The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,413.18 as the VIX rose 0.09 points to 18.67, holding its High regime reading ahead of this week's central bank decisions.
Equities barely moved. The S&P 500 closed essentially flat at 7,413.18, up 0.02%, still 2.58% below its 12-month high. The VIX rose 0.09 points to 18.67, staying in the High regime with the term structure in contango. Reuters noted tech stocks dropping amid a Mideast focus, while MarketWatch reported oil prices sinking as the U.S. and Iran paused attacks. The OVX fell 7.4 points to 60.6 and Bitcoin dropped 2.47% to 63,725. Risk appetite held at 1.21 standard deviations above neutral, the 86th percentile over one year. Options imply a 0.89% expected move, or 66 points, into the 28 July expiry. Historically, the VIX has stayed in the 15-20 band on 83.0% of 1,688 sessions.
Dashboard
Metric
Latest
Session
Context
S&P 500
7,413.18
+1.20
+0.02% on the session
VIX
18.67
+0.09
+0.48% on the session
Regime band
High
—
252d percentile 73%
VIX / VIX3M
0.914
—
above 1 is backwardation
Risk-on / risk-off
+1.21
-0.04
86th percentile, 1y
Expected move
±0.89%
-0.01
to 2026-07-28, options-implied
25-delta skew, 1m
6.11
-0.29
vol points, put over call
Same-day expiry share
71.1%
+1.6
of session option volume
Volatility regime score
36.3
—
Settled · 0-100, higher is more stress
Levels & Expected Move
Expected move
±66 (0.89%)
to 2026-07-28, 1d · ATM IV 17.1%
Peak OI strikes
6,700 / 7,625
put / call, 2026-07-28 · call -5
Assumed dealer gamma
-80,454
indicative · no sign change within the near-dated book
Derived from the S&P 500 option chain at the prior close. The expected move is implied-volatility derived, not read from a straddle price. The gamma figure assumes the dealer side of every contract and is indicative only — that side is not observable in public data.
Today's Focus
A session without a standout move. With the VIX at 18.67, this is where realised volatility sits across horizons.
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Scenarios
The VIX closed at 18.91 in the 15-20 band. Every figure below is the historical frequency for sessions that opened in that band — a record of what happened, not a forecast of what will.
Next session, the VIX…
Frequency
Sample
stays in 15-20
83.0%
n=1,688
moves to 20-30
9.0%
n=184
moves to <15
7.9%
n=161
S&P 500 from here
Median
Worst 5%
Sample
next session
+0.06%
-2.01%
n=2,032
5 sessions
+0.37%
-4.32%
n=2,028
Risk Window
US high-impact releases and major central-bank events, for the sessions ahead.
July 29, 2026
Fed Interest Rate Decision14:00 · United Statescons. 3.75
Fed Press Conference14:30 · United States
RBA Hunter Speech18:40 · Australia
July 30, 2026
BoE Interest Rate Decision07:00 · United Kingdomcons. 3.75
Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month08:30 · United Statescons. 0.2
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate08:30 · United Statescons. 2.1
Personal Income Month-over-Month08:30 · United Statescons. 0.3
HY OAS 2.79 pp (HYG/LQD 0.744); MOVE 70.88 (OVX 60.6, GVZ 24.1) [delayed]; Risk-on/off score 2.209 z (risk-on — equal-weight blend of five cross-asset ratios — small vs large caps, cyclicals vs defensives, high-yield vs investment-grade credit, copper vs gold, and stocks vs bonds — each standardised over a rolling year. Scale is standard deviations from neutral: 0 is neutral, positive is risk-on, negative is risk-off).
Biggest session movers · move in σ — each series against its own 12-month daily rangeBiggest session movers | 10y breakeven: -2.622σ, OVX: -2.047σ, Bitcoin: -0.9087σ, SKEW: -0.1858σ, VSTOXX: -0.1858σ, VXN: 0.1591σ, VXX: -0.1284σ, GVZ: -0.112σ | Range: -2.622σ–0.1591σ | Source: Cboe, FRED, ICERisk-on / risk-off score · σ from neutral · above the zero line is risk-onRisk-on / risk-off score | Latest: 2.209z (2026-07-28) | Range: -0.4415z–2.209z | Source: FRED, Cboe | Trend(5pt): 0.8181,-0.04525,0.6863,0.9626,2.209
Metric
Latest
As of
HY OASHYG/LQD 0.744
2.79 pp
2026-07-24
MOVEdelayedOVX 60.6, GVZ 24.1
70.88
2026-07-17
Risk-on/off scorerisk-on — equal-weight blend of five cross-asset ratios — small vs large caps, cyclicals vs defensives, high-yield vs investment-grade credit, copper vs gold, and stocks vs bonds — each standardised over a rolling year. Scale is standard deviations from neutral: 0 is neutral, positive is risk-on, negative is risk-off
VIX futures COT (net non-commercial z) -0.6822 z (percentile 24%; VXX 22.21; VIX put/call 0.34; Fear & Greed 41); Days since last spike 83 days (VIX 18.91 vs 50d MA 17.38 / 200d MA 18.75; 21d realized vol 10.1 vs VIX 18.9).
Days since last spikeVIX 18.91 vs 50d MA 17.38 / 200d MA 18.75; 21d realized vol 10.1 vs VIX 18.9
83 days
2026-07-28
Volatility Regime Score
Composite
36.3
Settled · 5 components
0-100, the mean of each component's own one-year percentile, oriented so higher is more volatility stress. Each component is ranked against its own past year, so a reading can be calm in absolute terms and still sit high against its own recent range.
Component
Value
Own 1y %ile
Stress %ile
VIX / VIX3Mabove 1 is backwardation — near-term fear bid over longer-dated
0.91
76
76
Variance risk premiumimplied minus realized — a wide premium is the calm state
8.52
81
19(inverted)
VVIX / VIXthe price of convexity — rising means hedging the hedge
5.40
32
32
Risk-on / risk-offcross-asset appetite — positive is risk-on
2.21
100
0(inverted)
Cross-asset vol breadthhow broadly volatility is elevated across asset classes
0.36
54
54
What to watch
A break in the VIX out of the 15-20 band, or an S&P 500 move beyond the 66-point one-day implied range, would alter the quiet tone. The Fed decision and press conference on 29 July are the next scheduled catalysts.
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