ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AUD Gains on RBA Hike Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,766.40 | -0.23% |
| NZX 50 | 12,764.40 | -0.86% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.54% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.25% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | -0.10% |
| BHP | 55.66 | -0.89% |
| Gold | 4,610.40 | -1.39% |
| Brent Crude | 104.39 | -3.55% |
| Bitcoin | 76,370.51 | -1.29% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.90% | +2.98% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia Core CPI YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY % Change: -8 (2026-03-01) | Range: -22–13 | Trend(6pt): 13,-16,-20,-5,-7,-8
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0 | 1.20 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.70 | 4.70 | 17:30 |
| Quarterly Inflation Rate Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.60 | 1.40 | 17:30 |
| Quarterly Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 4.10 | 17:30 |
| Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 17:30 |
| Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 3.50 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.40 | 17:30 |
| RBNZ Gov Breman Speech | - | - | 17:30 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 32.50 | - | 17:00 |
- Australian inflation data looms large, with consensus pointing to accelerating price pressures amid energy surges.
- AUD strengthens on heightened RBA rate hike expectations, while equities dip on global risk-off sentiment.
- RBNZ Governor speech and NZ business confidence data highlight diverging ANZ policy paths.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian equities softened as the ASX 200 closed down 0.23% at 8,766.40, pressured by declines in mining giants like BHP, which fell 0.89% to 55.66 amid weaker commodity prices. New Zealand's NZX 50 dropped 0.86% to 12,764.40, reflecting broader caution in dairy and tourism sectors. The AUD/USD pair advanced 0.54% to 0.72, buoyed by rising RBA hike bets from surging energy costs, while NZD/USD edged up 0.25% to 0.59.
Cross-rate AUD/NZD slipped 0.10% to 1.22, underscoring AUD's relative strength. Australian 10-year government yields climbed 2.98% to 4.90%, signaling inflation concerns, whereas New Zealand's short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%. Commodity-linked moves included gold down 1.39% to 4,610.40 and Brent crude off 3.55% to 104.39, impacting Australia's export outlook.
No major data releases occurred in either Australia or New Zealand, leaving markets to digest global energy disruptions and trade developments.
The Day Ahead
Australia's suite of inflation indicators releases at 17:30 ET, including monthly CPI expected at 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY, alongside quarterly measures like trimmed mean CPI at 0.9% QoQ. Consensus forecasts point to upward pressure from energy prices, potentially locking in RBA hike expectations. New Zealand features RBNZ Governor Breman's speech at 17:30 ET, which could signal policy stance amid global uncertainties.
ANZ Business Confidence for New Zealand follows at 17:00 ET on April 29, with prior reading at 32.5 offering insights into post-FTA sentiment. These events may drive volatility in AUD and NZD, especially if inflation surprises higher in Australia. Markets will watch for any divergence in central bank rhetoric between the RBA and RBNZ.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's commodity exports face headwinds from volatile energy markets, with Brent crude's decline pressuring LNG revenues despite strong China linkages. New Zealand's new FTA with India eliminates tariffs on lamb and wool, boosting agricultural exports but excluding dairy, which could limit gains in that key sector. (cont...)
