Bubble Stocks Weekly

Each weeknight our models review stocks for mathematical patterns indicative of a bubble. Those just about to enter a bubble, those riding a bubble, and those crashing out of a bubble. We don't read news. The scores come from mathematical methods based on known academic literature, and the model typically only calls out 1% of stocks at most. Identifying stocks that are hot — these are leads, not recommendations.

The model looks for a price that has been rising faster and faster, with a tightening wobble on the way up. Clear 70 and you are in the Bubble Zone. We run the same test on the S&P 500, the FTSE 100 and 250, the Nikkei 225, the ASX 200, Ibovespa, the DAX, CAC 40, AEX, IBEX 35 and the Euro Stoxx 50 after the US cash close, at 6pm Eastern. Identifying stocks that are hot — these are leads, not recommendations.

Gold is the close. The model line changes along the path: yellow at 50+, green at 60+, blue at 70+. After it has printed 70, if the peak has ended a drop is red, then orange below 60. Dashed is a short look-ahead from the last close. Prices stay in the local currency.

United States

The S&P 500.

In the Bubble Zone

Already in a bubble. Hot names — leads, not recommendations.

VLO · Valero Energy United States

Valero Energy is in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500. Up 13% since it first printed 70 over 33 sessions. The climb from 60 to 70 paid 3.8%. The model projection is for a further 5.7% gain from the current price of 388 to 410 in the next 8 days.

70 on 13 Aug · +3.8% from 60 to 70 · +13% since 70 · 34 sessions in the zone · -6.2% off the high since 70 · score 84 (was 83) · 5-day +3.1% · 20-day +7.1% · model +5.7% to 410 in the next 8 days

MPC · Marathon Petroleum United States

Marathon Petroleum is in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500. Up 14% since it first printed 70 over 34 sessions. The climb from 60 to 70 paid 16%. The model projection is for a further 35% gain from the current price of 395 to 534 in the next 15 days.

70 on 12 Aug · +16% from 60 to 70 · +14% since 70 · 35 sessions in the zone · -6.9% off the high since 70 · score 80 (was 76) · 5-day +1.8% · 20-day +3.2% · model +35% to 534 in the next 15 days

PBF · PBF United States

PBF is in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500. Up 6.2% since it first printed 70 over 7 sessions. The model projection is for a further 32% gain from the current price of 77.0 to 101 in the next 15 days.

70 on 21 Sep · -3.0% from 60 to 70 · +6.2% since 70 · 8 sessions in the zone · score 78 (was 77) · 5-day +9.2% · 20-day +2.6% · model +32% to 101 in the next 15 days

Closing in

Close to moving into a bubble. Not in the zone until they clear 70.

Nothing is close enough to the zone tonight.

Rolling over

Had a bubble-like run and have dropped out of the zone. A leftover path that still rises is not a second call.

FISI · FISI United States

FISI was in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500 and has now dropped out. Off 4.8% since it printed 70. The run is rolling over.

70 on 27 Jul · +1.6% from 60 to 70 · -4.8% since 70 · dropped 46 sessions after 70 · -8.0% off the high since 70 · score 0 (was 0) · 5-day -1.7% · 20-day -1.9% · model +0.0% to 39.0 in the next day

OII · OII United States

OII was in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500 and has now dropped out. Off 5.6% since it printed 70. The model projection is for a further 11% gain from the current price of 43.6 to 48.4 in the next 15 days — a resurgence on the leftover path, not a live call.

70 on 23 Sep · -9.5% from 60 to 70 · -5.6% since 70 · dropped 5 sessions after 70 · -6.5% off the high since 70 · score 0 (was 70) · 5-day -5.6% · 20-day -15% · model +11% to 48.4 in the next 15 days

ACT · ACT United States

ACT was in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500 and has now dropped out. Off 9.4% since it printed 70. The model projection is for a further 22% decline from the current price of 43.3 to 33.6 in the next 15 days — leftover path, not a live call.

70 on 23 Sep · -4.0% from 60 to 70 · -9.4% since 70 · dropped 5 sessions after 70 · -9.4% off the high since 70 · score 12 (was 81) · 5-day -9.4% · 20-day -11% · model -22% to 33.6 in the next 15 days

IOVA · IOVA United States

IOVA was in the Bubble Zone on the S&P 500 and has now dropped out. Still 79% above the day it printed 70. The model projection is for a further 31% gain from the current price of 14.8 to 19.5 in the next 15 days — a resurgence on the leftover path, not a live call.

