Duration, curve and crowding — the rates book. Charts live in the chartbook.

FI Daily

G7 Fixed Income Desk

Duration, curve and crowding — yields and futures, not ETF total-return lines. Higher COT z means leveraged money is long duration.

Browse by sovereign

US5.00%UK5.31%DE3.53%JP3.00%CA3.94%AU5.32%IT3.99%FR4.00%

Live strip

as of 2026-09-15

US 2Y

4.67%

+2.0bp

US 5Y

4.83%

+3.0bp

US 10Y

5.00%

+3.0bp

US 30Y

5.36%

+2.0bp

SOFR

3.64%

+2.0bp

2s10s

0.33%

+1.0bp

10s30s

0.36%

-1.0bp

Credit

all credit →

US IG OAS

80bp

+0bp

US HY OAS

276bp

+5bp

CCC − BB decompression

924bp

—

NFCIweekly

-0.560

-0.002

Treasury crowding

CFTC TFF · leveraged · 52w z · spark = last year

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Fed Rate Expectations

Now: 3.63%

Oct-20264.01%+39bp

Dec-20264.22%+59bp

Jan-20274.31%+68bp

Mar-20274.49%+86bp

Apr-20274.55%+93bp

Jun-20274.63%+101bp

Hawk / dove

90-day bank composite · τ=30

FED

+0.48Hawkish

2026-09-03 · Christopher Waller: inflation remains meaningfully above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent goal

BOE

+0.30Hawkish

2026-09-04 · Andrew Bailey: The meaning of central bank independence is not just a technical point about monetary policy or financial stability

ECB

+0.23Neutral

2026-09-14 · Peter Kažimír: Peter Kažimír: No surprises

BOJ

+0.48Hawkish

2026-09-10 · Kazuyuki Masu: To complete the normalization of monetary policy in Japan, I am convinced that the Bank needs to raise the policy interest rate further, so that it falls sol…

BOC

+0.12Neutral

2026-09-21 · Tiff Macklem: Economic developments — Governor Tiff Macklem speaks before the Halifax Partnership

RBA

+0.46Hawkish

2026-09-14 · Sarah Hunter: We've obviously got inflation that's still above target, and that's definitely a concern for us

Cross-country 10Y

from the yield-curve grid

UST − Bund 10Y

1.47pp

Gilt − Bund 10Y

1.78pp

UST − JGB 10Y

2.00pp

UST − Gilt 10Y

-0.31pp

BTP − Bund 10Y

0.46pp

OAT − Bund 10Y

0.47pp

Economic Calendar (next 48h)

Forex Factory

09/17, 06:00 AMGBPhighMonetary Policy SummaryF: -P: -

09/17, 06:00 AMGBPhighMPC Official Bank Rate VotesF: 3-0-6P: 3-0-6

09/17, 06:00 AMGBPhighOfficial Bank RateF: 3.75%P: 3.75%

09/17, 07:30 AMCADlowForeign Securities PurchasesF: 28.64BP: 40.83B

09/17, 07:30 AMCADlowIPPI m/mF: 0.0%P: 0.6%

09/17, 07:30 AMCADlowRMPI m/mF: 0.7%P: -2.2%

09/17, 07:30 AMUSDmediumPhilly Fed Manufacturing IndexF: 31.3P: 47.4

09/17, 07:30 AMUSDmediumUnemployment ClaimsF: 207KP: 206K

09/17, 07:30 AMUSDlowBuilding PermitsF: 1.40MP: 1.44M

09/17, 07:30 AMUSDlowHousing StartsF: 1.32MP: 1.24M

09/17, 09:00 AMUSDlowPending Home Sales m/mF: -0.2%P: -2.3%

09/17, 09:30 AMAUDlowCB Leading Index m/mF: -P: 0.3%

09/17, 09:30 AMUSDlowNatural Gas StorageF: 49BP: 40B

09/17, 05:45 PMNZDlowFPI m/mF: -P: 0.1%

09/17, 05:45 PMNZDlowTrade BalanceF: -1775MP: -1949M

09/17, 06:01 PMGBPlowGfK Consumer ConfidenceF: -16P: -14

09/17, 06:30 PMAUDmediumRBA Gov Bullock SpeaksF: -P: -

09/17, 06:30 PMJPYlowNational Core CPI y/yF: 1.8%P: 1.8%

09/17, 09:30 PMJPYhighBOJ Policy RateF: <1.25%P: <1.00%

09/17, 09:30 PMJPYhighMonetary Policy StatementF: -P: -

09/18, 12:30 AMJPYhighBOJ Press ConferenceF: -P: -

09/18, 01:00 AMEURlowGerman PPI m/mF: 0.6%P: 1.1%

09/18, 01:00 AMGBPmediumRetail Sales m/mF: -0.2%P: -0.5%

09/18, 01:02 AMCNYlowForeign Direct Investment ytd/yF: -P: -6.2%

09/18, 03:00 AMEURlowCurrent AccountF: 30.7BP: 35.1B

09/18, 05:15 AMEURlowECOFIN MeetingsF: -P: -

09/18, 05:15 AMEURlowEurogroup MeetingsF: -P: -

09/18, 05:30 AMEURmediumECB President Lagarde SpeaksF: -P: -

09/18, 08:15 AMUSDlowCapacity Utilization RateF: 76.4%P: 76.3%

09/18, 08:15 AMUSDlowIndustrial Production m/mF: 0.3%P: 0.2%

Central Bank Watch

next meetings · blackouts · intervention alerts

Ccy	Bank	Rate	Next meeting	Flags	Preview
JPY	Bank of Japan	1.00%	18-Sep-2026(1d)	blackout	18-Sep preview →
CHF	Swiss National Bank	0.00%	24-Sep-2026(7d)	blackout	—
AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia	4.35%	29-Sep-2026(12d)		11-Aug →
USD	Federal Reserve (FOMC)	3.75%	28-Oct-2026(41d)		16-Sep →
CAD	Bank of Canada	2.25%	28-Oct-2026(41d)		15-Jul →
NZD	Reserve Bank of New Zealand	2.75%	28-Oct-2026(41d)		08-Jul →
EUR	European Central Bank	2.25%	29-Oct-2026(42d)		10-Sep →
GBP	Bank of England (MPC)	3.75%	17-Sep-2026(today)	blackout	17-Sep preview →

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