# RoboMacro — full machine dump

> Companion to https://robomacro.com/llms.txt (https://llmstxt.org).
> This file is the complete product + methodology dump for crawlers that want
> more than the short index.

## Index of ranking / citation URLs

- https://robomacro.com/
- https://robomacro.com/notes
- https://robomacro.com/notes/us
- https://robomacro.com/notes/uk
- https://robomacro.com/notes/ez
- https://robomacro.com/notes/jp
- https://robomacro.com/notes/cn
- https://robomacro.com/calendars
- https://robomacro.com/central-banks
- https://robomacro.com/central-banks/weekly
- https://robomacro.com/taylor
- https://robomacro.com/payrolls
- https://robomacro.com/models/payrolls
- https://robomacro.com/Buffett
- https://robomacro.com/about
- https://robomacro.com/methodology
- https://robomacro.com/methodology/hawk-dove
- https://robomacro.com/methodology/taylor
- https://robomacro.com/methodology/payrolls-lab
- https://robomacro.com/compare
- https://robomacro.com/compare/investing-com
- https://robomacro.com/compare/fred-labor
- https://robomacro.com/compare/hawkometer
- https://robomacro.com/compare/oxford
- https://robomacro.com/open-data
- https://robomacro.ai/fine_tune_data/latest/
- https://robomacro.com/llms.txt

---

# RoboMacro

> AI-powered macroeconomic research and strategy platform. Provides daily macro research notes, central bank analysis, economic calendars, quant strategy tools, and equity screeners — all 100% automated by AI with no human in the loop.

## About

RoboMacro is a financial research platform created by Chris Apostolou, a former economist and credit analyst. The platform automates macroeconomic research using AI, covering global central banks, economic data releases, equity strategy, fixed income, inflation monitoring, and more. It publishes daily research notes on US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, China, and other major economies.

## Brand Identity

RoboMacro uses the "Hairline Gold" design system — a light, modern aesthetic with gold accents designed to convey financial credibility without the typical dark-mode tech look. Primary accent color is dark gold (#a08928). The logo features a geometric RM monogram in dark bronze on a light gray background. The site uses Inter (UI), Libre Baskerville (serif headings), and Source Code Pro (data) fonts.

## Key Products

### Daily Macro Research
- [US Macro Daily](https://robomacro.com/notes/us): Daily analysis of the US economy — Fed policy, Treasuries, dollar, employment, inflation
- [UK Macro Daily](https://robomacro.com/notes/uk): Daily analysis of the UK economy — Bank of England, Gilts, Sterling
- [Eurozone Macro Daily](https://robomacro.com/notes/ez): Daily analysis of the Eurozone — ECB, Bunds, Euro
- [Japan Macro Daily](https://robomacro.com/notes/jp): Daily analysis of Japan — Bank of Japan, JGBs, Yen
- [China Macro Daily](https://robomacro.com/notes/cn): Daily analysis of China — PBOC, Yuan, policy
- [All notes](https://robomacro.com/notes): Full archive across 20+ economies

### Weekly Research
- [Autos Decoded](https://robomacro.com/autos): Weekly analysis of the global automotive sector, plus a US automotive-industry data dashboard — vehicle sales (SAAR), production & inventory, auto credit conditions (new-car loan rate, delinquency), and new/used vehicle prices. Updated monthly from FRED. API: `/api/v1/autos/data`. JSON data: `/autos_cache/autos.json`
- [Liquidity Trader](https://robomacro.com/Liquidity): Daily coverage of liquidity, leverage, gold and bitcoin

### Central Bank Monitoring
- [Central Banks Hawk/Dove Monitor](https://robomacro.com/central-banks): Real-time NLP-scored monetary policy stance across 12 central banks — the G10 (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, BoC, SNB, RBA, RBNZ, Riksbank, Norges Bank) plus the South African Reserve Bank and Banco Central do Brasil. Each bank has a detail page at /central-banks/{CODE} (FED, ECB, BOE, BOJ, BOC, SNB, RBA, RBNZ, RIKSBANK, NORGES, SARB, BCB) carrying the policy-rate history, a hawk/dove stance series, scored speeches and the full decision history with published vote splits where the bank discloses them.
- [This week’s hawk/dove table](https://robomacro.com/central-banks/weekly): Paste-ready scores for YouTube, LinkedIn, and X, plus CSV.
- [Hawk/dove methodology](https://robomacro.com/methodology/hawk-dove): Recipe — scrape, LLM score, seniority and recency weights, composite.
- [Committee Scorecards](https://robomacro.com/central-banks/SARB/scorecard): Per-member hawk/dove scores for every rate-setting committee, at /central-banks/{CODE}/scorecard. Vote disclosure differs by bank and is labelled: some attribute each member's vote, some publish only an unattributed count (the SARB and RBA), and some never vote publicly.
- [Central Bank Policy Previews](https://robomacro.com/central-banks/previews): Pre-decision briefings published the evening before each meeting, covering the data, the committee and the reaction function. Free by email, one per meeting.
- [FOMC Dot Plot Archive](https://robomacro.com/central-banks/FED/scorecard): Complete historical record of FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) since 2012 — every individual dot for federal funds rate, real GDP, unemployment, PCE and core PCE, parsed deterministically from primary Federal Reserve sources and cross-validated against FRED. Includes a model that estimates which member submitted which dot based on their recent speeches.
- [G10 Taylor Rule Monitor](https://robomacro.com/taylor): Prescriptive monetary policy rates for all G10 central banks using the Taylor (1993) rule. Shows whether each bank is too loose, too tight, or neutral relative to what the rule prescribes. Covers Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, BoC, SNB, RBA, RBNZ, Riksbank, Norges Bank. Updated daily from FRED data.
- [Central Bank Podcasts](https://robomacro.com/podcasts): AI-generated audio summaries of central bank speeches and press conferences

### Economic Data Tools
- [Economic Calendar](https://robomacro.com/calendars): Global economic event calendar with historical data and charts
- [G10 Inflation Monitor](https://robomacro.com/inflation): Real-time CPI tracking across 10 developed markets. Also includes a commodity-to-core-CPI pass-through chart (producer commodity prices leading core consumer inflation; API `/api/v1/inflation/passthrough`) and a US inflation surprise index (CPI/PCE actual vs consensus; API `/api/v1/inflation/surprise-index`)
- [Misery Indices](https://robomacro.com/misery): The Misery Index (unemployment + inflation) for 19 G20 economies, plus a Neo-Misery version that adds a house-price-to-income affordability component (the gap between the two lines is the housing burden). One chart per country, two lines each, with a cross-country comparison tool. Updated regularly. API: `GET /api/v1/misery/datasets` and `/api/v1/misery/summary`.
- [US Real Estate Dashboard](https://robomacro.com/realestate): 20+ US real estate indicators (Case-Shiller, FHFA, housing starts, permits, mortgage rates, construction spending, homeownership/vacancy) sourced from FRED with Level/YoY% toggles
- [UK High Speed Indicators & Nowcast](https://robomacro.com/high-speed/uk): UK Nowcast (model estimates of quarterly/monthly GDP, retail sales and unemployment ahead of official release, with out-of-sample backtests) plus 100+ high-frequency indicators

### Quant Strategy Tools
- [Equity Strategy](https://robomacro.com/EquityStrat): Quantitative equity signals, factor analysis, and interactive Model Builder. The Model Builder lets users design and run econometric models from natural language (e.g., "US corporate profits drivers") — AI suggests FRED series, economic rationale, expected coefficient signs, and 50+ model types (ARIMA, VAR, GARCH, VECM, etc.). Model signals include an S&P 500 trailing-EPS momentum chart (year-over-year change in trailing 12-month reported EPS). API: `/api/v1/strategy/equity-strat/model-datasets`
- [G7 Fixed Income Strategy](https://robomacro.com/FixedIncome): Bond market strategy signals across G7. Includes a 10Y real yield vs natural rate (r*) chart and a monetary restrictiveness gauge (10Y real yield minus r*, using the New York Fed's Holston-Laubach-Williams r* estimate). API: `/api/v1/strategy/fi-strat/datasets`
- [Asset Allocation](https://robomacro.com/allocation): Portfolio optimization using mean-variance, risk parity, and Black-Litterman models
- [US Payrolls & Labor Market](https://robomacro.com/payrolls): Non-farm payrolls analysis and labor market indicators
- [Consensus Forecasts](https://robomacro.com/outlook): Weekly median consensus forecasts for GDP growth and inflation across the G10 (US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, Canada, Australia, and more), compiled from official institutional sources (IMF WEO, OECD, Fed SEP, ECB, OBR, BoC, RBA, Riksbank, SNB, Norges Bank, BoJ, RBNZ).

