Value Investing Observatory

The Buffett Lens

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

Issue #29 · Weekly Stock Analysis · October 21, 2026

This Week's Analysis

Welcome to this week's edition of The Buffett Lens, where we apply Warren Buffett's time-tested investment principles to identify stocks with durable competitive advantages, strong management, and sensible valuations.

Our quantitative model screens thousands of US-listed stocks against 26 key factors derived from Buffett's shareholder letters, including consistent earning power, high returns on equity with minimal debt, and favorable long-term prospects. The top-scoring stocks receive a detailed analysis written in the folksy, straightforward style that has characterized Berkshire Hathaway's communications for decades.

This week, we present 2 stocks that exemplify the principles of value investing.

#1: Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)

Financial Services $96.12 Buffett Score: 70.2/100 Source: yfinance
Returning Pick: Previously recommended in Issue #5 (2026-04-08), with a Buffett Score of 70.1. The score has improved by 0.1 points to 70.2.
Data Quality Notice: Source=yfinance; only 6 periods available (target: 8+ quarters); missing metric fields=0.

Weekly Price History

Weekly HLOC Price Chart

Revenue & Net Income

Revenue and Net Income Chart

Profitability Metrics

Profitability Chart

Financial Health

Financial Health Chart

Valuation Multiples

Valuation Chart

Buffett-Style Analysis

Imagine a bustling marketplace where every trader, big or small, pays a small fee just to set up their stall and check the prices each day. That is the kind of steady, essential role Nasdaq plays in the financial world, collecting tolls on information and trading activity that never seems to go out of style.

This outfit has a wide moat, much like a castle protected from invaders by both its size and the rules that keep competitors at bay. Its scale in market data and index licensing creates real advantages, and the regulatory barriers around exchanges add another layer of defense. Over the past eight quarters, revenue has climbed steadily to an LTM level of $8.8 billion, with net income reaching $2.0 billion. The latest return on equity sits at 16.4 percent, above the five-year average of 12.2 percent, showing decent earning power on the capital employed. Management quality looks solid too, with insiders holding 11 percent of the shares and institutions owning the rest, suggesting aligned interests rather than short-term gimmicks.

Still, no business is perfect, and I would be foolish to ignore the shortcomings. Debt stands at 0.77 times equity, which is not extreme but does introduce some leverage that could pinch returns if inflation or rates turn unfriendly. The current price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 times and price-to-book of 4.4 times are not bargains by any stretch, so the margin of safety feels thinner than I like. Past growth rates in net worth cannot be counted on forever, and market swings will always affect reported results.

Looking ahead, Nasdaq's position in capital markets and financial technology gives it durable long-term potential, provided it continues to focus on high-return opportunities without chasing every trend. At today's levels, it may suit an investor willing to hold through ups and downs rather than expect quick gains, because sensible purchases reward patience over speculation. For those looking to act on this, the ticker for Nasdaq, Inc. on eToro is $NDAQ.

— Buffett Bot

Trade Nasdaq, Inc. — The ticker for Nasdaq, Inc. on eToro is $NDAQ

eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Capital at risk.

Trade on eToro

Key Metrics Summary

Metric Value Buffett Threshold Status
ROE (Latest) 16.4% >15% PASS
Debt/Equity 0.77x <0.5x WARN
Gross Margin 40.3% >40% PASS
Market Cap $53.7B >$10B PASS
LTM Revenue (Last 4Q) $8.8B Positive, with YoY growth preferred PASS
LTM Net Income (Last 4Q) $2.0B Positive, with YoY growth preferred PASS

#2: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

Technology $174.82 Buffett Score: 70.1/100 Source: yfinance
Returning Pick: Previously recommended in Issue #6 (2026-04-15), with a Buffett Score of 69.0. The score has improved by 1.2 points to 70.1.
Data Quality Notice: Source=yfinance; only 6 periods available (target: 8+ quarters); missing metric fields=0.

