{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_us_hike_200_ca",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "US policy rate +200bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "us_hike_200",
    "spec": {
      "monetary": {
        "US": 200.0
      }
    },
    "units": {
      "monetary": "bp_deviation"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "CA",
    "name": "Canada"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000847,
        -0.00212,
        -0.006541,
        -0.015788,
        -0.03088,
        -0.050494,
        -0.072351,
        -0.095066,
        -0.117058,
        -0.135225,
        -0.14656,
        -0.150724,
        -0.14863,
        -0.141634,
        -0.131112,
        -0.118291,
        -0.104187,
        -0.089605,
        -0.075162,
        -0.061315
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.005241,
        -0.00962,
        -0.011124,
        -0.013624,
        -0.019982,
        -0.030368,
        -0.043433,
        -0.057876,
        -0.069672,
        -0.078903,
        -0.085181,
        -0.088363,
        -0.088542,
        -0.086035,
        -0.081307,
        -0.074891,
        -0.067317,
        -0.05907,
        -0.050564,
        -0.042136
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.052801,
        0.078003,
        0.065129,
        0.051039,
        0.044615,
        0.045224,
        0.050176,
        0.057132,
        0.034031,
        0.010132,
        -0.006905,
        -0.017025,
        -0.022122,
        -0.024079,
        -0.024276,
        -0.023595,
        -0.022549,
        -0.021411,
        -0.02031,
        -0.019295
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.034215,
        0.08201,
        0.115324,
        0.132889,
        0.140994,
        0.145559,
        0.150245,
        0.156664,
        0.145308,
        0.117352,
        0.080295,
        0.041208,
        0.004833,
        -0.026327,
        -0.051372,
        -0.070383,
        -0.083958,
        -0.092908,
        -0.098083,
        -0.100282
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.228575,
        0.475273,
        0.624548,
        0.738953,
        0.855988,
        0.993216,
        1.155793,
        1.343269,
        1.420856,
        1.433771,
        1.408654,
        1.361239,
        1.300969,
        1.233671,
        1.163053,
        1.091551,
        1.020799,
        0.951894,
        0.885571,
        0.822302
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000751,
        -0.002523,
        -0.005357,
        -0.009459,
        -0.015267,
        -0.023153,
        -0.033276,
        -0.045658,
        -0.059762,
        -0.07474,
        -0.08958,
        -0.103416,
        -0.115623,
        -0.125811,
        -0.133788,
        -0.139512,
        -0.143052,
        -0.144547,
        -0.14419,
        -0.142198
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.203661,
        -0.488153,
        -0.686455,
        -0.791005,
        -0.839249,
        -0.86642,
        -0.894318,
        -0.932523,
        -0.864929,
        -0.698523,
        -0.477948,
        -0.245285,
        -0.180795,
        0.156706,
        0.305784,
        0.418948,
        0.49975,
        0.553022,
        0.583829,
        0.596915
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.015021,
        -0.039453,
        -0.076982,
        -0.130887,
        -0.203196,
        -0.289995,
        -0.384957,
        -0.48413,
        -0.494259,
        -0.502452,
        -0.499713,
        -0.484237,
        -0.457587,
        -0.422526,
        -0.38193,
        -0.338344,
        -0.293844,
        -0.250029,
        -0.208086,
        -0.168854
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.119737,
        0.133624,
        0.138042,
        0.133663,
        0.122203,
        0.105183,
        0.083697,
        0.058495,
        0.030114,
        0.001456,
        -0.024826,
        -0.047124,
        -0.06481,
        -0.077939,
        -0.086953,
        -0.092466,
        -0.095128,
        -0.095554,
        -0.094286,
        -0.091779
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.041179,
        0.034458,
        0.025436,
        0.014896,
        0.003668,
        -0.00775,
        -0.019166,
        -0.03058,
        -0.042078,
        -0.052776,
        -0.06185,
        -0.068855,
        -0.073697,
        -0.076524,
        -0.077604,
        -0.077254,
        -0.075783,
        -0.073472,
        -0.07056,
        -0.067244
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.011251,
        -0.012766,
        -0.015414,
        -0.018836,
        -0.022643,
        -0.026601,
        -0.030627,
        -0.034726,
        -0.038948,
        -0.04285,
