ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Jobs Steady, RBA Warns on Stagflation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,978.70 | +0.09% |
| NZX 50 | 13,066.06 | -0.08% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.45% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.21% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | +0.68% |
| BHP | 55.60 | -0.92% |
| Gold | 4,814.60 | +0.30% |
| Brent Crude | 98.11 | +3.35% |
| Bitcoin | 75,375.63 | +0.76% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.90% | +2.98% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hauser Speech | - | - | - |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 1.20 | - | -12.50 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 91.60 | - | 80.10 |
| NAB Business Confidence Index | 0 | - | -29 |
| RBA Hauser Speech | - | - | - |
| Employment Change | 49,600 | 20,000 | 17,900 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -30,500 | - | 52,500 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.30 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| RBA Hunter Speech | - | - | - |
Australia 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 4.9 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.135–4.9 | Trend(6pt): 1.66,3.429,4.211,4.544,4.75,4.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -257m | - | 14:45 |
- Australian unemployment held at 4.3% with softer job growth, fueling RBA stagflation concerns amid plunging consumer and business confidence.
- AUD strengthened to four-year highs on rate hike bets, while ASX 200 edged up modestly despite mixed global cues.
- RBA speeches highlighted persistent inflation risks, with markets pricing in a potential May hike.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian consumer confidence plunged sharply, with the Westpac index dropping to 80.1 from 91.6 prior, reflecting a -12.5% change amid economic uncertainties. NAB business confidence in Australia cratered to -29 from 0, signaling deepening pessimism among firms. Australia's March employment data showed a 17,900 job gain, missing the 20,000 consensus but supported by a robust 52,500 full-time increase, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% as expected.
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser delivered two speeches emphasizing inflation vigilance, while Assistant Governor Hunter's address reinforced hawkish tones on stagflation risks. New Zealand saw no major data releases, but the NZX 50 dipped -0.08% to 13,066.06, contrasting with the ASX 200's slight +0.09% gain to 8,978.70. AUD/USD rose +0.45% to 0.72 on rate expectations, while NZD/USD fell -0.21% to 0.59, pushing AUD/NZD up +0.68% to 1.22.
BHP shares declined -0.92% to 55.60, pressured by commodity volatility despite Brent crude's +3.35% surge to 98.11.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand's trade balance data for March is due at 14:45 ET, with expectations of a modest improvement from the prior -257 million deficit amid dairy export resilience. No major Australian releases are scheduled, allowing markets to digest recent jobs figures and RBA rhetoric. Attention will turn to any flow-through from global commodity moves, particularly iron ore and LNG, given Australia's export reliance.
RBNZ officials may provide informal commentary on inflation trends, though no formal events are listed. Broader ANZ focus shifts to housing market indicators, with potential updates on building approvals influencing sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's housing market remains a key vulnerability, with high mortgage rates curbing demand and linking closely to RBA policy transmission. New Zealand's dairy-driven economy faces headwinds from global price fluctuations, though recent GDT auction upticks offer some relief. Both nations' trade surpluses hinge on China's growth trajectory, underscoring the need for diversified export strategies amid geopolitical tensions.
