ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Australian GDP Slows to 0.3%, RBA Pause Bets Rise
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,724.40 | -0.06% |
| NZX 50 | 13,115.08 | -0.42% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.48% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -1.25% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.29% |
| BHP | 64.91 | +2.43% |
| Gold | 4,459.20 | -0.67% |
| Brent Crude | 98.04 | +2.13% |
| Bitcoin | 64,894.92 | -2.71% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.96% | +0.69% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Harper Speech | - | - | - |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -10.50 | -1.50 | -3.40 |
| Company Gross Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | 5.90 | - | -1.30 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -24.40 | - | -26.50 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.96 (2026-04-01) | Range: 1.135–4.96 | Trend(6pt): 1.254,3.747,4.578,4.481,4.926,4.96
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -1,841m | -1,610m | 17:30 |
| RBA Gov Bullock Speech | - | - | 21:00 |
| RBA Kent Speech | - | - | 21:00 |
| RBA Hauser Speech | - | - | 20:30 |
- Australian Q1 GDP rose just 0.3% QoQ versus 0.5% consensus, with annual growth at 2.5%.
- AUD/USD fell 0.48% to 0.71 while ASX 200 slipped 0.06% to 8,724.40 on soft data.
- RBA holds cash rate at 4.10% as speeches by Bullock and Kent loom amid cooling growth.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian GDP growth slowed to 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 from 0.9% prior, missing the 0.5% consensus and lifting annual growth only to 2.5%. Building permits fell 3.4% month-over-month while company gross profits contracted 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. The Ai Group Industry Index deteriorated to -26.5.
Markets reacted with the ASX 200 edging down 0.06% to 8,724.40 and the NZX 50 declining 0.42% to 13,115.08. AUD/USD dropped 0.48% to 0.71 and NZD/USD fell 1.25% to 0.59. The Australia 10-year government yield rose 0.69% to 4.96% while the NZ short-term rate eased 9.60% to 4.33%.
BHP shares gained 2.43% to 64.91 on firmer iron-ore prices.
The Day Ahead
Australia releases its trade balance at 17:30 ET with consensus pointing to a narrower deficit of A$1.61 billion. RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent both speak at 21:00 ET, likely addressing inflation persistence flagged by Harper yesterday. Markets will parse any signals on the June policy outlook after today's soft GDP print.
No New Zealand data releases are scheduled. Focus remains on how RBA officials balance the 4.10% cash rate against weakening domestic demand.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's commodity export base faces mixed signals as iron-ore prices hold firm on China stimulus hopes while import surges widen the trade gap. Housing market linkages remain critical, with rent hikes and mortgage costs pressuring household spending after successive rate rises. Savings rates have declined alongside the GDP slowdown, limiting buffers for further tightening.
New Zealand's dairy-driven economy shows parallel softening in retail sales, supporting an earlier RBNZ easing path than the RBA.
Global Macro News
Yen weakness past 160 per dollar has revived intervention risks and supported safe-haven flows into the US dollar, pressuring AUD/JPY. Brent crude rose 2.13% to 98.04 amid Gulf tensions, lifting Australia's terms of trade. Gold eased 0.67% to 4,459.20 despite broader risk-off sentiment.
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