| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,940.30 | +0.44% |
| NZX 50 | 13,617.89 | +0.28% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | -0.38% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.21% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | +0.09% |
| BHP | 54.97 | -1.27% |
| Gold | 5,087.90 | -0.63% |
| Brent Crude | 84.79 | +4.16% |
| Bitcoin | 71,206.74 | -2.07% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.74% | +0.45% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hunter Speech | - | - | - |
| RBA Bullock Speech | - | - | - |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -14.90 | 5.50 | -7.20 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -12.30 | - | -1.50 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Trade Balance | 3,373m | 3,900m | 2,631m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hauser Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
| Business NZ PMI | 55.20 | - | 17:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-06) | |||
| RBA Hauser Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
Australian building permits fell unexpectedly by 7.2% MoM in preliminary data, missing the 5.5% consensus and highlighting ongoing weakness in the housing sector amid high interest rates. The Ai Group Industry Index for Australia improved sharply to -1.5 from -12.3, indicating a rebound in manufacturing activity driven by export demand. Australia's GDP growth surprised positively at 0.8% QoQ, beating the 0.6% forecast, with strong contributions from mining exports and household spending, while YoY growth hit 2.6% against 2.2% expected.The trade balance for Australia narrowed to A$2.631bn, below the A$3.9bn consensus and prior A$3.373bn, as imports surged on energy needs despite robust commodity shipments to China. No major data releases occurred for New Zealand, but the NZX 50 advanced 0.28% to 13,617.89, supported by dairy sector stability. AUD/USD declined 0.38% to 0.70, reflecting the trade miss, while NZD/USD edged up 0.21% to 0.59 amid broader USD weakness.ASX 200 climbed 0.44% to 8,940.30, led by mining gains, though BHP fell 1.27% to 54.97 on iron ore volatility.
Attention turns to the RBA's Hauser speech scheduled for March 6 at 08:30 ET, where insights on inflation and housing could influence rate expectations. New Zealand's Business NZ PMI is due on March 12 at 17:30 ET, providing a gauge of manufacturing health amid dairy export challenges. No immediate data releases are set for today, allowing markets to digest yesterday's GDP and trade figures.The RBA speech may address recent GDP strength and its implications for monetary policy divergence with the RBNZ. Traders will monitor any comments on China linkages, given Australia's export reliance. Overall, a quiet day ahead unless global events spur volatility in AUD or NZD crosses.
Broader themes in ANZ highlight Australia's commodity-driven resilience, with iron ore and LNG exports benefiting from China's decarbonization push in its new Five-Year Plan. New Zealand faces headwinds from tourism recovery lags and dairy price fluctuations, though construction activity supports growth. Housing markets remain critical, with Australian affordability strains and New Zealand's brain drain exacerbating labor shortages.
China's 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes tech, energy, and decarbonization, boosting demand prospects for Australian iron ore and coal, which supported AUD rallies earlier in the week. Geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions, have softened NZD/USD below 0.5950, as safe-haven flows favor the USD. Global risk sentiment improved with a broad Dollar retreat, allowing NZD/USD to surge 0.73% mid-week before pulling back.Brent crude's 4.16% rise to 84.79 aids Australia's energy exports but raises import costs for both ANZ economies. Bitcoin's 2.07% drop to 71,206.74 reflects crypto volatility, minimally impacting ANZ markets. Gold's 0.63% decline to 5,087.90 tempers safe-haven demand, though it remains elevated amid inflation concerns.AUD/USD traded around 0.7050 post-GDP, holding below three-year highs despite USD weakness. These dynamics underscore China's growth as the key external driver for ANZ, with potential EU-Australia trade deal progress on luxury car tax adding tailwinds.
The RBA maintained its cash rate at 3.60%, with recent speeches from Hunter and Bullock emphasizing vigilance on inflation amid strong GDP data. RBNZ has shown historical aggressiveness, but no new decisions emerged, with focus on employment and housing linkages. Divergence persists, as RBA faces hotter growth while RBNZ grapples with softer Kiwi economy.Upcoming Hauser speech may clarify RBA's stance on rate paths, potentially signaling holds given resilient exports. RBNZ monitors inflation reports closely, with dairy weakness possibly prompting dovish tilts. Both central banks target inflation independently, but China's outlook influences their commodity-sensitive frameworks.No vote splits were detailed in recent communications, with the committees voting to hold rates steady.