ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ANZ Confidence Dives, Permits Soar
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,671.80 | +2.24% |
| NZX 50 | 12,825.87 | -0.67% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69 | +1.14% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | +0.61% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | +0.54% |
| BHP | 52.76 | +4.70% |
| Gold | 4,788.00 | +3.02% |
| Brent Crude | 100.82 | -14.81% |
| Bitcoin | 68,127.23 | -0.16% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.77% | +0.42% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | 59.20 | - | 32.50 |
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -1.50 | - | -23.60 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -7.20 | 6.50 | 29.70 |
AU Policy Rate History | Type: macro_line | AU Cash Rate %: 3.83 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.1–4.35 | Trend(6pt): 0.1,1.28,4.1,4.35,3.6,3.83
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 2,631m | 2,600m | 16:30 |
- NZ business confidence plummeted to 32.5, signaling economic pessimism amid global tensions.
- Australian building permits jumped 29.7% MoM, beating expectations and reversing prior decline.
- ASX 200 surged 2.24% on commodities; NZX 50 dipped 0.67% on yields.
Yesterday's Recap
New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence index fell sharply to 32.5 in March from 59.2 previously, indicating growing pessimism among businesses due to geopolitical risks and weakening exports. Australia's RBA released meeting minutes, underscoring persistent inflation concerns and housing market influences without hinting at near-term rate adjustments. The Ai Group Industry Index dropped to -23.6 from -1.5 prior, reflecting manufacturing contraction amid supply disruptions from global events.
Australian preliminary building permits rose 29.7% month-over-month in February, surpassing the 6.5% consensus and offsetting the previous -7.2% drop, fueled by residential sector demand. Equity markets showed divergence: the ASX 200 advanced 2.24% to 8,671.80, led by mining gains including BHP up 4.70% to 52.76 on commodity strength, while the NZX 50 declined 0.67% to 12,825.87 pressured by higher yields. Currencies appreciated versus the USD, with AUD/USD rising 1.14% to 0.69 and NZD/USD up 0.61% to 0.58, as AUD/NZD increased 0.54% to 1.20.
Bond yields mostly firmed, with Australia's 10-year government yield up 0.42% to 4.77%, while New Zealand's short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33% amid policy outlooks.
The Day Ahead
Australia's February trade balance is set for release at 16:30 ET, with consensus at A$2.6 billion, marginally below the prior A$2.631 billion, amid fluctuations in commodity exports tied to China demand and oil market volatility. This data could sway AUD sentiment, particularly if iron ore and LNG figures demonstrate resilience despite global disruptions. No significant New Zealand releases are on tap, shifting attention to Australian metrics and potential global risk spillovers.
Markets may eye ASX mining performance, with BHP serving as a trade indicator. ANZ calendars are otherwise quiet, but follow-up on housing data could build on yesterday's permits momentum. Watch the AUD/NZD pair for signs of economic divergence ahead of any RBNZ updates.
Other Economic Notes
ANZ economies face exposure to China's slowdown, with Australian iron ore and New Zealand dairy exports vulnerable to Beijing's policies. Housing sectors diverge, as robust Australian permits contrast with New Zealand's building slowdown linked to migration shifts. Inflation remains elevated from global oil disruptions, curbing consumer activity in both nations.
