ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Hawkish Hold Lifts NZD as AU CPI Cools
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,717.70 | +0.69% |
| NZX 50 | 13,206.11 | -0.16% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | -0.10% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +1.52% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | -1.61% |
| BHP | 60.55 | -1.19% |
| Gold | 4,530.30 | +1.86% |
| Brent Crude | 93.07 | -1.29% |
| Bitcoin | 73,309.80 | -1.39% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.96% | +0.69% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.20 | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| RBNZ Press Conference | - | - | - |
| RBA Hewson Speech | - | - | - |
NZD/USD Exchange Rate | Type: macro_line | NZD per USD: 0.5855 (2026-05-22) | Range: 0.5536–0.7257 | Trend(6pt): 0.7257,0.6161,0.609,0.5716,0.5857,0.5855
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | -10.60 | - | 17:00 |
- RBNZ holds cash rate at 2.25% with hawkish tone, lifting NZD
- Australian CPI eases to 4.2% YoY while construction surges 3.4% QoQ
- ASX 200 gains 0.69% as NZX 50 slips 0.16% amid commodity swings
Yesterday's Recap
Australian Q1 construction work done jumped 3.4% QoQ, far above the 0.8% consensus, while headline CPI cooled to 0.4% MoM and 4.2% YoY against expectations of 0.6% and 4.4%. The RBA trimmed-mean measure printed 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, in line with forecasts. The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% and delivered a hawkish press conference that flagged rising mortgage rates ahead.
The ASX 200 rose 0.69% to 8,717.70 while the NZX 50 fell 0.16% to 13,206.11. AUD/USD eased 0.10% to 0.72 as NZD/USD surged 1.52% to 0.59, narrowing AUD/NZD by 1.61% to 1.21. Gold climbed 1.86% to 4,530.30 while Brent crude dropped 1.29% to 93.07; the Australian 10-year yield rose 0.69% to 4.96%.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence is due at 17:00 ET and will provide the first read on firm sentiment after the RBNZ’s hawkish hold. No high-impact Australian data are scheduled. Markets will monitor any follow-up comments from RBA officials, including the scheduled Hewson speech.
Offshore drivers such as Chinese steel-mill restocking and Middle East tensions are expected to dominate AUD and NZD flows.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity-export model remains tightly linked to Chinese steel and energy demand, with BHP serving as the key sentiment bellwether. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors continue to underpin the current-account balance and NZD valuation. Cooling Australian inflation reduces the risk of further RBA tightening but leaves the cash rate at 4.10% for an extended period.
Housing-market resilience in both countries keeps household-spending forecasts anchored despite higher borrowing costs.
Global Macro News
Reduced odds of near-term RBA hikes have weighed on the Australian dollar against the yen and prompted intervention-watch commentary. Escalating Middle East tensions lifted safe-haven gold while pressuring Brent crude lower. A softer US dollar provided a tailwind for the NZD after the RBNZ’s hawkish hold.
Investors continue to price one final RBA tightening before year-end, though softer CPI prints have tempered those bets. China’s blast-furnace utilisation data remain the dominant external driver for Australian iron-ore and LNG revenues. Global bond yields edged higher, compressing carry appeal for both AUD and NZD positions.
