Global Political Observatory
Elections Across the World's 50 Largest Economies
Tracking 86 elections and political events through 2030.
86
Total Events
8
Next 6 Months
50
Countries
Election Prediction Markets
Market-implied probabilities from kalshi.200 markets matched to elections across 12 countries. These are market prices, not RoboMacro predictions.
🇺🇸2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Marco Rubio18%
J.D. Vance17%
kalshi · $55.0M vol · Ends 7 Nov 2029
🇺🇸Which party will win the U.S. House?
Democratic Party83%
Republican Party17%
kalshi · $19.1M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, D-Senate43%
D-House, R-Senate39%
kalshi · $8.5M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸Texas Senate winner?
Ken Paxton58%
James Talarico43%
kalshi · $6.3M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Republican Party57%
Democratic Party45%
kalshi · $6.2M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
Troy Jackson99%
No one1%
kalshi · $4.2M vol · Ends 31 Jul 2026
🇺🇸Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Abdul El-Sayed71%
Haley Stevens30%
kalshi · $4.0M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2026
🇺🇸Maine Senate winner?
Troy Jackson62%
Susan Collins37%
kalshi · $3.6M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇧🇷Brazil Presidential election winner?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62%
Flávio Bolsonaro27%
kalshi · $2.7M vol · Ends 25 Oct 2027
🇺🇸South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Darline Graham73%
Ralph Norman18%
kalshi · $2.5M vol · Ends 11 Aug 2027
🇺🇸How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Below 19319%
203-20716%
kalshi · $2.2M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Above 5218%
5017%
kalshi · $1.8M vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸Maine Senate winner? (Person)
Troy Jackson63%
Susan Collins38%
kalshi · $1.8M vol · Ends 7 Jul 2027
🇺🇸North Carolina Senate winner?
Roy Cooper90%
Michael Whatley11%
kalshi · $1.3M vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Iowa Senate winner?
Ashley Hinson60%
Josh Turek42%
kalshi · $969K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Georgia Senate winner?
Jon Ossoff90%
Mike Collins11%
kalshi · $933K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
226-22913%
234-23713%
kalshi · $890K vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Democrats, 8 to 10%24%
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
kalshi · $691K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸South Carolina Senate winner?
Republican party87%
Annie Andrews13%
kalshi · $593K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Ohio Senate winner?
Sherrod Brown51%
Jon Husted50%
kalshi · $590K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Nebraska Senate winner?
Pete Ricketts71%
Dan Osborn30%
kalshi · $549K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Maine Senate Exact Outcome
Democratic party wins63%
Republican party wins37%
kalshi · $537K vol · Ends 1 Jan 2027
🇺🇸Alaska Senate winner?
Democratic party55%
Republican party45%
kalshi · $472K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
267%
324%
kalshi · $361K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2026
🇺🇸2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?
Democratic Sweep49%
Republican Sweep20%
kalshi · $325K vol · Ends 7 Nov 2029
🇺🇸Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins33%
James Talarico and Troy Jackson32%
kalshi · $302K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Michigan Senate winner?
Democratic party70%
Republican party29%
kalshi · $283K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Abdul El-Sayed59%
Mike Rogers28%
kalshi · $269K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027
🇺🇸How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
5016%
4913%
kalshi · $258K vol · Ends 1 Feb 2027
🇺🇸Montana Senate winner?
Kurt Alme84%
Seth Bodnar11%
kalshi · $242K vol · Ends 3 Nov 2027

