Sveriges Riksbank — Policy Preview

Decision due: Thursday, 20 August 2026, 09:30 CEST · Current policy rate: 1.75%

1. Executive summary

The US–Iran 60-day MoU on Hormuz expired around 16–17 August, putting Brent back above USD 90 in post-expiry trading — a setback risk Hjelm pre-flagged in the June minutes (“With the Memorandum of Understanding due to be signed on Friday, this risk has reasonably been reduced for the time being. However, the parties have several difficult issues to resolve over the next 60 days, and there is a relatively high risk of setbacks and a resumption of the conflict.”). The Board explicitly priced this branch. The release for the 20 August decision is a Monetary Policy Update without a new rate path, so the 24 September Monetary Policy Report carries any path revision. That sequencing is the argument for the hold. The Executive Board is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75%. The key risk is that renewed supply-chain disruptions from the Middle East or faster krona depreciation could push the inflation trajectory higher than the Board currently assumes, prompting an earlier upward revision to the rate path at the full forecast round in September. The traffic is a composition shift, not a closure: roughly 138 vessels per day pre-war; 808 open plus 968 US-facilitated transits since the 17 June MoU (averaging on the order of 30 a day over the window), with flows shifted to the northern corridor and unlit US-escorted southern transits after the IRGC began striking shipping on 7 July. The diplomatic state is two-sided (Iran: the MoU is "in a coma", not dead; an Iran–Oman navigation route agreed in early August; Trump "low-keying it") — a live but stalled negotiating track, not one-way escalation.

2. The call

Surveyed economist consensus is for a hold, in line with the unanimous decision in June that left the rate at 1.75% and revised the policy-rate path slightly higher to reflect greater upside risks to inflation from geopolitical supply shocks. The June minutes recorded all five members supporting the hold, with Thedéen noting a small shift in a tighter direction while Jansson remained sceptical of insurance hikes and Hjelm saw the March path as still reasonable. The call is for a hold on 20 August; a surprise cut would require a materially softer tone on inflation risks than the June minutes, while any hawkish surprise would come from stronger language on the probability of a rise by end-2026. The September meeting remains the more natural point for any adjustment to the path.

3. The committee

Lean labels summarise RoboMacro's read of each member's public communications over the past six months, from Hawkish to Dovish. A lean is only assigned where recent remarks carry a monetary-policy stance: 5 of 5 members currently qualify (Thedéen, Bunge, Hjelm, Jansson, Seim). Where the bank's attributed minutes record a stance more recently than the speech record, the minutes take precedence — marked "(minutes)" (Jansson).

The committee remains tightly clustered around the hold decided in June, with no reservations entered and all five members explicitly backing the unchanged rate and the modest upward shift in the rate path. Thedéen and Seim continue to emphasise vigilance on inflation risks from protracted Middle East conflict and supply-chain fragility, while Bunge and Hjelm have stressed the case for seeing through supply-driven price pressures to protect activity. Jansson has been the most explicit dove. The early-2026 turnover that brought in Hjelm (for whom this is only his fourth meeting) has so far produced little visible differentiation in voting, but the June minutes already hinted at a spectrum: Thedéen framing the decision as a small tightening bias, Hjelm most reluctant on the path revision while supporting it, and Jansson most relaxed on the inflation outlook. The 20 August Monetary Policy Update will test whether that hawkish tilt has survived the latest soft inflation print.

4. Data since the last decision

No new release since the last decision for: Output gap (RoboMacro model estimate) — the committee sees the same print(s) it saw last time. Market rows are measured from the 17 Jun close — the last observation common to every market series on or before the last decision. Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) inter-meeting high 105.32 on 23 Jul (+31.1% from the decision close). The data flow since the June decision has been mixed but predominantly soft on prices while firmer on activity and confidence. CPIF inflation, the Bank’s primary gauge, dropped 0.6pp to 0.7% (flagged in the 6 August flash estimate and confirmed in the 13 August release), in line with consensus. The July headline fall was energy- and fiscal-driven while CPIF excluding energy rose from 0.4% in June to 0.6% in July. Core firmed as the headline fell — this strengthens the hold case. On the activity side, Q2 real GDP growth surprised to the upside at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, household consumption accelerated, and confidence indicators (economic tendency, business and consumer) all improved. Offsetting this, the seasonally adjusted and smoothed unemployment rate stood at 8.7%, unchanged every month since February (8.8% through most of 2025). The rise in the unadjusted rate to 9.9% follows the routine June seasonal pattern. The GDP indicator for June surprised soft, manufacturing and services PMIs eased, and industrial production fell sharply. The output gap (RoboMacro model estimate) the Board already had in June now stands at +1.01pp for Q2; this diverges from the Board's own assessment (Thedéen: “resource utilisation in Sweden is low”; Hjelm: “Both underlying inflation and resource utilisation are lower than normal at the outset”).

The outlook the Board will set policy against therefore shows inflation both low and still softening on the latest readings. Momentum in core prices has firmed, longer-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored close to the target, and the krona has depreciated modestly since June while oil has risen after spiking as high as 105.32 on 23 July before moving back above USD 90 following the MoU expiry. Activity is above trend on the GDP print and confidence measures, with the labour market flat on the adjusted measure. The inflation level and trajectory are doing the heavy lifting in the case for patience. The Board must weigh whether the latest data is enough to offset the hawkish tilt on supply risks that shaped the June path revision.

5. What the speeches say

Thedéen’s June communications stressed a high threshold for any future asset purchases and the risks to central-bank independence and market functioning and difficult monetary policy trade-offs in the event of supply shocks, while Seim has highlighted upside inflation risks from protracted Middle East conflict and the need for “intense vigilance”. Jansson in May struck a more dovish note, describing low inflation and weak demand as a “good starting point” but warning against an all-clear and noting rising risks of a more serious inflation scenario. Bunge emphasised spare capacity, credibility and the limited gain from pre-emptive responses to current supply shocks. Hjelm’s May and June speeches were the most dovish, repeatedly arguing that it is “appropriate to react less” to supply-driven inflation, that clear communication can reduce the need for tightening, and that economic-policy interaction should protect the real economy.

The June minutes, published after these speeches, captured the same spectrum: Thedéen framed the hold as a small shift tighter, citing rate hikes abroad and elevated global inflation; Seim judged the upward path revision justified by higher inflation risks; Bunge left open some probability of an autumn hike; while Jansson remained sceptical of insurance hikes and Hjelm saw the March path as still reasonable.

6. Scenarios

7. Into the meeting

Attention will centre on the Monetary Policy Update and the minutes (published 25 August). With this meeting not a full forecast round, the statement is likely to reiterate the June assessment that inflation risks have risen since March while acknowledging the latest inflation data. Any change in the balance-of-risks language or in the characterisation of the policy-rate path will be the immediate market focal point; the Board has previously defended CPIF as the target variable while leaning on measures excluding energy and temporary fiscal effects. The krona, oil prices and incoming wage-bargaining signals will be watched for clues on whether the hawkish tilt survives. The August CPIF flash lands on 7 September, eighteen days after the decision, immediately before the next full Monetary Policy Report round on 24 September.

Full analysis on the RoboMacro site → /central-banks/RIKSBANK