### Volatility
- [VIX & Volatility Markets](https://robomacro.com/vix): Ten tabs of daily volatility analytics rebuilt each morning before the US open from the previous completed session. Regime and level (percentile rank, z-score, regime ribbon, seasonality, spike overlays); term structure (VIX futures curve, constant-maturity tenors VIX1D/9D/VIX/3M/6M, contango metrics, roll yield, calendar spreads, PCA); skew and vol-of-vol (VVIX, VVIX/VIX, Cboe SKEW, put/call); realized volatility and the variance risk premium; the cross-asset volatility complex (MOVE, OVX, GVZ, high-yield OAS); a global equity-volatility map (VXN, RVX, VSTOXX, VFTSE, Nikkei VI, India VIX, VHSI); a cross-asset risk-on/risk-off composite; positioning (CFTC commitments, volatility ETP flows and vega); and a quant lab of regime dynamics (AR(1) half-life, Markov transition matrix, VIX-bucket conditional forward return distributions and conditional tail risk). API: `/api/v1/vix/{bundle}` where bundle is one of vix_core, vix_term_structure, vix_skew, vix_realized, vix_crossasset, vix_global, vix_riskonoff, vix_positioning, vix_quant, vix_options.
- [S&P 500 Options & Levels](https://robomacro.com/vix/options): Readings derived from the S&P 500 option chain captured after each US close — the options-implied expected move to the next expiry and one week out, at-the-money implied volatility by maturity, 25-delta skew (how much more a 25-delta put costs than the matching call, in volatility points), peak open-interest strikes for the front expiry and across the near-dated book, the share of option volume trading in same-day expiries, and an indicative per-strike gamma profile. Session-over-session changes are published for each. Two caveats are load-bearing: the expected move is derived from implied volatility scaled by the square root of calendar time, not read from a straddle price; and the gamma profile assumes market makers are long calls and short puts, which is not observable in public data and is labeled indicative throughout. None of it is a forecast or a recommendation.
- [VIX Daily note](https://robomacro.com/notes): A pre-open volatility note published each weekday morning covering the previous session — the S&P 500 and VIX moves, a dashboard of headline metrics, options-implied levels, historical conditional frequencies for the current VIX band (with sample sizes), the scheduled risk calendar for the sessions ahead, and a composite volatility-regime score with every component disclosed.

### Agent Payments (x402)
- [The x402 Index](https://robomacro.com/x402): An independent index of x402 settlement — the payments AI agents make to APIs — read directly from the Base chain rather than from any aggregator. Covers every EIP-3009 gasless USDC authorization since the protocol launched. Each payment carries a confidence tier: A, paid to an address we have personally received a payment challenge from; B, relayed by an address our detector classifies as a facilitator; C, a short authorization lifetime consistent with per-request minting; D, a long or unreadable expiry, probably a wallet rather than an agent payment. Charts cover daily settled value and count (they diverge sharply — sub-dime payments dominate the count and are a rounding error in value), ticket-size structure, authorization-lifetime distribution, buyer and seller concentration and HHI, cohort retention, seller survival, facilitator market share, and the share of value we can attribute to a named endpoint. Data refreshes weekly on Saturdays. API: `/api/v1/x402/bundle` (all series in one payload), `/api/v1/x402/meta`, `/api/v1/x402/series/{name}`.
- [The x402 Index note](https://robomacro.com/notes): A fortnightly note published every second Saturday on what moved in agent-to-agent settlement — count against value, ticket mix, concentration, and how much of the market can be named. Listed with all research notes.

### Equity Screeners
- [Buffett Lens](https://robomacro.com/Buffett): Warren Buffett-style value equity screener
- [Red Flag Equities](https://robomacro.com/red-flags): Accounting risk and financial fraud detection scanner

### Intelligence Feeds
- [China Monitor](https://robomacro.com/em-news/china): Real-time translation and analysis of Chinese government communications
- [Oil Markets](https://robomacro.com/oil): Oil market data, news, and analysis. Tabs: Dashboard, Prices, Supply, Demand, Inventories, Refining, Trade Flows, Fuels, Futures, Drilling, Fiscal, Geopolitical, Crisis, News. Geopolitical tab includes prediction market probabilities for conflict/sanctions events (Polymarket), financial risk proxies (OVX, gold/oil ratio, credit spreads, defense ETFs, shipping indices), and geopolitical-tagged news. API: `/api/v1/oil/geopolitical`. The Fiscal tab includes US shale breakeven prices by play (WTI needed to profitably drill a new well vs cover existing-well costs, from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey) with a spot-WTI reference line. API: `/api/v1/oil/shale-breakevens`
- [Oil — Drilling Intelligence](https://robomacro.com/oil/drilling): US, Canada, and international active rig counts (weekly, Baker Hughes) and per-basin well activity — wells drilled, completed, and drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) — across the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Appalachia, Haynesville, and Niobrara basins (monthly, EIA Drilling Productivity Report). Updates daily. API: `/api/v1/oil/drilling`
- [Oil — Fuels](https://robomacro.com/oil/fuels): Regional retail fuel prices (Canada provinces, US states/PADD), Singapore (MOPS) and Europe (Rotterdam/NWE) benchmarks, an Aviation Fuel section (A4A/Argus jet index, NWE & Singapore jet kerosene), and per-port marine bunker fuels (HFO 380/180, VLSFO, MGO across Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, Houston, Los Angeles, Hong Kong). APIs: `/api/v1/oil/fuels`, `/api/v1/oil/live`
- [Global Macro News](https://robomacro.com/news): Unified global macro news feed aggregating developed-market and emerging-market sources into a single stream, with per-country tagging and region filters (G7, G20, custom). Updates continuously. API: `GET /api/v1/news`.
- [Global EM News Feed](https://robomacro.com/em-news): Real-time news aggregation from 150+ sources across 6 emerging market regions (Latin America, Central & Eastern Europe, GCC/Middle East, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia). Includes native-language sources (Portuguese, Spanish, Polish, Hungarian, Czech, Turkish) with AI translation. Region-selectable tabs, keyword filtering. Updates every 5 minutes. JSON data per region: `/em_news_cache/{region}.json` (latam, cee, gcc, africa, south_asia, southeast_asia). API: `GET /api/v1/em-news/` (all regions merged) or `GET /api/v1/em-news/{region}`.
- [Global Elections Timeline](https://robomacro.com/elections): Interactive 4-year timeline of elections and political events across the 50 largest economies. Covers presidential, legislative, local, and senate elections plus special political events (China NPC, CPC Congress, etc.). Updated daily from Wikidata. JSON data: `/elections_cache/elections.json`. API: `/api/v1/elections/timeline`
- [Election Prediction Markets](https://robomacro.com/elections/markets): Market-implied probabilities for upcoming elections from Polymarket and Kalshi. Shows outcome prices, price history (90-day), volume, and source attribution. Updated daily. API: `/api/v1/elections/markets`

### Open Data — Weekly Training Dump
A full snapshot of the RoboMacro research archive is exported every Saturday at ~5 AM ET and served as JSONL at `https://robomacro.ai/fine_tune_data/latest/`. Free to use for LLM fine-tuning, RAG pipelines, or research. No login required.

