{
  "record_id": "irf_v64_us_hike_200_uk",
  "model": {
    "name": "global_macro",
    "engine": "global_macro_v64",
    "contract": "v6.4"
  },
  "question": "US policy rate +200bp",
  "shock": {
    "id": "us_hike_200",
    "spec": {
      "monetary": {
        "US": 200.0
      }
    },
    "units": {
      "monetary": "bp_deviation"
    },
    "held_fixed": {
      "oil": 80.0,
      "metals": 0.0,
      "risk_premium": 0.0,
      "vix": 15.0,
      "housing": {},
      "fiscal": {},
      "tfp": {},
      "bank_equity": {},
      "equity": {},
      "sovereign_spread": {},
      "bilateral_tariffs": []
    }
  },
  "country": {
    "iso2": "UK",
    "name": "United Kingdom"
  },
  "horizon": {
    "freq": "Q",
    "n": 20
  },
  "series": {
    "Y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000782,
        -0.001139,
        -0.00257,
        -0.006304,
        -0.013438,
        -0.023591,
        -0.035263,
        -0.047196,
        -0.057771,
        -0.064961,
        -0.067226,
        -0.065066,
        -0.059811,
        -0.052872,
        -0.045389,
        -0.038136,
        -0.031578,
        -0.025887,
        -0.0211,
        -0.017158
      ]
    },
    "C": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00036,
        -0.000678,
        -0.001396,
        -0.003201,
        -0.006818,
        -0.012251,
        -0.018799,
        -0.02572,
        -0.032182,
        -0.037011,
        -0.039189,
        -0.038716,
        -0.036193,
        -0.032404,
        -0.028062,
        -0.023695,
        -0.01965,
        -0.016088,
        -0.013065,
        -0.010567
      ]
    },
    "pi_cpi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.009833,
        0.016615,
        0.01732,
        0.015393,
        0.012707,
        0.010176,
        0.008221,
        0.006969,
        0.002336,
        -0.002951,
        -0.00739,
        -0.010424,
        -0.012044,
        -0.012495,
        -0.012095,
        -0.011149,
        -0.009909,
        -0.008561,
        -0.007233,
        -0.006007
      ]
    },
    "i": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001054,
        0.002927,
        0.004929,
        0.006676,
        0.00801,
        0.008914,
        0.009445,
        0.009697,
        0.009336,
        0.008293,
        0.006704,
        0.004785,
        0.002749,
        0.000772,
        -0.00103,
        -0.002588,
        -0.003875,
        -0.004891,
        -0.005658,
        -0.006207
      ]
    },
    "RER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.107113,
        0.221879,
        0.301537,
        0.359219,
        0.404386,
        0.443972,
        0.482983,
        0.524829,
        0.527575,
        0.505399,
        0.468681,
        0.424757,
        0.378616,
        0.33349,
        0.291333,
        0.253185,
        0.219458,
        0.190152,
        0.165005,
        0.143613
      ]
    },
    "P_H": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000105,
        -0.000279,
        -0.000636,
        -0.001413,
        -0.00295,
        -0.005529,
        -0.009254,
        -0.014092,
        -0.019828,
        -0.026034,
        -0.032142,
        -0.037671,
        -0.042311,
        -0.045928,
        -0.048516,
        -0.05016,
        -0.050986,
        -0.051136,
        -0.050747,
        -0.049941
      ]
    },
    "Q_B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.037384,
        -0.099008,
        -0.174983,
        -0.262173,
        -0.358783,
        -0.463423,
        -0.574904,
        -0.692178,
        -0.555238,
        -0.441638,
        -0.347892,
        -0.271297,
        -0.209473,
        -0.160216,
        -0.12149,
        -0.091442,
        -0.068429,
        -0.051029,
        0.039608,
        0.043448
      ]
    },
    "equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.014773,
        -0.036788,
        -0.066391,
        -0.10557,
        -0.156439,
        -0.21758,
        -0.28484,
        -0.354727,
        -0.334055,
        -0.312934,
        -0.286345,
        -0.254621,
        -0.220272,
        -0.186065,
        -0.154141,
        -0.125791,
        -0.101601,
        -0.081511,
        -0.065188,
        -0.052139