        -0.046023,
        -0.048243,
        -0.049463,
        -0.049754,
        -0.049251,
        -0.048111,
        -0.046485,
        -0.044514,
        -0.042314,
        -0.039982
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -0.000311,
        -0.001714,
        -0.005288,
        -0.012149,
        -0.022751,
        -0.036773,
        -0.05357,
        -0.072453,
        -0.091939,
        -0.109983,
        -0.12491,
        -0.135697,
        -0.141951,
        -0.143763,
        -0.14155,
        -0.13592,
        -0.12756,
        -0.117168,
        -0.105404
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.005723,
        0.018951,
        0.036964,
        0.057241,
        0.078407,
        0.100014,
        0.122114,
        0.144948,
        0.16546,
        0.181048,
        0.190354,
        0.193094,
        0.189686,
        0.180923,
        0.167751,
        0.151135,
        0.131978,
        0.111091,
        0.089174
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.053695,
        -0.130216,
        -0.195697,
        -0.252721,
        -0.312915,
        -0.379116,
        -0.449488,
        -0.523472,
        -0.567184,
        -0.572196,
        -0.541452,
        -0.487274,
        -0.420594,
        -0.349391,
        -0.278887,
        -0.21223,
        -0.151163,
        -0.096501,
        -0.048507,
        -0.007094
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000268,
        -0.00092,
        -0.001898,
        -0.003162,
        -0.004726,
        -0.006622,
        -0.008869,
        -0.011487,
        -0.014323,
        -0.017184,
        -0.019891,
        -0.022327,
        -0.02443,
        -0.026177,
        -0.027571,
        -0.028633,
        -0.029388,
        -0.029871,
        -0.030114,
        -0.030149
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.037587,
        -0.091151,
        -0.136988,
        -0.176905,
        -0.21904,
        -0.265381,
        -0.314642,
        -0.36643,
        -0.397029,
        -0.400537,
        -0.379016,
        -0.341092,
        -0.294416,
        -0.244574,
        -0.195221,
        -0.148561,
        -0.105814,
        -0.067551,
        -0.033955,
        -0.004966
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000169,
        0.000383,
        0.001105,
        0.002592,
        0.004988,
        0.008053,
        0.011411,
        0.014858,
        0.01812,
        0.020705,
        0.022177,
        0.022559,
        0.022041,
        0.020848,
        0.019186,
        0.017223,
        0.015096,
        0.012908,
        0.01074,
        0.008653
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -2.7e-05,
        -0.000151,
        -0.000482,
        -0.001149,
        -0.002239,
        -0.003777,
        -0.005756,
        -0.008147,
        -0.010844,
        -0.013668,
        -0.016437,
        -0.019002,
        -0.021255,
        -0.023128,
        -0.024585,
        -0.02562,
        -0.026243,
        -0.026483,
        -0.026374
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.037799,
        0.078301,
        0.102085,
        0.119016,
        0.134919,
        0.152755,
        0.1738,
        0.198398,
        0.204485,
        0.200221,
        0.191013,
        0.180118,
        0.169241,
        0.159111,
        0.149917,
        0.141589,
        0.133957,
        0.126842,
        0.120095,
        0.113606
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.036961,
        0.054602,
        0.04559,
        0.035728,
        0.031231,
        0.031657,
        0.035123,
        0.039993,
        0.023821,
        0.007093,
        -0.004833,
        -0.011918,
        -0.015485,
        -0.016855,
        -0.016993,
        -0.016516,
        -0.015784,
        -0.014988,
        -0.014217,
        -0.013507
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000508,
        -0.001271,
        -0.00392,
        -0.009461,
        -0.018504,
        -0.030256,
        -0.043349,
        -0.056957,
        -0.070129,
        -0.081008,
        -0.087793,
        -0.090282,
        -0.089023,
        -0.084829,
        -0.078525,
        -0.070844,
        -0.062396,
        -0.053661,
        -0.045011,
        -0.036716
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000131,
        0.000434,
        0.001361,
        0.003536,
        0.007615,
        0.013918,
        0.022349,
        0.032615,
        0.044236,
        0.056348,
        0.067796,
        0.077599,
        0.085117,
        0.090047,
        0.09236,
        0.092223,
        0.089927,
        0.08583,
        0.080315,
        0.073755
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -4.4e-05,
        -0.000247,
        -0.000779,
        -0.001845,