- `documents.jsonl` — one JSON object per line, each a full research document with fields: `id`, `type`, `date`, `title`, `text`, `source_url`, `origin`, `tokens_estimate`. Covers US/UK/EU/JP/CN/EM macro dailies, Autos Weekly, Liquidity Trader, UK High Speed, and more.
- `chunks.jsonl` — same corpus split into section-level chunks (~300–800 tokens each), with `doc_id`, `section`, `chunk_index`, `text`.
- `stats.json` — metadata for the latest snapshot: `run_date`, `total_documents`, `total_chunks`, `total_tokens_estimate`, `approx_mb`, `by_newsletter_type`.

Dated snapshots are kept at `https://robomacro.ai/fine_tune_data/snapshots/YYYY-MM-DD/`. The `latest/` symlink always points to the most recent Saturday run.

## G10 Taylor Rule Monitor (robomacro.com/taylor)

Compares actual central bank policy rates against the rate prescribed by the Taylor (1993) rule for all 10 G10 economies. The page is free and public (no subscription required). Data sourced from FRED; cache refreshed daily at 4:15 AM ET.

### Formula
r = r* + π + 0.5(π − π*) + 0.5(y − y*)

Where:
- **r** = prescribed nominal policy rate
- **r*** = neutral real rate (country-specific, typically 1–2%)
- **π** = current CPI inflation (YoY %)
- **π*** = inflation target (2% for most G10 central banks)
- **y − y*** = output gap (% deviation of real GDP from potential)

### Output Gap Methodology
- **United States**: CBO Potential GDP (GDPPOT series from FRED)
- **All others**: HP filter (λ=1600) applied to log real GDP levels

### Countries Covered
US (Fed funds rate), CA (BoC overnight rate), UK (BoE bank rate), EZ (ECB deposit facility), JP (BoJ overnight call rate), SE (Riksbank repo rate), CH (SNB policy rate), AU (RBA cash rate), NZ (RBNZ OCR), NO (Norges Bank key policy rate).

### Interpretation
- **Gap > 0 (Too Loose)**: Taylor implied rate exceeds actual rate — policy is more accommodative than the rule prescribes
- **Gap < 0 (Too Tight)**: Actual rate exceeds implied rate — policy is more restrictive than prescribed
- **Gap within ±0.5% (Neutral)**: Policy broadly aligned with the Taylor Rule prescription

### Machine Access
Single country: `GET /api/v1/taylor/country/{code}` — codes: US, CA, UK, EZ, JP, SE, CH, AU, NZ, NO
All G10: `GET /api/v1/taylor/data`
Health/staleness: `GET /api/v1/taylor/health`

## US Payrolls & Labor Market Dashboard (robomacro.com/payrolls)

Comprehensive labor market dashboard with 100 chart models across 10 sectors, all sourced from FRED/BLS data. The page is free and public (no subscription required). Charts render interactively via Chart.js with Levels/YoY toggle, smoothing controls, and NBER recession shading.

### Sector 1: Headline Payrolls (9 charts)
1. Total Nonfarm Payrolls — All employees, SA (FRED: PAYEMS)
2. Total Private Payrolls — Private sector excluding government (FRED: USPRIV)
3. Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls — Net new jobs bar chart (FRED: PAYEMS diff)
4. Total NFP vs Private Payrolls — Government job contribution (FRED: PAYEMS, USPRIV)
5. Payrolls Recovery Since Feb 2020 — Rebased to 100: total vs private vs government (FRED: PAYEMS, USPRIV, USGOVT)
6. Goods-Producing vs Service-Providing Employment — Structural shift (FRED: USGOOD, SRVPRD)
7. Establishment vs Household Survey Employment — Divergence monitor (FRED: PAYEMS, CE16OV)
8. Temporary Help Services vs Payrolls MoM Change — Leading indicator, 3-6 month lead (FRED: TEMPHELPS, PAYEMS)
9. Multiple Jobholders — Workers holding more than one job (FRED: LNS12026620)

### Sector 2: Sectoral Employment (7 charts)
10. Education & Health Services Employment — Largest sectoral driver (FRED: USEHS)
11. Government Employment — Federal, state, and local (FRED: USGOVT)
12. Cyclical Sector Employment — Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, Leisure & Hospitality (FRED: USCONS, MANEMP, USTRADE, USLAH)
13. Services Sector Employment — Professional & Business, Financial, Information (FRED: USPBS, USFIRE, USINFO)
14. Mining & Logging Employment — Commodity-sensitive sector (FRED: USMINE)
15. Transportation & Warehousing Employment (FRED: CES4300000001)
16. Federal vs State & Local Government (FRED: CES9091000001, CES9092000001, CES9093000001)

### Sector 3: Wage Growth (14 charts)
17. Average Hourly Earnings — All Employees (FRED: CES0500000003)
18. Average Hourly Earnings — Production Workers (FRED: AHETPI)
19. Average Hourly Earnings: All vs Production Workers (FRED: CES0500000003, AHETPI)
20. Average Hourly Earnings — YoY % (FRED: CES0500000003, AHETPI)
21. Employment Cost Index (FRED: ECIALLCIV)
22. Avg Hourly Earnings by Major Sector — Manufacturing, Leisure, Prof & Business, Construction
23. Avg Hourly Earnings by Sector — YoY %
24. Real Median Usual Weekly Earnings (FRED: LES1252881600Q)
25. Wage Growth vs CPI Inflation (FRED: CPIAUCSL, CES0500000003)
26. Wage Growth vs CPI Inflation — YoY %
27. Nonfarm Business — Real Compensation Per Hour (FRED: COMPRNFB)
28. Median Usual Weekly Earnings (FRED: LES1252881600Q)
29. Real Compensation & Weekly Earnings — YoY %
30. Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker Proxy — ECI Wages & Salaries (FRED: ECIWAG)

### Sector 4: Hours & Productivity (8 charts)
31. Average Weekly Hours — All Employees (FRED: AWHAETP)
32. Manufacturing Hours & Overtime (FRED: AWHMAN, AWOTMAN)
33. Labor Productivity — Output Per Hour (FRED: OPHNFB)
34. Unit Labor Costs vs CPI (FRED: ULCNFB, CPIAUCSL)
35. Productivity & Unit Labor Costs — YoY %
36. Productivity vs Real Compensation (FRED: OPHNFB, COMPRNFB)
37. Labor Share of Income (FRED: PRS85006173)
38. Aggregate Weekly Hours — Total Private (FRED: AWHAE)

### Sector 5: Unemployment (13 charts)
39. US Unemployment Rate U-3 (FRED: UNRATE)
40. US Underemployment Rate U-6 (FRED: U6RATE)
41. U-3 vs U-6 Unemployment Rate
42. Unemployment Level (FRED: UNEMPLOY)
43. Long-Term Unemployed 27+ Weeks (FRED: UEMP27OV)
44. Unemployment by Duration — <5, 5-14, 15-26, 27+ weeks
45. Unemployment by Duration — YoY %
46. Unemployment Duration: Median vs Mean (FRED: UEMPMED, UEMPMEAN)
47. Initial Unemployment Claims — Weekly (FRED: ICSA)
48. Continued Unemployment Claims (FRED: CCSA)
49. Initial vs Continued Claims
50. Initial vs Continued Claims — MoM Change
51. Insured Unemployment Rate (FRED: IURSA)