      ]
    },
    "y2": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.006457,
        0.007492,
        0.008163,
        0.008384,
        0.008148,
        0.00749,
        0.006473,
        0.005163,
        0.003628,
        0.001976,
        0.000328,
        -0.001217,
        -0.002591,
        -0.003756,
        -0.004701,
        -0.005434,
        -0.005974,
        -0.006347,
        -0.006582,
        -0.006707
      ]
    },
    "y5": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.003002,
        0.002621,
        0.002135,
        0.001544,
        0.000865,
        0.000121,
        -0.000663,
        -0.001468,
        -0.00228,
        -0.003066,
        -0.003794,
        -0.004435,
        -0.004974,
        -0.005405,
        -0.005731,
        -0.005961,
        -0.006108,
        -0.006184,
        -0.006204,
        -0.00618
      ]
    },
    "y10": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.00156,
        -0.00171,
        -0.001904,
        -0.002144,
        -0.002426,
        -0.002737,
        -0.003068,
        -0.003409,
        -0.003753,
        -0.004085,
        -0.004388,
        -0.004648,
        -0.004856,
        -0.005011,
        -0.005114,
        -0.005169,
        -0.005182,
        -0.00516,
        -0.00511,
        -0.005038
      ]
    },
    "N": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -4.6e-05,
        -0.000374,
        -0.001512,
        -0.004182,
        -0.008828,
        -0.015364,
        -0.023369,
        -0.032293,
        -0.041087,
        -0.048471,
        -0.053578,
        -0.056105,
        -0.056203,
        -0.0543,
        -0.050936,
        -0.046651,
        -0.0419,
        -0.03704,
        -0.032327
      ]
    },
    "w": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.001096,
        0.003859,
        0.00807,
        0.013224,
        0.018784,
        0.024294,
        0.029431,
        0.033995,
        0.037461,
        0.039343,
        0.039367,
        0.037495,
        0.033882,
        0.02881,
        0.022627,
        0.015691,
        0.00834,
        0.00087,
        -0.006479
      ]
    },
    "I": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.003772,
        -0.007929,
        -0.01598,
        -0.031291,
        -0.056553,
        -0.089211,
        -0.124039,
        -0.157916,
        -0.185445,
        -0.200469,
        -0.199394,
        -0.185989,
        -0.165131,
        -0.141099,
        -0.116981,
        -0.094671,
        -0.075185,
        -0.058712,
        -0.045171,
        -0.03426
      ]
    },
    "K": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -1.9e-05,
        -5.9e-05,
        -0.000138,
        -0.000295,
        -0.000578,
        -0.001024,
        -0.001644,
        -0.002433,
        -0.003361,
        -0.004363,
        -0.00536,
        -0.00629,
        -0.007116,
        -0.007821,
        -0.008406,
        -0.008879,
        -0.009255,
        -0.009549,
        -0.009775,
        -0.009946
      ]
    },
    "Q": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00264,
        -0.00555,
        -0.011186,
        -0.021904,
        -0.039587,
        -0.062448,
        -0.086827,
        -0.110541,
        -0.129811,
        -0.140328,
        -0.139576,
        -0.130192,
        -0.115592,
        -0.09877,
        -0.081887,
        -0.06627,
        -0.052629,
        -0.041098,
        -0.03162,
        -0.023982
      ]
    },
    "G": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.000161,
        0.000234,
        0.000528,
        0.001294,
        0.002758,
        0.004842,
        0.007238,
        0.009686,
        0.011854,
        0.013325,
        0.013783,
        0.013332,
        0.012247,
        0.010819,
        0.00928,
        0.007791,
        0.006447,
        0.005281,
        0.004302,
        0.003497
      ]
    },
    "B": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -4e-06,
        -3.3e-05,
        -0.000131,
        -0.000362,
        -0.000762,
        -0.001321,
        -0.002002,
        -0.002756,
        -0.003491,
        -0.004099,
        -0.004507,
        -0.004692,
        -0.00467,
        -0.004481,