70 on 21 Aug · +79% since 70 · dropped 27 sessions after 70 · score 12 (was 12) · 5-day +45% · 20-day +79% · model +31% to 19.5 in the next 15 days

International

The FTSE 100 and 250, the Nikkei 225, the ASX 200, Ibovespa, the DAX, CAC 40, AEX, IBEX 35 and the Euro Stoxx 50. Local prices, not dollars.

In the Bubble Zone

Already in a bubble on their home index.

001450.KS · 001450.KS KR

001450.KS is in the Bubble Zone on their home index. Off 2.2% since it printed 70, and still in the zone. The model projection is for a further 24% gain from the current price of 47,850 to 59,333 in the next 15 days.

70 on 27 Aug · -3.6% from 60 to 70 · -2.2% since 70 · 23 sessions in the zone · -11% off the high since 70 · score 83 (was 77) · 5-day -2.5% · 20-day -6.0% · model +24% to 59,333 in the next 15 days

2882.TW · 2882.TW TW

2882.TW is in the Bubble Zone on their home index. Off 0.4% since it printed 70, and still in the zone. The model projection is for a further 26% gain from the current price of 111 to 140 in the next 15 days.

70 on 23 Sep · -0.4% since 70 · 4 sessions in the zone · score 79 (was 66) · 5-day -1.8% · 20-day +0.5% · model +26% to 140 in the next 15 days

3008.TW · 3008.TW TW

3008.TW is in the Bubble Zone on their home index. Off 22% since it printed 70, and still in the zone. The climb from 60 to 70 paid 8.3%. The model projection is for a further 53% gain from the current price of 5,945 to 9,085 in the next 7 days.

70 on 31 Aug · +8.3% from 60 to 70 · -22% since 70 · dropped 20 sessions after 70 · -24% off the high since 70 · score 12 (was 12) · 5-day -7.1% · 20-day -22% · model +53% to 9,085 in the next 7 days

Closing in

Close to the zone. The closest names outside the US.

ABN.AS · ABN AMRO Netherlands

ABN AMRO is closing in on the Bubble Zone on the AEX. The model sees part of the shape, not enough to call a bubble. The model projection is for a further 2.4% gain from the current price of 43.8 to 44.8 in the next 6 days.

70 on 10 Sep · +2.7% since 70 · 14 sessions in the zone · score 76 (was 74) · 5-day +1.0% · 20-day +5.0% · model +2.4% to 44.8 in the next 6 days

Rolling over

Were in the Bubble Zone and have dropped out.

NDA-SE.ST · NDA-SE.ST SE

NDA-SE.ST was in the Bubble Zone on their home index and has now dropped out. The leftover path is the old fit, not a live bubble call.

70 on 18 Sep · +0.4% since 70 · 8 sessions in the zone · -1.7% off the high since 70 · score 75 (was 74) · 5-day -1.0% · 20-day +1.7% · model +0.4% to 200 in the next 2 days

9107.T · 9107.T Japan

9107.T was in the Bubble Zone on the Nikkei 225 and has now dropped out. Off 2.1% since it printed 70. The model projection is for a further 39% gain from the current price of 3,326 to 4,630 in the next 15 days — a resurgence on the leftover path, not a live call.

70 on 16 Sep · +2.2% from 60 to 70 · -2.1% since 70 · dropped 7 sessions after 70 · -4.7% off the high since 70 · score 0 (was 0) · 5-day -3.2% · 20-day +0.1% · model +39% to 4,630 in the next 15 days

UGPA3.SA · Ultrapar Brazil

Ultrapar was in the Bubble Zone on Ibovespa and has now dropped out. Off 5.3% since it printed 70. The model projection is for a further 12% gain from the current price of 37.7 to 42.3 in the next 15 days — a resurgence on the leftover path, not a live call.

70 on 23 Sep · -5.3% since 70 · dropped 5 sessions after 70 · -5.3% off the high since 70 · score 0 (was 74) · 5-day -5.3% · 20-day +6.7% · model +12% to 42.3 in the next 15 days

How to read this

In the Bubble Zone means the stock cleared 70. Closing in is the watchlist: almost there, still not a bubble. Rolling over means it had a bubble-like run and has now dropped out. The facts under each name — the move from 60 to 70, the move since 70, the 5-day and the look-ahead — are from the close, in the local currency.

We rescan these indices every weeknight at 6pm Eastern, after the US cash close. London, Tokyo and Sydney have already settled by then. Identifying stocks that are hot — these are leads, not recommendations. Type any local ticker in the Bubble Zone Calculator — AZN.L, 7203.T, BHP.AX, PETR4.SA, SAP.DE.