### Sector 6: Labor Force (10 charts)
52. Labor Force Participation Rate (FRED: CIVPART)
53. Prime-Age 25-54 LFPR (FRED: LNS11300060)
54. Women's LFPR (FRED: LNS11300002)
55. Men vs Women LFPR
56. Employment-Population Ratio (FRED: EMRATIO)
57. Prime-Age Employment-Population Ratio (FRED: LNS12300060)
58. Civilian Employment Level (FRED: CE16OV)
59. Civilian Labor Force Level (FRED: CLF16OV)
60. Persons Not in the Labor Force (FRED: LNS15000000)
61. Civilian Labor Force & Not in Labor Force — YoY %

### Sector 7: Full-Time / Part-Time (6 charts)
62. Full-Time Employment Level (FRED: LNS12500000)
63. Part-Time Employment Level (FRED: LNS12600000)
64. Full-Time vs Part-Time Employment
65. Part-Time for Economic Reasons — Involuntary (FRED: LNS12032194)
66. Full-Time vs Part-Time: Pandemic Recovery (rebased to Feb 2020)
67. Employment Quality Dashboard — Full-Time, Part-Time, Involuntary PT

### Sector 8: JOLTS & Turnover (10 charts)
68. Job Openings JOLTS (FRED: JTSJOL)
69. Quits Rate JOLTS (FRED: JTSQUR)
70. Hires Rate JOLTS (FRED: JTSHIR)
71. Layoffs & Discharges Rate JOLTS (FRED: JTSLDL)
72. JOLTS Dashboard: Openings, Hires, Quits & Layoffs — All rates
73. Job Openings vs Unemployed Persons (Beveridge curve proxy)
74. Job Openings vs Unemployed — Since 2022
75. Quits Rate vs Wage Growth YoY
76. Total Separations Rate vs Payrolls
77. Quits vs Hires Level JOLTS

### Sector 9: Demographics (13 charts)
78. Black or African American Unemployment Rate (FRED: LNS14000006)
79. Hispanic or Latino Unemployment Rate (FRED: LNS14000009)
80. Teen Unemployment Rate 16-19 (FRED: LNS14000012)
81. Unemployment Rate by Race — White, Black, Hispanic
82. Unemployment Rate by Race — Since 2022
83. Unemployment Rate: Men vs Women
84. Unemployment Rate: Men vs Women — Since 2022
85. Unemployment by Education Level — Less Than HS, High School, Some College, Bachelor's+
86. Unemployment by Education — Since 2022
87. Labor Force Participation by Age — 16-19, 20-24, 25-54, 55+
88. Employment-Population Ratio by Race
89. Black-to-White Unemployment Ratio
90. Veterans Unemployment Rate (FRED: LNU04049526)

### Sector 10: Recession Signals (12 charts)
91. Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (FRED: SAHMREALTIME)
92. KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index (FRED: FRBKCLMCILA)
93. Unemployment Rate vs NFP Level
94. Initial Claims vs Unemployment Rate
95. Temp Help Services — Leading NFP (3-6 month lead)
96. Manufacturing Overtime — Leading NFP
97. Manufacturing Overtime — Since 2022
98. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs Payrolls MoM
99. Job Openings Rate vs Unemployment Rate
100. Job Openings Rate vs Unemployment — Since 2022
101. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (FRED: CFNAI)
102. Chicago Fed NAI vs Payrolls MoM — Since 2022

All data is sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), Conference Board, and Kansas City Fed. Charts update monthly (or weekly for claims data) when new BLS releases are published.

## Macro Models (robomacro.com/models)

Two interactive macro models share a single tabbed page at `/models`.

### G7 HANK Models (robomacro.com/models/hank)
Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian models covering all G7 economies (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada). The UK model is open-source and replicates the Bank of England MTP-7 reference results to 97–100% on standard monetary shocks. The remaining G7 countries are re-estimated with proprietary calibrations. Users can select a country, choose a preset policy scenario (rate hike, rate cut, fiscal shock, etc.), and inspect impulse response functions for 12 core variables (output, consumption, inflation, interest rates, employment, etc.) over 20 quarters. All compute happens client-side — no server load.

### Global Macro Model (robomacro.com/models/global-macro-v5 and /models/global-macro-v4)
A 30-country coupled macro scenario simulator with 26 charted variables spanning core macro, financial (including 2y/5y/10y government-bond yields), real economy, fiscal and trade, prices, labor, banking and credit, and sectoral blocks. Users compose custom shocks — monetary (±400 bp), oil price ($20–400/bbl), housing wealth (±30%), fiscal spending (±10% GDP), risk premium (0–500 bp), VIX (10–100), bank equity (0 to −40%), and bilateral tariffs (0–60%) — and see 20-quarter impulse responses across all 30 countries. 28 precomputed preset scenarios are available (rate hike/cut clusters, oil spike/collapse, trade war, housing crash, banking crisis, etc.). Custom shocks are solved server-side; a client-side fallback delivers approximate answers if the server is unreachable. Two generations are live: v4 (/models/global-macro-v4) shows impulse responses as deviations from steady state, and v5 (/models/global-macro-v5) adds Real Data Mode, which starts the model from today's measured policy rates, inflation, unemployment, government-bond yields and oil price — refreshed daily from central banks, finance ministries, national statistical offices, Eurostat, OECD, IMF, BIS and market data — and charts projected levels alongside a no-shock baseline: yield paths are anchored to today's actual curve (expectations-hypothesis policy path plus a term premium backed out from observed yields), with a yield-curve panel (policy/2y/5y/10y: observed now vs model baseline vs scenario one year out) and a per-country panel showing every anchor value, source institution and reference date. Status: public beta / work in progress — bug reports welcome.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is RoboMacro?
A: RoboMacro is an AI-powered macroeconomic research platform that provides daily research notes, economic calendars, central bank monitoring, quant strategy tools, and equity screeners. Daily research is 100% automated with no human in the loop.

Q: Who created RoboMacro?
A: RoboMacro was created by Chris Apostolou, a former economist and credit analyst with 9+ years of buy-side and sell-side experience.

Q: Is RoboMacro free?
A: RoboMacro offers free access to most of its research content. Some premium features may require registration.

Q: What countries/regions does RoboMacro cover?
A: RoboMacro covers all major economies including US, UK, Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands), Japan, China, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, South Korea, India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, South Africa, and more.

Q: What data sources does RoboMacro use?
A: RoboMacro pulls data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), OECD, World Bank, and other official statistical agencies.

Q: How often is the content updated?
A: Daily research notes are published every business day. Economic calendar data and central bank scores are updated in real-time. Strategy tools update daily.

## US Real Estate Dashboard (robomacro.com/realestate)

Consolidated dashboard for the US housing and residential real estate market.

### What it provides
- **Home Prices**: Case-Shiller US National and 20-City Composite indices, FHFA All-Transactions HPI, median and average sales prices (quarterly Census).
- **Metro Heatmap**: Case-Shiller YoY% for 12 major metros plus national starts/permits/existing-sales/30Y mortgage (served from the /api/v1/realestate/housing-metro endpoint).
- **Supply & Activity**: Housing starts (total + 1-unit), building permits, completions, new and existing home sales, months of supply, new houses for sale.
- **Mortgages & Financing**: Freddie Mac 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates, FDIC single-family residential delinquency rate.
- **Residential Construction**: Census total and private residential construction spending, with YoY% views.
- **Ownership & Vacancy**: Homeownership rate, rental vacancy, homeowner vacancy — Census Housing Vacancy Survey.

