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Global Political Observatory

Elections Across the World's 50 Largest Economies

Tracking 86 elections and political events through 2030.

86
Total Events
8
Next 6 Months
50
Countries

Election Prediction Markets

Market-implied probabilities from kalshi.200 markets matched to elections across 12 countries. These are market prices, not RoboMacro predictions.

🇺🇸2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Marco Rubio
18%
J.D. Vance
17%
kalshi · $55.0M vol · Ends 7 Nov 2029
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2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | Marco Rubio: 18% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $54966879.99
🇺🇸Which party will win the U.S. House?
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
17%
kalshi · $19.1M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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Which party will win the U.S. House? | Democratic Party: 83% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $19064981.6
🇺🇸2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, D-Senate
43%
D-House, R-Senate
39%
kalshi · $8.5M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? | D-House, D-Senate: 43% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $8514355.43
🇺🇸Texas Senate winner?
Ken Paxton
58%
James Talarico
43%
kalshi · $6.3M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Texas Senate winner? | Ken Paxton: 58% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $6277383.96
🇺🇸Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Republican Party
57%
Democratic Party
45%
kalshi · $6.2M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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Which party will win the U.S. Senate? | Republican Party: 57% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $6155350.71
🇺🇸Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
Troy Jackson
99%
No one
1%
kalshi · $4.2M vol · Ends 31 Jul 2026
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Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026? | Troy Jackson: 99% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $4231559.88
🇺🇸Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Abdul El-Sayed
71%
Haley Stevens
30%
kalshi · $4.0M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2026
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Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? | Abdul El-Sayed: 71% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $4007157.2
🇺🇸Maine Senate winner?
Troy Jackson
62%
Susan Collins
37%
kalshi · $3.6M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Maine Senate winner? | Troy Jackson: 62% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $3596097.1
🇧🇷Brazil Presidential election winner?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
62%
Flávio Bolsonaro
27%
kalshi · $2.7M vol · Ends 25 Oct 2027
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Brazil Presidential election winner? | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 62% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $2651798.28
🇺🇸South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Darline Graham
73%
Ralph Norman
18%
kalshi · $2.5M vol · Ends 11 Aug 2027
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South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? | Darline Graham: 73% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $2482387.64
🇺🇸How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Below 193
19%
203-207
16%
kalshi · $2.2M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? | Below 193: 19% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $2234010.93
🇺🇸How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Above 52
18%
50
17%
kalshi · $1.8M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | Above 52: 18% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $1825997.61
🇺🇸Maine Senate winner? (Person)
Troy Jackson
63%
Susan Collins
38%
kalshi · $1.8M vol · Ends 7 Jul 2027
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Maine Senate winner? (Person) | Troy Jackson: 63% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $1796368.76
🇺🇸North Carolina Senate winner?
Roy Cooper
90%
Michael Whatley
11%
kalshi · $1.3M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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North Carolina Senate winner? | Roy Cooper: 90% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $1322916.17
🇺🇸Iowa Senate winner?
Ashley Hinson
60%
Josh Turek
42%
kalshi · $969K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Iowa Senate winner? | Ashley Hinson: 60% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $968559.94
🇺🇸Georgia Senate winner?
Jon Ossoff
90%
Mike Collins
11%
kalshi · $933K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Georgia Senate winner? | Jon Ossoff: 90% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $933375.78
🇺🇸How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
226-229
13%
234-237
13%
kalshi · $890K vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? | 234-237: 13% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $890460.93
🇺🇸2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Democrats, 8 to 10%
24%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
22%
kalshi · $691K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) | Democrats, 8 to 10%: 24% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $690780.39
🇺🇸South Carolina Senate winner?
Republican party
87%
Annie Andrews
13%
kalshi · $593K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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South Carolina Senate winner? | Republican party: 87% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $592810.09
🇺🇸Ohio Senate winner?
Sherrod Brown
51%
Jon Husted
50%
kalshi · $590K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Ohio Senate winner? | Sherrod Brown: 51% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $589930.81
🇺🇸Nebraska Senate winner?
Pete Ricketts
71%
Dan Osborn
30%
kalshi · $549K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Nebraska Senate winner? | Pete Ricketts: 71% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $548818.25
🇺🇸Maine Senate Exact Outcome
Democratic party wins
63%
Republican party wins
37%
kalshi · $537K vol · Ends 1 Jan 2027
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Maine Senate Exact Outcome | Democratic party wins: 63% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $536837.12
🇺🇸Alaska Senate winner?
Democratic party
55%
Republican party
45%
kalshi · $472K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Alaska Senate winner? | Democratic party: 55% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $472056.57
🇺🇸How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2
67%
3
24%
kalshi · $361K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2026
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How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026? | 2: 67% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $360988.47
🇺🇸2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?
Democratic Sweep
49%
Republican Sweep
20%
kalshi · $325K vol · Ends 7 Nov 2029
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2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate? | Democratic Sweep: 49% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $325466.95
🇺🇸Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
33%
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
32%
kalshi · $302K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Maine-Texas Senate Combo | Ken Paxton and Susan Collins: 33% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $302439.2
🇺🇸Michigan Senate winner?
Democratic party
70%
Republican party
29%
kalshi · $283K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Michigan Senate winner? | Democratic party: 70% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $282981.3
🇺🇸Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Abdul El-Sayed
59%
Mike Rogers
28%
kalshi · $269K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
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Michigan Senate winner? (Person) | Abdul El-Sayed: 59% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $268572.51
🇺🇸How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
50
16%
49
13%
kalshi · $258K vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
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How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? | 50: 16% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $258208.73
🇺🇸Montana Senate winner?
Kurt Alme
84%
Seth Bodnar
11%
kalshi · $242K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
View →
Montana Senate winner? | Kurt Alme: 84% | Source: kalshi | Volume: $242016.98

Sources: Wikidata SPARQL, IFES Election Guide, and official electoral commissions (linked per event). Last updated: 28 Jul 2026, 05:01.

Dashed borders indicate estimated dates. Change-of-power probabilities are modelled estimates for informational purposes only — not prediction market prices.

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