ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Hikes, NZ GDP Misses
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,497.80 | -1.65% |
| NZX 50 | 13,051.61 | -1.98% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.33% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.28% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.49% |
| BHP | 48.44 | -3.29% |
| Gold | 4,638.70 | -5.14% |
| Brent Crude | 102.24 | -4.79% |
| Bitcoin | 70,280.05 | -1.36% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.77% | +0.42% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3.85 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| RBA Press Conference | - | - | - |
| Current Account Balance | -8,360m | -4,750m | -5,980m |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 1.10 | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| Employment Change | 17,800 | 20,300 | 48,900 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 54,500 | - | -30,500 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.30 |
Australia Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | AU Short-Term Rate (%): 3.83 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.1–4.35 | Trend(6pt): 0.1,0.73,4.1,4.35,3.6,3.83
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -519m | -740m | 13:45 |
- RBA raised rates to 4.1% amid inflation pressures, but markets sold off on weak NZ GDP and AU jobs data.
- ASX 200 and NZX 50 fell sharply, with AUD/USD weaker while NZD/USD edged up.
- Geopolitical risks from Iran war weigh on ANZ outlook, boosting commodity volatility.
Yesterday's Recap
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its cash rate to 4.1% from 3.85% on March 16, meeting consensus expectations, followed by a press conference emphasizing inflation control amid household resilience. New Zealand's current account balance for the quarter came in at -5.98 billion NZD on March 17, wider than the consensus of -4.75 billion NZD but improved from the previous -8.36 billion NZD. On March 18, New Zealand's GDP growth disappointed with a quarter-over-quarter rise of 0.2% versus consensus 0.4% and previous 0.9%, while year-over-year growth was 1.3% against expectations of 1.7% and prior 1.1%.
Australia's employment change surged to 48,900 jobs in February, beating consensus of 20,300 and previous 17,800, though full-time employment fell by 30,500 after a prior gain of 54,500. The Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, missing consensus hold at 4.1%, signaling labor market softening. Equity markets reacted negatively, with the ASX 200 dropping 1.65% to 8,497.80 and NZX 50 falling 1.98% to 13,051.61, driven by commodity weakness including BHP shares down 3.29% to 48.44.
Currencies were mixed: AUD/USD slipped 0.33% to 0.71, NZD/USD rose 0.28% to 0.59, and AUD/NZD climbed 0.49% to 1.21, reflecting relative NZ dollar strength despite GDP miss.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand's trade balance for February is due at 13:45 ET on March 19, with consensus expecting a deficit of -740 million NZD after January's -519 million NZD, potentially highlighting export challenges in dairy and tourism sectors amid global demand slowdowns. No major Australian data releases are scheduled, allowing markets to digest yesterday's employment figures and RBA hike implications. Attention may shift to any follow-up commentary from RBA officials on household spending resilience despite rate pressures.
Broader ANZ focus will include monitoring commodity prices, given Australia's iron ore and LNG exposure, as Brent crude fell 4.79% to 102.24. With no events tomorrow, traders eye global cues like U.S. Fed signals for directional trades in AUD and NZD.
Other Economic Notes
Australian households remain financially strong despite rate hikes and petrol price pain, as per RBA assessments, though charts reveal over-reliance on mining exports propping up a weakening economy. (cont...)