### Data sources (all free)
- FRED series: CSUSHPINSA, SPCS20RSA, USSTHPI, MSPUS, ASPUS, HOUST, HOUST1F, PERMIT, COMPUTSA, HSN1F, EXHOSLUSM495S, MSACSR, HNFSEPUSSA, MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US, DRSFRMACBS, TLRESCONS, PRRESCONS, RHORUSQ156N, RRVRUSQ156N, RHVRUSQ156N.
- Case-Shiller metro indices: NYXRSA, LXXRSA, CHXRSA, DAXRSA, MIXRSA, SFXRSA, SEXRNSA, DNXRSA, PHXRNSA, WDXRSA, BOXRSA, ATXRSA.

### Update frequency
- Server cache: 24 hours (underlying FRED data refreshes daily at most).
- Series coverage: back to 2000 for most indicators; quarterly series carry longer history.

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/realestate/bundle` — all configured series in one JSON payload (24h cache)
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/realestate/series/{series_id}?transform=level|yoy` — single whitelisted FRED series with optional YoY transform
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/realestate/housing-metro` — metro YoY% heatmap plus national indicators

## FX Volatility Intelligence Dashboard (robomacro.com/fx/vol)

Practitioner-grade G10 FX options analytics for professional vol traders. Each section has its own URL.

### What it provides
- **Spot & Realized Vol Monitor** (/fx/vol): G10 spot ladder with 5D/20D/60D/252D realized vol. Vol cone chart (rolling percentile bands). Spot-vol beta (rolling 20D correlation).
- **Implied Vol Surface Builder** (/fx/vol/surface-builder): Paste Bloomberg-style OTC quotes (ATM vol, 25Δ RR, 25Δ BF). Vanna-Volga interpolation produces full smile by tenor. Term structure, skew slope, and curvature diagnostics. Optional EOD model butterfly estimate derived from realized-return tail statistics (Gram-Charlier kurtosis mapping, vol-of-vol scaled) when no market BF quote is available.
- **Greeks & Scenarios** (/fx/vol/greeks): Full Garman-Kohlhagen Greeks ladder for any option on the user-built surface — first order (delta spot/forward, vega, theta, domestic & foreign rho, lambda, dual delta), second order (gamma, vanna, volga/vomma, charm, veta), third order (speed, zomma, color, ultima) — per-unit and cash on notional, finite-difference validated. Plus spot-move and vol-shock sliders with 25Δ vol change by tenor, and a complete Greeks glossary with formulas.
- **Regime Classifier** (/fx/vol/regime): 5D/60D realized vol ratio. Classifies regime as Calm / Event Risk / Sustained Stress. Historical ratio chart.
- **RV Signals** (/fx/vol/rv-signals): All G10 pairs ranked by 20D vol vs 252D percentile. Cheap/Fair/Rich signal. Carry/vol ratio (Sharpe-style).
- **Carry Matrix** (/fx/vol/carry-matrix): 9×9 G10 interest rate differential grid (3M OECD MEI rates). Realized vol grid. Carry/vol grid.
- **CFTC Positioning by pair** (/fx/positioning): Net positioning differential in US dollars for 28 G8 currency pairs, from the CFTC's weekly Traders in Financial Futures report (free). Seven dollar pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY) are the reported futures contracts re-expressed in pair convention and are labelled observed. The 21 crosses (EURGBP, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURJPY, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDJPY, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, CADCHF, CADJPY, CHFJPY) have NO futures contract: their positioning is IMPLIED by converting each dollar leg to US dollars at the CME contract size and the daily close joined to that report date, then subtracting the quote leg from the base leg. Every figure is labelled observed or implied accordingly, and a derived figure must not be reported as a CFTC-published one. The number is a differential, not the size of a carveable cross position. Cross-sectional dashboard with change since the previous report and z-scores at 52/90/104/156/260/520-week rolling windows (sample sigma, n-1; a window without its full count of prior reports returns no value rather than a shorter window relabelled). Two-pane chart: the pair rate in market convention over the differential, with the rolling z-score and plus/minus 2 and 3 sigma reference lines, over up to twenty years of weekly reports (2006-06-13 onward). Neither axis is inverted — position and price are both in pair convention. A per-pair decomposition shows each leg's own z-score on its net contracts plus the correlation between the legs. A by-currency view (/fx/positioning?view=currencies) reports net positions in contracts per currency and additionally covers MXN, BRL, ZAR and the ICE dollar index (a basket, shown separately). Trader categories: leveraged funds, asset managers. Weekly: report date is a Tuesday, published the following Friday 15:30 ET.

The RV Signals, Carry Matrix and Vol Correlation views now cover the full G8 universe of 28 pairs (7 USD majors + 21 non-USD crosses across USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD) — e.g. GBPAUD, NZDCAD, EURNZD, CHFJPY.

## FX Pair Pages (robomacro.com/fx/pair/{PAIR})

Per-pair dashboards for any of the 28 G8 pairs (e.g. /fx/pair/NZDCAD). Each shows: both legs' CFTC COT net-speculative positioning (base vs quote) with a combined-crowding score (overcrowded / balanced verdict), real daily spot and realized volatility with regime classification, daily technicals (SMA/RSI/52w range), and the policy-rate and bond-yield differential. USD-cross COT uses the ICE Dollar-Index futures proxy (flagged in-page).

## FX Yield Intelligence (robomacro.com/fx/yields)

FX pair spot plotted against the sovereign government-bond yield differential (base country minus quote country) at a selectable tenor (2Y / 5Y / 10Y) and rolling lookback window (1Y / 2Y / 3Y / 5Y). Includes a raw dual-axis chart (yield differential vs spot with an implied fair-value line), a [0,1]-normalized overlay that puts spot and the rate spread on one axis to reveal divergences, and a rolling-regression implied fair value with a rich/cheap residual z-score and a stable/weak/inverted relationship classifier. Covers all 28 G8 pairs at 2Y and 10Y; 5Y is omitted for NZD and CHF legs where no real government-bond series exists (never synthesized).

### Data sources (all free)
- FRED: DEXUSEU, DEXUSUK, DEXJPUS, DEXUSAL, DEXUSNZ, DEXSZUS, DEXCAUS, DEXNOUS, DEXSDUS (daily FX spot); yfinance daily closes for crosses
- FRED: TB3MS, IR3TIB01EZM156N, IR3TIB01GBM156N, etc. (3M interbank rates); DGS2/DGS5/DGS10 (US Treasury yields)
- FinanceFlow: daily 2Y/5Y/10Y sovereign bond yields (non-US)
- CFTC: Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) annual ZIPs
- User input: OTC implied vol quotes (no free implied vol API exists)

### Update frequency
- Spot/vol data: refreshed every 4 hours from FRED
- Carry matrix: every 6 hours
- COT: daily (underlying data weekly)

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/fx-vol/rv-signals` — G10 RV signals (no auth)
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/fx-vol/spot-history?pair=EURUSD` — spot + realized vol history
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/fx-vol/carry-matrix` — G10 carry matrix
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/fx-vol/cot?currency=EUR` — CFTC COT data
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/fx-vol/regime?pair=EURUSD` — regime classification

### Bot-Facing Domain
`https://robomacro.ai` serves bot-optimized static HTML versions of all pages.

## Payrolls Forecasting Lab (robomacro.com/models/payrolls)

10 independent forecasting models all targeting the same Friday BLS Employment Situation release. Models span the full methodology spectrum: from classic time-series econometrics (AR, SARIMAX, VAR, Unobserved Components, MIDAS) through regularized linear regression, tree ensembles, and gradient boosting (ElasticNet, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM+Regime, Neural Network MLP).

