ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU CPI Softens, PMIs Slump
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,534.30 | +1.85% |
| NZX 50 | 12,929.30 | +1.79% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69 | -0.82% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | -0.75% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | +0.02% |
| BHP | 50.13 | +3.33% |
| Gold | 4,514.00 | +2.61% |
| Brent Crude | 98.00 | -6.21% |
| Bitcoin | 70,761.73 | +0.35% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.77% | +0.42% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51 | - | 50.10 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 52.80 | - | 46.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| RBA Jones Speech | - | - | - |
Australia Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 4.075 (2026-01-01) | Range: 3.431–5.482 | Trend(6pt): 5.482,3.607,3.683,4.084,4.092,4.075
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Kent Speech | - | - | 14:15 |
- Australian February inflation cooled to 3.7% YoY headline and 3.3% trimmed mean, undershooting consensus and easing RBA pressure amid hawkish tones.
- Flash PMIs weakened, with manufacturing at 50.1 and services at 46.6, pointing to sector contraction and softer domestic demand.
- Equities rose on commodity strength, but AUD and NZD fell versus USD, hit by oil volatility and global risks.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian flash PMIs showed manufacturing dipping to 50.1 from 51, just above expansion, while services PMI dropped sharply to 46.6 from 52.8, signaling contraction and heightening worries over demand. February inflation data revealed a flat 0.0% MoM versus 0% consensus, with YoY at 3.7% from 3.8%, below 3.8% expected. RBA trimmed mean CPI eased to 0.2% MoM from 0.3% and 3.3% YoY from 3.4%, both softer than anticipated, potentially tempering rate hike urgency.
RBA Assistant Governor Jones spoke on inflation vigilance amid uncertainties, without policy signals. No New Zealand data released, but markets followed Australian trends. Equities advanced, with ASX 200 up 1.85% to 8,534.30, led by miners including BHP +3.33% to 50.13.
NZX 50 gained 1.79% to 12,929.30. Currencies weakened: AUD/USD -0.82% to 0.69, NZD/USD -0.75% to 0.58, AUD/NZD +0.02% to 1.20. Commodities mixed: gold +2.61% to 4,514.00, Brent -6.21% to 98.00, Bitcoin +0.35% to 70,761.73.
Bonds firmed slightly, with Australia 10Y yield +0.42% to 4.77%, NZ short-term rate -9.60% to 4.33%.
The Day Ahead
Focus shifts to RBA Assistant Governor Kent's speech at 14:15 ET, offering potential clues on responses to softer inflation and PMIs, which may sway AUD. No other Australian data due, with markets processing recent releases and global factors. New Zealand's calendar is empty, emphasizing trans-Tasman ties like AUD/NZD at 1.20.
Tomorrow has no ANZ events, turning attention to Asia-Pacific developments, such as China updates. Watch for any impromptu RBNZ comments, though none anticipated. Volatility could remain low unless Kent surprises on rates.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's housing sector stays under scrutiny, with cooling inflation possibly alleviating mortgage strains, yet elevated rates curb building amid commodity swings from China. New Zealand's dairy industry gains from steady prices, but tourism suffers from oil-driven travel cost hikes. Trade evolves with the EU-Australia pact boosting exports via tariff cuts, though meat quota concerns disadvantage farmers compared to New Zealand.
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