| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,198.60 | +0.25% |
| NZX 50 | 13,722.97 | +0.56% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.67% |
| NZD/USD | 0.60 | -0.41% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.18 | -0.31% |
| BHP | 58.41 | +1.14% |
| Gold | 5,247.90 | +1.38% |
| Brent Crude | 72.87 | +3.00% |
| Bitcoin | 65,335.39 | -2.48% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.74% | +0.45% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | -0.70 | 0.90 | -0.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 64.10 | - | 59.20 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australian construction work done disappointed, declining 0.1% quarter-over-quarter against a consensus of 0.9%, underscoring sector weakness from high interest rates and supply issues. Inflation data showed monthly rate at 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, with year-over-year holding at 3.8% versus expectations of 3.7%. Core inflation via RBA trimmed mean CPI met the 0.3% month-over-month consensus, but year-over-year rose to 3.4% from 3.3%.In New Zealand, ANZ Business Confidence eased to 59.2 from 64.1, pointing to worries over exports and global instability. The ASX 200 climbed 0.25% to 9,198.60, supported by miners like BHP up 1.14% to 58.41. NZX 50 gained 0.56% to 13,722.97.Currencies softened: AUD/USD fell 0.67% to 0.71, NZD/USD dropped 0.41% to 0.60, and AUD/NZD declined 0.31% to 1.18, driven by a firm USD amid geopolitical tensions. Australia's 10-year government yield increased 0.45% to 4.74%, reflecting inflation concerns.
No significant economic releases are slated for Australia or New Zealand today, shifting focus to global factors like Middle East conflicts and their effects on oil and trade. Currency traders may eye AUD and NZD volatility following recent depreciation against the USD. Australian markets could track commodity prices, especially iron ore linked to China, while New Zealand watches dairy exports.US developments, including Fed minutes and GDP data, may influence sentiment. Absent local catalysts, expect consolidation after yesterday's inflation figures, with potential for unscheduled central bank comments on policy.
Australia's construction slowdown highlights broader economic drags from high rates, potentially impacting GDP via reduced employment and spending in housing-related areas. Persistent inflation at 3.8% YoY suggests challenges in reaching the RBA's 2-3% target, amplified by commodity ties to global demand. New Zealand faces export vulnerabilities, with softening business confidence at 59.2 signaling caution on investment amid high costs and tourism recovery hurdles.(cont...)
Both economies rely heavily on China for iron ore and dairy, making them sensitive to Asian demand shifts and supply chain disruptions from geopolitical events.
US-Israel strikes on Iran, killing leaders including the supreme leader, escalated tensions, with Trump noting rapid progress and openness to talks, though death tolls rise across the Middle East. This boosted USD safe-haven demand, pressuring AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower. Oil surged, Brent up 3.00% to 72.87, aiding Australian exporters but heightening New Zealand's import inflation risks.Gold rose 1.38% to 5,247.90 as a hedge, while Bitcoin dropped 2.48% to 65,335.39 in risk-off moves. Travel warnings for Australians due to Iran conflict, including potential Europe route disruptions, could hit New Zealand tourism. Dollar strength persists as markets await Fed minutes and US GDP, with yields influencing ANZ bonds.Netanyahu's actions face little domestic criticism in Israel, but global fallout includes evacuation plans for Britons in the region. These events underscore risks to ANZ trade routes and commodity stability, with China's demand key for mitigation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its cash rate to the current 3.60% amid sticky inflation, as seen in yesterday's 3.8% YoY rate and 3.4% trimmed mean CPI. Deputy governor Andrew Hauser cited shifts in three key economic facts driving the increase, stressing inflation control without faulting government spending. News suggests this hike may be isolated, but further rises loom if inflation persists.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sees its short-term rate at 4.33% after a 9.60% drop, potentially indicating easing room amid cooling confidence. Both target 2-3% inflation, but RBA faces housing and commodity pressures, while RBNZ monitors exports and global risks. Divergences may widen if US data prompts Fed moves, affecting ANZ policy paths.Upcoming employment and housing indicators will shape decisions, with RBA likely holding steady longer.