### What it provides
- **Hub page**: Ensemble consensus (median of 10 models) for 4 targets — NFP, Unemployment Rate, Part-Time Workers, Avg Hourly Earnings YoY — with 80% prediction intervals and a disagreement chart showing how much the models diverge
- **10 model sub-pages**: Each model gets a dedicated page with methodology description, mathematical formula, backtest charts (forecast vs actual with 80% PI shading), residuals analysis, feature importance (ML models), and metrics table (MAE, RMSE, directional accuracy, PI coverage)
- **Walk-forward backtest**: Expanding-window refit from 2021-04 onward, ~60 out-of-sample months per model
- **Targets**: NFP MoM (thousands), UNRATE (%), Part-time workers for economic reasons (thousands), AHE YoY (%)

### Data sources
- FRED: PAYEMS (NFP), UNRATE, LNS12032194 (part-time), CES0500000003 (AHE), ICSA/CCSA (weekly claims), JTSJOL/JTSHIR/JTSQUR (JOLTS), ADPMNUSSNERSA (ADP SA), NAPMEI (ISM Mfg employment), NMFEI (ISM Services employment), USSLIND (Conference Board LEI), CFNAI, 80+ sectoral payroll series

### Update frequency
- Models refit weekly (Thursday 8:35 AM ET after jobless claims release)
- Full refit on BLS release day (Friday 8:30 AM ET) — forecasts roll to next month

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/payrolls-forecasting/index` — all 10 model forecasts + ensemble for this Friday
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/payrolls-forecasting/model/{model_id}` — full backtest + residuals + feature importance for one model
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/payrolls-forecasting/ensemble` — consensus only (median/mean/std/PI)

Model IDs: naive-ar, sarimax, var, uc-stochastic-trend, midas, elasticnet, random-forest, xgboost, lightgbm-regime, mlp-neural-net

## High-Speed Economic Data (robomacro.com/high-speed)

Multi-country hub for daily and weekly high-frequency indicators that read the economy weeks ahead of official statistics. Fourteen economies carry a Nowcast panel — daily model estimates of not-yet-published official statistics (GDP and, where the country's data supports them, industrial production, retail sales, monthly activity and the unemployment rate), each with its walk-forward backtest (MAE, accuracy vs an autoregressive benchmark) and an 80% error band: UK, US, Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Mexico.

### What it provides
- **Country hub** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed): registry of live and planned countries with headline composite indices, dataset counts, freshness grades, and the rollout roadmap.
- **United Kingdom — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/uk): the UK Nowcast — daily model estimates of quarterly GDP, monthly GDP, retail sales, and the unemployment rate ahead of official release, each with its walk-forward backtest (MAE, accuracy vs an autoregressive benchmark) and a weekly activity index — plus 100+ daily and weekly UK indicators (ONS faster indicators, power demand, card spend, job ads, Google Trends), the UK Sentiment Composite, and macro-overlay comparisons against official GDP, retail sales, unemployment, and CPI. Updated 4x daily.
  UK Nowcast JSON: `GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/strategy/uk-high-speed/nowcasts`
- **United States — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/us): US Nowcast (quarterly GDP SAAR, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment; daily model estimates with published backtests); Weekly Economic Index, initial and continued jobless claims, Chicago Fed financial conditions, 30-year mortgage rate, retail gasoline price (FRED); daily federal withheld tax deposits (Daily Treasury Statement); Indeed job postings; TSA checkpoint travelers; EIA petroleum products supplied; S&P 500 and 10Y Treasury yield.
- **Euro Area — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/ez): Euro Area Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); daily Eurocontrol flights summed across 19 member states; Indeed job postings aggregate (DE, FR, IT, ES, NL mean); EURO STOXX 50 and EUR/USD.
- **Germany — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/de): Germany Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index; daily truck toll mileage index (Destatis/BALM); SMARD electricity consumption; Eurocontrol flights; Indeed job postings; DAX and EUR/USD.
- **France — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/fr): France Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); RTE eCO2mix electricity consumption; INSEE business climate, household confidence, and business creations; Eurocontrol flights; Indeed job postings; CAC 40.
- **Spain — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/es): Spain Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); Eurocontrol daily flights to/from/within Spain vs 2019 reference. Phase 2 will add REE ESIOS electricity and Social Security affiliations.
- **Italy — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/it): Italy Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); Eurocontrol daily flights to/from/within Italy vs 2019 reference. Phase 2 will add Terna electricity demand.
- **Poland — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/pl): Poland Nowcast (quarterly GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); Eurocontrol daily flights to/from/within Poland vs 2019 reference. Phase 2 will add GUS/BDL statistics.
- **Japan — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/jp): Japan Nowcast (quarterly GDP SAAR, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY in supplementary series. Phase 2 will add BOJ API and TEPCO electricity demand.
- **Canada — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/ca): Canada Nowcast (quarterly GDP SAAR, monthly GDP, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); Statistics Canada LFS monthly unemployment rate, 15+ SA (%) and employment 15+ SA (000s) from table 14-10-0017; S&P/TSX Composite and USD/CAD in supplementary series.
- **Australia — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/au): Australia Nowcast (quarterly GDP, unemployment); Indeed job postings (SA, Feb 2020 = 100); S&P/ASX 200 and AUD/USD in supplementary series. Phase 2 will add AEMO daily electricity demand and ABS household spending indicator.
- **New Zealand — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/nz): New Zealand Nowcast (quarterly GDP, ~11 weeks ahead of the official release); S&P/NZX 50 and NZD/USD in supplementary series. Phase 2 will add StatsNZ electronic card transactions and EMI electricity.
- **Brazil — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/br): Brazil Nowcast (quarterly GDP, monthly IBC-Br activity, unemployment, plus a weekly activity index); BCB SGS IBC-Br monthly activity index SA (YoY %, series 24369); CAGED formal employment stock (monthly, series 28763); Selic target rate (daily, series 432); Ibovespa (B3) and USD/BRL in supplementary series.
- **China — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/cn): Shanghai Composite (SSE) and USD/CNY in supplementary series. Curated coverage; Chinese high-frequency data availability is constrained. Phase 2 will add NBS monthly series via existing china_cache.
- **Mexico — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/mx): Mexico Nowcast (quarterly GDP, unemployment); BMV IPC and USD/MXN in supplementary series. Phase 2 will add Banxico SIE API and INEGI IGAE monthly activity index.
- **Belgium — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/be): national electricity demand (grid load, daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Netherlands — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/nl): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, IMF PortWatch port activity, and Indeed weekly job postings.
- **Ireland — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/ie): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, IMF PortWatch port activity, and Indeed weekly job postings.
- **Greece — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/gr): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Portugal — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/pt): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Austria — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/at): national electricity demand (daily) and Eurocontrol daily flights.
- **Finland — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/fi): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Sweden — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/se): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Denmark — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/dk): national electricity demand (daily), Eurocontrol daily flights, and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **Switzerland — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/ch): national electricity demand (daily) and Eurocontrol daily flights.
- **South Korea — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/kr): KPX national electricity peak demand (daily) and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.
- **South Africa — live** (https://robomacro.com/high-speed/za): Eskom national electricity demand (daily) and IMF PortWatch daily port activity.

### Update frequency
- Indicator caches refresh daily (UK 4x daily); macro overlays rebuild daily against the latest official releases.

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/countries` — country registry: live countries (headline composites, dataset count, freshness) plus the planned roadmap
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/datasets` — full indicator time series for a live country (e.g. `uk`)
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/additional-datasets` — supplementary indicator series
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/composite-indices` — composite activity indices
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/freshness` — per-dataset freshness/staleness report
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/macro-overlays` — high-speed composites vs official GDP, retail, unemployment, CPI
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/high-speed/{country}/nowcasts` — the country's nowcast payload: model estimates, 80% bands, milestones, walk-forward backtest metrics, weekly activity index where published (404 for countries without a nowcast)

## Credit Markets Dashboard (robomacro.com/credit)

Standalone corporate credit section: spreads, ratings ladder, EM and European credit, and credit ETFs.

