RBA Holds as Inflation Eases, Jobs Rebound

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
ASX 200	8,764.20	+0.18%
NZX 50	13,495.24	+0.02%
AUD/USD	0.69	+0.01%
NZD/USD	0.56	-0.01%
AUD/NZD	1.22	+0.00%
BHP	58.99	+0.80%
Gold	4,096.30	+1.63%
Brent Crude	72.60	-3.53%
Bitcoin	59,410.74	-0.88%
Australia 10Y Govt Yield	4.99%	+0.42%
NZ Short-term Rate	4.33%	-9.60%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	50.70	-	51.20
S&P Global Services PMI Flash	48.70	-	49.90
Inflation Rate Month-over-Month	0.40	-0.30	-0.70
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	4.20	4.40	4
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month	0.30	0.30	0.40
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year	3.40	3.50	3.60
RBA Hauser Speech	-	-	-
Employment Change	-40,700	30,000	40,300
Full-Time Employment Change	-21,700	-	5,200
Headline Unemployment Rate	4.50	4.40	4.40

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Australian inflation eased more than expected with headline YoY at 4.0% and MoM at -0.7%, while trimmed mean rose to 3.6% YoY.
Employment surged 40,300 in Australia, beating consensus, driving unemployment down to 4.4%.
ASX 200 gained 0.18% and AUD/USD rose to 0.69 amid mixed commodity moves and RBA hold signals.

Yesterday's Recap

Australian S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash rose to 51.2 and services PMI improved to 49.9, pointing to modest expansion. Inflation data showed headline YoY falling to 4.0% against 4.4% consensus while MoM printed -0.7%, though RBA trimmed mean CPI edged up to 3.6% YoY. Employment change beat forecasts with a 40,300 gain and unemployment held at 4.4%.

RBA Governor Bullock and Hauser speeches reinforced data-dependent policy. ASX 200 advanced 0.18% to 8,764.20 while AUD/USD lifted 0.01% to 0.69. NZX 50 edged 0.02% higher and NZD/USD slipped 0.01% to 0.56.

Gold rose 1.63% and Brent crude fell 3.53%, reflecting softer energy prices. Australia's commodity exports continue to anchor the external balance, with iron ore and gold providing support despite softer Brent prices. Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to rate paths, with cooling inflation potentially easing pressure on mortgage holders.

China demand outlook stays the dominant external variable for Australian miners including BHP and New Zealand dairy exporters. Broader risk-off moves lifted the US dollar and capped AUD/NZD gains near 1.22. US inflation data and potential Fed hike risks weighed on risk assets and supported the dollar, pressuring AUD/USD.

IMF commentary highlighted the dollar-centered global economy, limiting upside for commodity currencies. Lower crude prices eased some rate-hike concerns but added to volatility in energy-linked trades. Yen intervention fears kept Asian FX markets cautious and indirectly supported safe-haven flows into gold.

New Zealand dollar faces headwinds from subdued growth and RBNZ hold expectations. Overall global backdrop points to continued caution for ANZ currencies in the third quarter.

The Day Ahead

RBA Governor Bullock delivers a high-impact speech today that markets will parse for any shift in guidance. No major data releases are scheduled for Australia or New Zealand over the next two days. Focus will remain on external drivers including China PMI prints and global commodity trends.

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The Day Ahead (continued)

Bond auctions and any follow-up central bank commentary could influence yield curves. AUD and NZD will track risk sentiment and US dollar moves closely.

Other Economic Notes

Australia’s commodity exports continue to anchor the external balance, with iron ore and gold providing support despite softer Brent prices. Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to rate paths, with cooling inflation potentially easing pressure on mortgage holders. China demand outlook stays the dominant external variable for Australian miners including BHP and New Zealand dairy exporters.

Broader risk-off moves lifted the US dollar and capped AUD/NZD gains near 1.22.

Global Macro News

US inflation data and potential Fed hike risks weighed on risk assets and supported the dollar, pressuring AUD/USD. IMF commentary highlighted the dollar-centered global economy, limiting upside for commodity currencies. Lower crude prices eased some rate-hike concerns but added to volatility in energy-linked trades.

Yen intervention fears kept Asian FX markets cautious and indirectly supported safe-haven flows into gold. New Zealand dollar faces headwinds from subdued growth and RBNZ hold expectations. Overall global backdrop points to continued caution for ANZ currencies in the third quarter.

ANZ Central Banks Watch

The RBA held the cash rate at 4.31% as cooler headline inflation and resilient employment reduced near-term easing pressure. Governor Bullock’s speech today is expected to reiterate data dependence without committing to a rate path. RBNZ is firmly priced for a hold at its July meeting, with rate-hike expectations having faded after recent data.

The committee views current policy as appropriate amid subdued growth and stable inflation. Divergence remains limited, though RBNZ has shown greater willingness to adjust aggressively when conditions shift. Both banks continue to monitor housing market linkages and services inflation closely.

ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)