.066827,0.066578,0.064642,0.061308,0.056891,0.051692,0.045984,0.039999]},"I":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.007072,-0.01688,-0.029998,-0.047511,-0.071014,-0.098688,-0.127174,-0.154771,-0.175544,-0.184951,-0.180764,-0.1665,-0.146347,-0.12386,-0.101547,-0.080924,-0.062756,-0.047255,-0.034349,-0.023797]},"K":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-3.5e-05,-0.00012,-0.00027,-0.000507,-0.000862,-0.001356,-0.001992,-0.002766,-0.003643,-0.004568,-0.005472,-0.006304,-0.007036,-0.007655,-0.008163,-0.008568,-0.008882,-0.009118,-0.00929,-0.009409]},"Q":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00495,-0.011816,-0.020999,-0.033258,-0.04971,-0.069082,-0.089022,-0.10834,-0.122881,-0.129465,-0.126535,-0.11655,-0.102443,-0.086702,-0.071083,-0.056647,-0.043929,-0.033079,-0.024045,-0.016658]},"G":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.000154,0.000235,0.000519,0.001179,0.002368,0.004019,0.00591,0.007863,0.009602,0.010823,0.011286,0.011062,0.010345,0.00934,0.008217,0.007091,0.006034,0.005082,0.004245,0.003524]},"B":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.5e-05,-9.6e-05,-0.000351,-0.000927,-0.00194,-0.003422,-0.005344,-0.007642,-0.010143,-0.012601,-0.014806,-0.016624,-0.017995,-0.018919,-0.01943,-0.019586,-0.019445,-0.019069,-0.018513]},"NX":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.015274,0.031696,0.043079,0.051576,0.05878,0.065781,0.073216,0.081409,0.083891,0.082629,0.079003,0.073997,0.068322,0.062469,0.05676,0.05139,0.046457,0.041997,0.038004,0.034446]},"pi":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.009564,0.016294,0.017022,0.015221,0.012819,0.010814,0.009609,0.009224,0.005402,0.00087,-0.002938,-0.00558,-0.007097,-0.007717,-0.007705,-0.007296,-0.006672,-0.005962,-0.005253,-0.004596]},"mc":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000461,-0.000706,-0.001558,-0.003536,-0.007103,-0.012057,-0.017731,-0.023588,-0.028806,-0.032468,-0.033858,-0.033187,-0.031034,-0.028021,-0.024651,-0.021274,-0.018103,-0.015245,-0.012735,-0.010573]},"unemployment":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.000119,0.000278,0.000626,0.001418,0.002976,0.005508,0.009006,0.013324,0.018134,0.022934,0.027138,0.03033,0.032329,0.033148,0.03293,0.03188,0.030216,0.028142,0.02583,0.023418]},"credit_supply":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-1.7e-05,-0.000112,-0.000398,-0.001033,-0.002143,-0.003777,-0.005923,-0.008536,-0.011425,-0.014296,-0.016891,-0.01904,-0.020663,-0.021751,-0.022344,-0.022506,-0.022311,-0.021835,-0.021144]},"lending_spread":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.0,0.0,1e-06,3e-06,8e-06,1.7e-05,3.1e-05,4.8e-05,7e-05,9.3e-05,0.000117,0.000138,0.000155,0.000169,0.000177,0.000182,0.000184,0.000182,0.000178,0.000172]},"gdp_services":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.000609,-0.000934,-0.002062,-0.004686,-0.009413,-0.015979,-0.023501,-0.031267,-0.038191,-0.043058,-0.044918,-0.044046,-0.041209,-0.037224,-0.032762,-0.028285,-0.024078,-0.020282,-0.016947,-0.014071]},"gdp_manufacturing":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.022941,-0.047482,-0.064192,-0.076134,-0.085576,-0.094211,-0.103165,-0.113067,-0.114265,-0.109978,-0.102651,-0.094002,-0.085144,-0.076736,-0.069109,-0.062381,-0.056541,-0.051505,-0.047162,-0.04339]},"r":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.00082,0.002196,0.003552,0.004618,0.005321,0.005695,0.005829,0.005822,0.005403,0.004555,0.003407,0.002125,0.000851,-0.000314,-0.001312,-0.002121,-0.00274,-0.003187,-0.003483,-0.003657]},"bank_equity":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.0,-2.2e-05,-0.000143,-0.000507,-0.001318,-0.002736,-0.004822,-0.007562,-0.010897,-0.014585,-0.018251,-0.021563,-0.024307,-0.026378,-0.027768,-0.028524,-0.028731,-0.028483,-0.027874,-0.026993]},"vix":{"unit":"index_level","path":[15.010938,15.044417,15.116659,15.236153,15.405954,15.607039,15.817952,16.031789,16.14995,16.247671,16.292111,16.28033,16.222364,16.132143,16.023045,15.906065,15.789377,15.678472,15.576696,15.485745]},"y3m":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[0.003279,0.008784,0.014207,0.018474,0.021