        -0.00358,
        -0.006014,
        -0.009127,
        -0.012876,
        -0.017043,
        -0.021262,
        -0.025195,
        -0.028593,
        -0.031316,
        -0.033312,
        -0.034597,
        -0.035231,
        -0.035297,
        -0.034887,
        -0.034094
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        1e-06,
        3e-06,
        1e-05,
        2.3e-05,
        4.4e-05,
        7.5e-05,
        0.000113,
        0.00016,
        0.000211,
        0.000264,
        0.000312,
        0.000355,
        0.000388,
        0.000413,
        0.000429,
        0.000437,
        0.000438,
        0.000433,
        0.000423
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000587,
        -0.001469,
        -0.004533,
        -0.010941,
        -0.0214,
        -0.034992,
        -0.050139,
        -0.065881,
        -0.081121,
        -0.093711,
        -0.101566,
        -0.104452,
        -0.103001,
        -0.098152,
        -0.090861,
        -0.081975,
        -0.072201,
        -0.062096,
        -0.052088,
        -0.042491
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.068725,
        -0.142924,
        -0.188348,
        -0.223993,
        -0.261237,
        -0.305136,
        -0.356906,
        -0.416227,
        -0.442416,
        -0.4486,
        -0.442383,
        -0.428507,
        -0.409974,
        -0.388731,
        -0.366072,
        -0.342877,
        -0.319755,
        -0.297129,
        -0.275291,
        -0.25444
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.008554,
        0.020502,
        0.028831,
        0.033222,
        0.035248,
        0.03639,
        0.037561,
        0.039166,
        0.036327,
        0.029338,
        0.020074,
        0.010302,
        0.001208,
        -0.006582,
        -0.012843,
        -0.017596,
        -0.02099,
        -0.023227,
        -0.024521,
        -0.02507
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -5.6e-05,
        -0.000311,
        -0.000982,
        -0.002325,
        -0.00451,
        -0.007577,
        -0.011499,
        -0.016222,
        -0.021471,
        -0.026787,
        -0.031742,
        -0.036023,
        -0.039453,
        -0.041967,
        -0.043587,
        -0.044385,
        -0.044468,
        -0.043952,
        -0.042953
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.010938,
        15.044417,
        15.116659,
        15.236153,
        15.405954,
        15.607039,
        15.817952,
        16.031789,
        16.14995,
        16.247671,
        16.292111,
        16.28033,
        16.222364,
        16.132143,
        16.023045,
        15.906065,
        15.789377,
        15.678472,
        15.576696,
        15.485745
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.034215,
        0.08201,
        0.115324,
        0.132889,
        0.140994,
        0.145559,
        0.150245,
        0.156664,
        0.145308,
        0.117352,
        0.080295,
        0.041208,
        0.004833,
        -0.026327,
        -0.051372,
        -0.070383,
        -0.083958,
        -0.092908,
        -0.098083,
        -0.100282
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.005659,
        -0.005904,
        -0.006555,
        -0.007491,
        -0.008583,
        -0.009751,
        -0.010967,
        -0.012232,
        -0.013559,
        -0.0148,
        -0.015815,
        -0.016527,
        -0.016919,
        -0.01701,
        -0.016844,
        -0.016469,
        -0.015933,
        -0.015282,
        -0.014551,
        -0.013772
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.008554,
        -0.020502,
        -0.028831,
        -0.033222,
        -0.035248,
        -0.03639,
        -0.037561,
        -0.039166,
        -0.036327,
        -0.029338,
        -0.020074,
        -0.010302,
        -0.001208,
        0.006582,
        0.012843,
        0.017596,
        0.02099,
        0.023227,
        0.024521,
        0.02507
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.227501,
        -0.253886,
        -0.26228,
        -0.25396,
        -0.232186,
        -0.199848,
        -0.159025,
        -0.111141,
        -0.057217,
        -0.002766,
        0.04717,
        0.089535,
        0.123139,
        0.148085,
        0.165212,
        0.175685,
        0.180743,
        0.181552,
        0.179143,
        0.17438
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.185306,
        -0.155062,
        -0.114461,
        -0.067033,
        -0.016505,
        0.034877,
        0.086249,
        0.137611,
        0.189352,
        0.237492,
        0.278326,
        0.309846,
        0.331638,
        0.344357,
        0.34922,
        0.347644,
        0.341025,
        0.330625,
        0.317522,