        -0.004174,
        -0.003794,
        -0.003382,
        -0.002966,
        -0.002568
      ]
    },
    "NX": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.009682,
        0.020083,
        0.027536,
        0.033393,
        0.038646,
        0.04387,
        0.049331,
        0.055174,
        0.057479,
        0.057244,
        0.055105,
        0.05163,
        0.047331,
        0.042631,
        0.03786,
        0.03325,
        0.028953,
        0.025052,
        0.021581,
        0.018542
      ]
    },
    "pi": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.006883,
        0.011631,
        0.012124,
        0.010775,
        0.008895,
        0.007123,
        0.005755,
        0.004878,
        0.001635,
        -0.002066,
        -0.005173,
        -0.007297,
        -0.008431,
        -0.008746,
        -0.008466,
        -0.007804,
        -0.006936,
        -0.005993,
        -0.005063,
        -0.004205
      ]
    },
    "mc": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000469,
        -0.000682,
        -0.001535,
        -0.003764,
        -0.008023,
        -0.014086,
        -0.021055,
        -0.028178,
        -0.034485,
        -0.038764,
        -0.040096,
        -0.038785,
        -0.035629,
        -0.031472,
        -0.026997,
        -0.022666,
        -0.018754,
        -0.015364,
        -0.012515,
        -0.010173
      ]
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000121,
        0.000274,
        0.000617,
        0.001471,
        0.00326,
        0.006264,
        0.010477,
        0.015697,
        0.021512,
        0.027279,
        0.032243,
        0.03588,
        0.037975,
        0.038575,
        0.037895,
        0.036227,
        0.033876,
        0.031114,
        0.028161,
        0.025188
      ]
    },
    "credit_supply": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -1.7e-05,
        -0.000115,
        -0.00043,
        -0.001151,
        -0.002436,
        -0.004357,
        -0.006916,
        -0.010069,
        -0.013592,
        -0.017118,
        -0.02032,
        -0.022981,
        -0.024996,
        -0.026349,
        -0.027085,
        -0.027285,
        -0.027042,
        -0.026448,
        -0.025592
      ]
    },
    "lending_spread": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        0.0,
        1e-06,
        6e-06,
        1.5e-05,
        3.2e-05,
        5.7e-05,
        9e-05,
        0.000131,
        0.000177,
        0.000223,
        0.000265,
        0.0003,
        0.000326,
        0.000344,
        0.000354,
        0.000356,
        0.000353,
        0.000345,
        0.000334
      ]
    },
    "gdp_services": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.00062,
        -0.000902,
        -0.002035,
        -0.004993,
        -0.010643,
        -0.018684,
        -0.027928,
        -0.037379,
        -0.045755,
        -0.051449,
        -0.053243,
        -0.051533,
        -0.047371,
        -0.041875,
        -0.035948,
        -0.030204,
        -0.025009,
        -0.020503,
        -0.016711,
        -0.013589
      ]
    },
    "gdp_manufacturing": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.032267,
        -0.06672,
        -0.090715,
        -0.108332,
        -0.122545,
        -0.135391,
        -0.148193,
        -0.161821,
        -0.163455,
        -0.157117,
        -0.145805,
        -0.131882,
        -0.117075,
        -0.102553,
        -0.08903,
        -0.076884,
        -0.066258,
        -0.057132,
        -0.049397,
        -0.042896
      ]
    },
    "r": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.000264,
        0.000732,
        0.001232,
        0.001669,
        0.002003,
        0.002228,
        0.002361,
        0.002424,
        0.002334,
        0.002073,
        0.001676,
        0.001196,
        0.000687,
        0.000193,
        -0.000258,
        -0.000647,
        -0.000969,
        -0.001223,
        -0.001415,
        -0.001552
      ]
    },
    "bank_equity": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.0,
        -2.1e-05,
        -0.000144,
        -0.000541,
        -0.001447,
        -0.003062,
        -0.005478,
        -0.008695,
        -0.01266,