### What it provides
- **US Investment Grade**: ICE BofA IG OAS plus the full ratings ladder (AAA, AA, A, BBB), IG effective yield, Moody's Baa/Aaa spreads vs 10Y UST.
- **US High Yield**: HY OAS with BB / B / CCC-and-lower ladder, HY effective yield, HY-vs-IG comparison.
- **EM & Europe**: EM corporate OAS, EM high grade vs high yield, regional OAS (Latin America, Asia, EMEA), Euro high yield OAS.
- **Conditions & ETFs**: Chicago Fed NFCI, Fed SLOOS bank-tightening share, 10Y-2Y curve, and credit ETF prices (LQD, HYG, JNK, EMB, EMLC, BKLN).

### Data sources (all free)
- FRED: BAMLC0A0CM, BAMLC0A1CAAA, BAMLC0A2CAA, BAMLC0A3CA, BAMLC0A4CBBB, BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLH0A1HYBB, BAMLH0A2HYB, BAMLH0A3HYC, BAMLC0A0CMEY, BAMLH0A0HYM2EY, BAA10Y, AAA10Y, BAMLEMCBPIOAS, BAMLEMIBHGCRPIOAS, BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS, BAMLEMRLCRPILAOAS, BAMLEMRACRPIASIAOAS, BAMLEMRECRPIEMEAOAS, BAMLHE00EHYIOAS, NFCI, DRTSCILM, T10Y2Y.
- Market data for ETF daily closes.

### Update frequency
- Cache rebuilt daily at 10:30 UTC; OAS series are daily (1-day FRED lag).

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/credit/datasets` — all credit series as JSON time series
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/credit/summary` — latest spreads with 1-period and ~1-month changes

## China Dashboard (robomacro.com/china)

Dedicated China macro dashboard: growth, inflation, PBoC policy, trade, the yuan, and Chinese equity markets, plus the Greater China news feed. Every chart pairs two series — a correlation or an implied-expectations spread — so the relationship is visible, not just the level.

### What it provides
- **Activity & Sentiment**: real GDP YoY vs QoQ, Caixin PMIs, official NBS vs Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs, consumer confidence vs house prices, youth unemployment (15-24) vs growth.
- **Inflation & Policy**: CPI vs PPI YoY, CPI YoY vs MoM, real policy rate (5Y LPR vs CPI), policy vs market rates (LPR vs 3M interbank), fiscal position (govt debt/GDP vs augmented deficit, annual).
- **Trade & External**: merchandise trade levels (exports vs imports, USD), trade balance in USD vs yuan, FX reserves vs USD/CNY.
- **Markets & FX**: USD/CNY vs the trade-weighted yuan (NEER/REER), exports vs the real effective yuan (competitiveness), mainland vs Hong Kong equities (CSI 300, Hang Seng, H-shares, rebased).

### Data sources
- RoboMacro calendar pipeline (NBS, PBoC, Customs, S&P Global/Caixin releases), RoboMacro series store (BIS effective exchange rates, CSI 300 / Hang Seng / HSCEI market indices, consumer confidence), and FRED (USD/CNY, FX reserves, govt debt/GDP, 3M interbank rate, merchandise trade levels and derived balance, ILO youth unemployment).

### Update frequency
- Cache rebuilt daily at 11:00 UTC; underlying calendar series update on release.

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/china/datasets` — all China series as JSON time series
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/china/summary` — latest activity/inflation/external/markets snapshot
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/em-news/china` — Greater China news articles

## Commodity Term Structure (robomacro.com/commodities/roll)
Forward curves for 23 US commodity futures (energy, precious and base metals,
grains, softs, livestock), fetched per delivery month from CME/ICE — never a
continuous front-month splice. Contango/backwardation state, front-to-next
calendar spread, annualised roll yield, and daily M1-M2 spread history per
market. Data: /cmdty_cache/curves.json (snapshot, updated each trading day).

## Commodities Hub (robomacro.com/commodities)

Metals, agriculture, carbon, and bulk commodities. Oil & gas has its own deep dive at robomacro.com/oil.

### What it provides
- **Metals**: gold/silver/platinum/palladium/copper futures (daily), IMF benchmark prices for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, iron ore (monthly).
- **Agriculture**: IMF monthly benchmarks for wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugar, coffee, cocoa, cotton, plus the IMF food price index.
- **Carbon & Bulk**: EU and UK carbon allowances, thermal and Newcastle coal, IMF energy and all-commodity indices.
- **Live banner**: intraday metals/carbon snapshots (gold, silver, copper, iron ore, EUA, coal) from the live commodity poller.

### Data sources
- FRED (IMF Primary Commodity Prices), market data for futures, live commodity poller for intraday metals/carbon.

### Update frequency
- Cache rebuilt daily at 11:30 UTC; live prices refresh intraday during market hours; IMF benchmarks are monthly.

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/datasets` — IMF monthlies + futures as JSON time series
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/live` — live metals/carbon/petrochemical prices
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/live/history` — rolling intraday history
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/summary` — latest levels with % changes

### COT Positioning Monitor (robomacro.com/commodities/positioning)
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders positioning for 23 US-listed commodity futures across energy, metals, grains & oilseeds, softs and livestock. Four trader books — managed money (funds and CTAs), producer/merchant/processor/user, swap dealers, other reportables — as net long minus short contracts, futures-only, z-scored against six rolling windows (13, 26, 52, 90, 104 and 156 weeks) and plotted against each contract's own price at the report date. Roughly twenty years of weekly reports; net as a share of open interest and week-on-week change on every row.
- **Managed money is not the legacy non-commercial number.** The Disaggregated report splits the reportable book four ways where the legacy report split it two; managed money is a subset of the old non-commercial bucket, not a rename of it (swap dealers were previously counted as commercial, and other reportables absorbs the rest). The two figures for the same contract on the same date differ, and neither is wrong.
- **The lag is the release schedule, not a data lag.** Every report is a Tuesday close-of-business snapshot published the following Friday at 15:30 ET, so the freshest positioning available is three to ten days old. The price on each row is the daily close on or before that Tuesday, never a later one.
- **A z-score is a position measured against a window**, so the window is part of the number: 52-week and 156-week windows on the same series give different means, standard deviations and sigmas. A partial window is left blank rather than scored, and a shorter window is never substituted for a longer one.
- **Brent is the NYMEX Brent Last Day Financial contract** — the only Brent in the CFTC file. ICE Brent futures are regulated in the UK and are not in the report at all; the price line beside it is Europe Brent spot.

### Per-contract pages (robomacro.com/commodities/{slug})
One page per contract: price history, positioning history, the headline z at the platform window, net as a share of open interest, and the price-to-report-date join rule printed under the chart. The 23 slugs, by group —
Energy: `wti`, `brent`, `rbob`, `heating-oil`, `natural-gas`
Metals: `gold`, `silver`, `copper`, `platinum`, `palladium`
Grains & oilseeds: `corn`, `wheat-srw`, `wheat-hrw`, `soybeans`, `soybean-oil`, `soybean-meal`
Softs: `sugar`, `coffee`, `cocoa`, `cotton`
Livestock: `live-cattle`, `feeder-cattle`, `lean-hogs`

### Positioning data sources
- CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (Socrata), LBMA, EIA/FRED, Yahoo Finance daily closes; COT released Fridays 15:30 ET for the prior Tuesday.

### Positioning update frequency
- Positioning weekly, refreshed after each Friday 15:30 ET release; contract prices daily.