        0.302599
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.092255,
        0.104678,
        0.126391,
        0.154455,
        0.185671,
        0.218131,
        0.25114,
        0.284757,
        0.319371,
        0.35137,
        0.377388,
        0.39559,
        0.405593,
        0.407984,
        0.403862,
        0.394507,
        0.381178,
        0.365012,
        0.346974,
        0.327849
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.101867,
        0.106277,
        0.117985,
        0.134838,
        0.154486,
        0.17552,
        0.19741,
        0.220174,
        0.244062,
        0.266396,
        0.284668,
        0.297492,
        0.304538,
        0.306186,
        0.303189,
        0.296436,
        0.286803,
        0.275077,
        0.261926,
        0.247895
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.17431,
        -0.391772,
        -0.541306,
        -0.668772,
        -0.809647,
        -0.980506,
        -1.186165,
        -1.426158,
        -1.559579,
        -1.618235,
        -1.629383,
        -1.609777,
        -1.570051,
        -1.517218,
        -1.456073,
        -1.389991,
        -1.321408,
        -1.252069,
        -1.183242,
        -1.115839
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.234935,
        0.499202,
        0.680927,
        0.845386,
        1.032015,
        1.259576,
        1.533883,
        1.85482,
        2.03046,
        2.113268,
        2.135691,
        2.118247,
        2.074268,
        2.012693,
        1.939708,
        1.859702,
        1.775864,
        1.690484,
        1.605244,
        1.521362
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.997803,
        79.989247,
        79.970281,
        79.937896,
        79.893473,
        79.841372,
        79.785224,
        79.727152,
        79.673765,
        79.633669,
        79.61139,
        79.607213,
        79.618662,
        79.642,
        79.673289,
        79.708984,
        79.746216,
        79.782836,
        79.817352
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.999122,
        99.995574,
        99.987392,
        99.972963,
        99.952678,
        99.928524,
        99.902409,
        99.875656,
        99.851587,
        99.834254,
        99.825646,
        99.825688,
        99.833018,
        99.845735,
        99.861905,
        99.879829,
        99.898163,
        99.915917,
        99.932416
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.998781,
        99.993828,
        99.982387,
        99.962173,
        99.933405,
        99.898352,
        99.859332,
        99.818052,
        99.778768,
        99.747013,
        99.726195,
        99.717267,
        99.719392,
        99.730712,
        99.748968,
        99.771894,
        99.797454,
        99.823942,
        99.850017
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.999834,
        3.999191,
        3.997767,
        3.99534,
        3.992013,
        3.988113,
        3.983907,
        3.97955,
        3.975534,
        3.972501,
        3.970794,
        3.970436,
        3.971244,
        3.972941,
        3.975235,
        3.977861,
        3.980607,
        3.983313,
        3.985869
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.99929,
        99.996433,
        99.989863,
        99.978292,
        99.962058,
        99.942781,
        99.921982,
        99.9007,
        99.881609,
        99.867971,
        99.861348,
        99.861623,
        99.867647,
        99.877862,
        99.890707,
        99.904833,
        99.919192,
        99.933026,
        99.945832
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.999344,
        99.996733,
        99.990831,
        99.98063,
        99.966504,
        99.949867,
        99.932028,
        99.913879,
        99.897637,
        99.886046,
        99.880511,
        99.881059,
        99.886815,
        99.896483,
        99.908694,
        99.922196,
        99.935964,
        99.949215,
        99.961392
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        1997.968843,
        1996.064937,
        1995.578599,
        1996.804017,
        1999.948154,
        2004.065113,
        2008.089333,
        2011.728047,
        2024.230459,
        2034.612549,
        2041.287082,
        2044.242372,
        2044.138756,
        2041.824881,
        2038.102258,
        2033.629617,
        2028.901942,
        2024.260323,
        2019.922318,
        2016.010146
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.1507,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.4644,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.5025,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 10
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}