ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AUD Holds Firm on RBA Hawkishness
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,946.90 | -0.09% |
| NZX 50 | 12,905.67 | -1.23% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.42% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.44% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | -0.00% |
| BHP | 55.92 | +0.00% |
| Gold | 4,879.60 | +1.97% |
| Brent Crude | 90.38 | -9.07% |
| Bitcoin | 74,981.11 | -0.98% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.90% | +2.98% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | AU 10Y Govt Yield: 4.9 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.135–4.9 | Trend(6pt): 1.66,3.429,4.211,4.544,4.75,4.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -257m | 175m | 18:45 |
| Inflation Rate Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.60 | 0.80 | 18:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 49.80 | - | 19:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 46.30 | - | 19:00 |
- Australian Dollar holds firm amid risk rally and hawkish RBA bets, despite global tensions.
- Equity markets weaken: ASX 200 edges down, NZX 50 drops sharply on economic concerns.
- Commodities mixed with gold surging and Brent crude falling, affecting ANZ trade dynamics.
Yesterday's Recap
With no major data releases on April 18, Australian and New Zealand markets reacted to global risk sentiment and commodity movements. The ASX 200 closed at 8,946.90, down 0.09%, showing caution in resource sectors despite BHP holding steady at 55.92 with no change. The NZX 50 fell 1.23% to 12,905.67, weighed by export-sensitive stocks amid softening demand.
AUD/USD declined 0.42% to 0.71, and NZD/USD dropped 0.44% to 0.59, leaving AUD/NZD unchanged at 1.22. Gold rose 1.97% to 4,879.60, supporting mining sentiment, but Brent crude plunged 9.07% to 90.38, exposing energy import risks for both economies. Bitcoin decreased 0.98% to 74,981.11, reflecting crypto volatility.
Australia's 10Y government yield increased 2.98% to 4.90%, indicating inflation expectations, while New Zealand's short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand's March trade balance releases at 18:45 ET on April 19, with consensus for a 175 million NZD surplus following February's -257 million deficit, which could bolster NZD if dairy and meat exports improve. New Zealand's Q1 inflation rate quarter-over-quarter is due at 18:45 ET on April 20, expected at 0.8% compared to 0.6% prior, potentially shaping RBNZ policy amid persistent cost pressures. Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for April arrives at 19:00 ET on April 22, after 49.8 previously, providing clues on industrial output linked to iron ore and coal.
The services PMI flash, following 46.3 last, will assess sectors like tourism and retail. These events occur against China demand uncertainties, vital for ANZ commodity and agricultural exports, with surprises possibly influencing AUD and NZD movements.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's February inflation cooled slightly, offering limited relief but sustaining RBA vigilance on housing and wage-driven pressures. New Zealand's trade position faces challenges from dairy export volatility, influenced by Asian market fluctuations. Energy vulnerabilities persist, as illustrated by the Geelong refinery fire, highlighting Australia's exposure to global oil shortages and reliance on South-East Asian supplies.