283,0.022778,0.023316,0.023287,0.021613,0.01822,0.013628,0.008499,0.003405,-0.001254,-0.005248,-0.008483,-0.010962,-0.012747,-0.013934,-0.014626]},"y30":{"unit":"pp_dev","path":[-0.001774,-0.001799,-0.00187,-0.001986,-0.002139,-0.002314,-0.002502,-0.002695,-0.002888,-0.003067,-0.003218,-0.00333,-0.0034,-0.003428,-0.003416,-0.003372,-0.0033,-0.003208,-0.0031,-0.002983]},"Q_B_3m":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.00082,-0.002196,-0.003552,-0.004618,-0.005321,-0.005695,-0.005829,-0.005822,-0.005403,-0.004555,-0.003407,-0.002125,-0.000851,0.000314,0.001312,0.002121,0.00274,0.003187,0.003483,0.003657]},"Q_B_2y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.032159,-0.036514,-0.038755,-0.038617,-0.036248,-0.032002,-0.026295,-0.019511,-0.011965,-0.004229,0.003126,0.009672,0.015164,0.019519,0.022769,0.025023,0.026428,0.02714,0.027315,0.027088]},"Q_B_5y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.030042,-0.025945,-0.020607,-0.014094,-0.006698,0.001232,0.00939,0.017557,0.025605,0.033167,0.039862,0.045424,0.049738,0.052817,0.054763,0.055728,0.055885,0.055407,0.05445,0.05315]},"Q_B_10y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.019658,0.021863,0.025129,0.029437,0.034553,0.040178,0.046043,0.051955,0.057798,0.063237,0.067922,0.071611,0.074194,0.075682,0.076167,0.075788,0.074702,0.073068,0.07103,0.068712]},"Q_B_30y":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.031932,0.032383,0.033662,0.035756,0.038493,0.041654,0.045042,0.048514,0.051983,0.055204,0.057917,0.059944,0.061202,0.061697,0.061493,0.06069,0.059401,0.057739,0.055809,0.053698]},"NEER":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[-0.003267,-0.023674,-0.040749,-0.047697,-0.048211,-0.045659,-0.042734,-0.04095,-0.034188,-0.018081,0.001651,0.021786,0.040617,0.057347,0.07171,0.08375,0.09368,0.101775,0.108344,0.113688]},"USD":{"unit":"pct_dev_from_baseline","path":[0.082266,0.1815,0.269231,0.358053,0.457119,0.573413,0.711844,0.87524,0.975133,1.030145,1.05448,1.058062,1.047761,1.028308,1.002937,0.973858,0.942581,0.910106,0.877113,0.844059]},"P_energy":{"unit":"USD/bbl (level)","path":[80.0,79.997803,79.989247,79.970281,79.937896,79.893473,79.841372,79.785224,79.727152,79.673765,79.633669,79.61139,79.607213,79.618662,79.642,79.673289,79.708984,79.746216,79.782836,79.817352]},"P_metals":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999122,99.995574,99.987392,99.972963,99.952678,99.928524,99.902409,99.875656,99.851587,99.834254,99.825646,99.825688,99.833018,99.845735,99.861905,99.879829,99.898163,99.915917,99.932416]},"P_food":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.998781,99.993828,99.982387,99.962173,99.933405,99.898352,99.859332,99.818052,99.778768,99.747013,99.726195,99.717267,99.719392,99.730712,99.748968,99.771894,99.797454,99.823942,99.850017]},"P_gas":{"unit":"USD/mmBtu (level)","path":[4.0,3.999834,3.999191,3.997767,3.99534,3.992013,3.988113,3.983907,3.97955,3.975534,3.972501,3.970794,3.970436,3.971244,3.972941,3.975235,3.977861,3.980607,3.983313,3.985869]},"P_copper":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.99929,99.996433,99.989863,99.978292,99.962058,99.942781,99.921982,99.9007,99.881609,99.867971,99.861348,99.861623,99.867647,99.877862,99.890707,99.904833,99.919192,99.933026,99.945832]},"P_wheat":{"unit":"index (level)","path":[100.0,99.999344,99.996733,99.990831,99.98063,99.966504,99.949867,99.932028,99.913879,99.897637,99.886046,99.880511,99.881059,99.886815,99.896483,99.908694,99.922196,99.935964,99.949215,99.961392]},"P_gold":{"unit":"USD/oz (level)","path":[1997.968843,1996.064937,1995.578599,1996.804017,1999.948154,2004.065113,2008.089333,2011.728047,2024.230459,2034.612549,2041.287082,2044.242372,2044.138756,2041.824881,2038.102258,2033.629617,2028.901942,2024.260323,2019.922318,2016.010146]}},"summary":{"GDP_peak_pct":-0.0567,"GDP_peak_quarter":11,"CPI_3yr_pp":0.1405,"CPI_3yr_definition":"sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12","equity_peak_pct":-0.3352,"equity_peak_quarter":8},"qa_checks":{"json_matches_peaks":true,"complete_q1_q20":true,"no_nan":true,"rer_sign":"increase=real_depreciation","ok":true,"reasons":[]}}