Duration, curve, Factors and crowding — the rates book. Charts live in the chartbook.

Desk Positioning Curve Factors Credit Quant Lab

G7 Fixed Income Desk

Duration, curve and crowding — yields and futures, not ETF total-return lines. Higher COT z means leveraged money is long duration.

Browse by sovereign

US4.98%UK5.29%DE3.32%JP2.77%CA3.80%AU5.15%IT3.99%FR4.48%

Live strip

as of 2026-10-29

US 2Y

4.61%

-6.0bp

US 5Y

4.78%

-7.0bp

US 10Y

4.98%

-7.0bp

US 30Y

5.32%

-5.0bp

SOFR

3.94%

+0.0bp

2s10s

0.37%

-1.0bp

10s30s

0.34%

+2.0bp

Factors

session 2026-10-30go to Factors tab→

Residuals and Fiscal driving the last 2 days.

20-session stack

Attributed basis point moves

Day-on-day 10-year change, last 30 sessions. A +4 bp print is four cubes, coloured by the factor that added those basis points. Residual is what the toggled set did not move.

Monetary policyFed credibilityFiscal riskCrowding outResidual

2026-10-30 -4 bp (Fiscal risk -1 · Residual -3)

Last two 10-year sessions: 10-29 -7 bp (Fiscal risk -1 · Residual -6) · 10-30 -4 bp (Fiscal risk -1 · Residual -3). A cube is 1 bp of that day’s net move, coloured by the factor that added it. Residual is unexplained by the toggled set.

Credit

all credit →

US IG OAS

89bp

+3bp

US HY OAS

326bp

+12bp

CCC − BB decompression

1131bp

—

NFCIweekly

-0.487

+0.007

Treasury crowdingClick me!

CFTC TFF · leveraged · 52w z · spark = last year

Loading…

Fed Rate Expectations

Now: 3.88%

Dec-20264.08%+20bp

Jan-20274.15%+27bp

Mar-20274.30%+42bp

Apr-20274.36%+48bp

Jun-20274.45%+57bp

Jul-20274.47%+59bp

Hawk / dove

90-day bank composite · τ=30hawk/Dove tab →

FED

+0.51Hawkish

2026-10-30 · Alberto Musalem: I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon.

BOE

+0.32Hawkish

2026-10-20 · Megan Greene: In my view, both remain above levels consistent with an inflation target of 2% and suggest there may be less labour market slack than we thought.

ECB

+0.24Neutral

2026-10-29 · Christine Lagarde: President Lagarde's successor will be appointed by the European Council following the nomination process outlined in Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functio…

BOJ

+0.34Hawkish

2026-10-15 · Junko Koeda: Given that there have been considerable upside risks to prices in addition to continued accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly…

BOC

+0.24Neutral

2026-10-28 · Tiff Macklem: With the outlook for inflation substantially higher and the economy showing resilience, an increase in the policy rate is needed to reduce the risk that elev…

RBA

+0.44Hawkish

2026-10-28 · Michele Bullock: Since the Committee’s previous hearing with the RBA in June, the Monetary Policy Board has increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points. It did this wit…

Cross-country 10Y

from the yield-curve grid

UST − Bund 10Y

1.66pp

Gilt − Bund 10Y

1.97pp

UST − JGB 10Y

2.21pp

10Y Gilt − UST

0.31pp

BTP − Bund 10Y

0.67pp

OAT − Bund 10Y

1.16pp

Economic Calendar (next 48h)

Forex Factory

No upcoming events in the next 48h.

Central Bank Watch

next meetings · blackouts · intervention alerts

Ccy	Bank	Rate	Next meeting	Flags	Preview
AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia	4.60%	03-Nov-2026(2d)	blackout	29-Sep →
GBP	Bank of England (MPC)	3.75%	05-Nov-2026(4d)	blackout	17-Sep →
USD	Federal Reserve (FOMC)	4.00%	09-Dec-2026(38d)		28-Oct →
CAD	Bank of Canada	2.25%	09-Dec-2026(38d)		28-Oct →
NZD	Reserve Bank of New Zealand	2.75%	09-Dec-2026(38d)		28-Oct →
CHF	Swiss National Bank	0.00%	10-Dec-2026(39d)		24-Sep →
EUR	European Central Bank	2.50%	17-Dec-2026(46d)		29-Oct →
JPY	Bank of Japan	1.25%	18-Dec-2026(47d)		30-Oct →

Related live pages: Credit · Taylor · MOVE · Hawk/dove · Chartbook