ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Australia CPI Undershoots, RBA Hike Bets Fade
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,038.60 | +1.01% |
| NZX 50 | 13,762.78 | -1.53% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | +0.86% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +1.73% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | -0.86% |
| BHP | 59.15 | -1.71% |
| Gold | 4,171.00 | +3.38% |
| Brent Crude | 88.91 | -2.02% |
| Bitcoin | 64,790.89 | +1.38% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speech | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4 | 4 | 3.80 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| RBA Hunter Speech | - | - | - |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 36.60 | - | 56.10 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -1.60 | -1 | 7.20 |
Aus 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.135–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.135,3.919,4.187,4.423,4.969,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.40 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
- Australian CPI YoY eased to 3.8% versus 4.0% consensus, trimming RBA hike odds.
- NZ ANZ Business Confidence surged to 56.1 from 36.6, signalling stronger sentiment.
- ASX 200 rose 1.01% while NZX 50 fell 1.53% amid divergent commodity and rate signals.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian June-quarter inflation data surprised to the downside on 28 July, with headline CPI rising 3.8% YoY against a 4.0% consensus and prior 4.0% print. The trimmed-mean measure held at 3.6% YoY while the monthly pace softened to -0.1%. Markets interpreted the cooler reading as reducing the chance of an August RBA tightening.
Building permits jumped 7.2% MoM, reversing the prior -1.6% decline and pointing to resilient construction activity. In New Zealand, ANZ Business Confidence climbed sharply to 56.1 from 36.6, reflecting improved business optimism. RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter both spoke, reiterating data dependence without shifting the hawkish tilt.
Equity markets diverged as the ASX 200 advanced 1.01% to 9,038.60 on firmer commodity prices while the NZX 50 declined 1.53% to 13,762.78. AUD/USD climbed 0.86% to 0.70 and NZD/USD gained 1.73% to 0.59, narrowing AUD/NZD by 0.86%. Gold rose 3.38% to 4,171 while Brent crude fell 2.02% to 88.91, supporting mining names but pressuring energy equities.
The Day Ahead
Australian PPI quarter-over-quarter data due at 17:30 ET will provide further insight into upstream price pressures after yesterday’s CPI undershoot. No major New Zealand releases are scheduled, leaving focus on domestic data follow-through. Traders will monitor any follow-up comments from RBA officials for clues on the August meeting.
Commodity price moves, especially iron ore and gold, remain key external drivers for both currencies. Markets also await any signals from China’s policy stance given its dominant trade links with Australia. The RBA cash rate stays at 4.35% while the RBNZ OCR holds at 2.50%, with both banks stressing data dependence amid mixed inflation prints.
Other Economic Notes
Softer Australian inflation has already prompted traders to scale back expectations for further RBA tightening at the 4.35% cash rate. New Zealand’s sharper improvement in business confidence highlights a potential divergence in domestic momentum between the two economies. Commodity revenues, led by iron ore and gold, continue to underpin Australia’s terms of trade and support the AUD.
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