### Positioning Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/cot-dashboard?category=mm&windows=13,26,52,90,104,156&group=energy` — the cross-section: every contract at every z window in one request (`category`: mm, pm, swap, other; `group` optional)
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/cot-history?market=gold&category=mm&price=true` — the full weekly record for one contract, z pre-computed at every window, each report date joined to the close on or before it
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/price-history?market=gold` — the daily close series for one contract
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/prices` — the price strip: latest level with 1d/1w/ytd/52w statistics per contract
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/meta` — the contract catalog: slugs, labels, groups, units, exchanges and the offered z windows
Example: `curl -s 'https://robomacro.com/api/v1/commodities/cot-dashboard?category=mm&windows=52'`

## Agricultural Commodities — Deep Dashboard (robomacro.com/commodities/ags)

A dedicated, analytical agricultural-commodities dashboard with 10 sections (Overview, Grains & Oilseeds, Softs, Livestock & Dairy, Fundamentals, Positioning, Spreads & Margins, Seasonality, Valuation, Inputs). Section is selected via `?section=` (e.g. /commodities/ags?section=fundamentals).

### What it provides
- **Broad price universe**: grains, oilseeds, the vegetable-oil complex, softs (coffee/sugar/cocoa/cotton/rubber/tea), livestock & dairy, fruit, timber, and fertilizers (urea, DAP, TSP, potash, phosphate rock) — monthly $/mt or $/kg, plus daily front-month futures.
- **Fundamentals**: USDA PSD global supply/demand and the **stocks-to-use ratio** (the key tightness gauge) for wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, cotton and sugar; US production/yield/acreage (NASS); weekly export sales (ESR).
- **Positioning**: CFTC managed-money net positioning per ag future (weekly), with 3-year percentile and price overlay.
- **Derived analytics**: real (CPI-deflated) prices, z-scores, percentile rank, seasonality, soybean crush margin, wheat-corn and hog/corn spreads, veg-oil substitution, and a cross-complex movers ranking.
- **FAO Food Price Index** + sub-indices (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, sugar).

### Data sources (all free)
- World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly prices + fertilizers), USDA FAS PSD/ESR + NASS QuickStats, CFTC Commitments of Traders, FAO Food Price Index, EIA biofuels, FRED/IMF (CPI deflator + benchmarks), yfinance front-month futures.

### Update frequency
- Prices + analytics rebuilt daily; CFTC positioning weekly (Friday); export sales weekly (Thursday); USDA supply/demand monthly (post-WASDE, ~12th).

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/datasets` — broad ag price/level series as JSON time series
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/analytics` — real prices, z-scores, percentiles, seasonality, spreads, movers
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/fundamentals` — USDA PSD (+ stocks-to-use), CFTC COT, ESR, NASS
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/summary` — latest levels with % changes
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/movers` — ranked movers across the complex
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/cot` — CFTC managed-money positioning
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/psd/{commodity}` — single-crop supply/demand + stocks-to-use
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/ags/seasonality/{key}` — single-series seasonal factors

## Real Estate Sector Dashboard (robomacro.com/housing)

The full real estate sector — global house prices, the US housing market, mortgages & credit, rents & affordability, construction, commercial property, and REITs.

### What it provides
- **Global Prices (45 countries)**: BIS real residential property price indices (quarterly, 2010=100) — G10, all of Europe incl. CEE, Israel, Türkiye, Asia DM (Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore) and EM (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines), Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia), South Africa, Morocco — with YoY momentum and top/bottom mover rankings.
- **United States**: Case-Shiller (national + 20-city + 12 metros: NY, LA, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, SF, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, DC, Boston, Atlanta), FHFA HPI, median sales price, starts/permits/completions, new & existing home sales, inventory & months supply, homeownership & rental vacancy, NAHB sentiment, pending home sales.
- **Mortgages & Credit**: US 30Y/15Y mortgage rates, weekly MBA application indices (market/purchase/refinance), mortgage delinquency rate, mortgage debt service ratio, bank real-estate loans; UK quoted 2Y/5Y fixed mortgage rates (Bank of England); cross-country household debt/GDP (US, UK, Germany, Canada, Australia — BIS).
- **Rents & Affordability**: CPI rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, NAR Housing Affordability Index.
- **Construction**: US residential construction spending, lumber & wood PPI, construction employment; international: Eurostat construction output YoY for 10 European countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Sweden, Austria, plus Greece quarterly), EC construction confidence balances for 9 countries + EU27, UK construction PMI, housing starts/permits momentum (Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa).
- **Monthly international house-price trackers**: Norway and Indonesia (YoY) and UK Halifax (MoM) — faster than the quarterly BIS indices; plus official Eurostat house-price inflation YoY for Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany, France and Poland.
- **Charts**: every index chart has a Level / YoY% toggle; mixed-scale charts use dual axes.
- **REITs & Commercial**: 15 REIT sector tickers (broad: VNQ/XLRE; industrial: Prologis; office: BXP; retail: Simon/Regency/Realty Income; residential: AvalonBay; self-storage: Public Storage; hospitality: Host Hotels; data centers: Equinix/Digital Realty; towers: American Tower; healthcare: Welltower; gaming: VICI). **REIT Sector Yields** (trailing 12-month dividend yield = cap rate proxy, monthly since 2012): office, industrial, multifamily, retail, self-storage, hospitality, data centers, healthcare — plotted vs. US 10Y Treasury as risk-free baseline. US commercial RE: CoStar CCRSI all-property price index, Fed Z.1 CRE price level, CRE loan delinquency rate, US rental vacancy rate. Note: direct property-type cap rates (CoStar sub-indices, NCREIF, Green Street) are paywalled — REIT dividend yields are the best free proxy.
- **Valuation**: OECD price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios (% of long-run average; 100 = historical norm) for 22 countries: US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Japan, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, New Zealand, South Korea, Ireland, Portugal, Norway, Finland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Colombia. Grouped by region with historical charts.

### Data sources (all free)
- FRED mirrors of BIS property prices (Q*R628BIS family), S&P/Case-Shiller, FHFA, Census, Freddie Mac, NAR, BLS, Federal Reserve Z.1, CoStar CCRSI; Eurostat (construction output, EC confidence surveys, house price indices); Bank of England (quoted mortgage rates); OECD House Prices dataset; market data for REITs and homebuilder equities.

### Update frequency
- Cache rebuilt daily at 12:00 UTC; BIS/OECD indices quarterly, US activity monthly, mortgage rates weekly, REITs/equities daily.

### Machine Access
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/housing/datasets` — all 232 sector series as JSON time series (each tagged with a category)
`GET https://robomacro.com/api/v1/housing/summary` — per-country YoY + movers + per-section latest values with 1-year changes

## Watchlists & Alerts (robomacro.com/account)

Free-account retention features: follow any charted series and get email alerts.

### What it provides
- **Follow buttons** on dashboard charts (China, Commodities, Housing) save series to a per-user watchlist (robomacro.com/account/watchlist).
- **Alerts** (robomacro.com/account/alerts): per-series email alerts — "new data released", "value above X", "value below X" — evaluated every 30 minutes against the live dataset caches, with a 20-hour cooldown.
- Requires a free account (email + password).

## Embeddable Charts

`https://robomacro.com/embed/chart?q=US+CPI+YoY` — iframe-safe single-chart pages with attribution; append `&snippet=1` for the copy-paste embed snippet.

## Contact

- Website: https://robomacro.com
- Bot Gateway: https://robomacro.ai
- Email: notes@robomacro.com
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/RoboMacro
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RoboMacroeconomics
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/robomacro
- Founder LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/apostolouc/
- Open data: https://robomacro.com/open-data
- Methodology: https://robomacro.com/methodology
- Comparisons: https://robomacro.com/compare
- Full machine dump: https://robomacro.com/llms-full.txt