AUD Strengthens on Commodity Surge

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
ASX 200	8,960.60	-0.14%
NZX 50	13,020.18	-1.22%
AUD/USD	0.71	+0.31%
NZD/USD	0.59	+0.34%
AUD/NZD	1.21	-0.01%
BHP	53.98	-1.06%
Gold	4,768.50	+0.14%
Brent Crude	98.22	+3.17%
Bitcoin	73,384.99	+3.72%
Australia 10Y Govt Yield	4.77%	+0.42%
NZ Short-term Rate	4.33%	-9.60%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
RBA Hauser Speech	-	-	18:15
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	1.20	-	20:30
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	91.60	-	20:30
NAB Business Confidence Index	-1	-	21:30
RBA Hauser Speech	-	-	16:00
Employment Change	48,900	20,000	21:30
Full-Time Employment Change	-30,500	-	21:30
Headline Unemployment Rate	4.30	4.30	21:30
RBA Hunter Speech	-	-	14:30
Trade Balance	-257m	-	18:45

AUD/USD rises 0.31% to 0.71 on Brent crude gains and RBA hike expectations, with NZD/USD up 0.34% to 0.59.
ASX 200 slips 0.14% to 8,960.60 amid mining weakness, while NZX 50 falls 1.22% to 13,020.18 on risk aversion.
RBA speeches and confidence indicators ahead, with jobs data eyed for slowdown signals.

Yesterday's Recap

Australian equities edged lower yesterday, with the ASX 200 closing at 8,960.60 after a 0.14% decline, pressured by mining sector weakness including BHP's 1.06% drop to 53.98 amid commodity volatility. New Zealand's NZX 50 fell more notably by 1.22% to 13,020.18, influenced by global risk-off sentiment and sector-specific pressures. The Australian dollar gained 0.31% to 0.71 against the USD, supported by Brent crude's 3.17% rise to 98.22 and gold's 0.14% increase to 4,768.50.

The New Zealand dollar advanced 0.34% to 0.59 versus the USD, while the AUD/NZD cross dipped 0.01% to 1.21, underscoring Australia's relative strength. No significant economic releases occurred in Australia or New Zealand, shifting focus to global developments such as Bitcoin's 3.72% climb to 73,384.99. Australian 10-year government yields increased 0.42% to 4.77%, reflecting inflation worries, whereas New Zealand's short-term rate dropped 9.60% to 4.33%, suggesting easing prospects.

Commodity-driven dynamics prevailed, benefiting Australia's export-oriented economy from oil advances despite implied softness in other resources.

The Day Ahead

Key Australian data releases are scheduled today, beginning with an RBA Hauser speech at 18:15 ET, offering potential guidance on monetary policy amid hike discussions. Westpac Consumer Confidence follows at 20:30 ET, with prior change at 1.2% and index at 91.6, highlighting household sentiment. At 21:30 ET, the NAB Business Confidence Index, previously at -1, will reflect business views on economic conditions.

Tomorrow features another RBA Hauser speech at 16:00 ET. Mid-week, Australia's employment figures on April 15 at 21:30 ET are pivotal, with consensus expecting 20,000 job additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%. An RBA Hunter speech is set for April 16 at 14:30 ET.

New Zealand's trade balance arrives on April 19 at 18:45 ET, after a previous -257 million reading, followed by quarterly inflation on April 20 at 18:45 ET, prior at 0.6%.

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Other Economic Notes

Australia's property market shows resilience with price gains in many areas despite RBA rate impacts, bolstered by commodity exports to China. New Zealand's economy gains from dairy demand, though tourism and building sectors contend with inflation and slowdown risks. Fiscal positions in Australia hinge on mining revenues, while New Zealand benefits from trade balances, both sensitive to China's economic trajectory.

Global Macro News

Commodity prices surged, with Brent crude up 3.17% to 98.22, enhancing Australia's export income given its reliance on energy and metals trade with China, which comprises around 30% of exports. USD softness, evident in AUD/USD and NZD/USD advances, arises from inflation data easing Fed hike expectations, fostering risk appetite that aids ANZ currencies. Geopolitical risks, such as focus on Hormuz, heighten fuel and inflation concerns potentially harming Australia's economy.

News highlights AUD poised for breakouts on RBA hikes and commodity booms, reaching 3-year highs, though warnings of economic collapse in 2026 add caution. China's recovery signals are crucial for ANZ exporters, with property issues posing risks to iron ore but balanced by broader commodity strength. Japanese developments, including BoJ views on avoiding stagflation, contribute to currency fluctuations affecting ANZ crosses.

Canadian dollar weakness on oil easing contrasts with ANZ gains, underscoring varied commodity effects. Pound resilience against USD supports global sentiment, benefiting New Zealand tourism. These elements suggest ANZ upside from policy tightening but vulnerability to instability.

ANZ Central Banks Watch

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate at 3.83%, with recent commentary emphasizing potential hikes as the AUD hits 3-year highs on commodity strength, though split decisions on rates have prompted demands for greater transparency. RBA officials will review incoming jobs data, with employment change consensus at 20,000 and unemployment at 4.3%, which may shape policy amid persistent inflation and housing dynamics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shows policy divergence, with no immediate changes indicated, supported by dairy sector performance aiding the NZD.

Both target 2-3% inflation, but Australia's exposure to China may drive tighter measures if inflation lingers. RBNZ prioritizes employment and housing, with April 20 inflation data possibly influencing moves. Rate path differences persist, with RBA leaning toward hikes and RBNZ potentially steadier, amid commodity and USD influences.

Upcoming Hauser and Hunter speeches will be monitored for policy signals.

ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)