ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Set to Hold as Australia CPI Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,692.00 | +0.40% |
| NZX 50 | 13,069.74 | +0.77% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.19% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | -0.55% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23 | +0.75% |
| BHP | 60.35 | +0.38% |
| Gold | 4,507.00 | -0.31% |
| Brent Crude | 96.53 | -6.77% |
| Bitcoin | 75,950.52 | -1.72% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.96% | +0.69% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia Consumer Confidence | Type: macro_line | Confidence Index: -20 (2026-04-01) | Range: -22–9 | Trend(6pt): 7,-19,-18,-7,-10,-20
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | -0.10 | 0.90 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.10 | 0.60 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.60 | 4.40 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.40 | 17:30 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 18:00 |
| RBNZ Press Conference | - | - | 19:00 |
| Budget 2026 | - | - | 18:00 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | -10.60 | - | 17:00 |
- RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% with hawkish tone while Australia releases Q1 inflation and construction figures today.
- ASX 200 rose 0.40% to 8,692 and NZX 50 gained 0.77% to 13,069.74 amid improved risk appetite.
- AUD/USD climbed to 0.72 while NZD/USD fell to 0.58, widening AUD/NZD to 1.23 on diverging policy signals.
Yesterday's Recap
Markets priced a steady RBNZ outcome and focused on incoming Australian inflation prints. The ASX 200 advanced 0.40% to close at 8,692 while the NZX 50 rose 0.77% to 13,069.74. AUD/USD lifted 0.19% to 0.72 as risk sentiment improved, whereas NZD/USD slipped 0.55% to 0.58.
Australia 10Y yields rose 0.69% to 4.96% after bets on near-term RBA hikes eased. Brent crude fell 6.77% to 96.53, weighing on commodity-linked sentiment. BHP added 0.38% to 60.35, tracking firmer iron-ore prices.
No major data releases occurred in either country on 25 May. Hopes for a Middle East de-escalation supported the Australian dollar despite softer RBA hike odds. Global equity gains lifted risk-sensitive currencies including the AUD.
The Day Ahead
Australia publishes Q1 construction work done, headline CPI and RBA trimmed-mean measures at 17:30 AEST, all expected to show cooling momentum. The RBNZ announces its policy decision at 18:00 NZST and is projected to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. Governor Orr will hold a press conference immediately afterward.
New Zealand releases its 2026 Budget the following evening. The RBA Bulletin and a speech by board member Hewson are also scheduled for 27 May. Markets continue to monitor any fiscal slippage in Canberra that could affect term-premium dynamics.
Other Economic Notes
Australia remains exposed to China demand for iron ore and LNG, with BHP serving as the key equity proxy. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors continue to drive external balances and housing credit growth. Both economies face persistent services inflation that complicates the return to 2% targets.
Government bond demand has increased as fiscal concerns and rate-hike bets recede in Australia. Housing-market linkages to policy rates stay critical for household spending in both countries. China’s growth trajectory remains the dominant external driver for Australian commodity exports.
New Zealand’s smaller open economy leaves the NZD more sensitive to global risk sentiment than the AUD.
