ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU Housing Weakens, Sentiment Edges Up
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,670.70 | -0.36% |
| NZX 50 | 13,063.06 | -0.13% |
| AUD/USD | 0.73 | +0.14% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.49% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | -0.10% |
| BHP | 61.70 | +3.21% |
| Gold | 4,695.00 | +0.37% |
| Brent Crude | 105.89 | -1.74% |
| Bitcoin | 79,648.72 | -1.03% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.90% | +2.98% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -29 | - | -24 |
| 2026-27 Federal Budget | - | - | - |
| Home Loans Quarter-over-Quarter | 9.40 | - | -4.30 |
| Investment Lending for Homes | 8.20 | - | -3 |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.9 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.135–4.9 | Trend(6pt): 1.531,3.361,4.633,4.313,4.758,4.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business NZ PMI | 53.20 | - | 18:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -12.50 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.10 | - | 20:30 |
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 698m | - | 18:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.30 | - | 19:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 50.70 | - | 19:00 |
- NAB Business Confidence improved to -24, hinting at modest recovery amid easing inflation.
- Home loans and investment lending fell sharply, signaling housing market strains.
- Markets mixed: ASX 200 down 0.36%, AUD/USD up 0.14% on gold strength.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian NAB Business Confidence Index improved to -24 from -29, reflecting a slight uptick in sentiment despite economic challenges. The 2026-27 Federal Budget was released, outlining fiscal measures to support growth, though market impact was limited without immediate surplus or deficit details. Australian home loans declined 4.3% quarter-over-quarter from a prior 9.4% gain, highlighting weakness in the housing sector due to elevated interest rates.
Investment lending for homes dropped 3.0% from 8.2%, indicating reduced property demand. No significant New Zealand data emerged, keeping attention on Australian releases. The ASX 200 fell 0.36% to 8,670.70, weighed by broader market caution despite BHP's 3.21% gain to 61.70 on commodity optimism.
The NZX 50 dipped 0.13% to 13,063.06 in light volume. AUD/USD rose 0.14% to 0.73, buoyed by gold's 0.37% increase to 4,695.00, while NZD/USD declined 0.49% to 0.59, pressured by global factors. AUD/NZD eased 0.10% to 1.21.
Brent crude dropped 1.74% to 105.89, and Bitcoin fell 1.03% to 79,648.72.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI releases at 18:30 ET on May 14, with prior at 53.2; a decline could indicate manufacturing slowdown. Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index are due at 20:30 ET on May 18, following -12.5% and 80.1, offering household spending insights. RBA Meeting Minutes arrive at 21:30 ET on May 18, providing policy details amid inflation trends.
New Zealand's Trade Balance follows at 18:45 ET on May 20, after a 698 million surplus, key for exports. Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash readings are set for 19:00 ET on May 20, with priors at 51.3 and 50.7, assessing Q2 momentum. These could influence RBNZ and RBA rate expectations, particularly with commodity ties to China.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's inflation eased to 4.3% in May 2026 from 4.6%, led by softening fuel prices, though still above the RBA's 2-3% target. Housing remains pressured, with Australian home loans down 4.3% and investment lending off 3.0%, reflecting affordability issues from tight policy. <i>↓ p.2</i>
