VIX Daily

Dashboard

Levels & Expected Move

Derived from the S&P 500 option chain at the prior close. The expected move is implied-volatility derived, not read from a straddle price. The gamma figure assumes the dealer side of every contract and is indicative only — that side is not observable in public data.

Today's Focus

What Moved the Tape — October 16, 2026 session

• Wall Street Anxiety Spreads as AI Rout Meets $110 Oil ShockBloomberg Markets · 2026-10-16
• Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America's biggest economic challengeCNBC Economy · 2026-10-16
• Yields on Treasurys, European Government Bonds Edge HigherWSJ Markets · 2026-10-16
• US equity funds draw renewed inflows as Treasury yields ease - ReutersReuters Business · 2026-10-16
• Warsh Remarks Lift U.S. Nasdaq Futures 0.18%; Asian Stocks Also Rally on Relief (Update) - 아시아경제Google News US · 2026-10-16

Headlines are linked to their publishers; inclusion is not endorsement and reflects coverage during the session window only.

Scenarios

The VIX closed at 18.54 in the 15-20 band. Every figure below is the historical frequency for sessions that opened in that band — a record of what happened, not a forecast of what will.

Risk Window

US high-impact releases and major central-bank events, for the sessions ahead.

S&P 500 options: 2026-10-19, 2026-10-23, 2026-10-30 · VIX futures: 2026-10-21, 2026-11-18

Regime

Regime band High (252d percentile 69%); VIX level 18.54 (z-score +0.17 (252d)); Vol-of-everything composite 0.2761 z (breadth 100% above 1y median) [delayed].

Term Structure

VIX / VIX3M 0.9751 (contango, streak 134d); Short-end stress 23.27 (VIX1D vs VIX 19.99; VIX1D above VIX (stressed)); Short-vol carry 0.02551 (positive short-vol carry).

Vol-of-Vol & Tail

VVIX / VIX 5.498 (VVIX 109.9); SKEW 168.6 (Cboe SKEW index (tail-hedging demand)); VRP 9.786 (VIX minus 21d realized vol (vol points)).

Cross-Asset

HY OAS 3.23 pp (HYG/LQD 0.743) [delayed]; MOVE 101.1 (OVX 50.7, GVZ 22.6); Risk-on/off score 1.528 z (risk-on — equal-weight blend of five cross-asset ratios — small vs large caps, cyclicals vs defensives, high-yield vs investment-grade credit, copper vs gold, and stocks vs bonds — each standardised over a rolling year. Scale is standard deviations from neutral: 0 is neutral, positive is risk-on, negative is risk-off).

Cross-Country

VIX − VSTOXX (US–Europe fear gap) 5.444 (Nikkei-VI/VIX 1.68; India-VIX/VIX 0.80; RVX/VIX 1.25) [proxy].

Positioning

VIX futures COT (net non-commercial z) -1.089 z (percentile 14%; VXX 18.38; VIX put/call 0.32; Fear & Greed 20); Days since last spike 142 days (VIX 18.54 vs 50d MA 15.66 / 200d MA 18.15; 21d realized vol 10.2 vs VIX 18.5).

Volatility Regime Score

0-100, the mean of each component's own one-year percentile, oriented so higher is more volatility stress. Each component is ranked against its own past year, so a reading can be calm in absolute terms and still sit high against its own recent range.