ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Holds as Australia CPI Data Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,657.00 | +0.41% |
| NZX 50 | 12,970.28 | -0.16% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.43% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.06% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | +0.47% |
| BHP | 59.75 | +1.10% |
| Gold | 4,523.20 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 100.21 | -3.22% |
| Bitcoin | 77,369.98 | +0.51% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.96% | +0.69% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
AU 10Y Yield vs NZ Short Rates | Type: macro_line | AU 10Y %: 4.96 (2026-04-01) | Range: 1.135–4.96 | Trend(6pt): 1.531,3.361,4.633,4.313,4.758,4.96
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | -0.10 | 0.90 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.10 | 0.60 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.60 | 4.40 | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.40 | 21:30 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 22:00 |
| RBNZ Press Conference | - | - | 23:00 |
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | 21:30 |
| Budget 2026 | - | - | 22:00 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | -10.60 | - | 21:00 |
- RBNZ set to hold OCR at 2.25% with economy cooling
- Australia inflation prints eyed after weak jobs data
- AUD rises to 0.72 on risk appetite despite RBA pause bets
Yesterday's Recap
Markets closed mixed on 24 May with no major ANZ data releases. The ASX 200 advanced 0.41% to 8,657 while the NZX 50 slipped 0.16% to 12,970.28. AUD/USD climbed 0.43% to 0.72 and AUD/NZD gained 0.47% to 1.22.
Australia 10-year yields rose 0.69% to 4.96% as traders unwound prior RBA hike bets following soft employment prints. NZ short-term rates fell sharply to 4.33%. BHP shares lifted 1.10% to 59.75 on firmer iron-ore futures.
Brent crude dropped 3.22% to 100.21 amid softer global demand signals. Gold held near 4,523.20 with minimal movement while Bitcoin edged 0.51% higher. The moves reflected fading rate-hike expectations in Australia after recent jobs weakness and a cautious stance priced into New Zealand policy.
The Day Ahead
Australia releases Q1 construction work done, headline CPI and RBA trimmed-mean measures on 26 May. The RBNZ announces its policy decision at 2.25% the same day followed by a press conference. The RBA Bulletin appears on 27 May.
New Zealand delivers its 2026 Budget on 27 May. ANZ Business Confidence for New Zealand prints on 28 May. No auctions are scheduled in either market.
Markets will focus on whether trimmed-mean CPI confirms the expected 3.4% y/y reading and whether the RBNZ signals any shift from its current data-dependent approach.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity exports remain sensitive to Chinese steel demand and iron-ore restocking cycles. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors continue to underpin NZD resilience despite slower housing credit growth. Both economies face contained wage pressures that reduce near-term tightening risks.
Recent Australian jobs weakness has shifted market pricing toward an extended RBA pause. China trade data due later this week will set the tone for AUD and NZD terms-of-trade outlooks. Construction work done and inflation prints will clarify whether domestic demand is cooling enough to keep the RBA on hold through mid-year.