        -0.017089,
        -0.021521,
        -0.025548,
        -0.028894,
        -0.031426,
        -0.033127,
        -0.034053,
        -0.034304,
        -0.033998,
        -0.033252,
        -0.032175
      ]
    },
    "vix": {
      "unit": "index_level",
      "path": [
        15.010938,
        15.044417,
        15.116659,
        15.236153,
        15.405954,
        15.607039,
        15.817952,
        16.031789,
        16.14995,
        16.247671,
        16.292111,
        16.28033,
        16.222364,
        16.132143,
        16.023045,
        15.906065,
        15.789377,
        15.678472,
        15.576696,
        15.485745
      ]
    },
    "y3m": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        0.001054,
        0.002927,
        0.004929,
        0.006676,
        0.00801,
        0.008914,
        0.009445,
        0.009697,
        0.009336,
        0.008293,
        0.006704,
        0.004785,
        0.002749,
        0.000772,
        -0.00103,
        -0.002588,
        -0.003875,
        -0.004891,
        -0.005658,
        -0.006207
      ]
    },
    "y30": {
      "unit": "pp_dev",
      "path": [
        -0.001662,
        -0.001672,
        -0.001698,
        -0.001741,
        -0.001798,
        -0.001865,
        -0.001941,
        -0.002021,
        -0.002103,
        -0.002181,
        -0.002251,
        -0.002308,
        -0.002349,
        -0.002373,
        -0.00238,
        -0.002372,
        -0.002351,
        -0.00232,
        -0.002279,
        -0.002233
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_3m": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.000264,
        -0.000732,
        -0.001232,
        -0.001669,
        -0.002003,
        -0.002228,
        -0.002361,
        -0.002424,
        -0.002334,
        -0.002073,
        -0.001676,
        -0.001196,
        -0.000687,
        -0.000193,
        0.000258,
        0.000647,
        0.000969,
        0.001223,
        0.001415,
        0.001552
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_2y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.012267,
        -0.014234,
        -0.015509,
        -0.01593,
        -0.015481,
        -0.014232,
        -0.012298,
        -0.00981,
        -0.006892,
        -0.003755,
        -0.000624,
        0.002312,
        0.004923,
        0.007137,
        0.008932,
        0.010324,
        0.01135,
        0.012059,
        0.012506,
        0.012744
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_5y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.01351,
        -0.011794,
        -0.009608,
        -0.006948,
        -0.003892,
        -0.000546,
        0.002984,
        0.006607,
        0.010258,
        0.013797,
        0.017072,
        0.019958,
        0.022384,
        0.024323,
        0.02579,
        0.026826,
        0.027485,
        0.027829,
        0.027918,
        0.027809
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_10y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.012793,
        0.014022,
        0.015611,
        0.017584,
        0.019891,
        0.022445,
        0.025158,
        0.027954,
        0.030776,
        0.033497,
        0.035979,
        0.03811,
        0.039822,
        0.041093,
        0.041934,
        0.042383,
        0.042489,
        0.04231,
        0.041901,
        0.041315
      ]
    },
    "Q_B_30y": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.029917,
        0.030103,
        0.030567,
        0.031331,
        0.032355,
        0.033579,
        0.034936,
        0.036373,
        0.037846,
        0.039264,
        0.040525,
        0.041547,
        0.042281,
        0.042708,
        0.042838,
        0.042697,
        0.042322,
        0.041752,
        0.04103,
        0.040192
      ]
    },
    "NEER": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        -0.034347,
        -0.095902,
        -0.147048,
        -0.181833,
        -0.207161,
        -0.228162,
        -0.248722,
        -0.271572,
        -0.27709,
        -0.261275,
        -0.233009,
        -0.198549,
        -0.162163,
        -0.126634,
        -0.093649,
        -0.064105,
        -0.038345,
