ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Holds at 2.25%, AU CPI Cools to 4.2%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,657.80 | -0.39% |
| NZX 50 | 13,227.81 | +1.21% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.36% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.68% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | -1.03% |
| BHP | 61.28 | +1.54% |
| Gold | 4,484.30 | -0.36% |
| Brent Crude | 93.04 | -6.57% |
| Bitcoin | 74,923.04 | -1.19% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.96% | +0.69% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.20 | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| RBNZ Press Conference | - | - | - |
| RBA Hewson Speech | - | - | - |
Australia 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.96 (2026-04-01) | Range: 1.135–4.96 | Trend(6pt): 1.531,3.361,4.633,4.313,4.758,4.96
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | 17:30 |
| Budget 2026 | - | - | 18:00 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | -10.60 | - | 17:00 |
- Australian Q1 inflation eased to 4.2% y/y while construction work done surged 3.4% q/q, tempering RBA hike odds.
- RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and struck a hawkish tone, supporting NZD outperformance versus AUD.
- ASX 200 fell 0.39% while NZX 50 rose 1.21%; AUD/USD slipped to 0.71 and NZD/USD gained to 0.59.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian data showed Construction Work Done rising 3.4% q/q against a 0.8% consensus, while headline CPI printed 0.4% m/m and 4.2% y/y, both below expectations. RBA trimmed-mean measures held steady at 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y. The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% and delivered a hawkish press conference that reinforced its inflation-targeting resolve.
The RBA Cash Rate remains 4.10%. Equity markets diverged with the ASX 200 declining 0.39% to 8,657.80 while the NZX 50 advanced 1.21% to 13,227.81. AUD/USD fell 0.36% to 0.71 and NZD/USD rose 0.68% to 0.59, narrowing AUD/NZD by 1.03% to 1.21.
Australian 10-year yields climbed 0.69% to 4.96% while NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%.
The Day Ahead
The RBA will release its monthly Bulletin at 17:30 AEST, providing fresh insight into staff views on inflation persistence. New Zealand presents its Budget 2026 at 18:00 NZST, with fiscal settings likely to influence RBNZ’s medium-term forecasts. ANZ Business Confidence for May is due tomorrow morning in New Zealand.
Markets will also monitor any follow-up commentary from RBA Governor Bullock or Deputy Governor Hauser. China-related commodity flows remain the dominant external driver for both AUD and NZD.
Other Economic Notes
Softer Australian headline inflation alongside resilient construction activity highlights the RBA’s ongoing policy dilemma between growth and price stability. New Zealand’s terms-of-trade and dairy price trends continue to shape NZD valuation and RBNZ easing expectations. Housing-market linkages remain critical in both economies, with rate-sensitive sectors showing divergent momentum after recent policy divergence.
China demand signals for iron ore and coal will dictate Australian export revenues and mining equity performance.
Global Macro News
Brent crude fell 6.57% to $93.04, easing imported inflation pressures for both Australia and New Zealand. Gold declined 0.36% to $4,484.30, trimming safe-haven support for AUD. <i>↓ p.2</i>