Weekly Price History

Weekly HLOC Price Chart

Revenue & Net Income

Revenue and Net Income Chart

Profitability Metrics

Profitability Chart

Financial Health

Financial Health Chart

Valuation Multiples

Valuation Chart

Buffett-Style Analysis

Investing in a company that turns sunlight into electricity reminds me of a farmer who buys land not for a quick crop but for the steady harvests it can deliver year after year, provided the soil stays fertile and the costs stay in check. First Solar fits that picture with its thin-film modules that avoid some of the heavier materials used by rivals, letting it focus on turning out power at competitive costs in sunny regions.

This outfit shows real strength in the numbers that matter most to me. Its return on equity sits at 16.9 percent lately, with a five-year average of 14 percent, all while carrying almost no debt relative to equity at just 0.02 times. That lines up with the simple test of earning a solid rate on capital without leaning on borrowed money or accounting tricks. Revenue has climbed steadily from near zero to over a billion dollars in recent quarters, and net income has followed to around 1.7 billion dollars over the last four quarters. The business also carries a moat score above 60, built on its technology and the way its modules fit into larger power projects, much like a castle protected from invaders by a deep moat that keeps competitors at bay for a while. Management appears aligned too, with insiders holding a slice of the shares and institutions showing strong interest.

Even so, I would be foolish to ignore the shortcomings that come with any business boat. The solar field can swing with government policies and subsidies, and rivals keep pushing new ways to cut costs or boost efficiency. Past growth rates in this space have been high, yet they may not hold as the market matures, and market prices for the stock itself can move sharply for reasons that have little to do with long-term earnings power. A 70 score on my simple checklist leaves room for doubt, especially if technology shifts or trade rules change the economics.

Over time, the push toward cleaner energy sources could give a well-run player like this a sensible place in a portfolio, provided an investor buys at a price that leaves margin for error and holds through the ups and downs. The current valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 13 times and low leverage, suggests the market has not priced in wild optimism, which suits a patient approach focused on intrinsic value rather than short-term swings. For those looking to act on this, the ticker for First Solar, Inc. on eToro is $FSLR.

— Buffett Bot

Trade First Solar, Inc. — The ticker for First Solar, Inc. on eToro is $FSLR

eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Capital at risk.

Trade on eToro

Key Metrics Summary

Metric Value Buffett Threshold Status
ROE (Latest) 16.9% >15% PASS
Debt/Equity 0.02x <0.5x PASS
Gross Margin 57.3% >40% PASS
Market Cap $18.8B >$10B PASS
LTM Revenue (Last 4Q) $5.4B Positive, with YoY growth preferred PASS
LTM Net Income (Last 4Q) $1.7B Positive, with YoY growth preferred PASS

⚠️ Watchlist Alerts: Past Picks Under Review

The following stocks from previous issues have fallen below our Buffett thresholds. We believe in accountability - when our picks deteriorate, you should know.

⚠️ Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) WARNING

Recommended in Issue #4 (2026-03-25) with score 80.1

Current score: 73.0 (-7.1 points)

ROE: 26.4% | Debt/Equity: 0.97x | Gross Margin: 38.6%

Consider reviewing your position.

⚠️ Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) WARNING

Recommended in Issue #3 (2026-03-18) with score 77.6

Current score: 73.0 (-4.6 points)

ROE: 26.4% | Debt/Equity: 0.97x | Gross Margin: 38.6%

Consider reviewing your position.

⚠️ Nucor Corporation (NUE) WARNING

Recommended in Issue #11 (2026-06-10) with score 67.4

Current score: 72.0 (+4.6 points)

ROE: 14.5% | Debt/Equity: 0.31x | Gross Margin: 15.6%

Consider reviewing your position.

⚠️ Xylem Inc. (XYL) WARNING

Recommended in Issue #11 (2026-06-10) with score 67.0

Current score: 73.0 (+6.0 points)

ROE: 9.2% | Debt/Equity: 0.29x | Gross Margin: 39.2%

Consider reviewing your position.

⚠️ Pool Corporation (POOL) WARNING

Recommended in Issue #19 (2026-08-12) with score 59.0

Current score: 65.0 (+6.0 points)

ROE: 31.3% | Debt/Equity: 1.35x | Gross Margin: 29.6%

Consider reviewing your position.

Disclaimer

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The analyses presented are based on publicly available information and quantitative models. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

eToro