ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU Loans Plunge, Yields Spike
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,630.40 | -0.46% |
| NZX 50 | 13,025.07 | -0.29% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | -0.21% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.64% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | +0.41% |
| BHP | 62.15 | +1.02% |
| Gold | 4,662.40 | -0.75% |
| Brent Crude | 106.31 | +0.64% |
| Bitcoin | 81,500.99 | +2.81% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.90% | +2.98% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Loans Quarter-over-Quarter | 9.40 | - | -4.30 |
| Investment Lending for Homes | 8.20 | - | -3 |
ASX 200 vs AUD/USD | Type: market_hloc | ASX 200: 8630 (2026-05-13) | Range: 8366–9199 | Trend(5pt): 8967,8599,8461,8844,8630 | AUD/USD: 0.7222 (2026-05-14) | Range: 0.6846–0.7246 | Trend(5pt): 0.707,0.7069,0.6921,0.7158,0.7222
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business NZ PMI | 53.20 | - | 18:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -12.50 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.10 | - | 20:30 |
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 698m | - | 18:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.30 | - | 19:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 50.70 | - | 19:00 |
| Employment Change | 17,900 | - | 21:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 52,500 | - | 21:30 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.30 | - | 21:30 |
- Australian home loans drop 4.3% QoQ, investment lending -3%, cooling housing momentum.
- ASX 200, NZX 50 dip amid rate fears; AU 10Y yield surges to 4.90%.
- AUD/NZD rises to 1.22 as NZD weakens sharply vs USD.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian home loans fell 4.3% quarter-over-quarter on May 12 (prior 9.4%), while investment lending for homes dropped 3.0% (prior 8.2%), pointing to a sharp slowdown in housing demand amid high rates. The ASX 200 closed at 8,630.40, down 0.46%, pressured by CSL profit warnings and geopolitical jitters. NZX 50 slipped 0.29% to 13,025.07, tracking regional caution.
AUD/USD eased 0.21% to 0.72, while NZD/USD tumbled 0.64% to 0.59, lifting AUD/NZD 0.41% to 1.22. BHP gained 1.02% to 62.15 despite broader mining drags. Australia 10Y government yield spiked 2.98% to 4.90%, reflecting inflation persistence.
NZ short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%, signaling easing bets.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI releases at 18:30 ET today, with prior at 53.2; a dip could reinforce RBNZ cut expectations. Australia sees Westpac Consumer Confidence (change and index) on May 18 at 20:30 ET, tracking prior -12.5 and 80.1. RBA Meeting Minutes follow at 21:30 ET that day, pivotal for rate path clues.
Flash S&P Global PMIs (manufacturing/services) hit May 20 at 19:00 ET (priors 51.3/50.7). Employment data, including change (prior 17.9k), full-time change (52.5k), and unemployment rate (4.3%), due May 20 at 21:30 ET. NZ Trade Balance on May 20 at 18:45 ET (prior NZ$698m surplus).
Other Economic Notes
Australia's May inflation eased to 4.3% y/y from 4.6%, with fuel moderation offering RBA some relief, though core pressures linger. Housing remains vulnerable, with yesterday's loan slump underscoring rate sensitivity in a market tied to construction and immigration. Commodity supports hold: BHP up, Brent at 106.31 (+0.64%), but gold dipped to 4,662.40 (-0.75%).
NZ dairy and tourism face China slowdown risks, amplifying trade balance focus.
Global Macro News
Hot US PPI offset RBNZ cut hopes, pressuring NZD/USD flat after volatility. US CPI strength similarly weighed on NZD, with RBNZ inflation survey pending. China's infrastructure signals lifted iron ore in prior sessions, bolstering AU exports, but ASX mining drags persist amid global concerns.
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