        -0.016352,
        0.002126,
        0.017466
      ]
    },
    "USD": {
      "unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
      "path": [
        0.113473,
        0.245808,
        0.357915,
        0.465652,
        0.580413,
        0.710332,
        0.861073,
        1.036381,
        1.137178,
        1.184895,
        1.195718,
        1.181766,
        1.151914,
        1.112513,
        1.067988,
        1.021335,
        0.974524,
        0.928742,
        0.884678,
        0.842673
      ]
    },
    "P_energy": {
      "unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
      "path": [
        80.0,
        79.997803,
        79.989247,
        79.970281,
        79.937896,
        79.893473,
        79.841372,
        79.785224,
        79.727152,
        79.673765,
        79.633669,
        79.61139,
        79.607213,
        79.618662,
        79.642,
        79.673289,
        79.708984,
        79.746216,
        79.782836,
        79.817352
      ]
    },
    "P_metals": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.999122,
        99.995574,
        99.987392,
        99.972963,
        99.952678,
        99.928524,
        99.902409,
        99.875656,
        99.851587,
        99.834254,
        99.825646,
        99.825688,
        99.833018,
        99.845735,
        99.861905,
        99.879829,
        99.898163,
        99.915917,
        99.932416
      ]
    },
    "P_food": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.998781,
        99.993828,
        99.982387,
        99.962173,
        99.933405,
        99.898352,
        99.859332,
        99.818052,
        99.778768,
        99.747013,
        99.726195,
        99.717267,
        99.719392,
        99.730712,
        99.748968,
        99.771894,
        99.797454,
        99.823942,
        99.850017
      ]
    },
    "P_gas": {
      "unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
      "path": [
        4.0,
        3.999834,
        3.999191,
        3.997767,
        3.99534,
        3.992013,
        3.988113,
        3.983907,
        3.97955,
        3.975534,
        3.972501,
        3.970794,
        3.970436,
        3.971244,
        3.972941,
        3.975235,
        3.977861,
        3.980607,
        3.983313,
        3.985869
      ]
    },
    "P_copper": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.99929,
        99.996433,
        99.989863,
        99.978292,
        99.962058,
        99.942781,
        99.921982,
        99.9007,
        99.881609,
        99.867971,
        99.861348,
        99.861623,
        99.867647,
        99.877862,
        99.890707,
        99.904833,
        99.919192,
        99.933026,
        99.945832
      ]
    },
    "P_wheat": {
      "unit": "index (level)",
      "path": [
        100.0,
        99.999344,
        99.996733,
        99.990831,
        99.98063,
        99.966504,
        99.949867,
        99.932028,
        99.913879,
        99.897637,
        99.886046,
        99.880511,
        99.881059,
        99.886815,
        99.896483,
        99.908694,
        99.922196,
        99.935964,
        99.949215,
        99.961392
      ]
    },
    "P_gold": {
      "unit": "USD/oz (level)",
      "path": [
        1997.968843,
        1996.064937,
        1995.578599,
        1996.804017,
        1999.948154,
        2004.065113,
        2008.089333,
        2011.728047,
        2024.230459,
        2034.612549,
        2041.287082,
        2044.242372,
        2044.138756,
        2041.824881,
        2038.102258,
        2033.629617,
        2028.901942,
        2024.260323,
        2019.922318,
        2016.010146
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "GDP_peak_pct": -0.0672,
    "GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
    "CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0788,
    "CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
    "equity_peak_pct": -0.3547,
    "equity_peak_quarter": 8
  },
  "qa_checks": {
    "json_matches_peaks": true,
    "complete_q1_q20": true,
    "no_nan": true,
    "rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
    "ok": true,
    "reasons": []
  }
}